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Austin Dillon has developed into one of the most-well rounded drivers in the series! He's good just about everywhere. It has taken him longer to develop than most young drivers, but he is making obvious gain. Dillon hasn't truly contended much for the race win in his career (outside of Pocono or Michigan races), but we are seeing progress being made though. Dillon's value is his consistency at just about every type of track. Not only that, but he shown a lot of speed in 2016 with that consistency. Folks, that is a lethal combination to have! Another thing I like about Austin? He's smooth with his equipment and never tear his stuff up. He's a good bet to finish out a race and usually good for a top 15 or at worst top 20.
Honestly, he is still stuck in that low to middle teen range as a driver. He is still trying to develop towards an top 10 driver. However, he isn't there quite yet I think, he needs to take that next step before coming an race-winner contenders. He will have his days, but I think he has some progress to make though.
Intermediate tracks will be an a primary strength for Austin Dillon in 2017! RCR has been very good on these type of tracks over he years and it been a strength for Dillon in his career, as well. His best intermediate tracks? Michigan, Kansas and Texas. You could also make a strong case for Charlotte inside his top 3 tracks. However, it hasn't had that standout performance there. Just consistency, which you could say it is his most consistent track though. But the places above, he shown an higher ceiling though. I consider Michigan as his best track! Not only his best intermediate track, but he has said on number of occasions that Michigan is his favorite track. In fact, on MRN radio last June they had a segment where, Austin talked about how he loves big and fast racetracks. Michigan definitely qualifies for that.
Michigan is a very good track, even though if the numbers don't quite tell the whole story overall. He has some bad races at Michigan that really hurt him honestly. He finished 30th and 22nd in 2014 and 20th in June 2015 at Michigan. So that's an average finish of 24.0 average finish. Not good, but here's so stats are back up that he performed well in those races. In those 3 races, he compiled and 14.0 average running position and ran 65%(!) of the laps inside the top 15. That's insanely good, since that was his first few starts at Michigan with the #3 team. With that said, he finished 11th and 14th in the two races before making his debut with #3 in June 2014. Over his past three races at Michigan? 16th, 4th and 8th. Performance-wise, he had one of his worst performance of his career at Michigan back in August 2016. I think #3 just missed the setup. Just looked off that entire weekend for some reason. Statistically it wasn't his worst race overall, but the standards and expectations makes that performance much worse than any other race. Because of his the experience and what we seen from him in recent Michigan races. Just wasn't what anyone expected. However, I have high hopes for Dillon at Michigan in 2017. I think this is the place, he has one of his best shots to go to victory!
Kansas and Texas are the other two intermediate tracks that stand out to me as real strength for Austin. I think there are a lot of decent tracks for him among the intermediate tracks, but he has standout runs at Kansas and Texas. I like that, plus good track records as well. I would say that Kansas is his better track of two, to be honest. Kansas has been a very good track for him overall. Over the past 5 races at Kansas, he has finished 6th or 8th in 3 races. So 60% of the time, he has finished inside the top 10. While, 4 of the past 6 races has ended inside the top 19 at Kansas! Texas is another good intermediate track for him. He has finished 6 of 8 races inside the top 22 overall. That doesn't do it for him though, he ran extremely well at both races at Texas last season. That why I listed it as a favorite track. In 2016, he's posted 11.0 average running position with 77% of the laps inside the top 15. He got wrecked twice at Texas last year, but it wasn't for his lack of trying performance wise though.
Larger flats tracks and plate tracks are the next two strongest areas for Austin likely. He loves the big tracks, so logically he likes the plate tracks and larger flats. No surprise he has excelled at them honestly. I think you should expect more of the same in 2017 as well. I think the plate tracks are a bigger strength overall though. Especially at Daytona, for whatever reason he's just good there!
Daytona is his best track on the schedule. There's something about the #3 car at Daytona that brings out the best in Austin. Over the past 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 8.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 82.6 driver rating. Over that 6-race span, he has finished 14th or better in every single race. That's just impressive overall for a 6-race stench. Also, he has posted 5 top 10 finishes in that 6-race span as well. Dillon is just money at Daytona, the place just agrees with him for whatever reason. I love using him at Daytona, he has established himself as a top driver there. He is also very good at Talladega but not quite on Daytona's level though. Over the past 6 races here, he has compiled 14.8 average finish with 20.7 average running position and 73.9 driver rating. His numbers are still impressive though. In 5 of the past 6 races at Talladega, he has finished 15th or better. Including finishes of 9th, 3rd and 14th over his past three races at Talladega. Simply put: Dillon is usually at his best on the plate tracks!
