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Preview -
1-JMac: The No.1 car have struggled all season to find speed, even with the latest improvements shown by his teammate. In fact, I would argue that JMac have taken a step back over the past month. No, really he have actually taken a step back over his past 3 Sprint Cup races. But honestly outside of a couple races this season, Jamie rarely have been a top 15 driver for an event. I just think it now more eye-opening since Larson is showing improvements. I am not very high on the Driver of the No.1 car this weekend at Pocono. Even with a great track at Pocono like he has, I don't really trust him to be a top 15 driver entering the race. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 9.8 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 88.7 driver rating. Going back further, he have posted 8 straight Top 17 finishes. With 5 Top 15 finishes over his past 6 Pocono, including 3 straight Top 10 finishes before finishing 15th last August. Great numbers overall since the 2012 season. So why don't I like him? Past stats means shit to me honestly. They aren't worthless, since there is no other comparable track to link Pocono with (other than Indy). However, when a driver haven't shown top 15 speed in weeks, I find it difficult to trust them honestly.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off one of his better results of the season at Charlotte (where he finished 5th). Keselowski have been a consistent finisher this season, with 9 Top 10 finishes in 13 races and should add to that total on Sunday at Pocono. He been very good in the past at the ''Tricky Triangle'' and should be once again. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 102.1 driver rating. In that 4-race span, Brad has two strong finishes (2nd place twice) and two poor finishes (23rd and 17th). To be fair, Penske was off at this time last season in my opinion. So that probably effected Brad's performance a little. However he came back last August and showed that he can run well at Pocono! As much as I like Brad heading into the weekend, I don't know if he'll get the finish he deserves. Why? Well, over the 4 of the 5 past June races (at Pocono), he have finished 16th or worse. His lone good result? 2nd place in June 2014. In the August race since the 2011 season? His finishes read: 2nd (2015), 23rd (2014), 6th (2013), 4th (2012) and 1st (2011). Point being? Trends say Brad will finish better in the August race.
3-Austin Dillon: With all the hype surrounding, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson lately, I think Austin Dillon have got lost in the shuffle. That shouldn't take away from the fact that Austin Dillon is having his best year of his career in the Sprint Cup Series. With another solid effort at Charlotte this past Sunday (12th place). Much like Larson, Austin Dillon have found a decent deal of success at Pocono Raceway so far in his young career. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. However 3 of those 4 races are irrelevant to me personally. The only event that I am focusing on is last August race (August 2015), which is the only race where he had Slugger as his Crew Chief. In that event, he started 4th, finished 13th, and posted 12.0 average running position and 91.7 driver rating. Those are realistically around the type of numbers I am expecting from Dillon this weekend. Qualify well, perform and finish in the lower to mid teens.
4-Kevin Harvick: Kevin Harvick wasn't great on last Sunday night, but he still found a way to finish an impressive 2nd place. I say that because, he wasn't all too good at Charlotte for the event. But when it mattered most, his crew was able to fix him up and make his car fast! So what to expect from him at Pocono? I expect, he will have one of the best cars this weekend (as usual). He been very good at Pocono, but his finishes don't quite show it though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 101.9 driver rating. His driver rating shows he been pretty fast. However the problem is, a blown engine really effects how that driver rating looks. Trust me, he been better than that 101.9. Even though that isn't nothing to laugh. In last August race, he finished 42nd after blowing his engine after just 20 laps. In the June race, he was very strong and finished 2nd after leading 39 laps. His first bad race at Pocono was back in June 2014. It wasn't a bad bad race, but he finished 14th. And honestly he easily had a top 5 car for that race. If I remember correctly, Harvick lost a couple laps early in the event because he had to make an unscheduled pit stop. He came back in the August race and finished 2nd place after leading 5 laps on that day. Harvick is one of the favorites and will definitely be someone you have to beat to take the checkers!
