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This is been for a long time one of my favorite tracks. I think from a fantasy vantage point, it is a difficult venue to make picks at. In general, I think unique tracks such as Dover are difficult to handicap in the first place. Anyhow on Friday there was scheduled to be one practice session and a qualifying session, which would have determined the starting lineup for Sunday's race. However while all of practice was held, the qualifying session was rained out after they lost the track to rain. On Saturday, there was two addition scheduled practice sessions. I would personally put more into the first session on Saturday than the second session. As the temps will be more similar in the morning times since it will be warmer on Saturday than Sunday. Around racetime on Sunday, it will be about 50-something degrees. It was in the lower 60s in the first practice. It was 70 at start of final practice. Also the rubber will be washed away at start of Sunday's race, with that said the rubber wasn't quite as built up in the morning session. Confusing, I know. Anyhow, below is how I see the field stacking up on Sunday. Enjoy!
**My Overall Rankings are based on the following: practice efforts, starting position, season success, momentum, track history and personal opinions/judgements
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick starts from the pole and in my opinion the man to beat. I considered Kyle Busch for this spot as I thought he had a great car too. But Harvick dominances of late was what sealed his fate in the No.1 spot. He have dominated the past two of three Dover races. And he had the second-best car last spring here to Martin Truex Jr. And heck I would even make a argument that he was better than Truex at times. Of course in 2014 (Spring race), he had early problems that led him to a long day. If that didn't happen, I would say he would have been the man to beat. But that a ''what if'' game. As far as this week, the No.4 car been very fast since unloading here. He have shown speed in all three practice this weekend and seems to be good on the short and long runs. Harvick and the 4 team was pretty pleased with the balance overall. Another reason I ranked Harvick as number 1 is because of pit road. Dover have bigger pit stalls than previously, but that number 1 pit stall is huge in my opinion.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch have been a man on a mission this season and he just may have the car to beat this weekend. The No.18 car will roll off from the 3rd starting position, but I think he will be tough to beat once he takes the lead. Busch looked like he had the best car throughout the Saturday morning session and seems very strong on the long runs. He wasn't quite as good in final practice, but still top 5 strong in my opinion. Busch have been on a tear of late as well. With 5 Top 2 finishes over his past 6 races. Kyle have had a couple DNFs over the past few Dover races, but I think there is a strong possibility that Kyle grabs his first win at Dover since the 2010 season. Chevy have dominated here in years past, but if anyone have their number in the Toyota camp, then it is Kyle Busch. He has two wins at this track since joining Toyota in 2008. In fact, those two wins remains the lone two wins for Toyota at Dover in the cup series. Be watching the 18 car on Sunday!
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson doesn't have a dominating look to him this weekend, but they have gotten that No.48 car better and better as the weekend have gone on. Johnson is a 10-time winner and many people were shocked when he only posted the 21st-best single lap on Friday afternoon. No worries, because Chad and the guys fixed him up nicely on Saturday. He was good in the morning session on Saturday. He struggled a bit, but Johnson seemed happier towards end of the session. In final practice, I thought they got the 48 car almost where they want him. They was there with some of the fastest cars in terms of speed/lap times. I think they'll be alright come Sunday!
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Joey Logano - Logano starts deep in the field, but he is one of the most consistent fantasy options at Dover. He is riding an 8-race Top 10 streak at Dover and this is his best racetrack from a career point of view. Not only have he found success at Penske, but he was also fairly successful with JGR. He wasn't blazing fast in practice, but I fully expect him to drive up through the field and contend for least a top 10 and hopefully a top 5 run at some point. Based on practice speed, I would say the top 5 is out of reach. But he usually get better as the race goes on, so I am not too worried about lack of speed. I am sure the 22 team will get him up there contending at some point or another. You can pass at Dover, so don't worry about the poor starting position either. When taking everything into consideration, I view him as a top borderline top 5/Top 10 driver. I think he finishes in the 5th-8th place range when the checkers waves.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
5. Matt Kenseth - I debated about a couple of drivers for this spot, but in the end I went with the driver who have found the most success at Dover. Kenseth wasn't overly fast like his teammates were, but I think the 20 car will be solid on Sunday. Kenseth have a knack for running well at Dover and there no reason to think he won't be contending for least a top 10 finish on Sunday afternoon. JGR have dominated in recent weeks in the Sprint Cup Series and Dover doesn't look to be any different to be honest from what I have seen so far. Sure, Kenseth have had a lot of bad luck this season but this is also a great racetrack for him. 8 Top 7 finishes over his past 10 races here, and would have made it 9 , if he didn't have mechanical issues last spring while running top 5.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
