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Fantasy Preview -
1-JMac: JMac is coming off his best finish of the season (not named Talladega) and probably his best overall race as well. The Driver of the No.1 car was very good at Kentucky and should use that as momentum at New Hampshire. He use to be a short-flat track stud, but he have fallen off this season it seems. As he have struggled to produce the results on the short-flat tracks earlier in the season. But Gannasi is bringing better cars to the track now, so that should lead to increase in points production. He struggled here last Summer, mainly because his team missed the setup in his car and finished poorly. Also his engine let go with just a few laps to go and he had to coast to an 26th-place finish. He came back in the fall and posted an 14th-place finish. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 91.3 driver rating. In additional to those solid numbers, he have finished 16th or better in 5 of the past 6 races at New Hampshire. The most likely outcome will likely be a finish between 12th-16th place though. Lately at New Hampshire in the summer time, he seems to run often somewhere in that area. He does have 3 Top 5 finishes since the 2010 season at New Hampshire (11-race span), but it should be noted all three top 5 finishes have came in the September race here though. I think JMac will be alright this weekend at New Hampshire. He been consistent all season long in the top 20 and been running much better of late. Minus the Sonoma and Daytona races (non-normal races I refer to them as), he have knocked off 2 Top 10 finishes at Michigan and Kentucky. I don't think he will finish top 10 again, but I defitnely see some top 15 or at worst top 20 potential with him.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is having a great season so far and is coming off his 4th win of the season, which includes back-to-back victories. He could very well go three-straight on Sunday afternoon. The driver of the No.2 car have been awesome at New Hampshire in the past and will be a contender this weekend. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled an series-best 5.5 average finish with 4.8 average running position (T-1st in the series with Harvick) and series-best 125.9 driver rating. All and all, Keselowski have been nearly flawless at this venue and seems to be one of the drivers to beat headed in the weekend. I think it also helps that he have an 5.0 average starting psoiton over the past 4 races at New Hampshire. I believe great pit selection and great track position is key at New Hampshire, and he have had both of those things lately at this place. Entering practice, I view him as one of the few favorites to win at New Hampshire. And with all of this momentum, he just might be the odds-on favorite to win.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon been pretty good all season so far and is one of the drivers who are in a position to make the chase by points. A few more solid runs from him could put him over the edge and into the safer zone. That needs to start this weekend at New Hampshire. I think Austin will be okay here, as he have a pretty decent track record. I wouldn't call his performances mind-blowing, but they have led to the results. So far in his career, he only have had one bad finish at this venue and that was last September of 22nd place. In 3 career starts at New Hampshire (minus last season's September race), he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 19.3 average running position and 76.6 driver rating. In that 3-race span, he only have spent 21% of the laps inside the top 15. That is very concerning. I think last season is more relevant, so let dig deeper into that data. He started 24th in that race, finished 8th, held 17.0 average running position and spent 45% of the laps inside the top 15. Passing is tough, so I under for the low in-race performance numbers but I would like to see an increase in those numbers. In the second race (September's race), he wasn't very competitive to my knowledge and really was a non-factor for a top 15 finish like he got in his previous three tries. In that race, he started 16th, finished 22nd, held career-low 61.1 driver rating for the event. And only spent about 11% of the race inside the top 15. This is a 300 mile race (300 laps), so he spent like 30 laps at most and that was probably by track position or something. Point being, you don't get numbers like that on accident. However it should be noted, he have ran pretty well this season on the short-flat tracks. He have compiled 14.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 83.6 driver rating. I think Dillon is going to be a low to middle teen driver this weekend with upside to sneak away with a top 10 finish.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is in my eyes the odds-on favorite to win at New Hampshire this weekend and it a surprise to me he haven't won at this place yet. He have been arguably the best driver at New Hampshire since joining the #4 team. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.3 average finish with 4.8 average running position (Tied for the best) and 119.7 driver rating (2nd-best). His in-race performance are very impressive overall, but he just haven't gotten the finishes to go along with it. Last September, he finished 21st place after dominating much of that race. However, he ran out of gas at end of the race. He led 216 of 300 laps for that race. Last July, he finished 3rd after starting from the 12th position. He led 59 laps on his way to that 3rd place result. He also finished 3rd in September 2014 as well. He led 104 of 300 laps on that day and held a race-high 133.3 driver rating. Him and Logano were the two drivers who dominated that race, I would say that Harvick was little better on that day though. In July 2014, Harvick was strong once again. He didn't lead any laps, but he was top 5 good all afternoon. He probably would've finished around 2nd or 3rd, if he didn't run out of gas on a Green-White-Checkers. Harvick also been very strong on the shorter-flats this season as well. He have compiled 3.0 average finish with 3.5 average running position and 130.9 driver rating. Harvick should be your fantasy radar this weekend, as I think he will be very strong. If he starts up front, then the competition probably should be worried!