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After Kansas, we are heading to Talladega! The big one will be waiting and never know when it will strike. It could be the first lap or it could the last lap. Or could be the 50th lap. Point being this race is a total crapshoot and it may be the most frustrating race on the schedule to watch as a fantasy player. However as a fan it hard to not get excited about it. So there two choices you can either be worried sick about if your lineup will survive the big one or you just get get drunk while your lineup go to complete crap! Let face it, there nothing you can do to prepare for this race. It's all about being in the right place at the right time! Alright let's get started
Drivers i like:
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is a very underrated plate racer and have proven in the past that he is very capable of winning these races. Brad doesn't always finish these races, but when he does watch out! He obviously won't be the most picked driver this week, but if he can avoid the big one then he is likely gonna finish near the front. Now remember, he have won there three times already in his career. In fact, he have 7 Top 10 in 13 career starts. Including a victory in last year's chase at Talladega!
4-Kevin Harvick: It's very hard to go to Talladega or Daytona and not mention a guy like Kevin Harvick. He needs a good finish this weekend and he have found plenty of success on the plates. More specifically he been one of the most reliable fantasy options of late here. He have wheeled off 4 straight top 12 finishes, including 3 straight top 9 finishes. If we look back further, he have finished 12th or better in 5 of the past 6 races. I don't think it ever been a secret that Harvick is a great plate racer. He just have a knack for running well at these type of races. Plus it on the big stage and we all know, he show up big on the big stage.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is machine on the plate the past few seasons and should be in position to make another great run on Sunday. Hamlin is in my opinion one of the the best plate racers in Nascar and I think it goes beyond just finishing up front. He understands how to race in the draft. That puts him up there with guys like Earnhardt and Johnson, who are usually the first names come to mind at these races. He obviously have gotten better results at Daytona lately, but I have a real great feeling about the 11 this week.
15-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is someone who you count to be a contender for a solid finish at Talladega. Outside of the road courses, I consider Talladega his best racetrack and often he holds that to be true. Dating back to the 2009 season, he have knocked off 9 finishes of 12th or better. Including 8 Top 10 finishes, he really is one of the best plate racers in the field. A lot of luck is involved most times, but nevertheless he is a quality fantasy pick with tons of upside.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is trying for the chase round sweep at Talladega and I would not be shocked if he accomplished it. He been fast everywhere he have gone and won at the Daytona 500 earlier this season and finished 4th in this race last season. Joey is one of the best all-around drivers in the sport. He can run well at any track, given he avoid wrecks. He didn't that good of a job at Talladega back in May. However I think he is due for a solid finish here though. Typically he finishes better in the fall's race than the spring's race. He have 4 top 16 finishes in 6 starts in the fall's Talladega race. 2 top 20 in the spring in 7 starts. Joey obviously needs a breakout finish at Talladega with Penske and with the way his luck been this season, it's only matter of time.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have came into his own as a plate racer! Don't think it happened overnight, either. He spent a few seasons with Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer as teammates, and obviously they found a lot of success at both Daytona and Talladega. It have rubbed off some on Menard and his recent performance reflects that. Since joining RCR in 2011 (9 races), he have knocked off 6 Top 20 finishes with 5 Top 12 finishes in that 9 race span. Most recently? He have 3 top 6 finishes in the past 4 races. In fact if we dig deeper, we will discover that Paul have a knack for finishing these races. Dating back to 2008 (15 races), he have finished 10 of those 15 races in 17th or better.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt is probably the best plate racer to never win. He is a savvy racer and usually find a way to sneak away with a quality finish. In recent years, he have struggled to finish well at Talladega, But he have gotten back to decent finishes since joining SHR in 2013. In fact, his past two efforts have ended in 7th and 12th. Before that? From October 2010 to May 2014, he finished every race no better than 18th. Obviously he spent a good chunk of those races on underfunded raceteams. That doesn't accurately describe how good Kurt been in the past here. He may not be at the front at start of the race, but he will be there challenging for the win. Question is can he avoid the big one? That's on everyone minds this week!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is in my opinion the most underrated plate racer in Nascar and he shouldn't be underrated. He obviously have been one of the most reliable fantasy options over the past few seasons. Since the start of the 2012 season , he been one of the stronger drivers on this type track. He seems to finish better at Daytona, but he finished 2nd earlier this season at Talladega. In fact last season, he had one of the strongest cars in this race. He finished 24th, but he led nearly half of the laps. He was easily a top 3 driver for that race. He may have to take a backseat to teammate Dale Jr again, but I don't think he would mind that too much though.
