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Preview -
1-JMac: JMac had a rough night at Kansas and never was able to fully recover after a devastating start to the event. He finished 26th for the race and will look to rebound at Dover! He been good in the past at Dover and he will have a chance to get back on track. Last season he posted finishes of 7th and 4th. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 84.7 driver rating. Overall, he have finished 4 of the past 5 races at Dover inside the top 11. The CGR cars seems to really run well here at Dover for some reason over the past 3 or so seasons, so there a lot of hope that JMac can keep that trend going. Honestly the #1 car have not had the speed like they had the past two seasons, so I am kinda thinking his liking outcome will be somewhere in the low to middle teens.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski was caught up in that mess at Dover with teammate Logano and Hamlin, but luckily he was able to sneak back into the top 10 after spinning from that wreck. Keselowski is having a pretty solid season so far for Penske, but like Logano he doesn't seems to have the speed to go up there and challenge for a top 5 though. He should be top 10 good at Dover this Sunday though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.0 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 99.7 driver rating. Keselowski is much better here than most actually realize though. He won at Dover back in September 2012 and knocked off a pair of 2nd place finishes in 2014. Overall, he have compiled 6 Top 12 finishes in his past 8 races. With 4 of those 6 races ending in 5th or better. He finished 16th and 12th last season. He wasn't really much of a contender in either race though. He led 28 laps last spring, but he struggled for the event overall and finished 12th place. In the fall, he finished 16th and arguably had one of his worst races of his career here. Last season at Dover, he spent about 34% of both races inside the top 15 and posted 15.5 average running position. Despite that, I think he can rebound at Dover this season. Am I expecting a top 5 run? Nope. But I am sure he can get a top 10 out of the weekend!
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon could be someone to watch out for this weekend and is someone who I expect to be under the radar because of his Dover's stats. He have not found a impressive amount of success yet in his cup career here. Over the past 4 races at this track, he have compiled 25.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 70.8 driver rating. His best career race was back in September 2014, when he finished 20th. He finished 23rd in his most recent (and most relevant race). Performance wise it was slightly worse than September 2014's race, but overall they were dead even pretty much. There isn't a lot to talk about with Dillon, he isn't a great driver at Dover so far in his career. He haven't had much success, but he is coming off finishes of 5th and 6th in his past two Sprint Cup races and could use that momentum to have his best Dover's race. Will it happen? I don't know, but he is definitely someone to have on your fantasy radar just in case.
4-Kevin Harvick: Kevin Harvick is so underrated at Dover it actually pretty funny! You probably hear something like, ''oh he dominated last fall race because he knew he needed to win to advance.'' Yeah that would be a good excuse except, he was really strong last spring too. Oh and dominated fall 2014 race as well. So it not really valid, is it? You bet your ass it isn't. His stats are rock-solid here. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.3 average finish (4th-best in the series) with 6.5 average running position (series-best) and 125.6 driver rating (series-best). He also have led a series-high 693 laps led. Second most? Jimmie Johnson at 295. In Harvick's debut with SHR in 2014, he finished 17th. But I think he had a issue and had to pit after a restart and finished 17th. Even he was leading before pitting. Dover is only a mile-long, so you going to lose a couple laps here. He came back in the fall-time and dominated that event, while leading 223 laps from the pole. However he finished 13th (-1 lap down). Last May, he was strong for that race and was consistently inside the top 5, while leading 95 laps of that race. Over the past 15 races, he have finished 12th or in 10 races. Including finishes of 1st and 2nd.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne was a huge disappointment at Kansas as it was one of his best racetracks on schedule. I was not terribly shocked, even though he ran much better than he practice. That 5 car was completely junk in practice, but it raced better. Which was expected because you cannot be as bad as he was on the speed charts. Anyhow, I feel like Kahne will have a chance to rebound nicely this weekend. Over the past 4 races at Dover, he have compiled 12.3 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 91.6 driver rating. Those numbers are better than I actually expected, but it mainly because of his 4th and 6th place finishes last season here. He was more of a top 15 driver in both races than top 10 though. Since joining HMS, he have finished 3 of his 8 races inside the top 9. Looking deeper into the data pool, he have finished 5 of the past 8 races inside the top 15. The top 15 is more what I am expecting as it seems to be the norm for him this season than top 10 potential.