Larger flats tracks will also be another track for him as well. He has been successful at Pocono, since his very first start back in 2014! Has he been stellar at Pocono? Nope! But overall, his record is solid though. In 6 career starts at the track, he has posted 5 Top 20 finishes. Overall, he has posted 4 Top 15 finishes in those 5 races. Also, he has posted 2 Top 13 finishes over his past three races at Pocono. He had a top 5 race back in August 2016 as well. He was very strong in that race, he had a epic battle with Kyle Larson before bad weather came. The pit cycle really killed him at the end. He's easily had his best race at Pocono in his most recent race. At Indy? He has been even better than at Pocono, but he has less data so not sure if you can make that claim though. He has made 3 starts with the #3 team at Indy and he has posted 2 Top 10 finishes. Yes, he has finished 2 of 3 races inside the top 10. With finishes of 9th and 10th over the past three seasons. Not much else to say honestly. He's good on the larger flat tracks!
How about the short tracks and shorter flat tracks? He should have his moments on them for sure, but I view them as more of a weakness then the tracks listed above. I think he will have potential in the low to middle teens at the shorter flats with upside to finish inside the top 10. I personally think, he is still trying to find himself on the shorter flats. Most weekends, he will perform in that 12nd-17th place range. Same can be said about the short tracks as well.
New Hampshire is his best shorter flat track overall. He has finished 22nd or better in every single race at New Hampshire since his debut in July 2014. Overall, he has finished 16th or better in 5 of 6 races. His numbers were better in his first three races though. He had finishes of 14th, 11th and 8th in his first three starts at New Hampshire. Last three races at New Hampshire? 22nd, 13th and 16th. Still not bad, but his numbers are slightly down though. Phoenix is in the middle of the three tracks among the shorter flats. Phoenix has been okay for him overall, I would say. Not really good at Phoenix, but not really terrible either. Over the past 4 races, he has finished 20th or better in 3 of 4 races. With that said, he has 3 finishes of 24th or worse in the other races. A noticeable pattern at Phoenix? He has finished better in the Spring (March) races than the Fall (November) races. 24th (Spring 2014), 15th (Spring 2015) and 9th (Spring 2016) in the Spring races. While finishing 20th, 28th and 39th in the past three fall races. Also in the Spring, he has finished better in each race. 24th in 2014 and 9th in 2016. Expect good things in the Spring from Austin, if the trends holds.
Richmond is Austin's worst track overall among the flats, I would say. It has been a obvious weak spot for him as a Cup driver so far. As in 6 career starts at Richmond, he has finished 20th or worse five times. Yes, 5 of 6 races! That's not very good at all. He did finish in 13th in his last race there, but that's remains his only top 15 finish there. When looking at the numbers, he probably had his best two races at Richmond in 2016. Both races were easiest his top 2 races at Richmond as a Cup driver. Maybe he is making a turn around there? Anything possible.
The short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville) are a lot like the shorter flats for Austin overall. Teen-potential mainly but will have upside from time to time. Both very good tracks for him honestly. I would say that Bristol is the better track him, as he has found more success there so far. In 6 races at Bristol, he has compiled 4 finishes of 13th or better. Including an 4th-place finish in his most recent race there. Didn't earn it though. Had top 15 car, but that's about it in my opinion. Like I said teen-potential mainly. A lot of results on the short tracks will likely be in the teens. I would say 13th-16th in the overall likelihood at Bristol. Top 12 definitely within reach though.
Martinsville is the another short track that, we will want to look at, too. Martinsville is a tough place to master, but Dillon has done a good job there of finishing out races. Something a lot of young drivers haven't done much. In 6 races at Martinsville, he has finished 18th or better in 5 of 6 races. Including finishes of 17th and 4th last season. Performance-wise, he had his best races at Martinsville last season. Overall, it has been a very good track for him.
Road courses will be a weak link for him, he isn't an driver that will excel on the road courses much. Sonoma been the better track to him, for whatever it is worth. In 3 career races, he has finished 17th-22nd range. Not bad at all, but not great either though. Jut haven't had that standout performance yet. He is a working progress at Sonoma still and wouldn't expect anything to change either. Watkins Glenn been a lot tough on him than Sonoma. Dillon has his best road course finish at Watkins Glenn (2014 race), but also has finishes of 36th and 31st over the past two seasons. He's finished a lap down in both races. I believe he was involved in a wreck in 2016 and had a flat tire in 2015, that he never was able to recover.
In 2017, I expect Dillon to keep making progress as a driver. I am not expecting the world, so I won't be disappointed if the progress is small. For me, I would like Dillon to take the next step and contend in more races in 2017. He showed over the past couple seasons, he is capable of running well. I feel like he will need to stay consistent to be a real fantasy asset to us fantasy players. As he doesn't have enough upside to bring value that way. I think his best places will be the intermediate tracks, plate tracks and large tracks in general. His worst days will come on Richmond and the road courses most likely. I don't think Dillon will go to Victory lane in 2017, but I am expecting to see him up inside the top 5 more often.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Austin Dillon has developed into one of the most-well rounded drivers in the series! He's good just about everywhere. It has taken him longer to develop than most young drivers, but he is making obvious gain. Dillon hasn't truly contended much for the race win in his career (outside of Pocono or Michigan races), but we are seeing progress being made though. Dillon's value is his consistency at just about every type of track. Not only that, but he shown a lot of speed in 2016 with that consistency. Folks, that is a lethal combination to have! Another thing I like about Austin? He's smooth with his equipment and never tear his stuff up. He's a good bet to finish out a race and usually good for a top 15 or at worst top 20.