5-Kasey Kahne: After 13 races, it is clear that Kasey Kahne isn't legit and probably shouldn't be trusted. His performance this season on most weekends have been poor and it doesn't look like he will suddenly start running competitively anytime soon. Even though I will give him credit with finishing 22nd at Charlotte. Considering he made several unscheduled pit stops during the 600, the fact that he finished that well is probably a victory for him. But I don't trust him at Pocono. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 27.0 average finish with 20.5 average running position and 73.6 driver rating. Since the 2011 season, Kahne's have been super inconsistent at Pocono. How inconsistent? Every single season over the past 5 years, he have one poor finish (outside of the top 20) and one solid result (inside the top 15)! With that said, most of his good outcomes have came at the August race. From 2012 to 2014, Kahne was a stud in the August race with 3 straight Top 6 finishes. Including 2 Top 2 finishes in 3 races. However last season, he decided to flip the script on us and finish 13th in the June race and 43rd in the August race. Only other time, he finished well in the June race? 2011, where Kahne finished 6th place. Of course that just the most recent of Kahne's finishes at Pocono. He have posted 8 Top 10 finishes in 24 career starts. 6 of those 8 Top 10 finishes have came in the August race. Including his previous 5 Top 10 finishes at this track. Point being I guess is, Kahne more than likely will finish better in the August race.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin remains the weak link in the JGR organization this season with his inconsistency. He also seems likely the slowest JGR car this as well. However he is making solid gains overall though. Hamlin did finish top 10 at Charlotte and contended at Kansas, until he made that crazy move with about 30 laps to go. So what can we expect from him at Pocono? Hard to say, but I like him a lot this weekend actually. Pocono always been a pretty solid racetrack for him. He haven't been quite as good as he once was though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.3 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 99.7 driver rating. He started off his career with 4 wins in his first 9 career starts. In fact, he finished 6th or better in 7 of his first 9 races here. However he have cooled off considerably over the past 3 seasons here though. Over the past 6 races, he have posted 4 Top 10 finishes. However only once have he finished inside the top 5. He probably would have made it 5 Top 10 finishes, but remember tons of drivers ran out of fuel last August here. Hamlin was one of those drivers. So it not like Hamlin is running poorly at Pocono, he just isn't living up to his standard at this place. I honestly believe Hamlin is overdue for a strong performance here, so don't too shocked to see him run well on Sunday. I like him as a solid under the radar fantasy pick.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: After 13 races this season, Stenhouse have finished 16th or better in 9 of those races. It kinda shocking that more people have not taken advantage of his consistency this season. If we take out the Richmond race (he was top 10 strong by the way, before issues), his last finish worse than 16th place was back at Martinsville. Which is basically two months ago! However he have a sizable challenge ahead this weekend at Pocono. The Tricky Triangle have been a bit tricky for Stenhouse to figure out so far in his career. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 29.0 average finish with 28.8 average running position and 53.5 driver rating. In fact, in 6 career starts, he have only managed 2 Top 18 finishes. His other 4 races? 26th or worse. 3 of those 4 races have ended outside of the top 30. Those are some terrible numbers! Now while those are really ugly numbers, I think we will see a vast improvement from the driver of the No.17 car. Why that? Well, for starters I think Ricky is much more competitively this season than in the previous seasons. I think that will definitely help him in his overall performance, which will lead to better fantasy production. Heading into the weekend, I pin Stenhouse as a top 20-ish driver probably. Maybe a little outside of the top 20, with how bad his track record have been.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is having a tough couple weeks, since he have won at Kansas. Personally, I think the No.18 team is trying different things out the past couple races. So what can we expect from the 18 car at Pocono? I think, we will see Kyle back contending for a solid run. This been a up and down racetrack for Rowdy. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 81.2 driver rating. Over the past 12 races overall, Kyle have finished half (6) inside the top 10. So like I said, this have been a up and down racetrack for him. However, here is trend some of you may like though: 5 of the past 6 June Pocono races have ended inside the top 10 for Kyle. Truthfully, last August Kyle probably should have finished 1st or 2nd. More than likely 2nd (Joey dominated the event), but remember most of the field ran out of fuel before the checkers waved though. I like the 18 car this week (as I do most weekends), but I am kinda nervous since Kyle is prong to go on cold and hot streaks throughout the season.