11-Denny Hamlin: I am sorry but Denny Hamlin is a moron. I mean that move at Kansas was just stupid. I really don't understand what he thought he was going to accomplish with a move like that. Cannot say I am shocked by the results though. But Hamlin isn't point racing, he have a win so he can take extra risks like that. Which is one of the reasons I refuse to trust Hamlin this season, as he is crazy inconsistent with his finishes. And Dover isn't exactly a Denny Hamlin type racetrack either. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.0 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 95.0 driver rating. Okay those are good numbers, but I don't really think he is a legit fantasy pick unless he shows some consistency in his finishes. He have only one top 5 finishes since start of the 2014 season and that was in spring 2014 race (finished 5th). In fact, his finishes haven't really been too impressive over the past few seasons. Over his past 10 races at Dover, he have finished 16th or worse in 7 of 10 races. 8 of 10 races, he have finished outside of the top 10. I guess by point being, Hamlin is way too inconsistent this season and at this track to be considered as potential fantasy pick. Even though JGR is on a roll, I don't think he have enough fantasy value unless he looks top 5 in practice on Saturday!
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Ricky didn't have his best race of the season at Kansas, but he hovered around 12th or 13th most of the night and really didn't move from those two positions. Still he has 7 Top 16 finishes in 11 races in 2016 now. He is quietly having a very solid season and most people haven't really noticed that yet. He probably won't get much love at Dover either because of his track record. But I do like him very much this weekend. Over the past 4 races here at Dover, he have compiled 26.3 average finish with 25.5 average running position and 65.0 driver rating. Man I cannot wait for people to overlook him because they don't look deeper into his stats. Those stats are very misleading. The past two spring races here have deflated his overall average finish. He been much better. In 5 of his career 7 races at Dover, he have finished inside the top 19. Including 3 Top 13 finishes in those 5 races he have finished inside the top 19. Even better? He finished 8th in last October's race. Why is that important? That is really the only relevant race to judge Stenhouse on. As that was around the time, RFR started to head in the right direction. Stenhouse is a top 15 driver headed into the weekend in my personal opinion.
18-Kyle Busch: When you are hot, you are just hot and Kyle Busch cannot be stopped! I don't think he could finish poorly if he tried. He been that good since the Daytona 500. His recent finishes are just off the charts though. Listen to his finishes since his win at Martinsville: 1st, 1st, 38th, 2nd, 2nd and 1st. Another interesting thing about Kyle Busch? His top 5 finishes have came in 2s since the Daytona 500. 3rd at Daytona and Atlanta. 4th at Las Vegas and Phoenix. 1st at Maritnsville and Texas. 2nd at Richmond and Talladega. He just won at Kansas, so if the trend contine then expect another win for Kyle Busch. I think he have a great shot at doing just that! Over the past 4 Dover races, he have compiled 22.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 104.7 driver rating. His average finish is misleading when you look deeper into the stats. If you take out the past two spring races (36th, 42nd - top 5 strong in both races), he would have 5 straight top 10 finishes. Inlcuding an 2nd place finish this past October.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off a very disappointing race at Kansas, he was expected to be a race-winning threat. However he had a tire go down and couldn't get pit road right away. Therefore went 2 lap down. He spent rest of the race playing catchup and finished 11th eventually. He'll have a chance to redeem himself at Dover. He was good here last season with JGR. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.8 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 86.4 driver rating. He haven't score an top 10 finish since September 2012 (5th place). But he was very good here last season. He compiled 17.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 92.5 driver rating. Obviously had a better car than he had finishes last season (15th and 19th) at Dover. He been consistently lately though. 4 of the past 5 races, he have had finishes between 11th-15th. He use to be dominated here at one time. From September 2006 to October 2011 (11 races), he posted 11 straight Top 11 finishes. With 7 of 11 races ending inside the top 5. Edwards have been one of the fastest cars on the track this season without question. That should bode well for the weekend, considering he also has a strong track record here.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is coming off his best performance and finish of the season at Kansas (4th) and will look to follow it up at Dover. Not many think of Matt Kenseth at Dover, but he actually been one of the best drivers here from a career point of view and have impressive numbers lately as well. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 106.8 driver rating. Obviously he have been better than his average finish displays. His 39th place finish because of suspension really brings down his numbers. He was running top 5 before that. Over the past 5 races, he have 4 Top 7 finishes in that 5-race span. He been great here for a long time, too. He have had 10 Top 5 finishes in his past 16 races at Dover. Kenseth have had a lot of bad luck this season, but JGR is red hot right now and eventually the 20 car will find victory lane. If I was a betting man, I would put it on this weekend at Dover. This is a great track for him and I think he will use Kansas's strong run as some momentum!
