Tuesday, January 31, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Brad Keselowski

Welcome to TimersSports

Brad Keselowski had a pretty good 2016, but I will be honest I always gave him somewhat of a hard time. I don't know why, but I could never pick him in fantasy nascar in 2016. I have no clue why, but he just wasn't an appealing fantasy option to me. Every track, he had good numbers though. In 2017, you can expect good things from him. He will run well at every type of track. The Penske cars are usually good everywhere.

Keselowski will be one of the strongest drivers on the intermediate tracks in 2017. Every year, Keslowski is strong on the intermediate tracks, so no reason to think otherwise about 2017. He does a great job of consistency finishing inside the top 10, on a weekly basis. His best tracks on the intermediate tracks? Kentucky, Chicago and Dalrington. You could put several other tracks up with inside the top 5, but those three stand out to me overall.

Kentucky is his best track overall, I would say. Not only as a intermediate track but I mean in all of Nascar. There's no track that he is better on, than Kentucky. That's my opinion, of course though. In 6 career races at Kentucky, he has only finished worse 7th once. In those 6 races, he has compiled 3 wins already. Also, he has led 62 or more laps in 5 of 6 races. Like that? While, he also compiled 4 races with driver rating of 120 or better. That's ridiculous!

Darlington is another really good track for him and a place that's been really good to him lately. Over the past 2 seasons at Darlington, BK has compiled 5.5 average finish with 4.0 average running position and 127.9 driver rating. Performance-wise, Keselowski been the second-best driver at Darlington, over the past two seasons. He has qualified inside the top 2 in the past 2 races and led over 240 laps. Also, he is tied for a series-high 82 fast laps as well. Chicago is statistically considered Brad's second-best track from a career point of view. He hasn't had a bad race with the #2 team team yet. In 6 races, he has compiled 6 Top 8 finishes. Over those past 6 races at Chicago, he has compiled 4 Top 5 finishes. Including 2 wins, since the 2012 season. He's just amazing at Chicago. BK can be counted on at Chicago!

Shorter flats tracks should be a strong spot for Brad Keselowski in 2017! He's one of the best in the series at places like Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond. I would say that New Hampshire is his best track among the three. He has been awesome at New Hampshire, throughout his career with the #2 team. Over the past 11 races here, he has compiled 11 Top 15 finishes. He has never finished worse than 15th in a race, since 2011 season. More recently, he has finished 4 of 6 races inside the top 7. While, 7 of his past 10 races resulted in 7th or better. Keselowski simply been on it at New Hampshire!

Richmond is his second-best shorter flat racetrack overall. Over his past 11 races at Richmond, he has compiled 8 Top 12 finishes. That's solid in long term. But how has he's done in shorter term? Well over his past 6 races at Richmond, he's compiled 5 finishes of 11th or better. Including 3 finishes of 4th or better. Currently, Keselowski has knocked off three straight of 11th or better as well. Phoenix is his worst shorter flat. With that said, he's really good here. Over his past 10 races here, he has compiled 8 Top 11 finishes. More recently? He has compiled 4 Top 9 over his past 6 races. Not bad at all! Keselowski will be very good on all three shorter flats.

Short tracks will be places where Keselowski runs well, but doesn't always get the finishes. Martinsville is a good example of that. He has ran very well there with Penske, but has a couple poor finishes lately. Over the past 10 races at Martinsville, he has compiled 7 Top 9 finishes. His three non-top 9? 31st or worse. All three poor finishes has came over the past 6 races. Good news though? He also has compiled 3 finishes inside the top 5 over the past 6 races. So 3 finishes inside the top 5 and 3 finishes outside the top 30, in the past 6 races. Complete boom or bust!

Bristol is another good example of running well, doesn't always lead to results for Keselowski. Bristol been his worst track in terms of average finish over the past 2 seasons. He started off with 2 wins in his first 2 starts with the #2 team. Over his past 9 races? He has finished 14th or worse in 6 of 9 races. While, 5 of those races ended in 30th or worse. Over his past 5 races? 3 of 5 races ended in 18th or worse. Not great numbers at Bristol overall in terms of finishes.

Larger Flats will be a okay type of track for him in 2017, just not anything special though. I think Pocono is by far his better larger flat. It has been pretty kind to him and Penske in general in recent years. Keslowski been amazing over his past 7 starts at Pocono! Over his past 7 races, he has compiled 5 Top 6 finishes. Over his past 6 races? 4 finishes of 3rd or better. Including 3 straight Top 3 finishes over just his past three races. That's very solid! Indy been a lot tougher on him though. In 7 career starts at Indy, he has never finished better than 9th (twice) overall. In his past 4 races, three times, he's finished between 12th-21st. His lone non in that range? 10th back in 2015. With all of that said, he has led 15 and 17 laps in past two races. Also, his performance in his past two races been pretty good. In terms of driver ratings, his past two races ranked as 1st and 3rd in his career at Indy. His 2015 race was impressive honestly. Started 31st and finished 10th. While still posting a driver rating of 102. He's failed to do that in any other race at Indy!

I view Keselowski as one of the best plate racers in Nascar, he's always strong on the plates. So there's no reason to think otherwise about 2017! However, I do get the feeling, Keselowski get a lot of poor finishes at plate races because of his driving style. Not to point fingers, but he can be faulted for some of his poor finishes recently. Are they always his fault? Definitely not, some of them are just bad luck. However, he's never been one to be sit back and play it safe. Over his past 8 plate races, he has compiled just 4 Top 20 finishes. However, he has posted 2 wins as well. With all of that said, he has posted 6 Top 7 finishes over his past 11 races at Talladega. Including 3 wins! So while, he's posted some bad finishes. He's also been good at getting quality finishes with Penske, including wins. Daytona is basically the same way with him. 4 top 8 finishes over his past 9 races at Daytona. With two other races ending in the 18th-20th range. And the other three additional races ending in 21st or worse. You take the good with the bad with Keselwski, he has a very high ceiling. A risk, that's easily worth gamble!

Road courses been pretty good to Keselowski overall, I would say! That should be the case in 2017 as well for him. Watkins Glenn is a obvious great track for Brad. He's been good here since joining the #2 team. Over his past 6 races, he has compiled 5 Top 7 finishes. Also in that 6-race span, he's finished inside the top 3 four times. He's never won, but I think that will change very soon. How much longer can he go without winning here? I would guess not too much longer.

Sonoma been tougher on Keselowski overall. He started off very well at Sonoma with the #2 team. With career-high 10th in 2011 and 12th in 2012. Over his past 4 races, he has compiled finishes between 15th-22nd. You can learn about a lot about a driver's performance by looking at their driver ratings. A very handy tool to know how to read. And Brad's career best driver rating was 94.8 back in 2011, when he finished 10th. Over his past 5 races, his driver rating has not been better than 84.5. His past three races his driver rating been 79.7, 70.4 and 58.2. Of course, a lot goes on during the races. So there's various of reasons for a poor driver rating. However, it been a trend for Keselowski at Sonoma. Poor driver rating for 3 races is a trends. And trends are patterns, not bad luck. Slice it how you want, but Keselowski isn't that good at Sonoma. It is the more challenging road course, afterall too.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18