19-Carl Edwards: Carl Edwards is having a tough 3-race stench, where he have finished outside of the top 10 in 4 straight races. He only finished worse than 7th once (Las Vegas - got some damage from a wreck and finished 18th) in the first 9 races. But he will have a chance to rebound this weekend at Pocono though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 23.8 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 83.7 driver rating. Last season in his first season with JGR, Edwards did decent overall I would say. In 2 races in 2015, he had finishes of 15th and 10th. In the June event, he finished 15th and led 16 laps after starting on the front row (2nd). He was obviously much better than his 15th place finish though. In the August race, he wasn't anything special but he hung around that position for most of the event. Edwards needs to break out his slump and Pocono could be a good place to do it! I have him as top 10 driver headed into the weekend.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth was the only driver to finish inside the top 10 in both races last season, but he wasn't the best driver. He actually won the August race, but he was one of the few top drivers who didn't run out of fuel. He just happen to be the first one not to run out, probably some luck involved in that. A win is a win and he was fairly competitive in that race, too. However I wouldn't call this a Matt Kenseth type racetrack. It isn't his worst track, but not a great one either though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.5 average finish with 16.8 average running positon and 84.7 driver rating. Prior to finishing 6th and 1st in last season races at Pocono, Kenseth only had 2 Top 10 finishes over his previous 13 races here. In fact, entering last June's race he was on a 5-race streak that consisted of 5 straight finishes outside of the top 20. Maybe last season was a turning point for him? Maybe. Maybe not. I guess we will find out this weekend.
21-Ryan Blaney: There isn't a lot to go on with Ryan Blaney, since he haven't made any Cup starts at the Tricky Triangle. However the Tricky Triangle have been kind to rookies in the past and it isn't uncommon to see young drivers find success here in their early years. I actually like Blaney a lot more here than I did last week at Charlotte. Headed into the weekend, I view Blaney as top 20 driver with the potential to steal a top 15 finish or even better. But first I want to see how he looks in practice. This kid have what it takes to be a solid fantasy option this weekend, if he plays his cards correctly.
22-Joey Logano: Logano dominated this race last season (in August), but he ran out of fuel before he could take the checkers. I think it was pretty obviously that he was gonna run out of fuel. He was running too hard to save enough fuel for the end. In that event, he led 97 of 160 laps before finishing 20th place. He wasn't nearly (he was considerably off) as good in the June race, but still somehow managed an 4th place finish. Pocono have been a very good track for Joey so far in his Cup career. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.8 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 105.3 driver rating. Over his past 10 races at Pocono, he have managed 7 Top 13 finishes. Including 4 Top 4 finishes, with a win coming back in 2012. However, his best three races (performance wise) have came in the past 3 August races though. In fact, his best driver rating over the past three June races have been only 88.7. A driver rating is a great tool to judge a driver's overall performance. Typically that low of a driver rating, says that the driver performed outside of the top 10.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott keep impressing me week after week, how he can just improve throughout an event, with ease. This dude have impressive maturely for such a young driver, he will get his first career win soon, I think. He could be the next rookie that have a great run at Pocono. I think the equipment that he's in, will only make him better. Couple years ago, we saw Larson in his debut finish 5th place. I think Chase could have a opportunity to outdo that. It definitely won't because of lack of speed by the 24 car. Because that thing been a rocket all season, he almost a lock for a top 15 every time he goes to the track. I cannot remember a race this season, where the 24 car wasn't running inside the top 10. Watch out for the 24 car this weekend!
