Monday, October 12, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Preview (Kansas)

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After a crazy Charlotte race, we turn our attention to another 1.5 mile racetrack in Kansas! Kansas is one of the most recently repaved tracks and quite frankly I think the racing sucks here more than before. It's a tough place to make passes, so qualifying will be huge and you can expect track position to be just as important all day long. This is a very fantasy friendly type track, so getting little sneaky with your lineups might not be a bad idea. So who should you consider for your team this week? Your answers await below!

1-JMac: JMac didn't blow us away at Charlotte, but he had a typical day and finished in the lower teens. That's all we can expect from him and this week is no different. Earlier this season, he was pretty good and had himself a decent race for the most part.  He started 9th and finished 13th. Over the past 4 races at Kansas, he have compiled 23.3 average finish, 14.5 average start, 13.3 average running position and 89.1 driver rating. When you glance at JMac's recent track record at Kansas, it's looks very ugly with only 1 top 10 finish since the 2005 season. However he been very competitive for his standards as you can see by looking at his 13.3 average running position. Last season he had a top 5 car in both races, but mechanical issues costed him great runs. Last Fall here, he  had a stupid fast car. He probably passed more cars than anyone, but bad luck was his worst nightmare. That have been the common theme for Jamie over the past few seasons at Kansas.

2-Brad Keselowski:: Keselowski needs to step up his performance big time this week or he could be looking possbly elimination when we go to Talladega. BK haven't had a bad race in the chase, so far but he haven't had a great one either. Kansas would be a good place to change that. Earlier this season he had a strong race and led 43 laps on his way to a 7th-place finish. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.3 average finish, 4.0 average start, 12.5 average running position and 93.7 driver rating. Outside of the 2011 season, he haven't really had a great finish. He have had a lot of 6th-13th place finishes, but nothing that really makes him stands out though. If you add in he only have one top 5 finish on this type track in 2015, you get the feeling nothing will change this week.

3-Austin Dillon: Dillon had one of his best runs of the season (as I thought he would) at Charlotte on Sunday. Now he goes to another track that he will have the potential to do well at. In his previous three races at Kansas, he have compiled 16.3 average finish, 21.0 average start, 18.3 average running position and 73.4 driver rating. In 4 career races, he only have one top 20 finish and that was last season with a 8th place finish. Much like last season, I feel like Dillon is starting to hit his stride in the 2nd half of the season. More importantly he is running better than he was last season. He is probably a top 15 headed into the weekend, or at worst a top 20 driver. Either way I would consider taking a shot with him, if I was in need of a quality fantasy option.

4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is in much a better situation in round 2 than he was in round 1, but I bet he still wants to lock himself in before Talladega. He been one of the strongest performers at Kansas since the repave and makes a very convincing argument on being the best driver on the 1.5 milers in 2015. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 4.3 average finish , 2.3 average start, 5.3 average running position and 130.0 driver rating. Earlier this season he was impressive and should have won. He finished 12 and 2nd last season but had the best car in both races. One of his strengths here is qualifying! Before qualifying 6th back in the spring, he had three straight poles dating back to his RCR days. He also have a 4-race streak of leading 50+ laps at Kansas. Also in that 4-race span, he have finished 1st or 2nd in 3 of those races.

5-Kasey Kahne: I knew it was only matter of time before Kasey Kahne burned caught-off guard fantasy players and he did exactly that at his best racetrack. There a reason why I consider him the most inconsistent driver in the NSCS! He been decent at Kansas recently, but I don't really trust him though. Earlier this season he finished 22nd here and wasn't ever a factor for the win, but ran better than that before fading late. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.3 average finish, 11.0 average start, 10.5 average running position and 96.0 driver rating. Kahne have ran well here often since joining HMS in 2012. He actually started off very well with HMS with 3 straight top 10 finishes in the 5 car. Including 2 top 5 finishes. His last 4 races? 15th, 3rd, 17th and 22nd. Not totally shocking considering we have saw Kasey's performance drop off majorly these past few seasons.

