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Kyle Busch overcome what many people thought was unthinkable after a hard Daytona crash. Busch was sidelined all the way to the all-star in mid-May. Not only Busch return to the racetrack, but he scored 4 wins before the chase started. And then ended the season with a Cup Series Championship. So the question is can he repeat in 2016? As a long time Kyle Busch fan, I think he definitely can and sure hope he does makes it back-to-back championships. However, as an analysis I think it unrealistic for Kyle to win the championship in 2016. Even though I believe he will come very close! I personally believe this current chase is setup to unintentionally not allow repeat champions in back to back seasons. In my opinion it quite difficult to repeat with how the chase set up now. There is a lot of luck involved. One bad race at the wrong time and you are history. As for 2016 as whole, I expect about 3-4 wins with about 15-22Top 5 finishes for Kyle.
Most like his JGR teammates, I think Kyle will be at his strongest on the intermediate racetracks. Kyle always have had the horsepower advantage and always seems to have something for the leaders before the checkers wave. I don't think 2016 will be any different! Last season on the intermediate racetracks (12 races), he compiled 12.5 average finish with 8.4 average running position and 109.2 driver rating. His best intermediate racetracks are Cali and Kentucky by far. Followed by Texas in third. I would consider Cali as his best racetrack honestly. He have made enough starts (with least 10 starts) there that I think it is his best intermediate racetrack by a large margin. He missed last season race, but he been very good there from a career standpoint. Last time he raced there, he went to victory lane. He have went to victory lane in his previous two races at Cali (2014 and 2013). In fact, he have knocked off 4 straight top 3 finishes at this track. I would consider Kentucky as Kyle very best racetrack on the schedule, however there only limited number of races there. So I will hold back a few years before making that claim. However his stats at Kentucky in just 5 races are extremely impressive. In 5 races, he have compiled 3.8 average finish with 4 Top 5 finishes. Including two wins. In those 5 races, he have knocked off 3 Top 2 finishes. Including in each of the past two seasons. Digging further into his stats, he have knocked off 3 straight Top 5 finishes, dating back to the 2013 season. His lone non-top 10 finish was back in 2012, where he finished 10th. He led 118 laps in that event. Kyle have led 118 or more laps in 3 of his 5 races at Kentucky. Yeah I would say he pretty damn good at Kentucky!
Short tracks will be a major strength for Kyle in 2016 and I fully expect him to a threat every time he is on the racetrack. Last season on the shorts (3 races), he compiled 5.0 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 117.7 driver rating. He missed half of the races in 2015, but he was very strong last season on the short tracks in the races he was apart of. I would consider Richmond as his best racetrack among the short tracks. Over the previous two seasons (3 races), he have compiled 6.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 101.6 driver rating. Last season in his lone start at Richmond, he finished 2nd to Matt Kenseth, who was simply dominated from drop of the green. Busch probably had one of the few cars who could do anything with him though. Busch have knocked off 2 top 3 finishes over his past previous 3 races. Even though he have finished 16th or worse in 4 of his previous 6 races overall. There reason to be positive about Busch at Richmond. He always been very good at Richmond and I think he will least sweep the top 10 in 2016. Dating back to the 2010 season (12 races), he have knocked off 8 Top 6 finishes. Including 6 Top 3 finishes, including those two top 3 finishes over his 3 previous races at the racetrack. In 21 career starts, he have compiled 14 Top 5 finishes and 15 Top 10 finishes. In 7 races he didn't finish inside the top 5, he only once finished better than 15th. So he basically top 5 or bust. More often than not, he is a top 5 finisher though.
His second best short track is Bristol, but he haven't performed up the standards we are use to lately though. Over his past 3 races at Bristol (2 seasons), he have compiled 24.3 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 98.4 driver rating. Last season at Bristol, he finished 8th in his alone start. In 2014, he had finishes of 36th and 29th. In spring of 2013, he finished 11th. Prior to those 4 races, he was very good. However majority of those races were held at ''old bristol'', so I don't think that is really relevant to discuss. Overall Busch have not gotten the finishes he have deserved at Bristol, however he ran very well last season here. He had a top 5 car for the event, but I believe he a penalty late in the race that cost him a lap. He was able to recover, but he never made it back to the event. Regardless, he was very strong for that entire event. I think he will rebound at Bristol in 2016 very nicely. He also have ran very well at Martinsville so far in his cup career. Over his past 3 races (2 seasons), he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. Last season he finished 5th in his lone start at Martinsville. Overall he have knocked 6 straight Top 15 finishes, dating back to the 2012 season. Dating back to the 2010 season, he have knocked off 6 Top 5 finishes and 9 Top 15 finishes. He haven't been to victory lane yet at Martinsville, however he have found plenty of success here. I think it only matter of time before he breaks out and finds victory lane.
