Saturday, October 31, 2015

Fantasy Nascar Update (Martinsville)

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Martinsville is one of a kind racetrack in my opinion as there no other track on the schedule that is truly similar. That why you only saw past Martinsville stats back in my preview and honestly I believe this is a driver track as well. In other words, you either know how to get around this place or you don't. Obviously a select group of drivers have been able to put themselves above the pack here. From a fantasy vantage point, I think it will be very difficult to nail a solid lineup this weekend. Mainly because we usually see some comers and goers. If you can stay near the front, then you have a great shot at victory lane! Along as you don't make a stupid decision along the way. Right, Jeff Gordon? Alright let get started!

***Overall Rankings are based on practice and qualifying results, track history, current momentum, personal feelings,etc.

***This should not be used as a prediction for the finishing order. Check out Kate's Final Rankings instead.

A:

1. Joey Logano - Logano is too hot to not be ranked #1 and I think that is pretty obviously without even knowing how good his car is for this weekend! He been a top 5 machine for what seems like forever, as anytime he get in a car he almost always finishes near the front. His reliability really gives him a safety net in my opinion, as I have said before consistency is the backbone for fantasy success. At Martinsville, he always have been a solid driver. However, since joining Penske he have turned up his game here. He have three striaght top 5 finishes heading into this race and will start from the pole on Sunday! He was fast in both practices on Sunday and is clearly one of the drivers to beat!

My Overall Ranking: 1st

2. Jeff Gordon - Gordon have had the best car the past two races, but he shot himself in the foot (I referred to that in the opening paragraph) in both races! Gordon have a fast car this weekend as many of us expected him to. He qualified very well and should be a heavy contender for Sunday's race. For me, Gordon just doesn't have a fast car. He knows how to get around this place better than anyone else in the field. If you want a safe pick then please just roll with the 24 car! 22 of the past 25 races have ended inside the top 10 and most of those have resulted in top 5 finishes. I think Gordon is easily a top 5 driver with victory lane potential.

My Overall Ranking: 2nd

3. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch is my dark horse in this tier, he have been overlooked all week long as a fantasy pick. I think he have the speed to win from the 6th starting position. If a JGR car will return to victory lane, I think it will be the 18 of Kyle Busch! Rowdy haven't always been a great driver, but he have learned a lot from his Hendrick days with Gordon and Johnson. He also have learned a lot from Denny Hamlin. Pretty good guys to have as teammates, don't ya think? I have Busch pinned as a top 5 driver headed into Sunday's race.

My Overall Ranking: 3rd

4. Kevin Harvick - Harvick will start from 12th but I don't get he will dominate though. It been awhile since we have seen him unload a dominating car like we saw at Dover earlier in the chase. He always seems to be good, but not great. On Saturday, Harvick was very pleased with his racecar and should be a heavy contender for the race. I say he is a top 5 driver headed into the race, but not sure if this is the best place to unload him though. The next three tracks on the schedule are the place I would rather use him at. Harvick at his best value when he starts up front and lead a lot of laps. That's when you would want to employ him in every fantasy format. I will take some action on him, but he is far from a must-have in my opinion.

My Overall Ranking: 4th

5. Dale Jr - Dale Jr have turned into one of the better drivers lately at Martinsville and will look to find victory lane for the 2nd straight season at the half-mile racetrack! He will start basically mid-pack, but he have a bad fast chevy this weekend. Very quick in both practices and had solid long run speed as well. He should be a great off-sequence fantasy pick for those of you who want to gain ground on the competition. On Twitter, Dale Jr sounded very pretty confident after both practices. I will take the word of a driver all day long!

My Overall Ranking: 6th

Other Options - Brad Keselowski(7th), Jimmie Johnson (8th), Denny Hamlin (10th), Matt Kenseth (11th) and Ryan Newman (13th)

B:

1. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr starts from 2nd and should contend for a top 5 finish on Sunday! He finished 6th earlier this season and look like he could repeat that performance this weekend. Truex have been one of the most consistent performers during the 2015 chase, so don't be shocked if he finishes near the front when the checkers wave. He was fast in both practices and sounded real happy about his car. My concern is he usually fall through the running order in late stages of the race. One mistake could put you mid-pack, remember Kansas a few weeks ago? However we cannot tell the future, so roll with Truex in most fantasy formats!

