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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: The Ganassi cars as a whole looked pretty good at Indy, but Larson is the one that people will remember because he was the up more at the front. But let's not discredit JMac, because he had a solid run going before getting into the wall late in the race. He also wasn't too bad earlier this season at Pocono. He ran top 15 for most of the day and eventually finished 17th. He held 15.0 average running positon and but spent nearly 70% of the race inside the top 15. So not like he ran poorly at all, he just didn't get the finish he deserved in the end though. He been very consistent here at Pocono for awhile now. Over the past 5 Pocono races, he have compiled 11.2 average finish with 13.6 average running position and 86.8 driver rating. Over that 5 race-span, he have finished 17th or better in every race and have finished 4 of those races inside the top 15. In fact, he have finished 9 straight races at Pocono inside the top 17. If we look deeper into the data pool, he have finished 3 of the past 5 races here inside the top 10. With the Ganassi cars looking more improved than they were a couple months ago, I could see an top 10 finish out of JMac. But I think his finish range is more likely in the lower teens though.
2-Brad Keselowski: For the second straight week, Keselowski get an poor finish after contending up front for much of the race. And for the second race, it was because of a late race incident as well. So, he will try to turn things around at Pocono. A track that have been very good to him in the past. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 9.4 average finish with 11.8 average running positon and 100.6 driver rating. Keselowski was able to finish 3rd, despite being forced off-sequence early in the event. He started on the pole in June and had the right strategy in place late in the race, but he just didn't have enough time to get to the lead though. He have finished 4 of the past 6 races at this track inside the top 6. In fact, he have finished 3 of the past 5 Pocono races inside the top 3. Keselowski also have led in 4 of the past 5 Sprint Cup races this season. Headed into practice this week, Keselowski have to be a top 5 guy based on how he have performed on this type of track and how much speed he have shown this season (especially recently).
3-Austin Dillon: I believe Austin Dillon's top 10 run at Indy have put him in the green for making the chase. I wouldn't call him safe yet, but unless he has a major meltdown then he should be fairly safe bet to be in. However, I bet he would like to revenge his finish from earlier this season at Pocono. Prior to wrecking at Pocono earlier this season, he have been very success at this racetrack overall. In 4 career starts at this track, he have compiled 20.2 average finish with 18.4 average running positon and 73.9 driver rating. Of course that is including his 37th place finish from earlier this season (as I mentioned he wrecked in that race). Without that his numbers look like this: 16.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, he posted an 16.0 average finish with 14.5 average running position. He had his best Pocono race of his career, last August under Slugger (his crew chief). He finished 13th in that event after starting from the 4th starting position. He held a career-best 91.4 driver rating, which pretty tells me he didn't luck into that 13th place finish either. I point out last season races, because they are most relevant since data from earlier this season is basically invalid. Dillon is probably a top 15 or so driver headed into practice with possible top 10/top 12 upside. I will definitely be watching him in practice this weekend.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is coming off a very strong Indy race, where he really wasn't a major factor by his standards. However from a pure performance standpoint in general, he was very good. But honestly, he was the best driver not in the Joe Gibbs Racing stable. He should be a factor at Pocono this weekend. Earlier this season in June, he wasn't bad but he had to overcome a couple of issues to finish 9th. He had a better car than that, but things just didn't line up for him on that day. Over the past 5 races at Pocono, he have compiled 13.8 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 102.3 driver rating. He have finished 3 of the past 4 races here inside the top 9, including a pair of 2nd place finishes last season. He also have a pair of finishes outside of the top 10 though, but both of those instances have been bad luck. If your fantasy format rewards lead lap, then you should know that he have led in 4 straight races at Pocono. There is definitely a lot to like about his recent track history here. His momentum headed into this race might be just as good. He is coming off back-to-back top 6 finishes at New Hampshire and Indy. In fact, over the past 8 Sprint Cup races he have finished 5 of 8 inside the top 6. Including 7 of 8 overall inside the top 9. Harvick have been a top 10 machine this season with 16 Top 10 finishes in 20 races. 2 of the 4 races, he didn't finish inside the top 10 was at Talladega and Daytona. Hard to argue with Harvick as a top fantasy pick this weekend.
