Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Fantasy Nascar Sleepers (Dover)

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From a fan perspective, whenever the series heads to Dover it always a fun race to watch. I personally enjoy the racing at Dover. It have always been at top of my list of favorite tracks. From a fantasy perspective, it kinda of a struggle in the spring time. Especially with a new race package this season. I say that because, there is no comparable track on the schedule to Dover. This place is unique, unlike no other track we visit. So we have to basically depend on past season's stats. Sometimes it works out okay, but other times not so much. While it is important to look at past data, I do believe we should take into consideration current season's success. A little of both cannot hurt too much. That's just my two cent though. Let's get into today's fantasy content!

Sleepers -

Kyle Larson: Larson struggled in the first 5 races this season to find speed, but after the off-week break (between Cali and Martinsville), he have been a consistent top 15 driver based on speed. Over the past 3 races (minus Talladega), Larson have twice had a car that was capable of a top 5 finishes or least top 10s. However both times he failed to finish the race and neither time was his really his fault. Can he turn his luck around at Dover? I don't know, but I think he will have some great potential! Dover have been a great track for CGR over the last couple seasons and been very kind to Kyle. In his first 4 career starts, he have posted 4 Top 11 finishes. With 3 straight top 9 finishes, including an career-best 3rd this past spring. Need more to like about him? Larson have been an excellent qualifier at Dover, minus the rain-out qualifying last fall. In his 3 qualifying attempts, he have never qualified worse than 7th place. It should be noted that Kyle would start 22nd, if indeed qualifying is rained out on Friday. There is some rain in the forecast.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Stenhouse Jr have been about the consistency this season (minus the shorter tracks).Yet Stenhouse is getting disrespected more and more each week in my opinion. Which is fine by me, more fantasy value for me to have to myself! Stenhouse is much better  than his numbers from the surface indicates. Over the previous 2 seasons (4 races), Stenhouse have posted an 26.3 average finish and 25.5 average running position. Terrible numbers, but don't let them fool you though. He is a solid driver here overall. His numbers are bad because of an 41st place finish and 37th place finish. If we take away those two finishes, he have 5 Top 20 finishes in 7 career starts. Including 3 Top 15 finishes in those 7 career races. He also finished 8th here last fall! Stenhouse is someone I really like this week as a fantasy sleeper. He could be that sleeper who put your lineup over the top, if you play your cards right.

Aric Almirola - This last spot was tough because a couple different drivers could have been rewarded this final spot, but in  the end I decided to roll with Aric Almirola. For a couple reasons actually, firstly Aric swept the top 5 here last season. Only Kevin Harvick was able to also accomplish that feat. Not only have was he good last season, but he always have had a knack for finishing well. In his 8 career starts at this track (all since 2012), he have finished 6 of his 8 starts inside the top 20. Even better? Aric have finished 12th or better in 3 of his 4 spring races at Dover. His other finish was 18th. Also it should be noted that 3 of his 4 best performances at Dover have came in the spring time as well. See where this is going? I guess my point being, trust your man Aric Almirola and roll with him into the weekend.

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