My Overall Ranking: 5th

2. Carl Edwards - Edwards will start from the 15th starting position, but Edwards sounded positive that he could win the race from there after qualifying. You know what, I will take his word from it. JGR been strong all season long and there no reason to believe that won't be the case on Sunday. Edwards have done some of his best work after starting middle of the road. In fact, I would say it helped it sometimes this season. In practice, Edwards didn't blow me away, but I do think he least have a good enough car to finish inside the top 10 on Sunday. Maybe even a little better. He have some great track coming up and a solid finish would go a long way to helping him win his first Cup Series championship.

My Overall Ranking: 9th

3. Kurt Busch - I will come out and say it I don't like Busch very much here at Martinsville. His track record is a major red flag to me. Only 2 top 10s in his past 18 races. Not only that but he also starting middle of the road, but the biggest concern is that Busch been inconsistent all season. One week he will finish inside the top 5 and the next he finishes 15th. I may be overreacting to this, but I am not crazy about a driver who have a lackluster track record with inconsistent season results. He was good in practice, but not really enough to make me say he is a must-have in most fantasy formats. He had solid long run speed, if that matters to everyone? If you have him at a nice value, then sure go for it! Otherwise I think he will be better at upcoming races like Texas and Phoenix! I think Kurt is low-end Top 10 driver or a high-teen driver.

My Overall Ranking: 12th

4. JMac - I got to give some love to JMac this week! He surprised me with a strong top 5 qualifying effort, even though I bragged about him in my preview. He also looked good in practice on Saturday and could be in for a great run on Sunday! He seems to have more short run speed than long speed, but still easily a top 15 driver. He ran great here recently and if history hold true, I think he will be a great value. Shouldn't be shocked I guess. He always had a knack for running well on the short-flats. Usually his best days will come on the short-flats. As I stated back in the offseason in his season preview post!

My Overall Ranking: 14th

5. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer will roll off from mid-pack, but should be a solid fantasy pick to any lineup on Sunday! Martinsville always been a solid track for him and even when he didn't have a good car, he still managed to come way with a decent finish. Heck earlier this season, he was terrible all weekend and still finished in the top 15. Headed into the race, I have him pinned as a top 15 driver! Even though I think he will have the potential to sneak into the top 10 before the checkers.

My Overall Ranking: 15th

Other Options - Paul Menard (16th), AJ Dinger (17th), Kyle Larson (18th), Kasey Kahne (19th) and Greg Biffle (20th)

C:

1. David Ragan - Ragan once again topped this tier of drivers, but that not saying much now. I am not sure what happened in qualifying, but I am sure he will be able to drive through the field though. I wouldn't call this his best track, but I do believe he is still the best driver with the best equipment in this tier. Plus he looked pretty good in race trim on Saturday. Not much to say about David, he is so hard to read on a weekly basis! You don't know if he will finish inside the top 20 or finish in the garage. For real just look at his results. There is no pattern to him.

My Overall Ranking: 21st

2. Danica Patrick - I think Danica could easily outrun David Ragan, but like Ragan she is inconsistent with her results. Earlier this season, she had a great run. However that race was crazy and a lot of good racecars were multiple laps down. So hard saying where she would have finished if the race played out according to plan. Headed into the race I would say she is a top 20 driver, but since I know Danica I would say to lower your expectations to a top 25. She love throwing us curve balls, doesn't she?

My Overall Ranking: 22nd

3. Justin Allgaier - Allgaier seems to have his best efforts on the shorter racetracks, but I don't think that hold true for all of them. Martinsville wasn't too kind for him earlier this season as he finished 42nd in the race. He wasn't terrible in practice on Saturday, but he didn't really do anything to tell me he could finish any better than 25th or so. I am not real high on him as most people seems to be. If you start him and he finishes well, then great more power to you. However I am not banking on that.

My Overall Ranking: 26th

Twitter - @JeffNathans