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is someone you should count on as a solid top 15 driver at New Hampshire, he have performed pretty well at New Hampshire in his Sprint Cup career. He also seems to be running in the low to middle teens more often than not lately. He been good at New Hampshire the last couple seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 84.8 driver rating. It should be noted that he have finished inside the top 20 in every July race at New Hampshire (4 races), since joining HMS in 2012. That is including 2 of the past 3 July races ending in 11th place. He finished 19th in last July's race, but he was better than that for much of the event. In that race, he started 9th, finished 19th and posted 85.0 driver rating and completed almost 65% of the race inside the top 15. Solely looking at the past 2 seasons at New Hampshire, he really only had one ''bad'' performance and that was in September 2014. It is his only race since joining HMS, where he have failed to be a top 15 contender. To further make a case for Kahne, he have been solid on the shorter-flats. He have compiled 13.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 89.2 driver rating. Headed into the weekend, I have Kahne pinned as a top 15 driver with the possibility of finishing inside the top 10 with some luck.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin have been the weak line of the JGR organization this season and I am not really surprised by that, but it becoming more concerning as the season wears on. While his teammates contend for wins, Hamlin is battling outside of the top 10 and it becoming a common thing as well. However, he have a solid track record at New Hampshire. This use to be one of his very best tracks on the schedule. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.3 average finish with 13.3 average running positon and 104.7 driver rating. Outside of his 37th place finish in September 2014, he have finished 14th or better in every start in that 4-race span. In fact, he have finished 4 of his past 5 races at New Hampshire in the top 14. If you fantasy format rewards lap lads, then he have led in 3 of the past 4 races. On top of that, he have been at his best on the shorter-flats this season. He have compiled 4.5 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 100.1 driver rating. I personally don't think Hamlin holds too much fantasy value, but I do think he is worth keeping an eye for future races at New Hampshire. If he runs well this weekend, maybe make a note for the second race? As of right now, he isn't on my fantasy radar. Unless he proves otherwise in practice.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr is having a solid season, but his fantasy value is starting to drop over recent races. After being a consistent driver for the first 14 races this season, he have finished 3 of the past 4 races outside of the top 25. He only had 4 finishes worse than 16th in the first 14 races. The problem is what without his consistency, Stenhouse doesn't hold any fantasy value in really any format. Headed into the season, I said that what will give him fantasy value and I think that holds true still. New Hampshire been a good track for him over the past couple seasons though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 19.5 average finish with 18.8 average running positon and 74.3 driver rating. If he take out last September's race, where he finished 39th. He has finishes of 13th, 17th and 9th over his past 3 races at New Hampshire. Sounds encouraging, right? Yeah his recent track history does (even if it a small sample-size). However I got some bad news for any of you Stenhouse's believers (talking to you, Garry). He have had no luck once so ever this season on the shorter-flats. As he have compiled 31.5 average finish with 22.0 average running position and 66.3 driver rating. In fact, he have had no luck all year on the tracks of 1-mile or less. He had poor finishes at Martinsville, Phoenix and Richmond. Had problems at Dover and Bristol, but got respectable finishes still. Point being, I am not sure if it wise to be playing with fire this weekend. I don't hate Ricky, but I am not exactly in love with him. After Kentucky, I think it might be to wait a couple weeks and see how the 17 performs.
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch is coming off a disappointing 12th-place at Kentucky Speedway, but he is officially out of his slump that last a couple races after his Kansas win in early May. I think Rowdy is returning to championship form and that means you should have him on your fantasy radar this weekend at New Hampshire. He will be a threat to win and should be a force to be reckon with. Kyle have been extremely strong at this venue in recent years. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 10.5 average running positon and 107.3 driver rating. Those numbers include an 37th-place finish last September, so as you can tell his numbers are a bit misleading. Prior to finishing poorly in the chase here last season, he have knocked off 5 straight Top 8 finishes. In fact, he have finished 1st or 2nd in 4 of those 5 races leading up to last season's poor finish. A driver like Kyle Busch rarely have back-to-back bad finishes at a racetrack. I fully expect him to be one of the drivers to beat. He been awesome this season on the shorter-flats as well. He have compiled 3.0 average finish with 3.5 average running positon and 123.1 driver rating. I have high hopes for Kyle and have penciled in as a top 5 driver.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off an 2nd-place at Kentucky Speedway, but a disappoint 2nd-place finish I might add. I thought for sure he was going to win, but Brad Keselowsi had other ideas. No worries, Carl should be primed for a win at New Hampshire. He have been very solid here recently. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 10.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 92.4 driver rating. Last season with JGR, he started on the pole in both New Hampshire races. He finished 5th and 7th place in those races, while leading 19 laps (ironically) both times. Overall, he have finished 4 of the past 6 races inside the top 10. But none of those races ended better than 5th place. Good news? His most recent finish is 5th place at New Hampshire. Edwards also been very stout this season on the shorter-flats. He have compiled 1.5 average finish, led the most laps (216), best-average running position (2.0), 2nd-most fast laps (108) and best-driver rating (135.9). Small simple-size, but nevertheless he have been very impressive. Be watching the driver of the No.19 car this weekend, as he will be a factor and someone you will likely have to beat to win!