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is having himself a very nice season so far, after a rough start for him. After finishing 2 of the first 4 races outside of the top 20, Newman have finished 8 of the past 9 inside the top 18. Including 6 Top 14 finishes in those 8 races. He also been solid at Pocono recently (and his career). Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 19.3 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 77.4 driver rating. His numbers took a hit after posting finishes of 23rd and 39th in last season races. Rare poor finishes by Newman at Pocono. But to be, fair he had legit reasons for the poor outings. In the June race, he was running solidly in the teens all day long, before AJ Dinger wrecked him. After the race, Newman vowed to pay AJ Dinger back (he never made good on his promise). In the August race, he once again he ran quite well. But I am pretty sure he ran out of fuel in that race. So let's look at deeper into his career numbers! Over the past 18 races at Pocono, he have compiled 11.3 average finish with 12.2 average running position and 92.8 driver rating. Prior to his poor finishes last season, Newman had 9 straight Top 12 finishes. Including 5 in a row of 8th of better, heading into last June's race. I think he get back to his old ways at the Tricky Triangle. He loves this place and I think it loves him, too!
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is having himself an awesome season and he is one of the best at Pocono! He always been pretty good at this place. He had finishes of 37th and 5th in last season's race. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 110.1 driver rating. His numbers are pretty impressive, despite finishing 37th last season (-10 laps down). Overall, he have knocked off 8 Top 7 finishes over his past 12 races at Pocono. Including 3 Top 5 finishes over his past 5 races alone. The driver of the No.41 car have been super consistent this season and should be in for least another top 10 finish. I wouldn't count out a top 5 from him though.
42-Kyle Larson: I think Larson's performance at Charlotte, kind of erased any doubt about how weather Gannasi can give him quality cars. I always have viewed the cookie cutters as the measuring stick. Typically if you can least run top 10 on the cookie cutters, then you should be good most weekends. Pocono happens to be one of Larson's best tracks on the schedule. He haven't had a bad race yet, so there that too. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 9.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 95.1 driver rating. Minus last June's race, he have posted an driver rating above 95.0 in every race at Pocono so far. Last June, he posted 89.9 driver rating. Not too shabby either folks. Headed into the race, I think Larson is capable of a top 10 finish. If CGR gives Larson a fast piece, then well I wouldn't be shocked to see him contend for a top 5.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson broke out of his semi-slump at Charlotte and looks to pounce at one of his favorite racetracks (in Pocono). Last season he had a pair of solid runs with finishes of 6th and 3rd. He always been pretty good at Pocono and have won a total of 3 times in his career. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 96.2 driver rating. Johnson been really good here lately. Over his past 12 races at Pocono, he have posted 9 Top 6 finishes at this racetrack. More recently, he have compiled 4 Top 6 finishes in his past 6 races (dating back to 2013). He probably should have made it 5 Top 6 finishes in 6 races, but he got some damage (or something if I remember correctly) in the August 2013. Before that, he dominated that event from the pole. Headed into the race, I view Johnson as one of the favorites.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr is a freaking badass! He made the field look stupid last Sunday at Charlotte and I don't he gonna slow down either. Remember, Truex is the defending race winner this weekend. So don't be shocked to see him show up with another very fast car. He been good here lately. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 15.3 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Truex won this race last season and probably should have finished inside the top 5 in the August race. However he also ran out of fuel, I believe he was running 3rd or 4th before cars starting running out of fuel. No doubt that the 78 car was bad fast here last season and he probably even quicker this season. I think it going to be hard to beat the 78 car at Pocono. He might just win back-to-back races, I think he overdue for a multiple win-season!
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is having a pretty nice season overall, it is not a great season but he inching closer to a win. So when will it happen? I am not entirely sure, but it to happen eventually, right? Pocono would probably be his best spot (outside of the plates). Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 4.3 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. Listen to Dale Jr's recent Pocono finishes: 4th, 11th, 1st, 1st, and 3rd. Those are just his past 5 races at Pocono. Overall, he have finished 9 of his last 10 races at Pocono inside the top 11. Of those 9 Top 11 finishes, he have finished 8th or better in 9 of those races. Looking at the past few seasons, he have posted 5 Top 5 finishes at Pocono. Thinking about it, he got some damage at Pocono in last season's June race and finished 11th. If that didn't happen, he would have likely been riding an 6-race Top 5 streak into the weekend. Dale Jr definitely could be a very strong fantasy option for those that choose to go that route. I like him plenty at Pocono!