Other Options - Dale Jr (8th), Denny Hamlin (9th), Kurt Busch (10th) and Brad Keselowski (13th)
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Okay Edwards isn't as strong as teammate Kyle Busch, but I still thought he was very good. He seems to fall off a little more than the 18 car to start a run, but he remains consistent on the long runs in race trim in my opinion in the morning session. I don't recall him making any long runs in final practice. However, Edwards also have a very impressive track record at Dover and that itself gives him a bit of bump in my rankings. Also the fact that he have ran so very well this season was also something I took into consideration when compiling my rankings. I guess my point being, Edwards hit on every aspect when looking for an ideal fantasy pick! Consistent this season and at Dover, solid practice results and a top 5 starting position. I don't really see any reason to not trust him at one of his best tracks.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
2. Martin Truex Jr: I honestly thought that Martin Truex Jr would have been better than he actually have been this weekend. With that said, he been good since unloading at Dover. Just not fast as he was at Kansas last week. But I guess that couldn't be expected though, since he was basically untouchable most of the race. Truex showed speed in both practice sessions, but I thought they got him much better in final practice. He don't have the dominating car, but he has quality top 5 or at worst top 10 ride. Remember this is a great racetrack for him and led 131 laps to an 6th place finish last spring. Also know he won his first career race in 2007 at this place and have 8 Top 15 finishes over his past 10 races. Including 6 Top 8 finishes in that 10-race span. What to like even more? He have better equipment than he was in all of those races, considering how fast the Toyota been this season.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
3. Ryan Newman - Ryan Newman is having a very solid weekend without many people talking about him. That is so a Ryan Newman weekend though. Newman typically shows up with a solid top 15 car and post lap times around that area. This weekend however it different, he have shown top 10 speed and that should speak volume how good of a car he has. Newman and the 31 team was happy with their car all day on Saturday. When Newman is happy with his car, it is a usually a good sign for things to come. Austin Dillon have been the one with all of the media buzz this season, but Ryan Newman may be the headliner at Dover though. Newman lap times were consistent all day long.
My Overall Ranking: 11th
4. Kyle Larson - My dark horse for Dover? Kyle Larson. He was consistently among the fast cars throughout the day on Saturday and have a impressive young career at Dover already under his belt. The 42 team seems to be hitting on something of late and bringing some solid cars to the track. Larson was good in both sessions on Saturday, but I thought he was better on the shorter runs though. I think Larson will have a great shot at a solid finish at Dover. In final practice, Larson was on the track usually about the same time as Kevin Harvick was, so logically I was comparing their lap times. The 42 car's lap times stacked up pretty well vs the 4 car's lap times. He starting deeper in the field than I would have liked, but I am not concerned about it. My concern about Larson? Him finishing the race.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
5. Kasey Kahne - I didn't really pay much attention to the 5 car on Saturday, but I honestly wouldn't get too excited about him. Sure, he starts from the 11th starting position but I don't know if he can move forward from there. Kahne always seems to fade through the running order at some point in a Cup race. At Dover, I don't know if you can fade too far without getting lapped. Remember this is only a one-mile racetrack, so getting lapped is pretty easy. I cannot really give any real insight into Kahne since he wasn't on my fantasy radar. But based on common knowledge, he probably a top 15 driver headed in and that pretty much about it.
My Overall Ranking: 14th
Other Options - Ricky Stenhouse (15th), Jamie Mac (17th), Austin Dillon (19th) and Paul Menard (20th)
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott have looked really good this weekend at Dover and will try to translate that into his first career win. Can he do it? He definitely in the right equipment to do it. I thought he was good in the first session and just got better in as the track built up more rubber. I thought Elliott showed top 10 speed all day on Saturday and he could be in for another impressive showing. I view him as a top 15 driver headed into, but that only because I like tempering my expectations, even though I fully know he will be least top 10 good. Watch out for the 24 car!
My Overall Ranking: 16th
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney have looked good this weekend, but he is getting overshadowed by fellow rookie driver Chase Elliott. I like Blaney a lot this week, in fact I like him more after watching practice. He will roll off from the 18th starting position and will be a top 15 contender most likely. I didn't pay too much attention to him, but I did track his lap times when Elliott was on the track. He fell off more than the 24 car did, but not too bad though. The big question with the 21 this season have been: Can he finish strong? Last week at Kansas, he did exactly that! Can he go back-to-back top 10 finishes? We will find out
My Overall Ranking: 18th
3. Brian Scott - Headed into the week, I thought there was a couple of drivers that could make some noise this week in this tier of drivers. But Scott have looked like the best driver behind Elliott and Blaney. And he wasn't too happy with his car overall on Saturday. He complained about not turning well enough. Toward end of final practice, they got him better though. He probably a top 25 driver at best headed into Sunday's race in my opinion.