The short flats will be another strong area for Busch in 2016. I expect him to be strong at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season on the shorter flats (3 races), he compiled 14.0 average finish with 10.7 average running position and 107.4 driver rating. Last season at New Hamsphire, he finished 37th 1st. In the July race, he started 4th and held off a hard charging Brad Keselowski for the win. In the September race, he was pretty good in that race. However he finished almost 40 laps down in 37th. Obviously he was better than 37th, but he got unlucky during that event. Over his past 4 New Hampshire races, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. Overall he have knocked off 8 Top 11 finishes over his past 12 races. Including 4 Top 2 finishes over his past 6 races. Prior to finishing 37th place last September, he have knocked off 5 straight top 8 finishes. He is one of the best drivers in the series at New Hampshire and that shouldn't change in 2016! At Phoenix over the past 2 seasons (3 races), he have compiled 15.7 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 96.3 driver rating. Last season he finished 4th in his lone race last season. Overall he have knocked off 9 Top 13 finishes over his past 12 races. He always been good at Phoenix and I don't think that will change anything soon.
Road Courses always been a really good type racetrack for Busch, but I have felt like in the past that his Sonoma's track record have held him from being considered elite. In 2015, he changed that and returned to victory lane at Sonoma. He have found much more success at Watkins Glenn though. I don't think there many drivers who there with better track record than Kyle Busch have at Watkin Glenn. Only a select few have compiled better stats than him. Last season on the road courses (2 races), he compiled 1.5 average finish with 7.0 average running position and 121.1 driver rating. Last season he won at Sonoma, after strong late restart to hold on off older brother Kurt. Then at Watkin Glenn, Kyle couldn't quite catch Penske Driver Logano and had to finish 2nd. He is much better at Watkins Glenn, then he is at Sonoma. He always been a very strong driver at WGI. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 20.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. He finished 2nd last season and was one of the strongest drivers throughout the event. In 2014, he didn't have a very good race. He started off fairly strong, but then he had a problem on pit road. Followed by an incident with Martin Truex Jr which pretty much screwed any chance of him having a respectably day. Overall 5 of his previous 6 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished 8th or better in. Half (3) of those 6 races have ended inside the top 3. Including 2 of his past 3 races at WGI. He have found much less success at Sonoma, even though he finally broke out of his Sonoma slump. Over the past two seasons (2 races), he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 89.3 driver rating. He finished 1st last season at Sonoma, but that was his first top 10 finish since his JGR road course debut in 2008 at Sonoma. Since he have only had one top 15 (2011), where he finished 11th. Otherwise, he have compiled 5 finishes of 17th or worse. 4 of those 5 races have ended in 22nd or worse. Hard to say which direction Busch is going at Sonoma, but hopefully it the right one with his 2nd win at the track recently.
Large flats will be solid spot for Busch in 2016, but I wouldn't bank on it to be a sure thing though. More so at Pocono, since he seems to be a bit inconsistent there at times. Last season at the larger flats (3 races), he compiled 10.3 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 108.9 driver rating. He won at Indy last season and finished 9th in the first Pocono race. He finished 21st in the second Pocono, after leading 21 laps early in the event. He been stronger at Indy than Pocono for awhile. Over his past 2 races at Indy (2 seasons), he have compiled 1.5 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 124.1 driver rating. Last season he went to victory lane and in 2014 he finished 2nd. I think it was only matter of time before Kyle found victory lane, after finishing 2nd in 2014 and sure enough he did in 2015. He been very good here for while now though. He have knocked off 6 straight top 10 finishes. Including 3 Top 2 finishes over his past 4 starts. Overall he have knocked off 10 Top 15 finishes in 11 races and 9 of those 10 Top 15 finishes have ended inside the top 10. Busch is one of the most underrated drivers in the series at Indy and I think he will only get better as he races more here! He haven't been so lucky at Pocono. He been alright at Pocono, but I wouldn't call it a walk in a park. He have gotten some quality finishes, but he seems to mix them with some poor finishes as well. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 81.2 driver rating. Over his past 12 Pocono races, he have compiled 6 Top 6 finishes and 5 finishes of 21st or worse. Including 2 of his past 3 races ending in 21st or worse (21st and 42nd). Like I mentioned earlier, he can be a bit inconsistent at Pocono. I would much rather use him at Indy than Pocono.
