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Martin Truex Jr and the 78 team was bad fast all of last season, as they made the chase with winning at Pocono. In 2016, they are switching over from Chevy to Toyota. Now while, I do believe this team won't miss much from 2015 to 2016. I do have concerns with them switching over from one brand to another. There shouldn't be any problems for Truex, but there always that little voice of doubt in back of the mind that says he will have a struggling start. Will that happen? I don't know. Will Truex return to victory lane for the second straight season for the first time in his career? Who knows really, if they unload like they did in 2015, then I would put my money on them winning a few races in 2016.
I expect Truex strongest area to be the intermediate racetracks in 2016. Last season on the intermediate racetracks (17 races), he supported 8.2 average finish with 7.3 average running position and 108.6 driver rating. He had very few poor finishes at the intermediate racetracks last season. His worst three finishes were 17th (Kentucky), 15th (Kansas - 2nd race) and 13th (Chicago). All rest of his races ended up inside the top 12. In fact 12 of those 17 races at the intermediate racetracks ended inside the top 10. Including 9 of his first 10 ending inside the top 9. His numbers fell off once we hit the chase though. Still very impressive season by the 78 team. His best tracks are Homestead, Dover and Darlington probably off top of my head. I consider Homestead as his best racetrack. Last season, he had easy top 10 speed. However his team couldn't get the handling right on his car at end of the race, so he had to finish 12th place. Dover is also a very good racetrack for him. Especially more recently. Top 15 in 5 straight Dover races. Including 4 straight top 11 finishes with the 78 team. If we go back further, I would say Dover is Martin's best racetrack. Over his previous 8 races (dating back to 2012), he have reeled off 5 Top 7 finishes. Overall 6 Top 11 finishes and total of 7 top 15 finishes. His lone non-top 15 was in 2013, where he blew an engine. Even though he had a bad fast car in that race. He have finished inside the top 10 in nearly half (9) of his 20 career starts. He have finished 14 of his 20 career races inside the top 20. Darlington is a tough place to judge a driver at, since we only go to this track once per season. He haven't blown us away with top 10 finishes (4), but his 9 Top 20 in 10 career races screams consistency. Yeah I know that isn't a ''wow'' factor stat. But let look deeper into those numbers. He finished 9th last season. 6 of his 10 career races have ended inside the top 12. 8 of his 10 career races ended inside the top 14. Yeah that's pretty good, I would say!
He also been pretty good on the short flat racetracks of Phoenix and New Hampshire. I expect him to run well at both tracks in 2016. Last season at short flat racetracks (4 races), he supported 10.3 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 95.9 driver rating. He was pretty much equal at both venues last season. Even though I personally think he was a little better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the previous 4 Phoenix races (2 seasons), he have supported 13.8 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 89.6 driver rating. He have reeled off 3 straight Top 14 finishes heading into the 2016 season at Phoenix. Overall, he have reeled off 5 Top 14 finishes over his previous 8 races. Including 3 Top 8 finishes, with his most recent top 8 finish coming in last spring race. Looking deeper into his stats, he have knocked off 9 Top 20 finishes over his previous 12 races at Phoenix. With 7 of those 9 Top 20, ending inside the top 15. He been just as good at New Hampshire in my opinion. Over his past 4 New Hampshire races (2 seasons), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 12th and 8th. In 2014, he finished 12th in both races. Overall he have 5 straight top 12 finishes dating back to the 2013 season. Digging deeper into his New Hampshire stats, he have reeled off 11 Top 20 finishes in his previous 12 races. Including 7 of his previous 10 races ending inside the top 12. Overall he been pretty solid at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. I would say they are pretty equal in terms of comparable. He have had a better average finish at New Hampshire lately, but he have performed a bit better at Phoenix though. When looking deeper into the stats, he been very consistent at both racetracks.