21-Ryan Blaney: I pretty much nailed my Blaney's prediction in last week's preview and I think he can follow that up with another strong performance at Dover. There are a lot of unknowns about Ryan Blaney because of his lack of experience at the Sprint cup level, which limit us to data to use for him. As he haven't made any Sprint Cup starts at Dover, but I am not real concerned about that. He should be fine and contend for least a top 20, if he shows some speed in practice then a top 15 isn't out of the question. I will have my eyes on Ryan Blaney in Saturday's practice that for sure.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is coming off an poor finish at Kansas (after wreck with Hamlin) and will look to get back on track at Dover. In fact, I would say Dover have been one of his best tracks since entering the Sprint Cup ranks. And rarely get the credit he deserves as one of the best drivers in the series here. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.3 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. He is currently on a 8-race Top 11 streak at Dover, with his best finish coming in 3rd (September 2013 with Penske, September 2010 with JGR). Overall, he have been very good at Dover. Even with JGR, he was still very solid. He just have stepped up his game at Penske at this track. In 14 career races, he have compiled 11 Top 15 finishes in 14 races with 13.3 average finish. Logano have finished 9 of those 14 races inside the top 10. I think the driver of the No.22 will be under the radar once again and be a solid off-sequence pick if you are looking for a opportunity to be different than the other fantasy players in your league.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott much like Blaney have never raced in the Sprint Cup Series at Dover Raceway, but that will obviously change on Sunday afternoon. Chase have been impressive all season long in the No.24 car with 7 Top 10 finishes in 11 races so far. Even last week when he didn't have a top 10 car, he was able to fight his way to an solid 9th place finish. I think Chase will be very solid this week at Dover. Headed into the weekend, I view him as top 20 driver with top 15 upside. It doesn't hurt that he is teammates with a guy like Jimmie Johnson, who knows a thing or several about success at Dover.
27-Paul Menard: Man is Paul Menard having a off-season, I think I have said that often this season. He still only have one top 10 finish this season and that was now over 1 month ago and things last weekend at Kansas didn't make his season any easier. He will know turn his attention to Dover; a track that have up and down for him so far in his career with RCR. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.8 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 79.8 driver rating. Over that 2-season span, he have managed 2 Top 10 finishes (8th - last spring and 10th - June 2014) and 2 finishes of 25th and 16th. In 10 career races at Dover (with RCR), he have posted 2 Top 10 finishes and 8 finishes of 16th or worse. However 5 of his past 10 races at Dover have ended in the 16th-20th place range. If I was a betting man, I would put my money in a high-teen finish.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is having a pretty nice season so far in 2016 and most times we even forget that Kurt Busch is even racing. Because he isn't contending up front like we saw often last season. Regardless, it doesn't take away from how good he been week in and week out. Every single week, the No.41 machine seems to have top 10 speed. He have struggled to get top 10 finishes at Dover lately, but should have top 10 potential though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. This haven't been a good track for him, considering he haven't scored a top 10 finish since October 2011. How did he finish in that race? He won that race. However his finishes since haven't been exactly encouraging. Least not the final finishing position. He finishes mainly been in the high teens. From career point of view, he have struggled. Over the past 21 races here, he have posted 5 Top 10 finishes (all of them ending inside the top 5). He also have posted 14 finishes outside of the top 15 though. So you are basically getting Top 5 or nothing (okay top 20 finish, but that really the same thing when considering what type of finishes you are expecting out of a talent like Kurt).