The plates aren't exactly what I would consider a strong spot for Kyle Busch. He definitely have the equipment to run well, but he often have found himself with a poor finish at both Daytona and Talladega. He been a bit better at Talladega than Daytona though. Over his past 3 races at Daytona (2 seasons), he have compiled 21.3 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 78.1 driver rating. At the moment, Kyle is in a pretty sizable slump at Daytona. He have gone 7 straight races (points paying) without an top 10 finish. His last top 10 finish was all the way back in 2011, when he sweep the top 10 that season. Prior finishing 8th and 5th in 2011, he last top 10 finishes were in 2008 when he swept the top 5 (1st, 5th). He been much better at Talladega than Daytona in terms of final finishing position . Over the past 3 races at Talladega (2 seasons), he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 21.0 average running position and 75.8 driver rating. That don't look too impressive, actually almost exactly the same as his Daytona's performance. Only difference is, he have 3 Top 12 finishes over his past 4 Talladega races. What really hurts his stats are at the 2014 October races where he finished 40th. Overall he have knocked off 5 Top 12 finishes over his past 7 races, dating back to the 2012 season. Over his past 11 races at Talladega, he have knocked off 6 Top 12 finishes. So overall he been pretty respectable, especially more recently. It hard to judge at driver at the plates in my opinion, I think it one of the most difficult things to do. There so much luck involved, honestly it probably better to not overanalyze past data. However I would probably avoid Kyle at Daytona, considering he is in a slump lately there with no top 10s since 2011.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Kyle Busch overcome what many people thought was unthinkable after a hard Daytona crash. Busch was sidelined all the way to the all-star in mid-May. Not only Busch return to the racetrack, but he scored 4 wins before the chase started. And then ended the season with a Cup Series Championship. So the question is can he repeat in 2016? As a long time Kyle Busch fan, I think he definitely can and sure hope he does makes it back-to-back championships. However, as an analysis I think it unrealistic for Kyle to win the championship in 2016. Even though I believe he will come very close! I personally believe this current chase is setup to unintentionally not allow repeat champions in back to back seasons. In my opinion it quite difficult to repeat with how the chase set up now. There is a lot of luck involved. One bad race at the wrong time and you are history. As for 2016 as whole, I expect about 3-4 wins with about 15-22Top 5 finishes for Kyle.
Most like his JGR teammates, I think Kyle will be at his strongest on the intermediate racetracks. Kyle always have had the horsepower advantage and always seems to have something for the leaders before the checkers wave. I don't think 2016 will be any different! Last season on the intermediate racetracks (12 races), he compiled 12.5 average finish with 8.4 average running position and 109.2 driver rating. His best intermediate racetracks are Cali and Kentucky by far. Followed by Texas in third. I would consider Cali as his best racetrack honestly. He have made enough starts (with least 10 starts) there that I think it is his best intermediate racetrack by a large margin. He missed last season race, but he been very good there from a career standpoint. Last time he raced there, he went to victory lane. He have went to victory lane in his previous two races at Cali (2014 and 2013). In fact, he have knocked off 4 straight top 3 finishes at this track. I would consider Kentucky as Kyle very best racetrack on the schedule, however there only limited number of races there. So I will hold back a few years before making that claim. However his stats at Kentucky in just 5 races are extremely impressive. In 5 races, he have compiled 3.8 average finish with 4 Top 5 finishes. Including two wins. In those 5 races, he have knocked off 3 Top 2 finishes. Including in each of the past two seasons. Digging further into his stats, he have knocked off 3 straight Top 5 finishes, dating back to the 2013 season. His lone non-top 10 finish was back in 2012, where he finished 10th. He led 118 laps in that event. Kyle have led 118 or more laps in 3 of his 5 races at Kentucky. Yeah I would say he pretty damn good at Kentucky!