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth, much like his JGR teammates will be one of the stronger competitors this weekend at New Hampshire. Kenseth have found a lot of success here over the years and only have gotten better in the No.20 car. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.0 average finish with 8.3 average running positon and 108.7 driver rating. You want to know how strong Matt Kenseth been at New Hampshire since joining JGR? Last July, he posted an 103.8 driver rating. In 6 starts that is his 2nd-worst driver rating in a race at New Hampshire. 2nd-worst folks! Overall, he have finished 5 of 6 races with JGR inside the top 9. In fact, he have won twice in the past 5 races here. 3 of those 5 races have ended inside the top 4. Kenseth have been very strong and just may be the best kept secret this week. As he been really good on the shorter-flat this season (see a trend with this and his JGR teammates?), he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 92.2 driver rating. Those are some pretty good numbers and they are the worst of the JGR drivers, which should tell you something how strong this organization been as a whole on this type of track. I have Matt Kenseth as a top 10 driver at least headed into practice.
21-Ryan Blaney: Ryan Blaney losing control of his car and taking out Chase Elliott with him, was probably the most rookie thing I seen in quite awhile. Not trying to bash him or anything, but kinda ironically the top two rookies were taking out like that. Anyways, I think he will be pretty good at New Hampshire this weekend. He didn't get a great finish in his debut last season here, as he finished 23rd. However, he was pretty competitive up to having to pit for loose wheel. After that, his race went south. I think he will be better this time around though. Blaney seems to run better at tracks that don't see a lot of fall-off at and New Hampshire is definitely a track that doesn't see a lot of fall-off. Well I feel good about Blaney this weekend, if he qualifies well I will probably like him even more. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a low to middle potential driver.
22-Joey Logano: Logano had a tough night at Kentucky Speedway last Saturday night, but I fully expect him to rebound strongly at New Hampshire. He have been a strong performer in the past here and been good as anyone over the past two seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 110.8 driver rating. He have finished 3rd or better in the past 3 New Hampshire races and easily been one of the best drivers. I would say he been the 2nd or 3rd best driver overall. His only bad finish over the past two seasons was in July 2014. In that event, he just took the lead when Morgan Shepherd misjudged Logano line and they crashed into each other. Logano and his Penske teammate Brad Keselowski have been running very strong lately, and I think they will both continue that this weekend. I have very high hopes for the 22 team to rebound back in a huge way this weekend at New Hampshire. I view him as a top 5 threat headed into practice.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott was one of the hottest drivers in the series before Sonoma and now have 3 straight finishes outside of the top 20. Including back-to-back finishes of 31st or worse. He is a rookie, so he will have his fair of bad races. On the plus side, Elliott have been running great all season long and would have finished well inside the top 10, if he didn't get wrecked at Kentucky. You can expect the No.24 car to be a contender this weekend for least a top 15 (and probably a top 10 finish too.) He also been a solid driver this season on the shorter-flats as well. He have compiled 10.0 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 89.0 driver rating. That is a small simple-size, but I think he will be able to back up those results though. Honestly, I look forward to how Elliott does this weekend at this place. Does he get back to finishing up front or stay in this mini-slump of finishes? We will find out soon I guess.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman keep on knocking off solid finish after solid finish in the No.31 car and finished a season-high 3rd place on Saturday night at Kentucky. Of course, fuel strategy was a main reason why he finished so high. But he was really good for that entire race and had some luck on his side as well. Newman overall have been the 6th-best driver in terms of average finish over the past 7 Sprint Cup races. With an 11.1 average finish and 15.1 average running position. That's pretty good, wouldn't you say? And New Hampshire have always been a great venue for Newman, I would say it one of his top 5 best racetracks. He have won here 3 times and have started on the pole 7 times in his Sprint Cup career and been very good of late in the No.31 car. Over the past 2 seasons (4 races), he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 15.0 average running positon and 86.0 driver rating. His last win was in 2011 here, but he have finished 11th or better in 3 of the past 4 races. Including finishes of 10th and 11th last season. Overall, he have finished 7 of his past 8 races in 18th or better. 5 of 8 have ended in 11th or better. Going back further, he have finished 9 of his past 13 inside the top 11. Newman simply been awesome here throughout his career. I think it would be hard to consider Newman anything worse than an top 12 or 14 fantasy option heading into practice. He is one of the safest bets this week and I fully expect to take advantage of that, too.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt is having a awesome season for SHR and is coming off an 4th-place finish at Kentucky, after finishing poorly at Daytona after the Logano thing on last lap. I wouldn't call New Hampshire as Kurt's worst track, but I definitely wouldn't call it his best track either though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 84.7 driver rating. Now he is better than those numbers show, but he have had a lot of misleading finishes. He was competitive in both races last season here, but only got finishes of 19th and 10th. His driver rating for both races were over 100.0. But facts remains, he only have 2 Top 10 in his past 11 races at New Hampshire. With his best finish of 10th place (twice). Before this slump of finishes, he knocked off 5 straight Top 6 finishes from June 2008 to June 2010. So not like Kurt cannot run well here, he can and proved he could last season. Now it is really about him going out and delivering the results. I think Kurt will be a top 10 threat this weekend, but I am not expecting anything beyond that though.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson wasn't really great at Kentucky, but I think that was more because he was amazingly awful on the long runs (as I predicted in the fantasy nascar update). However, that doesn't change the fact that he have not had a poor finish since Kansas back in early May. We are now in second week of July. I honestly can say this is his best stench of his cup career so far. He been somewhat bipolar at New Hampshire. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.3 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 84.8 drive rating. He finished 2nd and 3rd in his rookie season. He was really strong in both of those races and held 99.1 drive rating for both races, while leading 14 laps in his debut in July 2014. Then last season he had finishes of 31st and 17th. Honestly both of the Ganassi cars struggled last season at New Hampshire. The first race (in July), Larson was terrible and his pit road penalty, pretty much ended a discussion of a good finish. In the second race (in September), he struggled again in that race and finished 17th. And that finish isn't misleading either. That exactly where he ran for much of the afternoon. Right inside the top 20, not really moving too far forward overall. I cannot say that I love Larson this week, but as always Larson have unlimited upside as a fantasy option. I rather wait to see how practice goes before I make a call on him. If he brings a fast and qualify up front, then my opinion may opinion of him.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson have been in a slump for awhile now and cannot seem to finish a race. As he have only posted 2 Top 10 finishes over his past 11 races. In fact, he only have managed 5 Top 15 finishes in that 11-race span. To make things worse, he have finished outside of the top 30 in 3 of his past 5 races, dating back to Pocono. He started 9th or better in all three races. Ironically, he finished 16th and 13th at Michigan and Sonoma. While starting 15th and 16th in those races. Johnson have been pretty awesome here from a career point of view, he have mixed finishes over the past two seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.8 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 80.2 driver rating. He have two top 6 finishes over the past two seasons, but both of them have came in the September race. Over the past two July races here, he have finishes of 22nd and 42nd. Even though they are misleading finishes, but still doesn't change the fact that he have been inconsistent the past two seasons. With that said, he really haven't had many poor finishes at New Hampshire in his career. Over the past 18 races (dating back to 2007), he have finished 14 of those 18 in the top 10. Including 6 of his previous 8 inside the top 7. Johnson worries me a lot because how he have finished this season and his finishes in the July races lately don't exactly make me comfortable. Despite those factors, I think it is worth keeping Johnson on your fantasy radar. Even with him being in a slump, I think consider him as a top 10 fantasy pick and you should too.
78-Martin Truex Jr: My big fear in my fantasy update before Kentucky was Truex finding a way to blow a great finish. And well when I am right, I am right. This dude cannot find good finishes, even though 10th place isn't terrible. Still, he had the car to beat for much of that race and probably would've won, if he didn't have to pit and then charge through the field. I feel like that was a reason for him having to pit late in the race, he wasn't able to save any extra fuel. Onto the next one I guess for the 78 team. He should be good this weekend at New Hampshire, but I don't think he will dominate though. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 16.5 average running positon and 85.0 driver rating. Truex been a pretty consistent driver at New Hampshire for awhile. Over the 7 of the past 10 races at New Hampshire, he have finished 12th or better. Including 5 straight finishes of 12th or better as well. However, he have not finished better than 8th place in that span of races. In fact, you have to go all way back to his DEI's days in 2008 before you find a finish better than 8th. And that was 2008, when he finished 7th. Honestly, I wouldn't call Truex a favorite based off his numbers this season on the shorter-flats. As he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 90.0 driver rating. I say Phoenix is the most similar shorter-flat to New Hampshire and he wasn't major factor there. He had a car that mainly ran right around 10th or so place for much that race. He should be good this weekend, but based off the numbers I would say he is a 7th-12th place potential guy. He'll be much better on the intermediate tracks and that pretty much a promise.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr have been one of the most consistent drivers in the series over the past 3 or 4 seasons, but this season he seems off. That probably because this race package doesn't suit his driving style too well, but still I expected him to run better than he have this season. Sure, he have knocked off a couple strong finishes. But overall, he been a non-factor for the most part this season. But the shorter-flats have been good to him though. On the shorter-flats this season, he have compiled 9.0 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 105.2 driver rating. He was top 5 good at Phoenix earlier this season and led about 34 laps. Probably could've won that race, if there were more laps left. And he was also very good at Richmond, I remember him just chopping through the field on the long runs in that event in the early stages and finished like 13th. But he was better than the result showed. Dale also have been pretty good at New Hampshire as well. He have compiled 12.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 97.9 driver rating. Prior to finishing 25th last September, he had knocked off 5 Top 10 finishes in his previous 7 races. Including 7 straight Top 14 finishes. Including 4 straight Top 10 finishes. I don't hate Dale Jr this week by no means, but I would need to see something from him in practice before I really consider him. And that more to do with his up and down season than anything.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Preview -
1-JMac: JMac is coming off his best finish of the season (not named Talladega) and probably his best overall race as well. The Driver of the No.1 car was very good at Kentucky and should use that as momentum at New Hampshire. He use to be a short-flat track stud, but he have fallen off this season it seems. As he have struggled to produce the results on the short-flat tracks earlier in the season. But Gannasi is bringing better cars to the track now, so that should lead to increase in points production. He struggled here last Summer, mainly because his team missed the setup in his car and finished poorly. Also his engine let go with just a few laps to go and he had to coast to an 26th-place finish. He came back in the fall and posted an 14th-place finish. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.0 average finish with 11.3 average running position and 91.3 driver rating. In additional to those solid numbers, he have finished 16th or better in 5 of the past 6 races at New Hampshire. The most likely outcome will likely be a finish between 12th-16th place though. Lately at New Hampshire in the summer time, he seems to run often somewhere in that area. He does have 3 Top 5 finishes since the 2010 season at New Hampshire (11-race span), but it should be noted all three top 5 finishes have came in the September race here though. I think JMac will be alright this weekend at New Hampshire. He been consistent all season long in the top 20 and been running much better of late. Minus the Sonoma and Daytona races (non-normal races I refer to them as), he have knocked off 2 Top 10 finishes at Michigan and Kentucky. I don't think he will finish top 10 again, but I defitnely see some top 15 or at worst top 20 potential with him.