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson looked awesome at Kansas and I was quite pleased with how fast that No.42 car was all night. Sure he got involved in a wreck late, but that wasn't his fault. I guess what I take away from that race is Larson running up inside the top 5 for a change. He also had a fast car at Talladega (not really saying much) and Bristol. He didn't get any good finishes in those races, but I think him and Chad Johnston are starting to get more on the same page as we enter the summer months. And Dover have been one of his best tracks so far in his young cup career. In 4 career races here, he have compiled 7.3 average finish (series-best), 9.8 average running position (4th-best) and 98.1 driver rating (9th-best). In his Sprint Cup debut, he finished 11th. Since? He have knocked off 3 straight Top 9 finishes. He had one of his better cup races here last spring when he finished 3rd. Can he repeat that? I don't know, but I wouldn't be shocked by a top 10 finish. There some very good tracks for him coming up, so this could be the stepping stone he needs to get his season on track.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson is pretty much a must-have on your fantasy team, unless you are crazy then you still should have him on your fantasy team. He is simply the man here and anyone who says otherwise is lying. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 115.6 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he has compiled 3 Top 5 finishes, including 2 wins. He had an issue last fall and had to go to garage early. Johnson have been dominant in his career at Dover. In 28 career starts, he have posted 10 wins, 15 Top 5 finishes (that over 50%), 20 Top 10 finishes and 25 Top 20 finishes. So he a near lock for a top 10 and probably also a lock for a top 5 as well. Anytime we come to Dover, he is the first guy that should come to your mind. He is easily one of the best fantasy options this week. If you leave him off, I am pretty sure the risk won't outweigh the reward. I view Johnson as the heavy favorite headed into the weekend.
78-Martin Truex Jr: I feel bad for anyone who started Martin Truex Jr last Saturday at Kansas, because he was destroying the field and then the bad luck bug bit him. This dude is cursed or something this season. I have never seen a driver have much bad luck as he have had over the years. If there a way to lose a race, then I am pretty sure he have found it. It always been like that for Martin. Even when he has a car that was miles better than the competition was. He now will look to put Kansas behind him and refocus on Dover. I wouldn't be shocked if they bring back the same car they had at Kansas. Who knows though. He been very good at Dover over the years. He got his first Sprint cup win here. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 98.5 driver rating. Truex dominated this event last spring while leading 131 laps on his way to 6th place finish. I know that sound familiar to a couple races this season. Over the past 10 Dover races, Truex have posted 8 Top 15 finishes. With 6 of those 8 finishes ending 8th or better. Truex and that 78 team will look to finally get that win on Sunday, I think they will have a solid shot at it.
88-Dale Jr: Junior is having a solid season in the No.88 car, minus a few bad finishes he have been very consistent overall. He now will try to keep it going at Dover. He been pretty good here with HMS over the past few seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 10.8 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 89.1 driver rating. He been very consistent since the 2012 season at Dover. In that 8-race span, he have compiled 7 Top 15 finishes. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. He finished 3rd last fall and 17th in last spring's event. Jimmie Johnson is usually the one who get all the media buzz at Dover, but Dale Jr isn't too bad either. Is he worth fantasy consideration in most leagues? Probably not. But he could make a solid option in deeper fantasy formats. Just got to see what he has to offer us in practice and qualifying. I think he is someone worth keeping tabs on as the week and into the weekend progresses.