Road course will definitely be a strong point for Truex in 2016. Truex in my opinion is one of the most overlooked drivers on the road courses. He spent a good amount of time with MWR and teammates with road course ace Clint Bowyer. That what I think helped him a lot too. Now look at him, a pretty successful road course driver himself. He is pretty good at both venues. Last season on the road courses, he supported 33.5 average finish with 22.5 average running position and 74.8 driver rating. Those were very terrible stats for Truex at the road courses in 2015. Simply put, he had a lot of bad luck on the road courses last season. At Sonoma, he got wrecked by David Ragan and finished 42nd. At WGI, he ran out of fuel and had to settle for an 25th-place finish. Despite having a strong near top 5 car most of the event. He been better at WGI than Sonoma in career though. Over the past 2 seasons (2 races) at WGI, he have supported 19.0 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 83.1 driver rating. He finished 25th in 2015 and finished 13th in 2014. Overall, prior to finishing 25th in 2015, he had reeled off 5 straight top 15 finishes. Including 3 Top 10 finishes from 2011 to 2014. If we go back further, he have knocked off 7 top 10 finishes in 10 career starts. Including 5 of his previous 8 races (minus his most recent race in 2015 and his debut in 2006) have ended inside the top 10. Over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma (2 races), he have supported 28.5 average finish with 26.5 average running position and 70.3 driver rating. He had finishes of 42nd and 15th over the past two season. Prior to finishing 42nd last season, he had finished 15th or better in 3 of his previous 4 races dating back to the 2011 season. He haven't found much success at Sonoma like he have at Watkins Glenn though.
Short tracks will be a okay spot for Truex in 2016, but I don't think he will be overly strong at it like some of the tracks I have mentioned like the intermediates and road courses. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he supported 18.5 average finish with 16.7 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. He haven't been that good at any of the short tracks honestly, but I would say his best short track is probably Martinsville though. Over the previous 4 Martinsville races (2 seasons), he have supported 17.8 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 77.2 driver rating. Despite unimpressive numbers from a overall standpoint, he does have 2 Top 10 finishes over his previous 4 races at Martinsville. Those 2 Top 10 finishes both came last season though. He finished 6th in both races in 2015 at Martinsville. Looking deeper into the data pool, Truex have struggled at Martinsville. only 5 Top 20 finishes over his previous 10 races, even though 4 of those were top 10 finishes. Still pretty unimpressive. But Truex isn't exactly the greatest short track racer either. His second best short track is probably Richmond recently. Over his previous 4 Richmond races, he have supported 19.3 average finish with 20.3 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. Over those 4 races, he have knocked off 2 Top 10 finishes and one of them came last spring (2015). Overall he have reeled off 3 Top 10 finishes over his previous 5 Richmond races. Including 4 Top 20 finishes over his previous 6 Richmond races. So he haven't been bad, but his best finish have been 10th (twice). His worst short track most recently (which is probably saying something) is Bristol. Folks Bristol have not been very kind to Mr. Truex. Over his previous 4 Bristol races, he have supported 28.3 average finish with 20.8 average running position and 67.3 driver rating. His best finish is 20th and remains his lone top 25 finish over the previous two seasons. Truex have found success in the past, especially with his time with MWR. He actually reeled off 7 Top 20 finishes in 8 races (4 seasons), when he was still in the 56 car. Including 5 Top 12 finishes. So not like he cannot finish well at Bristol, it just he haven't yet with the 78 team. Honestly my best piece of advice for all of you is just avoid Truex on the short tracks. Outside of Daytona, these are his three worst racetracks from a career average finish point of view. He have shown the potential the past two seasons, but I just don't see the upside with him. Especially since he runs so well at so many other racetracks.