Short tracks will be a major strength for Kyle in 2016 and I fully expect him to a threat every time he is on the racetrack. Last season on the shorts (3 races), he compiled 5.0 average finish with 5.7 average running position and 117.7 driver rating. He missed half of the races in 2015, but he was very strong last season on the short tracks in the races he was apart of. I would consider Richmond as his best racetrack among the short tracks. Over the previous two seasons (3 races), he have compiled 6.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 101.6 driver rating. Last season in his lone start at Richmond, he finished 2nd to Matt Kenseth, who was simply dominated from drop of the green. Busch probably had one of the few cars who could do anything with him though. Busch have knocked off 2 top 3 finishes over his past previous 3 races. Even though he have finished 16th or worse in 4 of his previous 6 races overall. There reason to be positive about Busch at Richmond. He always been very good at Richmond and I think he will least sweep the top 10 in 2016. Dating back to the 2010 season (12 races), he have knocked off 8 Top 6 finishes. Including 6 Top 3 finishes, including those two top 3 finishes over his 3 previous races at the racetrack. In 21 career starts, he have compiled 14 Top 5 finishes and 15 Top 10 finishes. In 7 races he didn't finish inside the top 5, he only once finished better than 15th. So he basically top 5 or bust. More often than not, he is a top 5 finisher though.
His second best short track is Bristol, but he haven't performed up the standards we are use to lately though. Over his past 3 races at Bristol (2 seasons), he have compiled 24.3 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 98.4 driver rating. Last season at Bristol, he finished 8th in his alone start. In 2014, he had finishes of 36th and 29th. In spring of 2013, he finished 11th. Prior to those 4 races, he was very good. However majority of those races were held at ''old bristol'', so I don't think that is really relevant to discuss. Overall Busch have not gotten the finishes he have deserved at Bristol, however he ran very well last season here. He had a top 5 car for the event, but I believe he a penalty late in the race that cost him a lap. He was able to recover, but he never made it back to the event. Regardless, he was very strong for that entire event. I think he will rebound at Bristol in 2016 very nicely. He also have ran very well at Martinsville so far in his cup career. Over his past 3 races (2 seasons), he have compiled 10.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 93.5 driver rating. Last season he finished 5th in his lone start at Martinsville. Overall he have knocked 6 straight Top 15 finishes, dating back to the 2012 season. Dating back to the 2010 season, he have knocked off 6 Top 5 finishes and 9 Top 15 finishes. He haven't been to victory lane yet at Martinsville, however he have found plenty of success here. I think it only matter of time before he breaks out and finds victory lane.
The short flats will be another strong area for Busch in 2016. I expect him to be strong at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season on the shorter flats (3 races), he compiled 14.0 average finish with 10.7 average running position and 107.4 driver rating. Last season at New Hamsphire, he finished 37th 1st. In the July race, he started 4th and held off a hard charging Brad Keselowski for the win. In the September race, he was pretty good in that race. However he finished almost 40 laps down in 37th. Obviously he was better than 37th, but he got unlucky during that event. Over his past 4 New Hampshire races, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. Overall he have knocked off 8 Top 11 finishes over his past 12 races. Including 4 Top 2 finishes over his past 6 races. Prior to finishing 37th place last September, he have knocked off 5 straight top 8 finishes. He is one of the best drivers in the series at New Hampshire and that shouldn't change in 2016! At Phoenix over the past 2 seasons (3 races), he have compiled 15.7 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 96.3 driver rating. Last season he finished 4th in his lone race last season. Overall he have knocked off 9 Top 13 finishes over his past 12 races. He always been good at Phoenix and I don't think that will change anything soon.
