Saturday, May 14, 2016

Fantasy Nascar Picks (Dover)

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We are at Dover this weekend for the 12th race of the Nascar season. Dover is a one-mile intermediate racetrack and is described by many as one of the toughest tracks on the schedule to master. Only a few have mastered the monster mile and those are the drivers we should heavily be leaning on this weekend. With race in the forecast threatening on Friday, it would be wise to take into consideration each driver's points situation. The real challenging part about Dover is how isn't similar to any other track that we go to. So we will have to depend on past stats at Dover to set our fantasy lineups. Unlike other tracks where we could count on current season's data. It kinda makes me want to lean a little more heavily on the top drivers this week with so many unknowns.

Yahoo -

A:

Start- Kevin Harvick (7)

Bench - Jimmie Johnson (6)

Reasons -  Jimmie Johnson is obviously a great fantasy pick this weekend and he has a fast car. And I have no doubts, Johnson will finish inside the top 5. But I think this is a Kevin Harvick race and we haven't seen too many of those lately. Least not where he looks capable of dominating like he shown this weekend. He starting from the pole and I am scared for the field. Only driver I would considering benching Harvick for is Kyle Busch.

B:

Start - Martin Truex Jr (6) and Ryan Newman (6)

Bench - Kasey Kahne (9) and Kyle Larson (8)

Reasons - There three really good options and then there Kasey Kahne. No disrespect to Kahne, but I don't he finishes quite as well as everyone was thinking. I gave serious consideration to Kyle Larson, but in my opinion he is a risky fantasy option and I don't typically like taking risks like Larson. Unless he looks dominated. Larson looks top 10 good, but I doubts he goes to victory lane. So I am rolling with Martin Truex Jr and Ryan Newman. I am going to burn another Truex start because I think he will have a top 5 run on Sunday and I like the use 'em while they are hot approach. Newman has top 10 potential for the race and starts near the front.

C:

Start - Chase Elliott (7)

Bench - Ryan Blaney (6)

Reasons - This week I think the top two (Elliott and Blaney) will run away from the competition in the C-list grouping tier. There were talks of possibly having a few surprise in the top 20 or top 25 finishers, but after practice I don't see it. As for my options, I am going with Elliott over Blaney. Elliott just looked better overall and I believe Blaney will be better later in the season

Fantasy Live - 48,4,18, 30 and 13

Reasons - This week I think we will see the best two cars dominate in Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. They start from 3rd and 1st and I don't see either driver dropping too far down the leaderboard. I expect both to lead laps and one of them leading the most laps. Johnson from mid-pack should provide a solid amount of position diff points from 21st place. Then I need some value picks to counter my heavy-hitting star power. Wise and Mears get the call! Mears starts from 26th and have looked good in practice, so at 10.25 he is a solid value. Wise is on for really no reason other than his low-price.

Sleeper - Kyle Larson

Winner - Kevin Harvick

Twitter - @MattAleza