88-Dale Jr: The Pied-piper. Nascar's Most popular driver. Dale Earnhardt Jr! I consider him a dominating force at these races, however I wouldn't call him invincible. Even Dale Jr isn't safe from the big one. With him at these venues, does it really matter? I do think it important to note that Dale Jr only have one top 10 in the fall's Talladega race since the 2005 season. I know trends are useless here, but they are fun to play with. But c'mon is anyone really going to leave Dale Jr off their roster? Yeah I don't think so. The upside is too great in my opinion. He is simply the best on this type racetrack. He have 1.7 average finish on the plate track this season. That alone should make him one of your top-tier drivers.
Drivers I dislike:
1-JMac: You either love him or hate him, and I am on the latter part of the question. I think he is overrated at these races. i think he a excellent plate racer, but he just cannot finish most times. No disrespect to him, but he is a boom or bust. Sure he can knock out quality finishes from time to time. However he seems to have bad days more than good. Over the past 18 races at Talladega, he have 5 top 10 finishes. 4 of them ended inside the top 5. That's good, right? Here the bad. In that same 18 race span, he have finished 21th or better in 11 of those races. Again this race is all about being in the right place and the right time. Could his luck change at Talladega? Sure. Or it could be continue to be rotten.
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke have struggled pretty bad at Talladega recently and it really goes back number of years. He is having another down year and his recent record at Talladega could indicate more trouble for him. His last top 10 finish was 2011, when he finished 7th here in the fall. That remains his sole top 15 finish since forming SHR in 2009. Back with JGR, he was considered one of the best drivers at this track. From 2001 to 2006, he had 7 top 3 finishes in a 11 race span. That's pretty impressive. That was then and this now. These days a top 20 is considered a good finish for him.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Ricky comes into Talladega with 4 straight top 15 finishes. However it may come to a end this weekend. He started off his career very well at the plate tracks. However the past year or two, he have greatly declined and no longer getting quality finishes. At Talladega, he only have one bad finish and that was back in May. He also have 3 straight bad finishes at Daytona. So 4 straight finishes outside of the top 20. That's not ideal to me. RFR have shown more speed of late, but he just haven't had any luck at these plate races lately.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy have back-to-back top 5 finishes at Kansas now, but he is biggest challenge may be at Talladega though. Last season he was in a great position to advance, but was caught up in a wreck. He needs some help to advance to the next round, but finishing on the lead lap will probably sent him to the next round. That's easier said than done though. He been all or nothing really. Since 2011 (8 races), he have finished 3 races inside the top 5 and 4 races outside of the top 30. His only finish in the middle was 12th in May 2014. It's hard to get behind a guy like Kyle Busch with so much on the line.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth was once a dominant driver at Talladega and Daytona, but since joining JGR he been a average driver. To a certain extent. In 2013, he was very tough to beat as JGR had a major advantage over the field for most of the season. He finished 8th in the spring and 20th in the fall. In 2014, he had finishes of 37th and 2nd. Earlier this season, he finished 25th. I don't hate Kenseth totally, but it hard to deny that Kenseth may try a little too hard to win. It's a win or go home situation for the 20 team and that may not be ideal for a fantasy pick.
42-Kyle Larson: I don't think Kyle Larson is looking forward to Talladega too much, especially considering the results he have gotten on this type track so far in his career. In 3 starts here, he have been much better here than Daytona. Still he haven't had that breakout race yet. Last season he had finishes of 17th and 9th. Which still remains his only top 20 finishes at either superspeedway. Well I could see him having a solid run on Sunday, I think it will come down to luck. With his luck this season? I would try to look elsewhere to be honest!
55-David Ragan: Ragan who is most famous for winning at Talladega in spring of 2013 in one of the biggest upsets in recent years. What made him such a popular fantasy sleeper that race was his solid track record. It paid off for those brave people who gambled with him! It was truly memorable because it was that ''Game 7'' moment. The underdogs overcoming the odds and knocking off the heavy favorites! However since 2013, he have not finished better than 30th. I believe he peaked with his win in spring of 2013 and he will be always looking for that new high. Problem is a driver like Ragan won't ever reach that high again. Due to his equipment and/or abilities behind the wheel.
