Saturday, February 27, 2016

Fantasy Nascar Update (Atlanta)

Welcome to TimersSports

If you are expecting a nice, calm, and predictable Atlanta race, then you are probably going to be disappointed. I think we are in for a bit of a wild race with the loose racecar, worn-out surface and new aero package. I personally don't think anyone knows what to expect in Sunday's race. Usually Jeff Nathans cover his post, but he couldn't be available today, so he wanted me to fill in for him. Here is my top 15 drivers after watching and evaluating everything this weekend!

1. Kevin Harvick - I am going with Harvick as my top driver this week. He brings everything you want to the table as a quality fantasy option. Proven track record, solid starting position and a decent practice results. He wasn't at top of the board in practice this week, but I feel like he will be at the front all day long on Sunday and contend for a top 5 finish. Sure he lacked speed in Saturday's practice session, but I am not concerned at all by that. I think Harvick and the 4 team was messing around with the car and posted a long run toward end of final practice. He have solid speed based on that and I expect him to be better during the race. I think he is a top 5 guy headed into the race.

2. Jimmie Johnson - Look starting position means nothing. Sorry folks, but did you watch the NXS race on Saturday? Erik Jones had a pass through penalty on lap one and was inside the top 5 again before lap 20. Yeah you can pass here and it was obvious of that last season too. Johnson started 39th in this race and won this race. The multiple racing grooves allows for plenty of passing, so I think the 48 car will up front in no time. He have had a lot of success here over the years and looked strong in final practice. In my opinion, he had one of the best cars in practice this weekend. He posted the 3rd-best overall speed and 3rd-best 10 lap average as well. Hard to not like Jimmie Johnson as a fantasy pick. He is easily one of the favorites this weekend, but for some reason I think he is being overlooked though. That could be a big mistake come raceday, if he continues this good weekend.

3. Kyle Busch - I really love Kyle Busch this weekend and if he started on the pole, then I would rank him as my number pick this weekend. However he starting dead last, after his lap got disallowed in qualifying. He been very fast all weekend long and have a solid recent history here at Atlanta. He won at Atlanta just a few seasons ago, and I think he could return to the victory lane once again. He already have one win this weekend and he may just have another in store for him still. He looked pretty good in practice on Saturday. He posted the 6th fastest lap overall, but posted the 25th-quickest ten lap average, but I am not too concerned with that though. I think he will be just fine and be able to jaw his way through the field to the front.

4. Matt Kenseth - I like Matt a lot for Sunday's race. He ran a lot of laps in final practice and seemed pretty happy with his JGR Toyota overall. I think he is one of those fantasy picks who always gets passed up for someone else. Because Kenseth isn't the ''man'', meaning he isn't the first driver who comes to mind as a front runner. However he is a elite driver at Atlanta though. He is a machine at Atlanta. He is pretty much a lock for a top 15 every time we come here and more likely more than that. He been fast this weekend and will start just outside of the top 12. He also looked pretty good in practice too. In final practice, he posted a solid 9th-best ten-lap average and 11th-quickest lap overall. I think Kenseth will be one of those drivers coming rather than going. He have decent starting position and a solid car. I think he will finish near the front on Sunday!

5. Kurt Busch - I like Kurt a lot this weekend. Now I don't think he will win Sunday's race, but I think he will be around the top 5 all race long. He will start from pole and likely lead some laps early on, but I get the feeling he will fade after awhile though. But based on final practice, I think he is definitely good enough to stay inside the top 5. He seems to have solid long run speed and should be able to keep his track position most of the race. I really like him overall as fantasy pick. Personally I expect a lot of comers and goers on Sunday. But the 41 car is one of the guys I expect to be consistently towards the front though.

6. Martin Truex Jr - Truex will start from the 9th starting position and have found plenty of success at Atlanta recently and looks for more of that in 2016. He definitely should fine so more, as he seems pretty happy with his car after practice. He could pretty much run where ever he wanted without any issues. He posted the 2nd-fastest lap overall and 8th-fastest ten lap average in final practice. I think he will be a top 10 contender all day long and break into the top 5 before the checkers wave. He could be slept on this weekend, but I wouldn't advise doing that. He have a pretty good car and should make a solid fantasy option.

7. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin will roll off from inside the top 15 for Sunday's race. He had a lot of speed in final practice and should be a top 10 guy headed into the race. I personally don't view Hamlin as a heavy favorite because he been either top 5 or bust recently at Atlanta. Also he will probably take extra gambles to ensure that 2nd win this season. Doesn't mean he will, just because that option is open for him. With so many great options to choose from, I would prefer one of the drivers I listed above. If you were to select Denny as a fantasy pick, then you should be fine though. He have a fast car and a strong long run speed. He posted the best lap in final practice and the 10th-best ten lap average as well. I think he finishes inside the top 5 or within 2 position of that mark.

