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We are at Kansas Speedway this weekend for Saturday night's race. I have never liked night races because of the practice schedule setup. Typically all of the practices are ran same as qualifying (day before race - minus The 600 of course). I personally think it puts us fantasy players in a difficult situation when figuring out who will be fast for the race. With the ever changing track conditions. Just because you are good in practice, doesn't mean you will fare well in the race. The roles can reverse, where you suck in practice but be good in the race. Point being, it not ideal to practice in daytime temps and race under the lights! With that said, I'll take recent track history more into account than I usually do.
Kansas is a 1.5 mile intermediate racetrack. This track is most similar to Las Vegas with it limited fall-off on the tire. We won't see the major drop-off in lap times like we saw at Texas (the last 1.5 miler). I also think, we will see a lot of pit strategies being played from the very first caution of the night. 2 tire, 4 tires or heck even no tires. A place like Kansas will allow teams to play with the pit strategies, because the fall-off isn't all too noticeable. Meaning a driver on 4 fresh tires isn't going to have a huge advantage over a driver with 2 tires. Least not like we saw at some of the other track this year.
Alright let's dig into today's fantasy update!
***My ranks are based on practice results, qualifying results, track history, season's consistency and personal opinions
A:
1. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson will roll off from the 15th starting position. There was real scare with him in final practice. He made his mock qualifying run, but there came some smoke from hood of his car. Turns out his engine was running backwards. Similar thing happened with Kasey Kahne few months back at Phoenix. Unlike Kahne, Hendrick MotorSports was prepared for this and was able to shut the car off without damaging his engine. Later in that final practice session, he went back out and posted some more fast laps. Johnson was really fast in both sessions overall. In the first session of the day on Friday, he was really strong throughout his first run. In final practice, he focused more on qualifying trim than anything. The 48 is pretty much a top 5 lock in my opinion. I don't think that issue with the ECU will be much of issue for the race. He is fast and I view him as one of the heavy favorites! Johnson have 13 Top 10 finishes over his past 14 Kansas races. For those that like a driver with a strong track history. He is also the defending race winner, so there that too.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Joey Logano - Logano have been a stud at Kansas since joining Penske! He have managed 5 straight Top 5 finishes and have won 2 of the last 3 races. Even though both of them have came in the fall. He finished 5th last season in this event. Logano didn't focus on qualifying trim until very late in final practice. Logano is better than his practice results indicates. In final practice, he was consistently among the fast cars. On his long run in practice I tracked, he was still running in the 30.00s. Some of his comp was dipping down into the 30.20s. Like I said, he was very consistent overall. I like him a lot for Saturday's night. What put him over the top over other drivers was the Vegas's race. I keep thinking back to that race and how strong he was in that event. Honestly only teammate Brad Keselowski was better than him on the longer runs. So it wasn't too surprising to see him display solid long run speed in practice. Logano will off from the 14th starting position, but I don't think that will have too much of a effect on him. I think he will be able to drive through the field and contend for a top 5 finish before the checkers waves.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth will roll off from the 2nd starting positon and was one of the best cars in both practice sessions. He was consistently among the quickest cars on the track throughtout back sessions on Friday. This doesn't surprise me one bit honestly. He been fast everywhere we have gone this season and Kansas isn't any different. He led 154 laps in last October's event before getting dumped by Joey Logano in the closing laps. And that not the first time, Kenseth have won success here. He is currently on a 11-race Top 15 streak at Kansas, including 8 Top 10 finishes in that span. Kenseth have two wins since the repave was done and will look to add to it on Saturday night. He should have top 5 potential, but is his bad luck finally gone? We will find out I guess.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