My Overall Ranking: 25th
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
This is been for a long time one of my favorite tracks. I think from a fantasy vantage point, it is a difficult venue to make picks at. In general, I think unique tracks such as Dover are difficult to handicap in the first place. Anyhow on Friday there was scheduled to be one practice session and a qualifying session, which would have determined the starting lineup for Sunday's race. However while all of practice was held, the qualifying session was rained out after they lost the track to rain. On Saturday, there was two addition scheduled practice sessions. I would personally put more into the first session on Saturday than the second session. As the temps will be more similar in the morning times since it will be warmer on Saturday than Sunday. Around racetime on Sunday, it will be about 50-something degrees. It was in the lower 60s in the first practice. It was 70 at start of final practice. Also the rubber will be washed away at start of Sunday's race, with that said the rubber wasn't quite as built up in the morning session. Confusing, I know. Anyhow, below is how I see the field stacking up on Sunday. Enjoy!
**My Overall Rankings are based on the following: practice efforts, starting position, season success, momentum, track history and personal opinions/judgements
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - Harvick starts from the pole and in my opinion the man to beat. I considered Kyle Busch for this spot as I thought he had a great car too. But Harvick dominances of late was what sealed his fate in the No.1 spot. He have dominated the past two of three Dover races. And he had the second-best car last spring here to Martin Truex Jr. And heck I would even make a argument that he was better than Truex at times. Of course in 2014 (Spring race), he had early problems that led him to a long day. If that didn't happen, I would say he would have been the man to beat. But that a ''what if'' game. As far as this week, the No.4 car been very fast since unloading here. He have shown speed in all three practice this weekend and seems to be good on the short and long runs. Harvick and the 4 team was pretty pleased with the balance overall. Another reason I ranked Harvick as number 1 is because of pit road. Dover have bigger pit stalls than previously, but that number 1 pit stall is huge in my opinion.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch have been a man on a mission this season and he just may have the car to beat this weekend. The No.18 car will roll off from the 3rd starting position, but I think he will be tough to beat once he takes the lead. Busch looked like he had the best car throughout the Saturday morning session and seems very strong on the long runs. He wasn't quite as good in final practice, but still top 5 strong in my opinion. Busch have been on a tear of late as well. With 5 Top 2 finishes over his past 6 races. Kyle have had a couple DNFs over the past few Dover races, but I think there is a strong possibility that Kyle grabs his first win at Dover since the 2010 season. Chevy have dominated here in years past, but if anyone have their number in the Toyota camp, then it is Kyle Busch. He has two wins at this track since joining Toyota in 2008. In fact, those two wins remains the lone two wins for Toyota at Dover in the cup series. Be watching the 18 car on Sunday!
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Jimmie Johnson - Jimmie Johnson doesn't have a dominating look to him this weekend, but they have gotten that No.48 car better and better as the weekend have gone on. Johnson is a 10-time winner and many people were shocked when he only posted the 21st-best single lap on Friday afternoon. No worries, because Chad and the guys fixed him up nicely on Saturday. He was good in the morning session on Saturday. He struggled a bit, but Johnson seemed happier towards end of the session. In final practice, I thought they got the 48 car almost where they want him. They was there with some of the fastest cars in terms of speed/lap times. I think they'll be alright come Sunday!
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
4. Joey Logano - Logano starts deep in the field, but he is one of the most consistent fantasy options at Dover. He is riding an 8-race Top 10 streak at Dover and this is his best racetrack from a career point of view. Not only have he found success at Penske, but he was also fairly successful with JGR. He wasn't blazing fast in practice, but I fully expect him to drive up through the field and contend for least a top 10 and hopefully a top 5 run at some point. Based on practice speed, I would say the top 5 is out of reach. But he usually get better as the race goes on, so I am not too worried about lack of speed. I am sure the 22 team will get him up there contending at some point or another. You can pass at Dover, so don't worry about the poor starting position either. When taking everything into consideration, I view him as a top borderline top 5/Top 10 driver. I think he finishes in the 5th-8th place range when the checkers waves.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
5. Matt Kenseth - I debated about a couple of drivers for this spot, but in the end I went with the driver who have found the most success at Dover. Kenseth wasn't overly fast like his teammates were, but I think the 20 car will be solid on Sunday. Kenseth have a knack for running well at Dover and there no reason to think he won't be contending for least a top 10 finish on Sunday afternoon. JGR have dominated in recent weeks in the Sprint Cup Series and Dover doesn't look to be any different to be honest from what I have seen so far. Sure, Kenseth have had a lot of bad luck this season but this is also a great racetrack for him. 8 Top 7 finishes over his past 10 races here, and would have made it 9 , if he didn't have mechanical issues last spring while running top 5.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