8. Brad Keselowski - Kesewloski haven't looked great this weekend, but he better than his 17th place starting position shows. I think he will surprise some people actually. He looked good in final practice and will most likely drive up into the top 10. However I get the feeling that Penske is behind the competition to start the year. I haven't really seen the speed that I was expecting so far and personally don't know if they have any yet. Atlanta have been a so-and-so track for Keselowski as well, which makes me wonder what type of finish we will see from the 2 team on Sunday. Realistically I see a finish from 6th-9th from him, if I had to absolutely guess.

9. Dale Jr - Junior should be a decent fantasy pick for Sunday's race and looked to have a fast car in final practice. Posting both the 4th-fastest single lap and 4th-best ten lap average on Saturday. He qualified 16th and should be able to quickly challenge for a top 10 run on Sunday. Dale is without a doubt one of the safest fantasy option to roll with on a weekly basis, but the problem is he doesn't have a lot of fantasy value. Since he often only can be counted for top 10 finishes. Not to mention, he doesn't usually lead many races which also effects his upside as well. As for Atlanta, I view him a top 10 guy headed into the race with potential to challenge for a top 5 finish. But I say he finishes somewhere in the latter part of the top 10.

10. Kyle Larson - Both of the CGR cars have had speed this weekend and I don't that change on Sunday. I like Larson plenty since Atlanta fits perfectly into his driving style. Of course the bottom is the preferred line, but if anyone get that top to work well then my money is on the 42 car. He qualified 20th, but I think we will see him challenge for a top 10 finish before the checkers wave. Larson posted the 12th-single fastest lap and 14th-best ten lap average in final practice. Realistically a finish from 8th-12th is where Larson will most likely finish. However seeing him up near the top 5 when the checkers wave wouldn't shock me at all.  

11. Ryan Newman - Newman have been pretty good so far and starting up front inside the top 5, too. I really like him as a fantasy option in fantasy formats like Yahoo though. He should be able to stay towards the front for most of the race and finish towards latter part of the top 10, maybe just outside of the top 10 at worst. RCR seems to have some good cars this weekend so far and I think that's a great sign for fantasy players wanting to go with Newman. Realistically a finish from just inside the top 10 or just outside of the top 10 is probably most ideal for Newman!

12. Carl Edwards - Edwards haven't been that good so far this weekend and I am not really expecting a huge day on Sunday from him either. He should be good for a finish somewhere in the teens or just inside the top 10 at best. Among the JGR cars, I think Edwards have looked a little more off than his teammates. I just haven't gotten a feeling that he will be able to go up and challenge for a top 5 finish like many of us were expecting. Now to be fair, I may be a bit hard on him because I had higher hopes for him than I have seen. I have him pinned in as a top 10 to top 12 guy headed into the race.

13. Joey Logano - Logano have struggled all weekend and heads into Sunday's race as a huge question mark in my opinion. I have not been very impressed by his results the last few days. He qualified 27th and finished 27th in final practice. Not exactly efforts to be pleased about. However there is reason to be hopeful though. After practice he tweeted that he was better than the times have showed. He also added that they were still looking for a little more speed. That gives me a indication that they are not where they want to be with the 22 car yet. I think he will be able to challenge for a top 10 or at worst a top 15 finish. I think it will be hard him to finish any worse than that, even though his efforts this weekend have been ugly thus far.

14. Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne was the worst HMS car in final practice, but he also the highest starting HMS car. So chalk that up how you like. Regardless I think Kasey will contend for a top 15 finish in Sunday's race. He been pretty good here recently, so no reason to think he cannot be a respectable fantasy option. He may sneak into the top 10 before the checkers, but I am not really counting on that. Ideally I would expect a top 12 to top 15 performance from Kahne. He posted the 15th-best ten lap average in final practice for those wondering.

15. Jamie Mac - Jamie Mac rounds out my top 15! I like the 1 car a lot for Sunday's race, but I just don't like depending heavily on him. Jamie loves burning me for some reason, so I will give him some room for error. But he have looked very good all weekend. He qualified 2nd and posted some really solid laps in practice. He posted the 7th-fastest single lap and 2nd-best ten lap average in final practice. I liked what him and teammate Kyle Larson both showed. They were not flashy, but they were solid overall. I think Jamie least finishes inside the top 15, and I wouldn't rule out a top 10 finish from him before the checkers either!

Twitter - @MattAleza