Monday, January 16, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Ryan Newman

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Newman had one of his worst seasons of his career in 2016 and I didn't see it coming at all! Newman had a rough year, but it was still a pretty good when looking at it though. That' saying a lot too. Newman had a down year, but it was a year that most drivers probably would take with open arms honestly. In 2017, like his teammates, I would expect him to be at his best on the intermediate tracks. Also he should have good runs on some of the shorter tracks as well. But the real strength for Newman should be his consistency. If he get back to his old ways, his best fantasy asset will be getting quality finishes in the low to middle teens. That's what I am hoping for honestly.

Intermediate tracks will be his best type of track overall. RCR always seems to be at their best on the intermediate tracks. You could use him just about anywhere honestly and have a good shot at an decent finish. However, I would use him at Darlington, Las Vegas and Chicago first though. Those are the tracks that stand out to me when looking at his success on the intermediate tracks. He is also very good at Dover, Kansas, Kentucky and Michigan. I love him at all of those tracks as well. Dover could be considered as a top 5 track from a career point of view, but his numbers just aren't lately. At least not with tracks that I listed above that is. Kentucky is a great track for him, with 2 top 5 finishes over his past three races. Just much less data to go on, so I will wait on him there. Kansas is a great track for a career point of view and more recently. But he is just better at Las Vegas, but it is a toss-up. Michigan is a consistent track for him. With 22 top 20 finishes in 30 starts, however mainly low to middle teen finishes though. Only 8 Top 10 finishes in 31 starts, he lacks the upside but a solid driver there if you want a good spot to unload.

Darlington is his best track overall probably. His numbers there are just straight up impressive, he is tough to match there. He's just understand how to run well at Darlington, personally I think that is one of the toughest tracks on the schedule to master. Not just anyone can go out and run well consistency. Very few can find success there time and time again throughout their careers. The lady in black is not kind to everyone, but she has taken a liking to Mr. Newman though. In 18 career races, he has compiled 7 Top 5 finishes, 12 Top 10 finishes and 14 Top 20 finishes for an 12.0 average finish. That's ranked as a career-best among the 23 tracks! Over just the past 8 races at Darlington, he has compiled 6 Top 10 finishes. On top of that, he has past 7 Top 13 finishes, with one finish worse than that of 23rd. That finish? 2012. Newman is super consistent at Darlington. You can expect a low-teen to top 10 finish out of him.

Las Vegas and Chicago are the two other tracks that I would like to look at. We only visit them once per year, but he is so good at them though. At Chicago, he has been awesome here throughout his career overall. In the past 6 races, he has compiled 5 Top 15 finishes and 4 of those has ended inside the top 10. Overall, 7 of the past 10 races at Chicago has ended inside the top 10. Very solid! His Las Vegas record is also pretty damn good. Over his past 6 races at Las Vegas, he has compiled 5 Top 13 finishes. If you take out his bad race (38th - March 2013), he has finishes of 4th-13th. What I love more? He has 4 finishes between 3rd-7th in that span. You could consider him at any intermediate track honestly and still get quality runs out of him. With Newman it is about timing, so I would go with the tracks that he has had the most success at.

When asked on twitter in the summer time (in 2016), what his team's strongest type of track was, he said the short tracks were. I was surprise about that when he said that, I really was! I figured he would say the intermediate tracks, but nope it was the short tracks. Most people probably forgotten about that, but I made a mental note of that. Does it mean anything? Not really, but I like giving the drivers a benefit of the doubt. And if he say, his team is good on short tracks then I will believe that. Also, Newman is a pretty accomplished short track racer. So I buy into that, but is that true anymore of team? That was back in July or something? I don't know. Maybe or maybe not, but we gonna find out.

Bristol and Martinsville are both very good tracks for him overall. He has proven, he can run well at both places. There's no reason to believe, he isn't capable of that in 2017. Over the past 2 seasons, he has had one bad race at each racetrack. Let's look at Bristol first though. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he has compiled 3 Top 10 finishes with high finish of 5th in spring 2015. Overall, he has compiled 5 Top 13 finishes in the past 8 races at Bristol. Recent history says that Newman will finish in the 9th-16th place range. Over the past 8 races, 6 of his 8 races has came in 9th-16th. Martinsville is another good place for him! He isn't quite as good at Martinsville, but still pretty consistent though. Over the past 4 races, he has compiled 3 straight Top 16 finishes. With 4 of the past 5 races overall ending in 16th or better. He has also posted 3 Top 10 finishes in that 5-race span as well. Newman has posted 6 Top 11 finishes over his past 10 races at Martinsville, as a whole. He's very good on the short tracks, folks!