Potential Sleepers:
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is one of the best plate racers in the field and probably one of the youngest too. I have watched this dude go from a mid-twenty driver to a top 10 driver over the past year in the Sprint Cup Series. He will be in victory lane soon and it might be this weekend at Talladega. In his debut in 2013 at this track, he was running inside the top 5 before getting wrecked on the final lap. In his rookie season as a Cup driver, he was solid. He finished 13th in both races last season. Earlier this season, he blew up despite having a solid day overall. His Daytona record is even more impressive than that. Outside of a few bad finishes, Dillon is at his best on the superspeedways!
9-Sam Hornish Jr: I shouldn't really give any love to Sammy, but I guess there a first time for every time. Sammy been decent this season on the plate tracks overall! He finished 12th back at the 500 and 6th back in the spring at Talladega. The Summer Daytona didn't go according to plan. But I will give him mad props for his effort. He got involved in both of the big ones and still was running 14th before someone wrecked him with 5 laps to go. I cannot remember but I think it was David Ragan who got into him. Anyhow I wouldn't pick him, but if you are feeling luck than be my guess.
13-Casey Mears: My personal favorite sleeper this weekend is Casey Mears! I expect him to be overlooked and in fact I am banking on that too! Mears track record here is not as impressive like it is at Daytona and that why most people will overlook him. Facts remain that the 13 team seems to be able to find ways to finish these kinds of races out. He was running very well earlier this season, until he was caught up in a late-lap crash.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon will make his final start at Talladega and wouldn't be sweet for the former 6-time winner to go out on top? I think it would, but he have had trouble finishing at both Daytona and Talladega in recent seasons. This season, he have been one of the strongest drivers on this type track. Back at the 500, he arguably had the best car and led nearly half of the race. But he lost the lead and could never make it back. At Talladega, he started on the pole like he did at the 500 and once again finished deep in the field. There no questions about the strength of the 24 car on the superspeedways, but question is can he keep it up front?
43-Aric Almirola: Aric enters Talladega as one of the hottest drivers in Nascar and been one of the most consistent drivers as well. He have found some success here recently too. Since making his RPM debut in 2010 (8 races), he have finished 6 races inside of the top 20. In fact, he have 4 top 15 finishes in that span. Only once since joining RPM have he failed to finish on the lead lap. Pretty good, wouldn't you say? He may be a real sneaky sleeper to employ into your lineups!
Twitter - @JeffNathans
After Kansas, we are heading to Talladega! The big one will be waiting and never know when it will strike. It could be the first lap or it could the last lap. Or could be the 50th lap. Point being this race is a total crapshoot and it may be the most frustrating race on the schedule to watch as a fantasy player. However as a fan it hard to not get excited about it. So there two choices you can either be worried sick about if your lineup will survive the big one or you just get get drunk while your lineup go to complete crap! Let face it, there nothing you can do to prepare for this race. It's all about being in the right place at the right time! Alright let's get started
Drivers i like:
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is a very underrated plate racer and have proven in the past that he is very capable of winning these races. Brad doesn't always finish these races, but when he does watch out! He obviously won't be the most picked driver this week, but if he can avoid the big one then he is likely gonna finish near the front. Now remember, he have won there three times already in his career. In fact, he have 7 Top 10 in 13 career starts. Including a victory in last year's chase at Talladega!
4-Kevin Harvick: It's very hard to go to Talladega or Daytona and not mention a guy like Kevin Harvick. He needs a good finish this weekend and he have found plenty of success on the plates. More specifically he been one of the most reliable fantasy options of late here. He have wheeled off 4 straight top 12 finishes, including 3 straight top 9 finishes. If we look back further, he have finished 12th or better in 5 of the past 6 races. I don't think it ever been a secret that Harvick is a great plate racer. He just have a knack for running well at these type of races. Plus it on the big stage and we all know, he show up big on the big stage.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is machine on the plate the past few seasons and should be in position to make another great run on Sunday. Hamlin is in my opinion one of the the best plate racers in Nascar and I think it goes beyond just finishing up front. He understands how to race in the draft. That puts him up there with guys like Earnhardt and Johnson, who are usually the first names come to mind at these races. He obviously have gotten better results at Daytona lately, but I have a real great feeling about the 11 this week.