2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is having a great season so far and is coming off his 4th win of the season, which includes back-to-back victories. He could very well go three-straight on Sunday afternoon. The driver of the No.2 car have been awesome at New Hampshire in the past and will be a contender this weekend. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled an series-best 5.5 average finish with 4.8 average running position (T-1st in the series with Harvick) and series-best 125.9 driver rating. All and all, Keselowski have been nearly flawless at this venue and seems to be one of the drivers to beat headed in the weekend. I think it also helps that he have an 5.0 average starting psoiton over the past 4 races at New Hampshire. I believe great pit selection and great track position is key at New Hampshire, and he have had both of those things lately at this place. Entering practice, I view him as one of the few favorites to win at New Hampshire. And with all of this momentum, he just might be the odds-on favorite to win.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon been pretty good all season so far and is one of the drivers who are in a position to make the chase by points. A few more solid runs from him could put him over the edge and into the safer zone. That needs to start this weekend at New Hampshire. I think Austin will be okay here, as he have a pretty decent track record. I wouldn't call his performances mind-blowing, but they have led to the results. So far in his career, he only have had one bad finish at this venue and that was last September of 22nd place. In 3 career starts at New Hampshire (minus last season's September race), he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 19.3 average running position and 76.6 driver rating. In that 3-race span, he only have spent 21% of the laps inside the top 15. That is very concerning. I think last season is more relevant, so let dig deeper into that data. He started 24th in that race, finished 8th, held 17.0 average running position and spent 45% of the laps inside the top 15. Passing is tough, so I under for the low in-race performance numbers but I would like to see an increase in those numbers. In the second race (September's race), he wasn't very competitive to my knowledge and really was a non-factor for a top 15 finish like he got in his previous three tries. In that race, he started 16th, finished 22nd, held career-low 61.1 driver rating for the event. And only spent about 11% of the race inside the top 15. This is a 300 mile race (300 laps), so he spent like 30 laps at most and that was probably by track position or something. Point being, you don't get numbers like that on accident. However it should be noted, he have ran pretty well this season on the short-flat tracks. He have compiled 14.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 83.6 driver rating. I think Dillon is going to be a low to middle teen driver this weekend with upside to sneak away with a top 10 finish.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is in my eyes the odds-on favorite to win at New Hampshire this weekend and it a surprise to me he haven't won at this place yet. He have been arguably the best driver at New Hampshire since joining the #4 team. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 14.3 average finish with 4.8 average running position (Tied for the best) and 119.7 driver rating (2nd-best). His in-race performance are very impressive overall, but he just haven't gotten the finishes to go along with it. Last September, he finished 21st place after dominating much of that race. However, he ran out of gas at end of the race. He led 216 of 300 laps for that race. Last July, he finished 3rd after starting from the 12th position. He led 59 laps on his way to that 3rd place result. He also finished 3rd in September 2014 as well. He led 104 of 300 laps on that day and held a race-high 133.3 driver rating. Him and Logano were the two drivers who dominated that race, I would say that Harvick was little better on that day though. In July 2014, Harvick was strong once again. He didn't lead any laps, but he was top 5 good all afternoon. He probably would've finished around 2nd or 3rd, if he didn't run out of gas on a Green-White-Checkers. Harvick also been very strong on the shorter-flats this season as well. He have compiled 3.0 average finish with 3.5 average running position and 130.9 driver rating. Harvick should be your fantasy radar this weekend, as I think he will be very strong. If he starts up front, then the competition probably should be worried!