**All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Preview -
1-JMac: JMac had a rough night at Kansas and never was able to fully recover after a devastating start to the event. He finished 26th for the race and will look to rebound at Dover! He been good in the past at Dover and he will have a chance to get back on track. Last season he posted finishes of 7th and 4th. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 14.8 average running position and 84.7 driver rating. Overall, he have finished 4 of the past 5 races at Dover inside the top 11. The CGR cars seems to really run well here at Dover for some reason over the past 3 or so seasons, so there a lot of hope that JMac can keep that trend going. Honestly the #1 car have not had the speed like they had the past two seasons, so I am kinda thinking his liking outcome will be somewhere in the low to middle teens.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski was caught up in that mess at Dover with teammate Logano and Hamlin, but luckily he was able to sneak back into the top 10 after spinning from that wreck. Keselowski is having a pretty solid season so far for Penske, but like Logano he doesn't seems to have the speed to go up there and challenge for a top 5 though. He should be top 10 good at Dover this Sunday though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.0 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 99.7 driver rating. Keselowski is much better here than most actually realize though. He won at Dover back in September 2012 and knocked off a pair of 2nd place finishes in 2014. Overall, he have compiled 6 Top 12 finishes in his past 8 races. With 4 of those 6 races ending in 5th or better. He finished 16th and 12th last season. He wasn't really much of a contender in either race though. He led 28 laps last spring, but he struggled for the event overall and finished 12th place. In the fall, he finished 16th and arguably had one of his worst races of his career here. Last season at Dover, he spent about 34% of both races inside the top 15 and posted 15.5 average running position. Despite that, I think he can rebound at Dover this season. Am I expecting a top 5 run? Nope. But I am sure he can get a top 10 out of the weekend!
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon could be someone to watch out for this weekend and is someone who I expect to be under the radar because of his Dover's stats. He have not found a impressive amount of success yet in his cup career here. Over the past 4 races at this track, he have compiled 25.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 70.8 driver rating. His best career race was back in September 2014, when he finished 20th. He finished 23rd in his most recent (and most relevant race). Performance wise it was slightly worse than September 2014's race, but overall they were dead even pretty much. There isn't a lot to talk about with Dillon, he isn't a great driver at Dover so far in his career. He haven't had much success, but he is coming off finishes of 5th and 6th in his past two Sprint Cup races and could use that momentum to have his best Dover's race. Will it happen? I don't know, but he is definitely someone to have on your fantasy radar just in case.
4-Kevin Harvick: Kevin Harvick is so underrated at Dover it actually pretty funny! You probably hear something like, ''oh he dominated last fall race because he knew he needed to win to advance.'' Yeah that would be a good excuse except, he was really strong last spring too. Oh and dominated fall 2014 race as well. So it not really valid, is it? You bet your ass it isn't. His stats are rock-solid here. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.3 average finish (4th-best in the series) with 6.5 average running position (series-best) and 125.6 driver rating (series-best). He also have led a series-high 693 laps led. Second most? Jimmie Johnson at 295. In Harvick's debut with SHR in 2014, he finished 17th. But I think he had a issue and had to pit after a restart and finished 17th. Even he was leading before pitting. Dover is only a mile-long, so you going to lose a couple laps here. He came back in the fall-time and dominated that event, while leading 223 laps from the pole. However he finished 13th (-1 lap down). Last May, he was strong for that race and was consistently inside the top 5, while leading 95 laps of that race. Over the past 15 races, he have finished 12th or in 10 races. Including finishes of 1st and 2nd.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kasey Kahne was a huge disappointment at Kansas as it was one of his best racetracks on schedule. I was not terribly shocked, even though he ran much better than he practice. That 5 car was completely junk in practice, but it raced better. Which was expected because you cannot be as bad as he was on the speed charts. Anyhow, I feel like Kahne will have a chance to rebound nicely this weekend. Over the past 4 races at Dover, he have compiled 12.3 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 91.6 driver rating. Those numbers are better than I actually expected, but it mainly because of his 4th and 6th place finishes last season here. He was more of a top 15 driver in both races than top 10 though. Since joining HMS, he have finished 3 of his 8 races inside the top 9. Looking deeper into the data pool, he have finished 5 of the past 8 races inside the top 15. The top 15 is more what I am expecting as it seems to be the norm for him this season than top 10 potential.