Road Courses always been a really good type racetrack for Busch, but I have felt like in the past that his Sonoma's track record have held him from being considered elite. In 2015, he changed that and returned to victory lane at Sonoma. He have found much more success at Watkins Glenn though. I don't think there many drivers who there with better track record than Kyle Busch have at Watkin Glenn. Only a select few have compiled better stats than him. Last season on the road courses (2 races), he compiled 1.5 average finish with 7.0 average running position and 121.1 driver rating. Last season he won at Sonoma, after strong late restart to hold on off older brother Kurt. Then at Watkin Glenn, Kyle couldn't quite catch Penske Driver Logano and had to finish 2nd. He is much better at Watkins Glenn, then he is at Sonoma. He always been a very strong driver at WGI. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 20.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. He finished 2nd last season and was one of the strongest drivers throughout the event. In 2014, he didn't have a very good race. He started off fairly strong, but then he had a problem on pit road. Followed by an incident with Martin Truex Jr which pretty much screwed any chance of him having a respectably day. Overall 5 of his previous 6 races (dating back to 2010), he have finished 8th or better in. Half (3) of those 6 races have ended inside the top 3. Including 2 of his past 3 races at WGI. He have found much less success at Sonoma, even though he finally broke out of his Sonoma slump. Over the past two seasons (2 races), he have compiled 13.0 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 89.3 driver rating. He finished 1st last season at Sonoma, but that was his first top 10 finish since his JGR road course debut in 2008 at Sonoma. Since he have only had one top 15 (2011), where he finished 11th. Otherwise, he have compiled 5 finishes of 17th or worse. 4 of those 5 races have ended in 22nd or worse. Hard to say which direction Busch is going at Sonoma, but hopefully it the right one with his 2nd win at the track recently.
Large flats will be solid spot for Busch in 2016, but I wouldn't bank on it to be a sure thing though. More so at Pocono, since he seems to be a bit inconsistent there at times. Last season at the larger flats (3 races), he compiled 10.3 average finish with 6.7 average running position and 108.9 driver rating. He won at Indy last season and finished 9th in the first Pocono race. He finished 21st in the second Pocono, after leading 21 laps early in the event. He been stronger at Indy than Pocono for awhile. Over his past 2 races at Indy (2 seasons), he have compiled 1.5 average finish with 6.5 average running position and 124.1 driver rating. Last season he went to victory lane and in 2014 he finished 2nd. I think it was only matter of time before Kyle found victory lane, after finishing 2nd in 2014 and sure enough he did in 2015. He been very good here for while now though. He have knocked off 6 straight top 10 finishes. Including 3 Top 2 finishes over his past 4 starts. Overall he have knocked off 10 Top 15 finishes in 11 races and 9 of those 10 Top 15 finishes have ended inside the top 10. Busch is one of the most underrated drivers in the series at Indy and I think he will only get better as he races more here! He haven't been so lucky at Pocono. He been alright at Pocono, but I wouldn't call it a walk in a park. He have gotten some quality finishes, but he seems to mix them with some poor finishes as well. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 81.2 driver rating. Over his past 12 Pocono races, he have compiled 6 Top 6 finishes and 5 finishes of 21st or worse. Including 2 of his past 3 races ending in 21st or worse (21st and 42nd). Like I mentioned earlier, he can be a bit inconsistent at Pocono. I would much rather use him at Indy than Pocono.
The plates aren't exactly what I would consider a strong spot for Kyle Busch. He definitely have the equipment to run well, but he often have found himself with a poor finish at both Daytona and Talladega. He been a bit better at Talladega than Daytona though. Over his past 3 races at Daytona (2 seasons), he have compiled 21.3 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 78.1 driver rating. At the moment, Kyle is in a pretty sizable slump at Daytona. He have gone 7 straight races (points paying) without an top 10 finish. His last top 10 finish was all the way back in 2011, when he sweep the top 10 that season. Prior finishing 8th and 5th in 2011, he last top 10 finishes were in 2008 when he swept the top 5 (1st, 5th). He been much better at Talladega than Daytona in terms of final finishing position . Over the past 3 races at Talladega (2 seasons), he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 21.0 average running position and 75.8 driver rating. That don't look too impressive, actually almost exactly the same as his Daytona's performance. Only difference is, he have 3 Top 12 finishes over his past 4 Talladega races. What really hurts his stats are at the 2014 October races where he finished 40th. Overall he have knocked off 5 Top 12 finishes over his past 7 races, dating back to the 2012 season. Over his past 11 races at Talladega, he have knocked off 6 Top 12 finishes. So overall he been pretty respectable, especially more recently. It hard to judge at driver at the plates in my opinion, I think it one of the most difficult things to do. There so much luck involved, honestly it probably better to not overanalyze past data. However I would probably avoid Kyle at Daytona, considering he is in a slump lately there with no top 10s since 2011.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