Restrictor Plates will be a fairly weak type of racetrack for Truex in 2016 and quite frankly he have not never been a strong plate racer, but a respectably one though. By no means is he a Dale Earnhardt Jr or anything. But he can be effective, if he finishes with his car all in one piece. Last season on the restrictor plates (4 races), he supported 14.5 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. He been better at Talladega than Daytona most recently. Over the previous 4 races at Daytona, he have supported 26.0 average finish with 23.8 average running position and 68.0 driver rating. Last season at Daytona, he posted finishes of 38th and 8th. In 2014, he had finishes of 43rd and 15th. Prior to finishing 8th last season, his last and only other top 10 finish was back in 2010. In 21 career races at Daytona (points paying), he have only managed 2 Top 10 finishes and 11 Top 20 finishes. This is his worst racetrack in terms of average finish (23.2). He have been better at Talladega most recently and from a career stand point. Over his previous 4 Talladega races, he have supported 14.0 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 82.8 driver rating. Last season he posted finishes of 7th and 5th. In 2014, he had finishes of 27th and 17th. He been very consistent over the past 6 seasons (12 races). Over his previous 12 races at Talladega, he have reeled off 9 Top 13 finishes. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. 4 of his previous 6 Talladega races have neded inside the top 8.
Truex was very good last season on the large flat racetracks and I think he can continue that trend in 2016. Last season on the large flat racetracks, he supported 8.0 average finish with 7.3 average running position and 118.3 driver rating. He was very good at Pocono last season and even went to victory. Over the previous 4 Pocono races, he have supported 15.3 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, he had finishes of 19th and 1st. He won the June race. And was very strong in the August race, but something happened to him late in the race, that cost him a solid finish though. Over his previous 12 Pocono races, he have reeled off 7 Top 15 finishes. 3 of his previous 5 races have ended inside the top 15. Including 2 Top 9 finishes over the past two seasons. Truex does not have staggering numbers at Pocono, but he have performed very here recently. So there a lot of hope for Truex at the large flat racetrack of Pocono. He been pretty good recently at Indy as well. Over the past 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 14.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 85.1 driver rating. Last season he was very strong here and finished an impressive 4th place when the checkers waved. In that race, he had about 6th to 8th place car for most of the event, if I recall correctly. Late caution allowed him to gain a few extra positions before the checkers waved though. He have found plenty of success lately at Indy. 3 of his previous 4 races, he have ended inside the top 11.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Martin Truex Jr and the 78 team was bad fast all of last season, as they made the chase with winning at Pocono. In 2016, they are switching over from Chevy to Toyota. Now while, I do believe this team won't miss much from 2015 to 2016. I do have concerns with them switching over from one brand to another. There shouldn't be any problems for Truex, but there always that little voice of doubt in back of the mind that says he will have a struggling start. Will that happen? I don't know. Will Truex return to victory lane for the second straight season for the first time in his career? Who knows really, if they unload like they did in 2015, then I would put my money on them winning a few races in 2016.
I expect Truex strongest area to be the intermediate racetracks in 2016. Last season on the intermediate racetracks (17 races), he supported 8.2 average finish with 7.3 average running position and 108.6 driver rating. He had very few poor finishes at the intermediate racetracks last season. His worst three finishes were 17th (Kentucky), 15th (Kansas - 2nd race) and 13th (Chicago). All rest of his races ended up inside the top 12. In fact 12 of those 17 races at the intermediate racetracks ended inside the top 10. Including 9 of his first 10 ending inside the top 9. His numbers fell off once we hit the chase though. Still very impressive season by the 78 team. His best tracks are Homestead, Dover and Darlington probably off top of my head. I consider Homestead as his best racetrack. Last season, he had easy top 10 speed. However his team couldn't get the handling right on his car at end of the race, so he had to finish 12th place. Dover is also a very good racetrack for him. Especially more recently. Top 15 in 5 straight Dover races. Including 4 straight top 11 finishes with the 78 team. If we go back further, I would say Dover is Martin's best racetrack. Over his previous 8 races (dating back to 2012), he have reeled off 5 Top 7 finishes. Overall 6 Top 11 finishes and total of 7 top 15 finishes. His lone non-top 15 was in 2013, where he blew an engine. Even though he had a bad fast car in that race. He have finished inside the top 10 in nearly half (9) of his 20 career starts. He have finished 14 of his 20 career races inside the top 20. Darlington is a tough place to judge a driver at, since we only go to this track once per season. He haven't blown us away with top 10 finishes (4), but his 9 Top 20 in 10 career races screams consistency. Yeah I know that isn't a ''wow'' factor stat. But let look deeper into those numbers. He finished 9th last season. 6 of his 10 career races have ended inside the top 12. 8 of his 10 career races ended inside the top 14. Yeah that's pretty good, I would say!