Other Options - Dale Jr (8th), Denny Hamlin (9th), Kurt Busch (10th) and Brad Keselowski (13th)
B:
1. Carl Edwards - Okay Edwards isn't as strong as teammate Kyle Busch, but I still thought he was very good. He seems to fall off a little more than the 18 car to start a run, but he remains consistent on the long runs in race trim in my opinion in the morning session. I don't recall him making any long runs in final practice. However, Edwards also have a very impressive track record at Dover and that itself gives him a bit of bump in my rankings. Also the fact that he have ran so very well this season was also something I took into consideration when compiling my rankings. I guess my point being, Edwards hit on every aspect when looking for an ideal fantasy pick! Consistent this season and at Dover, solid practice results and a top 5 starting position. I don't really see any reason to not trust him at one of his best tracks.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
2. Martin Truex Jr: I honestly thought that Martin Truex Jr would have been better than he actually have been this weekend. With that said, he been good since unloading at Dover. Just not fast as he was at Kansas last week. But I guess that couldn't be expected though, since he was basically untouchable most of the race. Truex showed speed in both practice sessions, but I thought they got him much better in final practice. He don't have the dominating car, but he has quality top 5 or at worst top 10 ride. Remember this is a great racetrack for him and led 131 laps to an 6th place finish last spring. Also know he won his first career race in 2007 at this place and have 8 Top 15 finishes over his past 10 races. Including 6 Top 8 finishes in that 10-race span. What to like even more? He have better equipment than he was in all of those races, considering how fast the Toyota been this season.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
3. Ryan Newman - Ryan Newman is having a very solid weekend without many people talking about him. That is so a Ryan Newman weekend though. Newman typically shows up with a solid top 15 car and post lap times around that area. This weekend however it different, he have shown top 10 speed and that should speak volume how good of a car he has. Newman and the 31 team was happy with their car all day on Saturday. When Newman is happy with his car, it is a usually a good sign for things to come. Austin Dillon have been the one with all of the media buzz this season, but Ryan Newman may be the headliner at Dover though. Newman lap times were consistent all day long.
My Overall Ranking: 11th
4. Kyle Larson - My dark horse for Dover? Kyle Larson. He was consistently among the fast cars throughout the day on Saturday and have a impressive young career at Dover already under his belt. The 42 team seems to be hitting on something of late and bringing some solid cars to the track. Larson was good in both sessions on Saturday, but I thought he was better on the shorter runs though. I think Larson will have a great shot at a solid finish at Dover. In final practice, Larson was on the track usually about the same time as Kevin Harvick was, so logically I was comparing their lap times. The 42 car's lap times stacked up pretty well vs the 4 car's lap times. He starting deeper in the field than I would have liked, but I am not concerned about it. My concern about Larson? Him finishing the race.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
5. Kasey Kahne - I didn't really pay much attention to the 5 car on Saturday, but I honestly wouldn't get too excited about him. Sure, he starts from the 11th starting position but I don't know if he can move forward from there. Kahne always seems to fade through the running order at some point in a Cup race. At Dover, I don't know if you can fade too far without getting lapped. Remember this is only a one-mile racetrack, so getting lapped is pretty easy. I cannot really give any real insight into Kahne since he wasn't on my fantasy radar. But based on common knowledge, he probably a top 15 driver headed in and that pretty much about it.
My Overall Ranking: 14th
Other Options - Ricky Stenhouse (15th), Jamie Mac (17th), Austin Dillon (19th) and Paul Menard (20th)
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott have looked really good this weekend at Dover and will try to translate that into his first career win. Can he do it? He definitely in the right equipment to do it. I thought he was good in the first session and just got better in as the track built up more rubber. I thought Elliott showed top 10 speed all day on Saturday and he could be in for another impressive showing. I view him as a top 15 driver headed into, but that only because I like tempering my expectations, even though I fully know he will be least top 10 good. Watch out for the 24 car!
My Overall Ranking: 16th
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney have looked good this weekend, but he is getting overshadowed by fellow rookie driver Chase Elliott. I like Blaney a lot this week, in fact I like him more after watching practice. He will roll off from the 18th starting position and will be a top 15 contender most likely. I didn't pay too much attention to him, but I did track his lap times when Elliott was on the track. He fell off more than the 24 car did, but not too bad though. The big question with the 21 this season have been: Can he finish strong? Last week at Kansas, he did exactly that! Can he go back-to-back top 10 finishes? We will find out
My Overall Ranking: 18th
3. Brian Scott - Headed into the week, I thought there was a couple of drivers that could make some noise this week in this tier of drivers. But Scott have looked like the best driver behind Elliott and Blaney. And he wasn't too happy with his car overall on Saturday. He complained about not turning well enough. Toward end of final practice, they got him better though. He probably a top 25 driver at best headed into Sunday's race in my opinion.
My Overall Ranking: 25th
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