5-Kasey Kahne: Despite finishing many spots ahead of fellow bubble drivers Ryan Blaney and Trevor Bayne, he is further behind for the final chase spot than he was previously. But that is a big thanks to Kyle Larson's top 5 finish though. All is not lost for him, he can gain ground with a solid effort this weekend. Honestly at the moment, I think Hendrick is pretty far behind the Gibbs cars (and even the Penske cars). With that being said, I think Kahne can very well be a top 15 driver this weekend. He been okay recently at this racetrack. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 22.8 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 77.7 driver rating. Overall, Kahne been hit or miss since joining HMS at Pocono. In 9 races, he have posted 5 Top 15 finishes and 4 finishes outside of the top 25. In fact, all 4 of those finishes have ended 29th or worse. On the plus side, he have turned things around lately. Over the past 4 Pocono races, he have finished 3 of 4 inside the top 13. Overall, he has mustered 4 Top 13 finishes over his past 6 races here. Kahne is running better than he was earlier in the year, but still there something off about this 5 team. Other than a couple races this season, he have not been better than a low to middle teen performer. I personally doubt he suddenly breaks out of his shell and exceed my expectations. Headed into the weekend, I don't think he finishes better than the lower teens, which is about 13th-15th place.
11-Denny Hamlin: Remember last season when Denny Hamlin got off to that terrible start and then become was one of the best drivers in the series in second half of the season. Not to make any bold predictions, but it may not be crazy to think that he can repeat something similar this season. It early still, but Hamlin starting to gain momentum and coming off his best two races of the season (in my opinion). Now he goes to Pocono, a place that he is multiple-time winner at. I consider him to be his playground back before the 2013 season. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.8 average finish with 10.4 average running position and 96.2 driver rating. He have finished 4 of the past 5 races inside the top 14. Including 3 Top 10 finishes in that 5 race span. Not nearly as impressive as I would like, but there is a couple things to really like about him that most fantasy players might not consider. Firstly, Hamlin is very good at Pocono in general. He haven't been the dominating driver that he was from 2009 to 2012, but I think that Hamlin could somewhat resurface. Also like that Joe Gibbs Racing have had the field covered lately. Their dominances at Indy says a lot about how strong their cars are. Hamlin also is starting to come around (maybe) and he been rock solid on the flats this season. Hamlin have posted 9 Top 10 finishes this season and 4 of those 9 Top 10 finishes have came on flat racetracks (Richmond, New Hampshire, Phoenix and Indy). Obvious only Pocono and Indy are the only large flats, but you get my point though.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Ricky have been bad at the larger flats in his cup career so far, but he has finishes of 12th and 15th this season at Indy and Pocono. Yeah, we all saw that coming! In fact, Ricky is starting build some nice momentum headed into Pocono. He finishes of 5th (Daytona), 10th (New Hampshire) and 12th (Indy) over his past 4 races. Want to go deeper into the data pool? He has 7 Top 15 finishes over his past 10 Sprint Cup races. His season numbers overall don't show how underrated he been. I am not even going to go into his career stats at Pocono, because in my opinion they are invalid. Mainly because how poorly RFR have ran over the past couple seasons. It seems like this organization is finally on the right track to success. I think Stenhouse is all but eliminated from making the chase on points. But don't think for a minute that he won't keep racking up top 15 finishes. As unlikely as it seemed headed into the season, there a good possibility that Ricky Stenhouse Jr could sweep the top 15 on the large flats in 2016. Crazy to think, when you looked at his numbers before the season started.
18-Kyle Busch: I knew it was only matter of time before Kyle Busch rolled back into victory lane and it not an accident that Joe Gibbs Racing is back to running lights-out dominant. When Rowdy struggled there for that rough stench, I felt like JGR was missing something (to certain extent). Maybe they were trying out some things? Who knows and who cares really with the way they are preforming right now. I think JGR will be tough to beat this week at Pocono and Kyle should be leading the charge once again. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 23.0 average finish with 16.4 average running position and 82.4 driver rating. Those numbers aren't great, but to be fair he have had a lot of bad luck. Earlier this season, he was top 10 good for the event but got wrecked by Ryan Newman. However, I believe it was triggered by Kasey Kahne if I remember correctly though. Last August race's was nuts and probably the most stupid fuel mileage race I ever have seen. Rowdy was running second to Joey Logano, but ran out of fuel on the final few laps and ended up 21st. In August 2013, he only completed 23 laps before his engine let go and finished 43rd. Otherwise, Kyle been pretty good. He have finished 12th or better in last four races with finishes of 9th (June 2015), 12th (June 2014), 8th (August 2013) and 6th (June 2013). If Rowdy can have luck on his side, then he will be a major threat to win this weekend. With the way JGR is running, I think he have to consider him one of the favorites headed into the weekend.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards have ran quite well the past two weeks, but he have finished poorly in both of those races. I would say last week at Indy, hurt a lot more since he was so strong for most of the event prior to be wrecked. Edwards and the JGR cars have been studs on the flats this season. Honestly, I wouldn't expect any thing different this week either. Edwards been very solid at Pocono recently, too. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 20.6 average finish with 13.4 average running position and 87.4 driver rating. In three career starts with JGR, he has finishes of 8th, 10th and 15th so far. He enters the weekend with back-to-back top 10 finishes at Pocono in the #19 car. Earlier this season, I thought he was top 10 good for the event but he never contended like I expected him to though. However, I think that changes this weekend. JGR wasn't overly strong in that race. They did led some laps, but not like they have the past couple weeks. I think it was during that short stench of races where the Gibbs cars seemed to have lost the competitive edge they have right now. So yeah, I believe Edwards will have a better performance this time around. With that being said, I am concerned about Edwards because he haven't had any luck the past two races. In fact, he have finished 20th or worse in 3 of the past 4 races now. While that is somewhat worrisome, we cannot predict races so, if he is fast then I will have in my fantasy lineups.