11-Denny Hamlin: I am sorry but Denny Hamlin is a moron. I mean that move at Kansas was just stupid. I really don't understand what he thought he was going to accomplish with a move like that. Cannot say I am shocked by the results though. But Hamlin isn't point racing, he have a win so he can take extra risks like that. Which is one of the reasons I refuse to trust Hamlin this season, as he is crazy inconsistent with his finishes. And Dover isn't exactly a Denny Hamlin type racetrack either. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.0 average finish with 10.3 average running position and 95.0 driver rating. Okay those are good numbers, but I don't really think he is a legit fantasy pick unless he shows some consistency in his finishes. He have only one top 5 finishes since start of the 2014 season and that was in spring 2014 race (finished 5th). In fact, his finishes haven't really been too impressive over the past few seasons. Over his past 10 races at Dover, he have finished 16th or worse in 7 of 10 races. 8 of 10 races, he have finished outside of the top 10. I guess by point being, Hamlin is way too inconsistent this season and at this track to be considered as potential fantasy pick. Even though JGR is on a roll, I don't think he have enough fantasy value unless he looks top 5 in practice on Saturday!
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Ricky didn't have his best race of the season at Kansas, but he hovered around 12th or 13th most of the night and really didn't move from those two positions. Still he has 7 Top 16 finishes in 11 races in 2016 now. He is quietly having a very solid season and most people haven't really noticed that yet. He probably won't get much love at Dover either because of his track record. But I do like him very much this weekend. Over the past 4 races here at Dover, he have compiled 26.3 average finish with 25.5 average running position and 65.0 driver rating. Man I cannot wait for people to overlook him because they don't look deeper into his stats. Those stats are very misleading. The past two spring races here have deflated his overall average finish. He been much better. In 5 of his career 7 races at Dover, he have finished inside the top 19. Including 3 Top 13 finishes in those 5 races he have finished inside the top 19. Even better? He finished 8th in last October's race. Why is that important? That is really the only relevant race to judge Stenhouse on. As that was around the time, RFR started to head in the right direction. Stenhouse is a top 15 driver headed into the weekend in my personal opinion.
18-Kyle Busch: When you are hot, you are just hot and Kyle Busch cannot be stopped! I don't think he could finish poorly if he tried. He been that good since the Daytona 500. His recent finishes are just off the charts though. Listen to his finishes since his win at Martinsville: 1st, 1st, 38th, 2nd, 2nd and 1st. Another interesting thing about Kyle Busch? His top 5 finishes have came in 2s since the Daytona 500. 3rd at Daytona and Atlanta. 4th at Las Vegas and Phoenix. 1st at Maritnsville and Texas. 2nd at Richmond and Talladega. He just won at Kansas, so if the trend contine then expect another win for Kyle Busch. I think he have a great shot at doing just that! Over the past 4 Dover races, he have compiled 22.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 104.7 driver rating. His average finish is misleading when you look deeper into the stats. If you take out the past two spring races (36th, 42nd - top 5 strong in both races), he would have 5 straight top 10 finishes. Inlcuding an 2nd place finish this past October.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off a very disappointing race at Kansas, he was expected to be a race-winning threat. However he had a tire go down and couldn't get pit road right away. Therefore went 2 lap down. He spent rest of the race playing catchup and finished 11th eventually. He'll have a chance to redeem himself at Dover. He was good here last season with JGR. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.8 average finish with 14.3 average running position and 86.4 driver rating. He haven't score an top 10 finish since September 2012 (5th place). But he was very good here last season. He compiled 17.0 average finish with 12.0 average running position and 92.5 driver rating. Obviously had a better car than he had finishes last season (15th and 19th) at Dover. He been consistently lately though. 4 of the past 5 races, he have had finishes between 11th-15th. He use to be dominated here at one time. From September 2006 to October 2011 (11 races), he posted 11 straight Top 11 finishes. With 7 of 11 races ending inside the top 5. Edwards have been one of the fastest cars on the track this season without question. That should bode well for the weekend, considering he also has a strong track record here.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is coming off his best performance and finish of the season at Kansas (4th) and will look to follow it up at Dover. Not many think of Matt Kenseth at Dover, but he actually been one of the best drivers here from a career point of view and have impressive numbers lately as well. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.5 average finish with 6.8 average running position and 106.8 driver rating. Obviously he have been better than his average finish displays. His 39th place finish because of suspension really brings down his numbers. He was running top 5 before that. Over the past 5 races, he have 4 Top 7 finishes in that 5-race span. He been great here for a long time, too. He have had 10 Top 5 finishes in his past 16 races at Dover. Kenseth have had a lot of bad luck this season, but JGR is red hot right now and eventually the 20 car will find victory lane. If I was a betting man, I would put it on this weekend at Dover. This is a great track for him and I think he will use Kansas's strong run as some momentum!