15-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is someone who you count to be a contender for a solid finish at Talladega. Outside of the road courses, I consider Talladega his best racetrack and often he holds that to be true. Dating back to the 2009 season, he have knocked off 9 finishes of 12th or better. Including 8 Top 10 finishes, he really is one of the best plate racers in the field. A lot of luck is involved most times, but nevertheless he is a quality fantasy pick with tons of upside.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is trying for the chase round sweep at Talladega and I would not be shocked if he accomplished it. He been fast everywhere he have gone and won at the Daytona 500 earlier this season and finished 4th in this race last season. Joey is one of the best all-around drivers in the sport. He can run well at any track, given he avoid wrecks. He didn't that good of a job at Talladega back in May. However I think he is due for a solid finish here though. Typically he finishes better in the fall's race than the spring's race. He have 4 top 16 finishes in 6 starts in the fall's Talladega race. 2 top 20 in the spring in 7 starts. Joey obviously needs a breakout finish at Talladega with Penske and with the way his luck been this season, it's only matter of time.
27-Paul Menard: Menard have came into his own as a plate racer! Don't think it happened overnight, either. He spent a few seasons with Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer as teammates, and obviously they found a lot of success at both Daytona and Talladega. It have rubbed off some on Menard and his recent performance reflects that. Since joining RCR in 2011 (9 races), he have knocked off 6 Top 20 finishes with 5 Top 12 finishes in that 9 race span. Most recently? He have 3 top 6 finishes in the past 4 races. In fact if we dig deeper, we will discover that Paul have a knack for finishing these races. Dating back to 2008 (15 races), he have finished 10 of those 15 races in 17th or better.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt is probably the best plate racer to never win. He is a savvy racer and usually find a way to sneak away with a quality finish. In recent years, he have struggled to finish well at Talladega, But he have gotten back to decent finishes since joining SHR in 2013. In fact, his past two efforts have ended in 7th and 12th. Before that? From October 2010 to May 2014, he finished every race no better than 18th. Obviously he spent a good chunk of those races on underfunded raceteams. That doesn't accurately describe how good Kurt been in the past here. He may not be at the front at start of the race, but he will be there challenging for the win. Question is can he avoid the big one? That's on everyone minds this week!
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is in my opinion the most underrated plate racer in Nascar and he shouldn't be underrated. He obviously have been one of the most reliable fantasy options over the past few seasons. Since the start of the 2012 season , he been one of the stronger drivers on this type track. He seems to finish better at Daytona, but he finished 2nd earlier this season at Talladega. In fact last season, he had one of the strongest cars in this race. He finished 24th, but he led nearly half of the laps. He was easily a top 3 driver for that race. He may have to take a backseat to teammate Dale Jr again, but I don't think he would mind that too much though.
88-Dale Jr: The Pied-piper. Nascar's Most popular driver. Dale Earnhardt Jr! I consider him a dominating force at these races, however I wouldn't call him invincible. Even Dale Jr isn't safe from the big one. With him at these venues, does it really matter? I do think it important to note that Dale Jr only have one top 10 in the fall's Talladega race since the 2005 season. I know trends are useless here, but they are fun to play with. But c'mon is anyone really going to leave Dale Jr off their roster? Yeah I don't think so. The upside is too great in my opinion. He is simply the best on this type racetrack. He have 1.7 average finish on the plate track this season. That alone should make him one of your top-tier drivers.
Drivers I dislike:
1-JMac: You either love him or hate him, and I am on the latter part of the question. I think he is overrated at these races. i think he a excellent plate racer, but he just cannot finish most times. No disrespect to him, but he is a boom or bust. Sure he can knock out quality finishes from time to time. However he seems to have bad days more than good. Over the past 18 races at Talladega, he have 5 top 10 finishes. 4 of them ended inside the top 5. That's good, right? Here the bad. In that same 18 race span, he have finished 21th or better in 11 of those races. Again this race is all about being in the right place and the right time. Could his luck change at Talladega? Sure. Or it could be continue to be rotten.