He also been pretty good on the short flat racetracks of Phoenix and New Hampshire. I expect him to run well at both tracks in 2016. Last season at short flat racetracks (4 races), he supported 10.3 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 95.9 driver rating. He was pretty much equal at both venues last season. Even though I personally think he was a little better at Phoenix than New Hampshire though. Over the previous 4 Phoenix races (2 seasons), he have supported 13.8 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 89.6 driver rating. He have reeled off 3 straight Top 14 finishes heading into the 2016 season at Phoenix. Overall, he have reeled off 5 Top 14 finishes over his previous 8 races. Including 3 Top 8 finishes, with his most recent top 8 finish coming in last spring race. Looking deeper into his stats, he have knocked off 9 Top 20 finishes over his previous 12 races at Phoenix. With 7 of those 9 Top 20, ending inside the top 15. He been just as good at New Hampshire in my opinion. Over his past 4 New Hampshire races (2 seasons), he have supported 11.0 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 12th and 8th. In 2014, he finished 12th in both races. Overall he have 5 straight top 12 finishes dating back to the 2013 season. Digging deeper into his New Hampshire stats, he have reeled off 11 Top 20 finishes in his previous 12 races. Including 7 of his previous 10 races ending inside the top 12. Overall he been pretty solid at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. I would say they are pretty equal in terms of comparable. He have had a better average finish at New Hampshire lately, but he have performed a bit better at Phoenix though. When looking deeper into the stats, he been very consistent at both racetracks.
Road course will definitely be a strong point for Truex in 2016. Truex in my opinion is one of the most overlooked drivers on the road courses. He spent a good amount of time with MWR and teammates with road course ace Clint Bowyer. That what I think helped him a lot too. Now look at him, a pretty successful road course driver himself. He is pretty good at both venues. Last season on the road courses, he supported 33.5 average finish with 22.5 average running position and 74.8 driver rating. Those were very terrible stats for Truex at the road courses in 2015. Simply put, he had a lot of bad luck on the road courses last season. At Sonoma, he got wrecked by David Ragan and finished 42nd. At WGI, he ran out of fuel and had to settle for an 25th-place finish. Despite having a strong near top 5 car most of the event. He been better at WGI than Sonoma in career though. Over the past 2 seasons (2 races) at WGI, he have supported 19.0 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 83.1 driver rating. He finished 25th in 2015 and finished 13th in 2014. Overall, prior to finishing 25th in 2015, he had reeled off 5 straight top 15 finishes. Including 3 Top 10 finishes from 2011 to 2014. If we go back further, he have knocked off 7 top 10 finishes in 10 career starts. Including 5 of his previous 8 races (minus his most recent race in 2015 and his debut in 2006) have ended inside the top 10. Over the past 2 seasons at Sonoma (2 races), he have supported 28.5 average finish with 26.5 average running position and 70.3 driver rating. He had finishes of 42nd and 15th over the past two season. Prior to finishing 42nd last season, he had finished 15th or better in 3 of his previous 4 races dating back to the 2011 season. He haven't found much success at Sonoma like he have at Watkins Glenn though.