21-Ryan Blaney: I pretty much nailed my Blaney's prediction in last week's preview and I think he can follow that up with another strong performance at Dover. There are a lot of unknowns about Ryan Blaney because of his lack of experience at the Sprint cup level, which limit us to data to use for him. As he haven't made any Sprint Cup starts at Dover, but I am not real concerned about that. He should be fine and contend for least a top 20, if he shows some speed in practice then a top 15 isn't out of the question. I will have my eyes on Ryan Blaney in Saturday's practice that for sure.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is coming off an poor finish at Kansas (after wreck with Hamlin) and will look to get back on track at Dover. In fact, I would say Dover have been one of his best tracks since entering the Sprint Cup ranks. And rarely get the credit he deserves as one of the best drivers in the series here. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.3 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 100.0 driver rating. He is currently on a 8-race Top 11 streak at Dover, with his best finish coming in 3rd (September 2013 with Penske, September 2010 with JGR). Overall, he have been very good at Dover. Even with JGR, he was still very solid. He just have stepped up his game at Penske at this track. In 14 career races, he have compiled 11 Top 15 finishes in 14 races with 13.3 average finish. Logano have finished 9 of those 14 races inside the top 10. I think the driver of the No.22 will be under the radar once again and be a solid off-sequence pick if you are looking for a opportunity to be different than the other fantasy players in your league.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott much like Blaney have never raced in the Sprint Cup Series at Dover Raceway, but that will obviously change on Sunday afternoon. Chase have been impressive all season long in the No.24 car with 7 Top 10 finishes in 11 races so far. Even last week when he didn't have a top 10 car, he was able to fight his way to an solid 9th place finish. I think Chase will be very solid this week at Dover. Headed into the weekend, I view him as top 20 driver with top 15 upside. It doesn't hurt that he is teammates with a guy like Jimmie Johnson, who knows a thing or several about success at Dover.
27-Paul Menard: Man is Paul Menard having a off-season, I think I have said that often this season. He still only have one top 10 finish this season and that was now over 1 month ago and things last weekend at Kansas didn't make his season any easier. He will know turn his attention to Dover; a track that have up and down for him so far in his career with RCR. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.8 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 79.8 driver rating. Over that 2-season span, he have managed 2 Top 10 finishes (8th - last spring and 10th - June 2014) and 2 finishes of 25th and 16th. In 10 career races at Dover (with RCR), he have posted 2 Top 10 finishes and 8 finishes of 16th or worse. However 5 of his past 10 races at Dover have ended in the 16th-20th place range. If I was a betting man, I would put my money in a high-teen finish.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is having a pretty nice season so far in 2016 and most times we even forget that Kurt Busch is even racing. Because he isn't contending up front like we saw often last season. Regardless, it doesn't take away from how good he been week in and week out. Every single week, the No.41 machine seems to have top 10 speed. He have struggled to get top 10 finishes at Dover lately, but should have top 10 potential though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 21.0 average finish with 12.3 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. This haven't been a good track for him, considering he haven't scored a top 10 finish since October 2011. How did he finish in that race? He won that race. However his finishes since haven't been exactly encouraging. Least not the final finishing position. He finishes mainly been in the high teens. From career point of view, he have struggled. Over the past 21 races here, he have posted 5 Top 10 finishes (all of them ending inside the top 5). He also have posted 14 finishes outside of the top 15 though. So you are basically getting Top 5 or nothing (okay top 20 finish, but that really the same thing when considering what type of finishes you are expecting out of a talent like Kurt).