Honestly, he is still stuck in that low to middle teen range as a driver. He is still trying to develop towards an top 10 driver. However, he isn't there quite yet I think, he needs to take that next step before coming an race-winner contenders. He will have his days, but I think he has some progress to make though.
Intermediate tracks will be an a primary strength for Austin Dillon in 2017! RCR has been very good on these type of tracks over he years and it been a strength for Dillon in his career, as well. His best intermediate tracks? Michigan, Kansas and Texas. You could also make a strong case for Charlotte inside his top 3 tracks. However, it hasn't had that standout performance there. Just consistency, which you could say it is his most consistent track though. But the places above, he shown an higher ceiling though. I consider Michigan as his best track! Not only his best intermediate track, but he has said on number of occasions that Michigan is his favorite track. In fact, on MRN radio last June they had a segment where, Austin talked about how he loves big and fast racetracks. Michigan definitely qualifies for that.
Michigan is a very good track, even though if the numbers don't quite tell the whole story overall. He has some bad races at Michigan that really hurt him honestly. He finished 30th and 22nd in 2014 and 20th in June 2015 at Michigan. So that's an average finish of 24.0 average finish. Not good, but here's so stats are back up that he performed well in those races. In those 3 races, he compiled and 14.0 average running position and ran 65%(!) of the laps inside the top 15. That's insanely good, since that was his first few starts at Michigan with the #3 team. With that said, he finished 11th and 14th in the two races before making his debut with #3 in June 2014. Over his past three races at Michigan? 16th, 4th and 8th. Performance-wise, he had one of his worst performance of his career at Michigan back in August 2016. I think #3 just missed the setup. Just looked off that entire weekend for some reason. Statistically it wasn't his worst race overall, but the standards and expectations makes that performance much worse than any other race. Because of his the experience and what we seen from him in recent Michigan races. Just wasn't what anyone expected. However, I have high hopes for Dillon at Michigan in 2017. I think this is the place, he has one of his best shots to go to victory!
Kansas and Texas are the other two intermediate tracks that stand out to me as real strength for Austin. I think there are a lot of decent tracks for him among the intermediate tracks, but he has standout runs at Kansas and Texas. I like that, plus good track records as well. I would say that Kansas is his better track of two, to be honest. Kansas has been a very good track for him overall. Over the past 5 races at Kansas, he has finished 6th or 8th in 3 races. So 60% of the time, he has finished inside the top 10. While, 4 of the past 6 races has ended inside the top 19 at Kansas! Texas is another good intermediate track for him. He has finished 6 of 8 races inside the top 22 overall. That doesn't do it for him though, he ran extremely well at both races at Texas last season. That why I listed it as a favorite track. In 2016, he's posted 11.0 average running position with 77% of the laps inside the top 15. He got wrecked twice at Texas last year, but it wasn't for his lack of trying performance wise though.
Larger flats tracks and plate tracks are the next two strongest areas for Austin likely. He loves the big tracks, so logically he likes the plate tracks and larger flats. No surprise he has excelled at them honestly. I think you should expect more of the same in 2017 as well. I think the plate tracks are a bigger strength overall though. Especially at Daytona, for whatever reason he's just good there!
Daytona is his best track on the schedule. There's something about the #3 car at Daytona that brings out the best in Austin. Over the past 6 races at Daytona, he has compiled 8.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 82.6 driver rating. Over that 6-race span, he has finished 14th or better in every single race. That's just impressive overall for a 6-race stench. Also, he has posted 5 top 10 finishes in that 6-race span as well. Dillon is just money at Daytona, the place just agrees with him for whatever reason. I love using him at Daytona, he has established himself as a top driver there. He is also very good at Talladega but not quite on Daytona's level though. Over the past 6 races here, he has compiled 14.8 average finish with 20.7 average running position and 73.9 driver rating. His numbers are still impressive though. In 5 of the past 6 races at Talladega, he has finished 15th or better. Including finishes of 9th, 3rd and 14th over his past three races at Talladega. Simply put: Dillon is usually at his best on the plate tracks!