10-Danica Patrick: Patrick is coming off a top 20 finish at Charlotte and now goes to one of her better tracks on the schedule. Remember last season she had one of her best finishes ever, but she couldn't back it up earlier this season when she finished 27th with a overall average performance. Over the past four races here, she have compiled 23.3 average finish, 23.5 average start, 25.8 average running position and 63.3 driver rating. She finished 7th back in May 2014 (last season) and followed that up with a 16th place finish later in the season. However she struggled and probably only had about a top 25 car at best, before gaining some track position late. The obviously struggled earlier this season here as well. I say she is nothing more than a 18th-22nd place driver. I would lean more towards something around 20th or so though.

11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is quietly have the best chase out of anyone. So far in 4 races, he have 3 top 4 finishes and is the only driver in the field who can say that. He is a former winner of this track, but have obviously struggled to find consistent finishes though. Especially since the track been repaved! Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 22.3 average finish, 19.5 average start, 15.3 average running position and 78.2 driver rating. If you look at his track record, you will clearly see he have struggled to finish out races with only 4 top 10s in 14 career starts. More recently he have finishes of 41st, 7th, 18th and 23rd. Not something that is encouraging as a fantasy option. However I think momentum is more important. Also I think common sense is a must-have skill in this sport. Anyone who been watching lately knows that Hamlin have consistently ran very well, even if the numbers says he wouldn't.

18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson both are two of the most talented drivers in the field, but at Charlotte they wrecked on pit road. I actually recalled a few close calls on Sunday between them on the track or on pit road. Nevertheless it majorly damaged Kyle Busch's chances of advancing to round 2. Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 17.3 average finish, 16.3 average start, 16.7 average running position and 78.2 driver rating. A lot of people try to make out like Kyle Busch is terrible at Kansas and I disagree. He's bad here, but not terrible. He have finished races here, but he have also ended in the garage early. Over his past 8 races at Kansas , he have 5 finishes of 15th or better. Including 4 finishes of 12th or better. That's not terrible by any means, but it also not very Rowdy-like either. For his advancement chances, I think he needs a real strong run, but I don't think he needs to win though.

19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is having a nice chase so far with only one non-top 6 finishes through 4 races. At Charlotte he ran top 10 all day long and finished 6th. At Kansas, I expect him to contend for the win! Earlier this season, he didn't finish very well. He had a pretty off-race and finished 20th, but that was before JGR turn on the power and got rolling. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 9.0 average finish, 7.5 average start, 11.5 average running position and 95.9 driver rating. Dating back to the 2008 season (12 races ago), he have wheeled off 9 Top 10 finishes over that 12 race span. I think it will be very unlikely for Edwards to finish outside of the top 10 at one of his best tracks on the schedule!

20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth had a very poor showing at Charlotte, but he rarely have bad back-to-back races! He comes to one of his best racetracks and have been a very consistent finisher here too. Over the past 4 races at Kansas, he have compiled 10.0 average finish, 20.0 average start, 14.5 average running position and 91.1 driver rating. He have finished 13th or better in 10 straight races at Kansas. Including 9 Top 10 finishes in that span. For leagues that offers bonus points for leading laps, he have led in 8 of 10 races.  Also Kenseth been a strong performer this season on the 1.5 miler and there no reason to believe that will change this week. He may be overlooked after a disappoint race at Charlotte.

22-Joey Logano: If you didn't have Logano on your fantasy team at Charlotte, then it was a very long day for you! I wasn't surprised at all either how dominant he was. He been super consistent all season and it was only matter of time before he knocked off another win. I don't expect him to slow down at Kansas. Earlier this season, he finished 5th after leading 29 laps earlier in the event. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 3.5 average finish, 3.0 average start, 5.3 average running position and 125.8 driver rating. Those stats are all ranked 1st or 2nd in the series. He have 4 straight top 5 finishes at Kansas! He been impressive on the mile and half racetracks all season long and there should be no question that he continues his impressive run. Regardless if he locked into Round 3 or not.