42-Kyle Larson: Kyle Larson looked awesome at Kansas and I was quite pleased with how fast that No.42 car was all night. Sure he got involved in a wreck late, but that wasn't his fault. I guess what I take away from that race is Larson running up inside the top 5 for a change. He also had a fast car at Talladega (not really saying much) and Bristol. He didn't get any good finishes in those races, but I think him and Chad Johnston are starting to get more on the same page as we enter the summer months. And Dover have been one of his best tracks so far in his young cup career. In 4 career races here, he have compiled 7.3 average finish (series-best), 9.8 average running position (4th-best) and 98.1 driver rating (9th-best). In his Sprint Cup debut, he finished 11th. Since? He have knocked off 3 straight Top 9 finishes. He had one of his better cup races here last spring when he finished 3rd. Can he repeat that? I don't know, but I wouldn't be shocked by a top 10 finish. There some very good tracks for him coming up, so this could be the stepping stone he needs to get his season on track.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson is pretty much a must-have on your fantasy team, unless you are crazy then you still should have him on your fantasy team. He is simply the man here and anyone who says otherwise is lying. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 115.6 driver rating. In that 4-race span, he has compiled 3 Top 5 finishes, including 2 wins. He had an issue last fall and had to go to garage early. Johnson have been dominant in his career at Dover. In 28 career starts, he have posted 10 wins, 15 Top 5 finishes (that over 50%), 20 Top 10 finishes and 25 Top 20 finishes. So he a near lock for a top 10 and probably also a lock for a top 5 as well. Anytime we come to Dover, he is the first guy that should come to your mind. He is easily one of the best fantasy options this week. If you leave him off, I am pretty sure the risk won't outweigh the reward. I view Johnson as the heavy favorite headed into the weekend.
78-Martin Truex Jr: I feel bad for anyone who started Martin Truex Jr last Saturday at Kansas, because he was destroying the field and then the bad luck bug bit him. This dude is cursed or something this season. I have never seen a driver have much bad luck as he have had over the years. If there a way to lose a race, then I am pretty sure he have found it. It always been like that for Martin. Even when he has a car that was miles better than the competition was. He now will look to put Kansas behind him and refocus on Dover. I wouldn't be shocked if they bring back the same car they had at Kansas. Who knows though. He been very good at Dover over the years. He got his first Sprint cup win here. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 7.5 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 98.5 driver rating. Truex dominated this event last spring while leading 131 laps on his way to 6th place finish. I know that sound familiar to a couple races this season. Over the past 10 Dover races, Truex have posted 8 Top 15 finishes. With 6 of those 8 finishes ending 8th or better. Truex and that 78 team will look to finally get that win on Sunday, I think they will have a solid shot at it.
88-Dale Jr: Junior is having a solid season in the No.88 car, minus a few bad finishes he have been very consistent overall. He now will try to keep it going at Dover. He been pretty good here with HMS over the past few seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 10.8 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 89.1 driver rating. He been very consistent since the 2012 season at Dover. In that 8-race span, he have compiled 7 Top 15 finishes. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. He finished 3rd last fall and 17th in last spring's event. Jimmie Johnson is usually the one who get all the media buzz at Dover, but Dale Jr isn't too bad either. Is he worth fantasy consideration in most leagues? Probably not. But he could make a solid option in deeper fantasy formats. Just got to see what he has to offer us in practice and qualifying. I think he is someone worth keeping tabs on as the week and into the weekend progresses.
**All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