4. Kevin Harvick - Harvick headed into the weekend as one of the heavy favorites, but there major doubt that he remains a heavy favorite after an unimpressive qualifying effort on Friday night. Harvick will start very deep in the field ,outside of the top 25. Harvick should be able to make it through the field and into the top 10. But I don't think he get much further than that though. In practice, I thought he was good in racetrim. Just good though. Not great. I thought he fell off too much compared to the fasters cars. He was off a couple tenths to the front runners on the longer runs I tracked. Thinking back on it, I guess we should have seen this coming. He wasn't overly impressive at Vegas in March. He was good, but only top 10 and finished 5th. We could be in for another performance like that. Just me guessing, but I don't get the feeling that Harvick will be able to race into the lead without some pit strategy. Of course, we practiced during the day, so we could see completely different outcomes. Either way I am excited to see how the 4 car does.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
5. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch seemed off in my opinion in practice, but they got him dialed in for qualifying though. I like Kyle this week, but I am not sure if he have the speed to go out there and dominate. Even though I am sure he will duking it out for a solid top 5 or top 10 finish. He also struggled in practice at Vegas, but he did good in the race. In fact, he was leading late in the event before fading after his car went away in the final laps. I have heard it a lot this week that Kyle Busch is terrible at Kansas and that may have been true at one point. However he currently have back-to-back top 5 finishes at this track. Kyle typically doesn't run well here, but the past few races he have been top 10 strong. I think we will see that again on Saturday and will have a shot to sneak into the top 5 before the checkers.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
Other Options: Brad Keselowski (8th), Denny Hamlin (9th), Kurt Busch (10th) Dale Jr (11th)
B:
1. Martin Truex Jr - It hard to ignore that Martin Truex Jr have another strong car this weekend! He will start from the pole and should challenge for the win on Saturday night. He dominated the most recent night race at Texas and looked strong in both practices on Saturday. Not only does he have a great car, but he was awesome here last spring and should have won. But a late pit stop cost him the win. I really like Truex this week and I really do want to trust him! However, he have only had two top 10 finishes this season. I know, I have said this every single week about him. And I am sure most of you are sick of me saying it. But I am going to keep drilling that point home, until something changes. Even though I think he has great potential for Saturday's race!
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
2. Carl Edwards - Edwards will roll off from the 12 starting position, but I think he will be much better than that. I was little surprised he didn't qualify better than he did. He was pretty pleased with his car in racetrim in practice. In final practice, he completed about 20-lap run at start of the session and was among one of the fastest cars. Then after that he switched over to q-trim and in a interview he sounded pretty confident in his car. In the first session on Friday, he was just as good in my opinion. His lap times were solid fast throughout the session. Edwards have never won at his hometown racetrack, but he is arguably the best driver to never win at Kansas. He is a top 5 driver headed into the race in my opinion!
My Overall Ranking: 5th
3. Ryan Newman - Newman quietly had a solid day on Friday without many people really noticing it. He was not blazing fast or post any super impressive laps, but he consistently post good lap times in both sessions. Now he won't have the potential to finish inside the top 10, but he is almost a lock to finish somewhere around 12th or so. Newman isn't someone who will win you your fantasy league, but he is a excellent fantasy choice that you can count on. Newman typically finishes inside the teens on a weekly basis. I don't think Kansas will be any difference.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
4. Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Stenhouse was pretty good all day on Friday and qualified solidly in the 9th position for Saturday's race. I cannot really say how good the No.17 car, because I didn't pay a lot of attention to him. However I did track some of lap times from time to time and they looked Top 15 good compared to others cars in his range. I feel really good about Stenhouse for a couple of reasons actually. Firstly he have shown plenty of speed all season long and have looked his best on the intermediate racetracks. He also finished 12th last fall here and it seems that RFR have found something this year. I think Stenhouse can be that fantasy sleeper in certain leagues that separate your lineup from rest of the pack.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
5. Austin Dillon - Austin Dillon qualified 17th, but don't be fooled for a second. He have a fast car and I fully expect him to be contending for a top 10 finish. He posted some really strong lap times in both practice sessions on Friday. After he qualified, he tweeted he had a fast car and was looking forward to tomorrow night. I love when a driver says something like that on twitter. He's not only confident, but he wants to let everyone else know that he have an awesome car. He was very good back at Vegas and finished 5th. He was top 5 last season at Kansas before he blew a tire, so it not too shocking to see Dillon having a good weekend so far. Be watching the driver of the No.3 car on Saturday night!