Larger flats tracks will also be another track for him as well. He has been successful at Pocono, since his very first start back in 2014! Has he been stellar at Pocono? Nope! But overall, his record is solid though. In 6 career starts at the track, he has posted 5 Top 20 finishes. Overall, he has posted 4 Top 15 finishes in those 5 races. Also, he has posted 2 Top 13 finishes over his past three races at Pocono. He had a top 5 race back in August 2016 as well. He was very strong in that race, he had a epic battle with Kyle Larson before bad weather came. The pit cycle really killed him at the end. He's easily had his best race at Pocono in his most recent race. At Indy? He has been even better than at Pocono, but he has less data so not sure if you can make that claim though. He has made 3 starts with the #3 team at Indy and he has posted 2 Top 10 finishes. Yes, he has finished 2 of 3 races inside the top 10. With finishes of 9th and 10th over the past three seasons. Not much else to say honestly. He's good on the larger flat tracks!
How about the short tracks and shorter flat tracks? He should have his moments on them for sure, but I view them as more of a weakness then the tracks listed above. I think he will have potential in the low to middle teens at the shorter flats with upside to finish inside the top 10. I personally think, he is still trying to find himself on the shorter flats. Most weekends, he will perform in that 12nd-17th place range. Same can be said about the short tracks as well.
New Hampshire is his best shorter flat track overall. He has finished 22nd or better in every single race at New Hampshire since his debut in July 2014. Overall, he has finished 16th or better in 5 of 6 races. His numbers were better in his first three races though. He had finishes of 14th, 11th and 8th in his first three starts at New Hampshire. Last three races at New Hampshire? 22nd, 13th and 16th. Still not bad, but his numbers are slightly down though. Phoenix is in the middle of the three tracks among the shorter flats. Phoenix has been okay for him overall, I would say. Not really good at Phoenix, but not really terrible either. Over the past 4 races, he has finished 20th or better in 3 of 4 races. With that said, he has 3 finishes of 24th or worse in the other races. A noticeable pattern at Phoenix? He has finished better in the Spring (March) races than the Fall (November) races. 24th (Spring 2014), 15th (Spring 2015) and 9th (Spring 2016) in the Spring races. While finishing 20th, 28th and 39th in the past three fall races. Also in the Spring, he has finished better in each race. 24th in 2014 and 9th in 2016. Expect good things in the Spring from Austin, if the trends holds.
Richmond is Austin's worst track overall among the flats, I would say. It has been a obvious weak spot for him as a Cup driver so far. As in 6 career starts at Richmond, he has finished 20th or worse five times. Yes, 5 of 6 races! That's not very good at all. He did finish in 13th in his last race there, but that's remains his only top 15 finish there. When looking at the numbers, he probably had his best two races at Richmond in 2016. Both races were easiest his top 2 races at Richmond as a Cup driver. Maybe he is making a turn around there? Anything possible.
The short tracks (Bristol and Martinsville) are a lot like the shorter flats for Austin overall. Teen-potential mainly but will have upside from time to time. Both very good tracks for him honestly. I would say that Bristol is the better track him, as he has found more success there so far. In 6 races at Bristol, he has compiled 4 finishes of 13th or better. Including an 4th-place finish in his most recent race there. Didn't earn it though. Had top 15 car, but that's about it in my opinion. Like I said teen-potential mainly. A lot of results on the short tracks will likely be in the teens. I would say 13th-16th in the overall likelihood at Bristol. Top 12 definitely within reach though.
Martinsville is the another short track that, we will want to look at, too. Martinsville is a tough place to master, but Dillon has done a good job there of finishing out races. Something a lot of young drivers haven't done much. In 6 races at Martinsville, he has finished 18th or better in 5 of 6 races. Including finishes of 17th and 4th last season. Performance-wise, he had his best races at Martinsville last season. Overall, it has been a very good track for him.
Road courses will be a weak link for him, he isn't an driver that will excel on the road courses much. Sonoma been the better track to him, for whatever it is worth. In 3 career races, he has finished 17th-22nd range. Not bad at all, but not great either though. Jut haven't had that standout performance yet. He is a working progress at Sonoma still and wouldn't expect anything to change either. Watkins Glenn been a lot tough on him than Sonoma. Dillon has his best road course finish at Watkins Glenn (2014 race), but also has finishes of 36th and 31st over the past two seasons. He's finished a lap down in both races. I believe he was involved in a wreck in 2016 and had a flat tire in 2015, that he never was able to recover.
In 2017, I expect Dillon to keep making progress as a driver. I am not expecting the world, so I won't be disappointed if the progress is small. For me, I would like Dillon to take the next step and contend in more races in 2017. He showed over the past couple seasons, he is capable of running well. I feel like he will need to stay consistent to be a real fantasy asset to us fantasy players. As he doesn't have enough upside to bring value that way. I think his best places will be the intermediate tracks, plate tracks and large tracks in general. His worst days will come on Richmond and the road courses most likely. I don't think Dillon will go to Victory lane in 2017, but I am expecting to see him up inside the top 5 more often.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