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is someone you should count on as a solid top 15 driver at New Hampshire, he have performed pretty well at New Hampshire in his Sprint Cup career. He also seems to be running in the low to middle teens more often than not lately. He been good at New Hampshire the last couple seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.5 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 84.8 driver rating. It should be noted that he have finished inside the top 20 in every July race at New Hampshire (4 races), since joining HMS in 2012. That is including 2 of the past 3 July races ending in 11th place. He finished 19th in last July's race, but he was better than that for much of the event. In that race, he started 9th, finished 19th and posted 85.0 driver rating and completed almost 65% of the race inside the top 15. Solely looking at the past 2 seasons at New Hampshire, he really only had one ''bad'' performance and that was in September 2014. It is his only race since joining HMS, where he have failed to be a top 15 contender. To further make a case for Kahne, he have been solid on the shorter-flats. He have compiled 13.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 89.2 driver rating. Headed into the weekend, I have Kahne pinned as a top 15 driver with the possibility of finishing inside the top 10 with some luck.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin have been the weak line of the JGR organization this season and I am not really surprised by that, but it becoming more concerning as the season wears on. While his teammates contend for wins, Hamlin is battling outside of the top 10 and it becoming a common thing as well. However, he have a solid track record at New Hampshire. This use to be one of his very best tracks on the schedule. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 15.3 average finish with 13.3 average running positon and 104.7 driver rating. Outside of his 37th place finish in September 2014, he have finished 14th or better in every start in that 4-race span. In fact, he have finished 4 of his past 5 races at New Hampshire in the top 14. If you fantasy format rewards lap lads, then he have led in 3 of the past 4 races. On top of that, he have been at his best on the shorter-flats this season. He have compiled 4.5 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 100.1 driver rating. I personally don't think Hamlin holds too much fantasy value, but I do think he is worth keeping an eye for future races at New Hampshire. If he runs well this weekend, maybe make a note for the second race? As of right now, he isn't on my fantasy radar. Unless he proves otherwise in practice.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Stenhouse Jr is having a solid season, but his fantasy value is starting to drop over recent races. After being a consistent driver for the first 14 races this season, he have finished 3 of the past 4 races outside of the top 25. He only had 4 finishes worse than 16th in the first 14 races. The problem is what without his consistency, Stenhouse doesn't hold any fantasy value in really any format. Headed into the season, I said that what will give him fantasy value and I think that holds true still. New Hampshire been a good track for him over the past couple seasons though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 19.5 average finish with 18.8 average running positon and 74.3 driver rating. If he take out last September's race, where he finished 39th. He has finishes of 13th, 17th and 9th over his past 3 races at New Hampshire. Sounds encouraging, right? Yeah his recent track history does (even if it a small sample-size). However I got some bad news for any of you Stenhouse's believers (talking to you, Garry). He have had no luck once so ever this season on the shorter-flats. As he have compiled 31.5 average finish with 22.0 average running position and 66.3 driver rating. In fact, he have had no luck all year on the tracks of 1-mile or less. He had poor finishes at Martinsville, Phoenix and Richmond. Had problems at Dover and Bristol, but got respectable finishes still. Point being, I am not sure if it wise to be playing with fire this weekend. I don't hate Ricky, but I am not exactly in love with him. After Kentucky, I think it might be to wait a couple weeks and see how the 17 performs.
18-Kyle Busch: Kyle Busch is coming off a disappointing 12th-place at Kentucky Speedway, but he is officially out of his slump that last a couple races after his Kansas win in early May. I think Rowdy is returning to championship form and that means you should have him on your fantasy radar this weekend at New Hampshire. He will be a threat to win and should be a force to be reckon with. Kyle have been extremely strong at this venue in recent years. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 10.5 average running positon and 107.3 driver rating. Those numbers include an 37th-place finish last September, so as you can tell his numbers are a bit misleading. Prior to finishing poorly in the chase here last season, he have knocked off 5 straight Top 8 finishes. In fact, he have finished 1st or 2nd in 4 of those 5 races leading up to last season's poor finish. A driver like Kyle Busch rarely have back-to-back bad finishes at a racetrack. I fully expect him to be one of the drivers to beat. He been awesome this season on the shorter-flats as well. He have compiled 3.0 average finish with 3.5 average running positon and 123.1 driver rating. I have high hopes for Kyle and have penciled in as a top 5 driver.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards is coming off an 2nd-place at Kentucky Speedway, but a disappoint 2nd-place finish I might add. I thought for sure he was going to win, but Brad Keselowsi had other ideas. No worries, Carl should be primed for a win at New Hampshire. He have been very solid here recently. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 10.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 92.4 driver rating. Last season with JGR, he started on the pole in both New Hampshire races. He finished 5th and 7th place in those races, while leading 19 laps (ironically) both times. Overall, he have finished 4 of the past 6 races inside the top 10. But none of those races ended better than 5th place. Good news? His most recent finish is 5th place at New Hampshire. Edwards also been very stout this season on the shorter-flats. He have compiled 1.5 average finish, led the most laps (216), best-average running position (2.0), 2nd-most fast laps (108) and best-driver rating (135.9). Small simple-size, but nevertheless he have been very impressive. Be watching the driver of the No.19 car this weekend, as he will be a factor and someone you will likely have to beat to win!