My Overall Ranking: 14th
Other Options - Kyle Larson (16th), Paul Menard (18th) and Jamie Mac (20th)
C:
1. Ryan Blaney - Blaney will roll off from inside the top 10 and will have a legit shot to finish least inside the top 15. I thought headed into this week that Blaney had a real opportunity to get a strong finish. Mostly because I thought this would be a great place for him to run strongly at. This season it seems that Blaney have struggled to finish well on tracks that requires tire management. Kansas doesn't have much fall-off compared to place like Cali, Richmond, Atlanta and Texas. Blaney looked good in racetrim, he posted better lap times than it looked on the big board.
My Overall Ranking: 17th
2. Chase Elliott - Elliott kinda looked lost in racetrim honestly, I thought overall he have struggled. After qualifying, he said he was happier in qualifying than he was in racetrim. Which lines up with the data I gathered in the practices I tracked. While I don't think he will be a top 10 contender in Saturday's race, I do believe he will be better than he was in practice. That is so typical of Chase though. He always seems to only get better in the race, so I expect him to do that this week as well. I think Chase will have potential to finish inside the top 15. But I would have my money more on the top 20.
My Overall Ranking: 19th
3. Brian Scott - Scott wasn't anything special, but he can be a deep sleeper if you really feeling like going off-sequence. I wouldn't recommend it, but I do think he will finish better than most of thinking. He finished 25th and 19th in the two practice sessions on Friday, which his better than he have ran in recent weeks. Scott finished 12th here last season in a RCR-allied car, of course the #44 car is nowhere near the equipment that he was in last season. However I do think he will have a great chance to steal top 25 on Saturday night, if he plays his cards right.
My Overall Ranking: 25th
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
We are at Kansas Speedway this weekend for Saturday night's race. I have never liked night races because of the practice schedule setup. Typically all of the practices are ran same as qualifying (day before race - minus The 600 of course). I personally think it puts us fantasy players in a difficult situation when figuring out who will be fast for the race. With the ever changing track conditions. Just because you are good in practice, doesn't mean you will fare well in the race. The roles can reverse, where you suck in practice but be good in the race. Point being, it not ideal to practice in daytime temps and race under the lights! With that said, I'll take recent track history more into account than I usually do.
Kansas is a 1.5 mile intermediate racetrack. This track is most similar to Las Vegas with it limited fall-off on the tire. We won't see the major drop-off in lap times like we saw at Texas (the last 1.5 miler). I also think, we will see a lot of pit strategies being played from the very first caution of the night. 2 tire, 4 tires or heck even no tires. A place like Kansas will allow teams to play with the pit strategies, because the fall-off isn't all too noticeable. Meaning a driver on 4 fresh tires isn't going to have a huge advantage over a driver with 2 tires. Least not like we saw at some of the other track this year.
Alright let's dig into today's fantasy update!