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Preview -
1-JMac: The No.1 car have struggled all season to find speed, even with the latest improvements shown by his teammate. In fact, I would argue that JMac have taken a step back over the past month. No, really he have actually taken a step back over his past 3 Sprint Cup races. But honestly outside of a couple races this season, Jamie rarely have been a top 15 driver for an event. I just think it now more eye-opening since Larson is showing improvements. I am not very high on the Driver of the No.1 car this weekend at Pocono. Even with a great track at Pocono like he has, I don't really trust him to be a top 15 driver entering the race. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 9.8 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 88.7 driver rating. Going back further, he have posted 8 straight Top 17 finishes. With 5 Top 15 finishes over his past 6 Pocono, including 3 straight Top 10 finishes before finishing 15th last August. Great numbers overall since the 2012 season. So why don't I like him? Past stats means shit to me honestly. They aren't worthless, since there is no other comparable track to link Pocono with (other than Indy). However, when a driver haven't shown top 15 speed in weeks, I find it difficult to trust them honestly.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is coming off one of his better results of the season at Charlotte (where he finished 5th). Keselowski have been a consistent finisher this season, with 9 Top 10 finishes in 13 races and should add to that total on Sunday at Pocono. He been very good in the past at the ''Tricky Triangle'' and should be once again. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 102.1 driver rating. In that 4-race span, Brad has two strong finishes (2nd place twice) and two poor finishes (23rd and 17th). To be fair, Penske was off at this time last season in my opinion. So that probably effected Brad's performance a little. However he came back last August and showed that he can run well at Pocono! As much as I like Brad heading into the weekend, I don't know if he'll get the finish he deserves. Why? Well, over the 4 of the 5 past June races (at Pocono), he have finished 16th or worse. His lone good result? 2nd place in June 2014. In the August race since the 2011 season? His finishes read: 2nd (2015), 23rd (2014), 6th (2013), 4th (2012) and 1st (2011). Point being? Trends say Brad will finish better in the August race.
3-Austin Dillon: With all the hype surrounding, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson lately, I think Austin Dillon have got lost in the shuffle. That shouldn't take away from the fact that Austin Dillon is having his best year of his career in the Sprint Cup Series. With another solid effort at Charlotte this past Sunday (12th place). Much like Larson, Austin Dillon have found a decent deal of success at Pocono Raceway so far in his young career. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. However 3 of those 4 races are irrelevant to me personally. The only event that I am focusing on is last August race (August 2015), which is the only race where he had Slugger as his Crew Chief. In that event, he started 4th, finished 13th, and posted 12.0 average running position and 91.7 driver rating. Those are realistically around the type of numbers I am expecting from Dillon this weekend. Qualify well, perform and finish in the lower to mid teens.
4-Kevin Harvick: Kevin Harvick wasn't great on last Sunday night, but he still found a way to finish an impressive 2nd place. I say that because, he wasn't all too good at Charlotte for the event. But when it mattered most, his crew was able to fix him up and make his car fast! So what to expect from him at Pocono? I expect, he will have one of the best cars this weekend (as usual). He been very good at Pocono, but his finishes don't quite show it though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 15.0 average running position and 101.9 driver rating. His driver rating shows he been pretty fast. However the problem is, a blown engine really effects how that driver rating looks. Trust me, he been better than that 101.9. Even though that isn't nothing to laugh. In last August race, he finished 42nd after blowing his engine after just 20 laps. In the June race, he was very strong and finished 2nd after leading 39 laps. His first bad race at Pocono was back in June 2014. It wasn't a bad bad race, but he finished 14th. And honestly he easily had a top 5 car for that race. If I remember correctly, Harvick lost a couple laps early in the event because he had to make an unscheduled pit stop. He came back in the August race and finished 2nd place after leading 5 laps on that day. Harvick is one of the favorites and will definitely be someone you have to beat to take the checkers!