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth, much like his JGR teammates will be one of the stronger competitors this weekend at New Hampshire. Kenseth have found a lot of success here over the years and only have gotten better in the No.20 car. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 8.0 average finish with 8.3 average running positon and 108.7 driver rating. You want to know how strong Matt Kenseth been at New Hampshire since joining JGR? Last July, he posted an 103.8 driver rating. In 6 starts that is his 2nd-worst driver rating in a race at New Hampshire. 2nd-worst folks! Overall, he have finished 5 of 6 races with JGR inside the top 9. In fact, he have won twice in the past 5 races here. 3 of those 5 races have ended inside the top 4. Kenseth have been very strong and just may be the best kept secret this week. As he been really good on the shorter-flat this season (see a trend with this and his JGR teammates?), he have compiled 7.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 92.2 driver rating. Those are some pretty good numbers and they are the worst of the JGR drivers, which should tell you something how strong this organization been as a whole on this type of track. I have Matt Kenseth as a top 10 driver at least headed into practice.
21-Ryan Blaney: Ryan Blaney losing control of his car and taking out Chase Elliott with him, was probably the most rookie thing I seen in quite awhile. Not trying to bash him or anything, but kinda ironically the top two rookies were taking out like that. Anyways, I think he will be pretty good at New Hampshire this weekend. He didn't get a great finish in his debut last season here, as he finished 23rd. However, he was pretty competitive up to having to pit for loose wheel. After that, his race went south. I think he will be better this time around though. Blaney seems to run better at tracks that don't see a lot of fall-off at and New Hampshire is definitely a track that doesn't see a lot of fall-off. Well I feel good about Blaney this weekend, if he qualifies well I will probably like him even more. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a low to middle potential driver.
22-Joey Logano: Logano had a tough night at Kentucky Speedway last Saturday night, but I fully expect him to rebound strongly at New Hampshire. He have been a strong performer in the past here and been good as anyone over the past two seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 12.0 average finish with 8.3 average running position and 110.8 driver rating. He have finished 3rd or better in the past 3 New Hampshire races and easily been one of the best drivers. I would say he been the 2nd or 3rd best driver overall. His only bad finish over the past two seasons was in July 2014. In that event, he just took the lead when Morgan Shepherd misjudged Logano line and they crashed into each other. Logano and his Penske teammate Brad Keselowski have been running very strong lately, and I think they will both continue that this weekend. I have very high hopes for the 22 team to rebound back in a huge way this weekend at New Hampshire. I view him as a top 5 threat headed into practice.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott was one of the hottest drivers in the series before Sonoma and now have 3 straight finishes outside of the top 20. Including back-to-back finishes of 31st or worse. He is a rookie, so he will have his fair of bad races. On the plus side, Elliott have been running great all season long and would have finished well inside the top 10, if he didn't get wrecked at Kentucky. You can expect the No.24 car to be a contender this weekend for least a top 15 (and probably a top 10 finish too.) He also been a solid driver this season on the shorter-flats as well. He have compiled 10.0 average finish with 13.5 average running position and 89.0 driver rating. That is a small simple-size, but I think he will be able to back up those results though. Honestly, I look forward to how Elliott does this weekend at this place. Does he get back to finishing up front or stay in this mini-slump of finishes? We will find out soon I guess.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman keep on knocking off solid finish after solid finish in the No.31 car and finished a season-high 3rd place on Saturday night at Kentucky. Of course, fuel strategy was a main reason why he finished so high. But he was really good for that entire race and had some luck on his side as well. Newman overall have been the 6th-best driver in terms of average finish over the past 7 Sprint Cup races. With an 11.1 average finish and 15.1 average running position. That's pretty good, wouldn't you say? And New Hampshire have always been a great venue for Newman, I would say it one of his top 5 best racetracks. He have won here 3 times and have started on the pole 7 times in his Sprint Cup career and been very good of late in the No.31 car. Over the past 2 seasons (4 races), he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 15.0 average running positon and 86.0 driver rating. His last win was in 2011 here, but he have finished 11th or better in 3 of the past 4 races. Including finishes of 10th and 11th last season. Overall, he have finished 7 of his past 8 races in 18th or better. 5 of 8 have ended in 11th or better. Going back further, he have finished 9 of his past 13 inside the top 11. Newman simply been awesome here throughout his career. I think it would be hard to consider Newman anything worse than an top 12 or 14 fantasy option heading into practice. He is one of the safest bets this week and I fully expect to take advantage of that, too.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt is having a awesome season for SHR and is coming off an 4th-place finish at Kentucky, after finishing poorly at Daytona after the Logano thing on last lap. I wouldn't call New Hampshire as Kurt's worst track, but I definitely wouldn't call it his best track either though. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 20.5 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 84.7 driver rating. Now he is better than those numbers show, but he have had a lot of misleading finishes. He was competitive in both races last season here, but only got finishes of 19th and 10th. His driver rating for both races were over 100.0. But facts remains, he only have 2 Top 10 in his past 11 races at New Hampshire. With his best finish of 10th place (twice). Before this slump of finishes, he knocked off 5 straight Top 6 finishes from June 2008 to June 2010. So not like Kurt cannot run well here, he can and proved he could last season. Now it is really about him going out and delivering the results. I think Kurt will be a top 10 threat this weekend, but I am not expecting anything beyond that though.