14-Tony Stewart: Smoke have struggled pretty bad at Talladega recently and it really goes back number of years. He is having another down year and his recent record at Talladega could indicate more trouble for him. His last top 10 finish was 2011, when he finished 7th here in the fall. That remains his sole top 15 finish since forming SHR in 2009. Back with JGR, he was considered one of the best drivers at this track. From 2001 to 2006, he had 7 top 3 finishes in a 11 race span. That's pretty impressive. That was then and this now. These days a top 20 is considered a good finish for him.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Ricky comes into Talladega with 4 straight top 15 finishes. However it may come to a end this weekend. He started off his career very well at the plate tracks. However the past year or two, he have greatly declined and no longer getting quality finishes. At Talladega, he only have one bad finish and that was back in May. He also have 3 straight bad finishes at Daytona. So 4 straight finishes outside of the top 20. That's not ideal to me. RFR have shown more speed of late, but he just haven't had any luck at these plate races lately.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy have back-to-back top 5 finishes at Kansas now, but he is biggest challenge may be at Talladega though. Last season he was in a great position to advance, but was caught up in a wreck. He needs some help to advance to the next round, but finishing on the lead lap will probably sent him to the next round. That's easier said than done though. He been all or nothing really. Since 2011 (8 races), he have finished 3 races inside the top 5 and 4 races outside of the top 30. His only finish in the middle was 12th in May 2014. It's hard to get behind a guy like Kyle Busch with so much on the line.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth was once a dominant driver at Talladega and Daytona, but since joining JGR he been a average driver. To a certain extent. In 2013, he was very tough to beat as JGR had a major advantage over the field for most of the season. He finished 8th in the spring and 20th in the fall. In 2014, he had finishes of 37th and 2nd. Earlier this season, he finished 25th. I don't hate Kenseth totally, but it hard to deny that Kenseth may try a little too hard to win. It's a win or go home situation for the 20 team and that may not be ideal for a fantasy pick.
42-Kyle Larson: I don't think Kyle Larson is looking forward to Talladega too much, especially considering the results he have gotten on this type track so far in his career. In 3 starts here, he have been much better here than Daytona. Still he haven't had that breakout race yet. Last season he had finishes of 17th and 9th. Which still remains his only top 20 finishes at either superspeedway. Well I could see him having a solid run on Sunday, I think it will come down to luck. With his luck this season? I would try to look elsewhere to be honest!
55-David Ragan: Ragan who is most famous for winning at Talladega in spring of 2013 in one of the biggest upsets in recent years. What made him such a popular fantasy sleeper that race was his solid track record. It paid off for those brave people who gambled with him! It was truly memorable because it was that ''Game 7'' moment. The underdogs overcoming the odds and knocking off the heavy favorites! However since 2013, he have not finished better than 30th. I believe he peaked with his win in spring of 2013 and he will be always looking for that new high. Problem is a driver like Ragan won't ever reach that high again. Due to his equipment and/or abilities behind the wheel.
Potential Sleepers:
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon is one of the best plate racers in the field and probably one of the youngest too. I have watched this dude go from a mid-twenty driver to a top 10 driver over the past year in the Sprint Cup Series. He will be in victory lane soon and it might be this weekend at Talladega. In his debut in 2013 at this track, he was running inside the top 5 before getting wrecked on the final lap. In his rookie season as a Cup driver, he was solid. He finished 13th in both races last season. Earlier this season, he blew up despite having a solid day overall. His Daytona record is even more impressive than that. Outside of a few bad finishes, Dillon is at his best on the superspeedways!
9-Sam Hornish Jr: I shouldn't really give any love to Sammy, but I guess there a first time for every time. Sammy been decent this season on the plate tracks overall! He finished 12th back at the 500 and 6th back in the spring at Talladega. The Summer Daytona didn't go according to plan. But I will give him mad props for his effort. He got involved in both of the big ones and still was running 14th before someone wrecked him with 5 laps to go. I cannot remember but I think it was David Ragan who got into him. Anyhow I wouldn't pick him, but if you are feeling luck than be my guess.
13-Casey Mears: My personal favorite sleeper this weekend is Casey Mears! I expect him to be overlooked and in fact I am banking on that too! Mears track record here is not as impressive like it is at Daytona and that why most people will overlook him. Facts remain that the 13 team seems to be able to find ways to finish these kinds of races out. He was running very well earlier this season, until he was caught up in a late-lap crash.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon will make his final start at Talladega and wouldn't be sweet for the former 6-time winner to go out on top? I think it would, but he have had trouble finishing at both Daytona and Talladega in recent seasons. This season, he have been one of the strongest drivers on this type track. Back at the 500, he arguably had the best car and led nearly half of the race. But he lost the lead and could never make it back. At Talladega, he started on the pole like he did at the 500 and once again finished deep in the field. There no questions about the strength of the 24 car on the superspeedways, but question is can he keep it up front?
43-Aric Almirola: Aric enters Talladega as one of the hottest drivers in Nascar and been one of the most consistent drivers as well. He have found some success here recently too. Since making his RPM debut in 2010 (8 races), he have finished 6 races inside of the top 20. In fact, he have 4 top 15 finishes in that span. Only once since joining RPM have he failed to finish on the lead lap. Pretty good, wouldn't you say? He may be a real sneaky sleeper to employ into your lineups!
Twitter - @JeffNathans