5-Kasey Kahne: After 13 races, it is clear that Kasey Kahne isn't legit and probably shouldn't be trusted. His performance this season on most weekends have been poor and it doesn't look like he will suddenly start running competitively anytime soon. Even though I will give him credit with finishing 22nd at Charlotte. Considering he made several unscheduled pit stops during the 600, the fact that he finished that well is probably a victory for him. But I don't trust him at Pocono. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 27.0 average finish with 20.5 average running position and 73.6 driver rating. Since the 2011 season, Kahne's have been super inconsistent at Pocono. How inconsistent? Every single season over the past 5 years, he have one poor finish (outside of the top 20) and one solid result (inside the top 15)! With that said, most of his good outcomes have came at the August race. From 2012 to 2014, Kahne was a stud in the August race with 3 straight Top 6 finishes. Including 2 Top 2 finishes in 3 races. However last season, he decided to flip the script on us and finish 13th in the June race and 43rd in the August race. Only other time, he finished well in the June race? 2011, where Kahne finished 6th place. Of course that just the most recent of Kahne's finishes at Pocono. He have posted 8 Top 10 finishes in 24 career starts. 6 of those 8 Top 10 finishes have came in the August race. Including his previous 5 Top 10 finishes at this track. Point being I guess is, Kahne more than likely will finish better in the August race.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin remains the weak link in the JGR organization this season with his inconsistency. He also seems likely the slowest JGR car this as well. However he is making solid gains overall though. Hamlin did finish top 10 at Charlotte and contended at Kansas, until he made that crazy move with about 30 laps to go. So what can we expect from him at Pocono? Hard to say, but I like him a lot this weekend actually. Pocono always been a pretty solid racetrack for him. He haven't been quite as good as he once was though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.3 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 99.7 driver rating. He started off his career with 4 wins in his first 9 career starts. In fact, he finished 6th or better in 7 of his first 9 races here. However he have cooled off considerably over the past 3 seasons here though. Over the past 6 races, he have posted 4 Top 10 finishes. However only once have he finished inside the top 5. He probably would have made it 5 Top 10 finishes, but remember tons of drivers ran out of fuel last August here. Hamlin was one of those drivers. So it not like Hamlin is running poorly at Pocono, he just isn't living up to his standard at this place. I honestly believe Hamlin is overdue for a strong performance here, so don't too shocked to see him run well on Sunday. I like him as a solid under the radar fantasy pick.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: After 13 races this season, Stenhouse have finished 16th or better in 9 of those races. It kinda shocking that more people have not taken advantage of his consistency this season. If we take out the Richmond race (he was top 10 strong by the way, before issues), his last finish worse than 16th place was back at Martinsville. Which is basically two months ago! However he have a sizable challenge ahead this weekend at Pocono. The Tricky Triangle have been a bit tricky for Stenhouse to figure out so far in his career. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 29.0 average finish with 28.8 average running position and 53.5 driver rating. In fact, in 6 career starts, he have only managed 2 Top 18 finishes. His other 4 races? 26th or worse. 3 of those 4 races have ended outside of the top 30. Those are some terrible numbers! Now while those are really ugly numbers, I think we will see a vast improvement from the driver of the No.17 car. Why that? Well, for starters I think Ricky is much more competitively this season than in the previous seasons. I think that will definitely help him in his overall performance, which will lead to better fantasy production. Heading into the weekend, I pin Stenhouse as a top 20-ish driver probably. Maybe a little outside of the top 20, with how bad his track record have been.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy is having a tough couple weeks, since he have won at Kansas. Personally, I think the No.18 team is trying different things out the past couple races. So what can we expect from the 18 car at Pocono? I think, we will see Kyle back contending for a solid run. This been a up and down racetrack for Rowdy. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 81.2 driver rating. Over the past 12 races overall, Kyle have finished half (6) inside the top 10. So like I said, this have been a up and down racetrack for him. However, here is trend some of you may like though: 5 of the past 6 June Pocono races have ended inside the top 10 for Kyle. Truthfully, last August Kyle probably should have finished 1st or 2nd. More than likely 2nd (Joey dominated the event), but remember most of the field ran out of fuel before the checkers waved though. I like the 18 car this week (as I do most weekends), but I am kinda nervous since Kyle is prong to go on cold and hot streaks throughout the season.