Short tracks will be a okay spot for Truex in 2016, but I don't think he will be overly strong at it like some of the tracks I have mentioned like the intermediates and road courses. Last season on the short tracks (6 races), he supported 18.5 average finish with 16.7 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. He haven't been that good at any of the short tracks honestly, but I would say his best short track is probably Martinsville though. Over the previous 4 Martinsville races (2 seasons), he have supported 17.8 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 77.2 driver rating. Despite unimpressive numbers from a overall standpoint, he does have 2 Top 10 finishes over his previous 4 races at Martinsville. Those 2 Top 10 finishes both came last season though. He finished 6th in both races in 2015 at Martinsville. Looking deeper into the data pool, Truex have struggled at Martinsville. only 5 Top 20 finishes over his previous 10 races, even though 4 of those were top 10 finishes. Still pretty unimpressive. But Truex isn't exactly the greatest short track racer either. His second best short track is probably Richmond recently. Over his previous 4 Richmond races, he have supported 19.3 average finish with 20.3 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. Over those 4 races, he have knocked off 2 Top 10 finishes and one of them came last spring (2015). Overall he have reeled off 3 Top 10 finishes over his previous 5 Richmond races. Including 4 Top 20 finishes over his previous 6 Richmond races. So he haven't been bad, but his best finish have been 10th (twice). His worst short track most recently (which is probably saying something) is Bristol. Folks Bristol have not been very kind to Mr. Truex. Over his previous 4 Bristol races, he have supported 28.3 average finish with 20.8 average running position and 67.3 driver rating. His best finish is 20th and remains his lone top 25 finish over the previous two seasons. Truex have found success in the past, especially with his time with MWR. He actually reeled off 7 Top 20 finishes in 8 races (4 seasons), when he was still in the 56 car. Including 5 Top 12 finishes. So not like he cannot finish well at Bristol, it just he haven't yet with the 78 team. Honestly my best piece of advice for all of you is just avoid Truex on the short tracks. Outside of Daytona, these are his three worst racetracks from a career average finish point of view. He have shown the potential the past two seasons, but I just don't see the upside with him. Especially since he runs so well at so many other racetracks.
Restrictor Plates will be a fairly weak type of racetrack for Truex in 2016 and quite frankly he have not never been a strong plate racer, but a respectably one though. By no means is he a Dale Earnhardt Jr or anything. But he can be effective, if he finishes with his car all in one piece. Last season on the restrictor plates (4 races), he supported 14.5 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. He been better at Talladega than Daytona most recently. Over the previous 4 races at Daytona, he have supported 26.0 average finish with 23.8 average running position and 68.0 driver rating. Last season at Daytona, he posted finishes of 38th and 8th. In 2014, he had finishes of 43rd and 15th. Prior to finishing 8th last season, his last and only other top 10 finish was back in 2010. In 21 career races at Daytona (points paying), he have only managed 2 Top 10 finishes and 11 Top 20 finishes. This is his worst racetrack in terms of average finish (23.2). He have been better at Talladega most recently and from a career stand point. Over his previous 4 Talladega races, he have supported 14.0 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 82.8 driver rating. Last season he posted finishes of 7th and 5th. In 2014, he had finishes of 27th and 17th. He been very consistent over the past 6 seasons (12 races). Over his previous 12 races at Talladega, he have reeled off 9 Top 13 finishes. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. 4 of his previous 6 Talladega races have neded inside the top 8.
Truex was very good last season on the large flat racetracks and I think he can continue that trend in 2016. Last season on the large flat racetracks, he supported 8.0 average finish with 7.3 average running position and 118.3 driver rating. He was very good at Pocono last season and even went to victory. Over the previous 4 Pocono races, he have supported 15.3 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, he had finishes of 19th and 1st. He won the June race. And was very strong in the August race, but something happened to him late in the race, that cost him a solid finish though. Over his previous 12 Pocono races, he have reeled off 7 Top 15 finishes. 3 of his previous 5 races have ended inside the top 15. Including 2 Top 9 finishes over the past two seasons. Truex does not have staggering numbers at Pocono, but he have performed very here recently. So there a lot of hope for Truex at the large flat racetrack of Pocono. He been pretty good recently at Indy as well. Over the past 2 seasons (2 races), he have supported 14.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 85.1 driver rating. Last season he was very strong here and finished an impressive 4th place when the checkers waved. In that race, he had about 6th to 8th place car for most of the event, if I recall correctly. Late caution allowed him to gain a few extra positions before the checkers waved though. He have found plenty of success lately at Indy. 3 of his previous 4 races, he have ended inside the top 11.
Twitter - @MattAleza