***My ranks are based on practice results, qualifying results, track history, season's consistency and personal opinions
A:
1. Jimmie Johnson - Johnson will roll off from the 15th starting position. There was real scare with him in final practice. He made his mock qualifying run, but there came some smoke from hood of his car. Turns out his engine was running backwards. Similar thing happened with Kasey Kahne few months back at Phoenix. Unlike Kahne, Hendrick MotorSports was prepared for this and was able to shut the car off without damaging his engine. Later in that final practice session, he went back out and posted some more fast laps. Johnson was really fast in both sessions overall. In the first session of the day on Friday, he was really strong throughout his first run. In final practice, he focused more on qualifying trim than anything. The 48 is pretty much a top 5 lock in my opinion. I don't think that issue with the ECU will be much of issue for the race. He is fast and I view him as one of the heavy favorites! Johnson have 13 Top 10 finishes over his past 14 Kansas races. For those that like a driver with a strong track history. He is also the defending race winner, so there that too.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Joey Logano - Logano have been a stud at Kansas since joining Penske! He have managed 5 straight Top 5 finishes and have won 2 of the last 3 races. Even though both of them have came in the fall. He finished 5th last season in this event. Logano didn't focus on qualifying trim until very late in final practice. Logano is better than his practice results indicates. In final practice, he was consistently among the fast cars. On his long run in practice I tracked, he was still running in the 30.00s. Some of his comp was dipping down into the 30.20s. Like I said, he was very consistent overall. I like him a lot for Saturday's night. What put him over the top over other drivers was the Vegas's race. I keep thinking back to that race and how strong he was in that event. Honestly only teammate Brad Keselowski was better than him on the longer runs. So it wasn't too surprising to see him display solid long run speed in practice. Logano will off from the 14th starting position, but I don't think that will have too much of a effect on him. I think he will be able to drive through the field and contend for a top 5 finish before the checkers waves.
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth will roll off from the 2nd starting positon and was one of the best cars in both practice sessions. He was consistently among the quickest cars on the track throughtout back sessions on Friday. This doesn't surprise me one bit honestly. He been fast everywhere we have gone this season and Kansas isn't any different. He led 154 laps in last October's event before getting dumped by Joey Logano in the closing laps. And that not the first time, Kenseth have won success here. He is currently on a 11-race Top 15 streak at Kansas, including 8 Top 10 finishes in that span. Kenseth have two wins since the repave was done and will look to add to it on Saturday night. He should have top 5 potential, but is his bad luck finally gone? We will find out I guess.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
4. Kevin Harvick - Harvick headed into the weekend as one of the heavy favorites, but there major doubt that he remains a heavy favorite after an unimpressive qualifying effort on Friday night. Harvick will start very deep in the field ,outside of the top 25. Harvick should be able to make it through the field and into the top 10. But I don't think he get much further than that though. In practice, I thought he was good in racetrim. Just good though. Not great. I thought he fell off too much compared to the fasters cars. He was off a couple tenths to the front runners on the longer runs I tracked. Thinking back on it, I guess we should have seen this coming. He wasn't overly impressive at Vegas in March. He was good, but only top 10 and finished 5th. We could be in for another performance like that. Just me guessing, but I don't get the feeling that Harvick will be able to race into the lead without some pit strategy. Of course, we practiced during the day, so we could see completely different outcomes. Either way I am excited to see how the 4 car does.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
5. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch seemed off in my opinion in practice, but they got him dialed in for qualifying though. I like Kyle this week, but I am not sure if he have the speed to go out there and dominate. Even though I am sure he will duking it out for a solid top 5 or top 10 finish. He also struggled in practice at Vegas, but he did good in the race. In fact, he was leading late in the event before fading after his car went away in the final laps. I have heard it a lot this week that Kyle Busch is terrible at Kansas and that may have been true at one point. However he currently have back-to-back top 5 finishes at this track. Kyle typically doesn't run well here, but the past few races he have been top 10 strong. I think we will see that again on Saturday and will have a shot to sneak into the top 5 before the checkers.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
Other Options: Brad Keselowski (8th), Denny Hamlin (9th), Kurt Busch (10th) Dale Jr (11th)
B:
1. Martin Truex Jr - It hard to ignore that Martin Truex Jr have another strong car this weekend! He will start from the pole and should challenge for the win on Saturday night. He dominated the most recent night race at Texas and looked strong in both practices on Saturday. Not only does he have a great car, but he was awesome here last spring and should have won. But a late pit stop cost him the win. I really like Truex this week and I really do want to trust him! However, he have only had two top 10 finishes this season. I know, I have said this every single week about him. And I am sure most of you are sick of me saying it. But I am going to keep drilling that point home, until something changes. Even though I think he has great potential for Saturday's race!