19-Carl Edwards: Carl Edwards is having a tough 3-race stench, where he have finished outside of the top 10 in 4 straight races. He only finished worse than 7th once (Las Vegas - got some damage from a wreck and finished 18th) in the first 9 races. But he will have a chance to rebound this weekend at Pocono though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 23.8 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 83.7 driver rating. Last season in his first season with JGR, Edwards did decent overall I would say. In 2 races in 2015, he had finishes of 15th and 10th. In the June event, he finished 15th and led 16 laps after starting on the front row (2nd). He was obviously much better than his 15th place finish though. In the August race, he wasn't anything special but he hung around that position for most of the event. Edwards needs to break out his slump and Pocono could be a good place to do it! I have him as top 10 driver headed into the weekend.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth was the only driver to finish inside the top 10 in both races last season, but he wasn't the best driver. He actually won the August race, but he was one of the few top drivers who didn't run out of fuel. He just happen to be the first one not to run out, probably some luck involved in that. A win is a win and he was fairly competitive in that race, too. However I wouldn't call this a Matt Kenseth type racetrack. It isn't his worst track, but not a great one either though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 17.5 average finish with 16.8 average running positon and 84.7 driver rating. Prior to finishing 6th and 1st in last season races at Pocono, Kenseth only had 2 Top 10 finishes over his previous 13 races here. In fact, entering last June's race he was on a 5-race streak that consisted of 5 straight finishes outside of the top 20. Maybe last season was a turning point for him? Maybe. Maybe not. I guess we will find out this weekend.
21-Ryan Blaney: There isn't a lot to go on with Ryan Blaney, since he haven't made any Cup starts at the Tricky Triangle. However the Tricky Triangle have been kind to rookies in the past and it isn't uncommon to see young drivers find success here in their early years. I actually like Blaney a lot more here than I did last week at Charlotte. Headed into the weekend, I view Blaney as top 20 driver with the potential to steal a top 15 finish or even better. But first I want to see how he looks in practice. This kid have what it takes to be a solid fantasy option this weekend, if he plays his cards correctly.
22-Joey Logano: Logano dominated this race last season (in August), but he ran out of fuel before he could take the checkers. I think it was pretty obviously that he was gonna run out of fuel. He was running too hard to save enough fuel for the end. In that event, he led 97 of 160 laps before finishing 20th place. He wasn't nearly (he was considerably off) as good in the June race, but still somehow managed an 4th place finish. Pocono have been a very good track for Joey so far in his Cup career. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 16.8 average finish with 9.3 average running position and 105.3 driver rating. Over his past 10 races at Pocono, he have managed 7 Top 13 finishes. Including 4 Top 4 finishes, with a win coming back in 2012. However, his best three races (performance wise) have came in the past 3 August races though. In fact, his best driver rating over the past three June races have been only 88.7. A driver rating is a great tool to judge a driver's overall performance. Typically that low of a driver rating, says that the driver performed outside of the top 10.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott keep impressing me week after week, how he can just improve throughout an event, with ease. This dude have impressive maturely for such a young driver, he will get his first career win soon, I think. He could be the next rookie that have a great run at Pocono. I think the equipment that he's in, will only make him better. Couple years ago, we saw Larson in his debut finish 5th place. I think Chase could have a opportunity to outdo that. It definitely won't because of lack of speed by the 24 car. Because that thing been a rocket all season, he almost a lock for a top 15 every time he goes to the track. I cannot remember a race this season, where the 24 car wasn't running inside the top 10. Watch out for the 24 car this weekend!