24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon may be Hendrick's best shot at the championship after Charlotte! Gordon doesn't need to win at Kansas, but a top 10 run would put him in a decent spot heading into the unpredictable Talladega race. Earlier this season, he finish 4th back which was surprising to me. He been strong here since the repave and could be in for another solid run! Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 5.5 average finish, 10.8 average start, 10.8 average running position and 104.6 driver rating. Since the repave, he have not finished worse than 14th. I don't think Gordon have another top 5 finish at Kansas, but I do believe he is pretty much a lock for a top 10 finish. Or least close to it. My big problem with Gordon is he doesn't have enough upside to be considered a top-tier option. Most weekends, he is nothing more than at top 10 guy. That's not good enough for a superstar caliber driver like Gordon!

27-Paul Menard: Menard have turned into one of the most inconsistent fantasy options in the field over the course of the 2nd half of the season. He doesn't have much fantasy value left at the moment, despite having a very fantasy friendly outlook for Kansas. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.8 average finish, 14.8 average start, 12.8 average running position and 89.2 driver rating.

41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch have had a tough time finishing races recently at Kansas, but he didn't have any problem back in May when he finished 8th. Sadly that been one of the few bright finishes in the top 10 throughout his career. In 19 career starts, he have only 5 Top 10 finishes. On plus side he does have 12 total Top 20 finishes in 19 starts. Most recently at the track he been just okay. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 20.3 average finish, 14.3 average start, 19.8 average running position and 79.0 driver rating. I will put it simply: When Kurt takes care of his care at Kansas, he usually finishes well. When he doesn't, then well bad things will happen. Now don't forget that Kurt have finished 2nd and 5th in the previous two races on the 1.5 milers (Charlotte and Chicagoland).

42-Kyle Larson: I am a huge Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch fan! So when they wrecked entering pit road, it was pretty much my worst nightmare! On the positive side, Larson was having himself a heck of run before that. I would say it was the most competitive I seen him since his rookie season. He have not finished worse than 15th in three career starts at Kansas. Earlier this season, he ran very well and should have finished inside the top 10 but had to settle for 15th instead. In that race he held the 5th-best average running position (8.0) and the 6th-best driver rating (105.0). Larson have obviously been running much better than he was back in May. So he should easily contend for a top 10 finish.

48-Jimmie Johnson: I don't really trust Johnson at his point after back-to-back poor finishes! It's tough to consider Johnson at Kansas because we don't know what to expect from him. Earlier this season, he went to victory lane here. Even though he wasn't quite that good. He wasn't bad, but I thought there was least 3 or 4 drivers would performed better though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.0 average finish, 17.0 average start, 16.0 average running position and 90.7 driver rating. His stats are misleading though. In that 4-race span, he have that 40th place finish from last season here in the chase. Minus that poor finish, he have knocked off 12 straight finishes of 9th or better. He is easily one of the better drivers ever at Kansas!

78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex Jr is coming off a 3rd place finish which is his first top 5 finish since all the way back at Michigan on August 16th. So nearly two months! On the plus side, he is in very good shape in terms of points. Earlier this season he probably had the car to beat until late in the race and then just faded down the leaderboard. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.3 average finish, 14.5 average start, 13.3 average running position and 93.3 driver rating. Kansas have been a very good track for Truex dating back to 2012 with MWR. In the past 7 races here, he have wheeled off 4 Top 5 finishes and worst finish of 21st back in 2014. I don't think the 78 team was on the same page as Truex back then, now they are clicking and we are seeing the results. I expect Truex to be a heavy contender!

88-Dale Jr: Junior Nation I gave your driver some love in my fantasy nascar update and you made me look foolish! Never fear, Dale Jr and HMS will probably bring their best cars to the track over the next two weeks! Question is will it be enough? I don't think he need to win at Kansas, but anything short of a top 5 may hurt. Earlier this season, Dale Jr didn't really contend for the win but found his way to the front when it counted most and finished 3rd. Last season at Kansas in the chase he was stupid fast! Of course that was before smacking the wall and ending his chase chances. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.8 average finish, 13.3 average start, 11.8 average running position and 104.2 driver rating. I do believe the 88 team will bring their best equipment and try to win!

****All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet

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