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
2. Carl Edwards - Edwards will roll off from the 12 starting position, but I think he will be much better than that. I was little surprised he didn't qualify better than he did. He was pretty pleased with his car in racetrim in practice. In final practice, he completed about 20-lap run at start of the session and was among one of the fastest cars. Then after that he switched over to q-trim and in a interview he sounded pretty confident in his car. In the first session on Friday, he was just as good in my opinion. His lap times were solid fast throughout the session. Edwards have never won at his hometown racetrack, but he is arguably the best driver to never win at Kansas. He is a top 5 driver headed into the race in my opinion!
My Overall Ranking: 5th
3. Ryan Newman - Newman quietly had a solid day on Friday without many people really noticing it. He was not blazing fast or post any super impressive laps, but he consistently post good lap times in both sessions. Now he won't have the potential to finish inside the top 10, but he is almost a lock to finish somewhere around 12th or so. Newman isn't someone who will win you your fantasy league, but he is a excellent fantasy choice that you can count on. Newman typically finishes inside the teens on a weekly basis. I don't think Kansas will be any difference.
My Overall Ranking: 12th
4. Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Stenhouse was pretty good all day on Friday and qualified solidly in the 9th position for Saturday's race. I cannot really say how good the No.17 car, because I didn't pay a lot of attention to him. However I did track some of lap times from time to time and they looked Top 15 good compared to others cars in his range. I feel really good about Stenhouse for a couple of reasons actually. Firstly he have shown plenty of speed all season long and have looked his best on the intermediate racetracks. He also finished 12th last fall here and it seems that RFR have found something this year. I think Stenhouse can be that fantasy sleeper in certain leagues that separate your lineup from rest of the pack.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
5. Austin Dillon - Austin Dillon qualified 17th, but don't be fooled for a second. He have a fast car and I fully expect him to be contending for a top 10 finish. He posted some really strong lap times in both practice sessions on Friday. After he qualified, he tweeted he had a fast car and was looking forward to tomorrow night. I love when a driver says something like that on twitter. He's not only confident, but he wants to let everyone else know that he have an awesome car. He was very good back at Vegas and finished 5th. He was top 5 last season at Kansas before he blew a tire, so it not too shocking to see Dillon having a good weekend so far. Be watching the driver of the No.3 car on Saturday night!
My Overall Ranking: 14th
Other Options - Kyle Larson (16th), Paul Menard (18th) and Jamie Mac (20th)
C:
1. Ryan Blaney - Blaney will roll off from inside the top 10 and will have a legit shot to finish least inside the top 15. I thought headed into this week that Blaney had a real opportunity to get a strong finish. Mostly because I thought this would be a great place for him to run strongly at. This season it seems that Blaney have struggled to finish well on tracks that requires tire management. Kansas doesn't have much fall-off compared to place like Cali, Richmond, Atlanta and Texas. Blaney looked good in racetrim, he posted better lap times than it looked on the big board.
My Overall Ranking: 17th
2. Chase Elliott - Elliott kinda looked lost in racetrim honestly, I thought overall he have struggled. After qualifying, he said he was happier in qualifying than he was in racetrim. Which lines up with the data I gathered in the practices I tracked. While I don't think he will be a top 10 contender in Saturday's race, I do believe he will be better than he was in practice. That is so typical of Chase though. He always seems to only get better in the race, so I expect him to do that this week as well. I think Chase will have potential to finish inside the top 15. But I would have my money more on the top 20.
My Overall Ranking: 19th
3. Brian Scott - Scott wasn't anything special, but he can be a deep sleeper if you really feeling like going off-sequence. I wouldn't recommend it, but I do think he will finish better than most of thinking. He finished 25th and 19th in the two practice sessions on Friday, which his better than he have ran in recent weeks. Scott finished 12th here last season in a RCR-allied car, of course the #44 car is nowhere near the equipment that he was in last season. However I do think he will have a great chance to steal top 25 on Saturday night, if he plays his cards right.
My Overall Ranking: 25th
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