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is having himself a very nice season so far, after a rough start for him. After finishing 2 of the first 4 races outside of the top 20, Newman have finished 8 of the past 9 inside the top 18. Including 6 Top 14 finishes in those 8 races. He also been solid at Pocono recently (and his career). Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 19.3 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 77.4 driver rating. His numbers took a hit after posting finishes of 23rd and 39th in last season races. Rare poor finishes by Newman at Pocono. But to be, fair he had legit reasons for the poor outings. In the June race, he was running solidly in the teens all day long, before AJ Dinger wrecked him. After the race, Newman vowed to pay AJ Dinger back (he never made good on his promise). In the August race, he once again he ran quite well. But I am pretty sure he ran out of fuel in that race. So let's look at deeper into his career numbers! Over the past 18 races at Pocono, he have compiled 11.3 average finish with 12.2 average running position and 92.8 driver rating. Prior to his poor finishes last season, Newman had 9 straight Top 12 finishes. Including 5 in a row of 8th of better, heading into last June's race. I think he get back to his old ways at the Tricky Triangle. He loves this place and I think it loves him, too!
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is having himself an awesome season and he is one of the best at Pocono! He always been pretty good at this place. He had finishes of 37th and 5th in last season's race. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.5 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 110.1 driver rating. His numbers are pretty impressive, despite finishing 37th last season (-10 laps down). Overall, he have knocked off 8 Top 7 finishes over his past 12 races at Pocono. Including 3 Top 5 finishes over his past 5 races alone. The driver of the No.41 car have been super consistent this season and should be in for least another top 10 finish. I wouldn't count out a top 5 from him though.
42-Kyle Larson: I think Larson's performance at Charlotte, kind of erased any doubt about how weather Gannasi can give him quality cars. I always have viewed the cookie cutters as the measuring stick. Typically if you can least run top 10 on the cookie cutters, then you should be good most weekends. Pocono happens to be one of Larson's best tracks on the schedule. He haven't had a bad race yet, so there that too. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 9.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 95.1 driver rating. Minus last June's race, he have posted an driver rating above 95.0 in every race at Pocono so far. Last June, he posted 89.9 driver rating. Not too shabby either folks. Headed into the race, I think Larson is capable of a top 10 finish. If CGR gives Larson a fast piece, then well I wouldn't be shocked to see him contend for a top 5.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson broke out of his semi-slump at Charlotte and looks to pounce at one of his favorite racetracks (in Pocono). Last season he had a pair of solid runs with finishes of 6th and 3rd. He always been pretty good at Pocono and have won a total of 3 times in his career. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 96.2 driver rating. Johnson been really good here lately. Over his past 12 races at Pocono, he have posted 9 Top 6 finishes at this racetrack. More recently, he have compiled 4 Top 6 finishes in his past 6 races (dating back to 2013). He probably should have made it 5 Top 6 finishes in 6 races, but he got some damage (or something if I remember correctly) in the August 2013. Before that, he dominated that event from the pole. Headed into the race, I view Johnson as one of the favorites.
78-Martin Truex Jr: Martin Truex Jr is a freaking badass! He made the field look stupid last Sunday at Charlotte and I don't he gonna slow down either. Remember, Truex is the defending race winner this weekend. So don't be shocked to see him show up with another very fast car. He been good here lately. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 15.3 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 99.9 driver rating. Truex won this race last season and probably should have finished inside the top 5 in the August race. However he also ran out of fuel, I believe he was running 3rd or 4th before cars starting running out of fuel. No doubt that the 78 car was bad fast here last season and he probably even quicker this season. I think it going to be hard to beat the 78 car at Pocono. He might just win back-to-back races, I think he overdue for a multiple win-season!
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr is having a pretty nice season overall, it is not a great season but he inching closer to a win. So when will it happen? I am not entirely sure, but it to happen eventually, right? Pocono would probably be his best spot (outside of the plates). Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 4.3 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 111.6 driver rating. Listen to Dale Jr's recent Pocono finishes: 4th, 11th, 1st, 1st, and 3rd. Those are just his past 5 races at Pocono. Overall, he have finished 9 of his last 10 races at Pocono inside the top 11. Of those 9 Top 11 finishes, he have finished 8th or better in 9 of those races. Looking at the past few seasons, he have posted 5 Top 5 finishes at Pocono. Thinking about it, he got some damage at Pocono in last season's June race and finished 11th. If that didn't happen, he would have likely been riding an 6-race Top 5 streak into the weekend. Dale Jr definitely could be a very strong fantasy option for those that choose to go that route. I like him plenty at Pocono!
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