42-Kyle Larson: Larson wasn't really great at Kentucky, but I think that was more because he was amazingly awful on the long runs (as I predicted in the fantasy nascar update). However, that doesn't change the fact that he have not had a poor finish since Kansas back in early May. We are now in second week of July. I honestly can say this is his best stench of his cup career so far. He been somewhat bipolar at New Hampshire. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 13.3 average finish with 17.0 average running position and 84.8 drive rating. He finished 2nd and 3rd in his rookie season. He was really strong in both of those races and held 99.1 drive rating for both races, while leading 14 laps in his debut in July 2014. Then last season he had finishes of 31st and 17th. Honestly both of the Ganassi cars struggled last season at New Hampshire. The first race (in July), Larson was terrible and his pit road penalty, pretty much ended a discussion of a good finish. In the second race (in September), he struggled again in that race and finished 17th. And that finish isn't misleading either. That exactly where he ran for much of the afternoon. Right inside the top 20, not really moving too far forward overall. I cannot say that I love Larson this week, but as always Larson have unlimited upside as a fantasy option. I rather wait to see how practice goes before I make a call on him. If he brings a fast and qualify up front, then my opinion may opinion of him.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson have been in a slump for awhile now and cannot seem to finish a race. As he have only posted 2 Top 10 finishes over his past 11 races. In fact, he only have managed 5 Top 15 finishes in that 11-race span. To make things worse, he have finished outside of the top 30 in 3 of his past 5 races, dating back to Pocono. He started 9th or better in all three races. Ironically, he finished 16th and 13th at Michigan and Sonoma. While starting 15th and 16th in those races. Johnson have been pretty awesome here from a career point of view, he have mixed finishes over the past two seasons. Over the past 4 races here, he have compiled 18.8 average finish with 19.5 average running position and 80.2 driver rating. He have two top 6 finishes over the past two seasons, but both of them have came in the September race. Over the past two July races here, he have finishes of 22nd and 42nd. Even though they are misleading finishes, but still doesn't change the fact that he have been inconsistent the past two seasons. With that said, he really haven't had many poor finishes at New Hampshire in his career. Over the past 18 races (dating back to 2007), he have finished 14 of those 18 in the top 10. Including 6 of his previous 8 inside the top 7. Johnson worries me a lot because how he have finished this season and his finishes in the July races lately don't exactly make me comfortable. Despite those factors, I think it is worth keeping Johnson on your fantasy radar. Even with him being in a slump, I think consider him as a top 10 fantasy pick and you should too.
78-Martin Truex Jr: My big fear in my fantasy update before Kentucky was Truex finding a way to blow a great finish. And well when I am right, I am right. This dude cannot find good finishes, even though 10th place isn't terrible. Still, he had the car to beat for much of that race and probably would've won, if he didn't have to pit and then charge through the field. I feel like that was a reason for him having to pit late in the race, he wasn't able to save any extra fuel. Onto the next one I guess for the 78 team. He should be good this weekend at New Hampshire, but I don't think he will dominate though. Over the past 4 races at New Hampshire, he have compiled 11.0 average finish with 16.5 average running positon and 85.0 driver rating. Truex been a pretty consistent driver at New Hampshire for awhile. Over the 7 of the past 10 races at New Hampshire, he have finished 12th or better. Including 5 straight finishes of 12th or better as well. However, he have not finished better than 8th place in that span of races. In fact, you have to go all way back to his DEI's days in 2008 before you find a finish better than 8th. And that was 2008, when he finished 7th. Honestly, I wouldn't call Truex a favorite based off his numbers this season on the shorter-flats. As he have compiled 11.5 average finish with 11.5 average running position and 90.0 driver rating. I say Phoenix is the most similar shorter-flat to New Hampshire and he wasn't major factor there. He had a car that mainly ran right around 10th or so place for much that race. He should be good this weekend, but based off the numbers I would say he is a 7th-12th place potential guy. He'll be much better on the intermediate tracks and that pretty much a promise.
88-Dale Jr: Dale Jr have been one of the most consistent drivers in the series over the past 3 or 4 seasons, but this season he seems off. That probably because this race package doesn't suit his driving style too well, but still I expected him to run better than he have this season. Sure, he have knocked off a couple strong finishes. But overall, he been a non-factor for the most part this season. But the shorter-flats have been good to him though. On the shorter-flats this season, he have compiled 9.0 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 105.2 driver rating. He was top 5 good at Phoenix earlier this season and led about 34 laps. Probably could've won that race, if there were more laps left. And he was also very good at Richmond, I remember him just chopping through the field on the long runs in that event in the early stages and finished like 13th. But he was better than the result showed. Dale also have been pretty good at New Hampshire as well. He have compiled 12.3 average finish with 10.0 average running position and 97.9 driver rating. Prior to finishing 25th last September, he had knocked off 5 Top 10 finishes in his previous 7 races. Including 7 straight Top 14 finishes. Including 4 straight Top 10 finishes. I don't hate Dale Jr this week by no means, but I would need to see something from him in practice before I really consider him. And that more to do with his up and down season than anything.
**All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