The shorter flats will be a good spot for him in 2017, I think. He has always been a solid driver at tracks like Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire. All three tracks are venues that he will likely have low-teen finish potential with upside. New Hampshire has been his best track of late though.  He has been very good with RCR at this place. He has compiled 6 Top 20 finishes with the #31 team in 6 starts with RCR. He also has posted 4 Top 11 finishes in that span. From career point of view, New Hampshire ranked as his 6th-best track in terms of average finish. His 12.0 average finish over the past two season ranked as his 9th-best track.

Richmond and Phoenix are also very good track for him as well. Richmond is his best track shorter flat track from a career-point of view. In 30 career starts at Richmond, he has compiled an 12.3 average finish with 27 Top 20 finishes. All he ever does is score top 20 finish after top 20 finish. He has posted 8 Top 15 finishes over his past 11 races. He has also posted 5 Top 20 finishes over his past 6 races as well. He should be a good bet to finish somewhere in the low to middle teens, or at worst inside the top 20 in 2017. He should be just as effective at Phoenix. He has only one bad race lately at Phoenix and that was in spring 2016. Overall, he has finished 12th or better in 6 of the past 7 races at Phoenix. When really looking at it, I might say that Phoenix is his best shorter-flat racetrack honestly. You could make a case for him at Phoenix over places like Richmond and New Hampshire. Much better track record at both of those venues from a career point of view, but most recently he has been lights out consistent at Phoenix!

The larger flats should also be very good to him in 2017! This is a type of track that he has had a lot of success on and there is no reason to think it will change. Pocono is one of Ryan's favorite tracks and has the track record to back it up. He has always ran very well there and his time with RCR hasn't changed that. Statistically over the past 2 seasons, it is ranked as his worst track overall. But two of those races were just pure shit luck. Got wrecked in June 2015 and finished a lap down in August 2015. You know how I know it was a fluke? Over his past 13 races at Pocono, he has finished 12th or better in 11 races. Two races, he didn't were those two races. He finished 12th in both races in 2016. Also he was running in the low-teen when he got wrecked in June 2015 by AJ Dinger. Just further backs up that Newman is the king of consistency at Pocono. IF you are fooled by his average finish when we come to Pocono in the season, then you clearly didn't do your research. Make sure you have Newman on your radar at Pocono!

Indy is another good place for him! He won back in 2013 and has found some success outside of that as well. Over the past 6 races at Indy, he has posted 5 Top 12 finishes. This is another track that ranked at the bottom over the past 2 seasons in terms of average finish. It is ranked 22nd of 23rd tracks. Just ahead of Pocono. But once again, don't be fooled by that. Anyone that does actual research will find out that he is pretty good at both tracks!

Road courses will be a pretty good spot for him, just like most type of tracks. Newman is very good at Sonoma and it ranks as his 2nd-best track in terms of average finish. Over the past 3 seasons, he has compiled 3 straight finishes of 11th or better. He has also posted 8 finishes of 18th or better in the past 9 races. Including 4 straight finishes of 15th or better overall. Newman has been on it of late at Sonoma. Not anything out of this world, but that's pretty good and more than respectable. Watkins is another good tack for Newman. However, he is nothing beyond low to middle teens driver though. Over his past 7 races at Watkins Glenn, he has compiled 6 finishes between 12th-16th. If history is any indication then you can expect him to be a top 15 driver at the road courses in 2017!

Plate tracks will where Newman is at his worst, he isn't bad but not great either though. Neither track is great for him overall. He is better at Talladega, I would say. He has some consistent numbers there. Over his past 7 races at Talladega, he has compiled 5 finishes of 14th or better. Including finishes of 14th, 12th and 7th in 3 of his past 4 races there. He is definitely trending in the right direction at Talladega, hopefully it continues in 2017, as well. Daytona is also good, but nothing overly special. Over the past 9 races here, he has compiled 6 Top 18 finishes in that span. In that span, he also posted 5 Top 11 finishes in those 6 races. Expect finishes in the 12th-18th place range at plate races.

In 2017, I think Newman biggest asset will be consistency and getting quality finishes. I think he can finish well in the lower to middle teens at just about any track on the schedule. There's won't be a weekend where he won't have the potential. Like most things in fantasy sports, it is about timing and finding the right spots. I would use him at Darlington, Cali, Pocono, Phoenix and Las Vegas first. Those are his best five tracks in my opinion. A couple of them you could swap out with some other tracks, if you really felt strongly about it though. I don't think Newman get back to victory lane in 2017, but I do believe he shows improvements in his top 5 finishes, top 10 finishes, top 15 finishes and top 20 finishes. Or at the very least, he backs up last season's numbers.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18