20-Matt Kenseth: Matt Kenseth is running awesome right now and not enough people are even noticing it quite frankly. Sounds crazy, but it kinda true. But with the way Kyle Busch have been running this season, I can see why though. Kenseth now have won at New Hampshire and came to Indy and finished 2nd place. He on a 3-race top 8 streak currently and very well could make it 4 straight this week at Pocono. For years, I didn't consider this a ''Matt Kenseth'' track but my tune have changed the last couple races. He have been awesome here and is pretty underrated in my opinion over the past 2 seasons. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.4 average finish with 14.4 average running positon and 92.5 driver rating. The past two races here, Kenseth have been really strong overall and been a top 5 performer. Last August, he went to victory lane after outsmarting the competition by saving enough of fuel to cross the finish line. He came back earlier this season and led 31 laps to an 7th place finish. He much better than that though, as he probably had the car to beat in the latter stages until he faded after the final restart. Kenseth will be under the radar and honestly he may be the best kept secret because he doesn't have standout stats.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney once again have another bad day and it probably will take a win for him to make the chase. Unrealistically he could make it on points, but he cannot have anymore bad finishes. That will be difficult to go the next 5-6 races without making a rookie mistake. Regardless, the 21 team have been performing well all season long and it not like he haven't had speed. If he can overcome this recent bad luck then he can finish top 15 every single week. Earlier this season at Pocono, he was top 15 strong for much of the event and finished 10th place. Headed into the weekend, I would say that Blaney is a low to middle teen driver with potential to sneak away with rough a top 10 finish.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is having a pretty good season so far and seems to be coming on stronger as the Penske cars are catching up to the Gibbs cars. A month ago, I thought Penske have caught the Gibbs bunch. But now they are behind again, but Logano have proven in recent weeks he can be a very effective fantasy option regardless. He been a stud here at Pocono! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 14.4 average finish with 9.4 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. Logano have been amazing at Pocono since joining Penske. In 7 races in the #22 car, he have posted 5 Top 10 finishes. With 3 Top 5 finishes over his past 4 races at this racetrack. However, it should be 6 straight top 5 finishes though. Last August, he was dominated and led 97 laps but he ran out of fuel with a few laps to go. In June 2014, he finished very poorly because of an blown engine late in the race. He was running top 5 when it let go. Logano and the 22 team will be someone you have to beat this weekend, in order to go to victory lane. He is also an former winner at this racetrack, but never with Penske. I bet that is eating at this 22 team, especially after being some close in last season's event.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott is coming off an disappointing 15th finish at Indy. He was running top 10 on the final lap, but got Truex Jr pushed him into the grass that cost him several spots. Still a solid day for him, considering he ran outside of the top 20 for much of that race. So now he returns to Pocono Raceway where he put on a clinic earlier this season and many (including myself) thought he had a great shot to win before the final restart. Elliott finished 4th back in June, after leading a race-high 51 laps. He have definitely cooled off with his finishes, but it only take one great finish for Elliott to breakout and go on another streak. I think he will be awesome this weekend, but will he back up his performance from June? I honestly don't know. I think he will definitely know more after practice and qualifying.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman had a very rough day at Indy. He ran top 15 all day (that is very Ryan Newman-like), but then ran into Carl Edwards and got some damage. His team fixed him up and kept him on the lead lap. That's good, right? Yes, but then JMac happened and that pretty much ended any reasonable chance for him to get a top 20 finish. Luckily for Newman, he is a consistent teen finisher and doesn't typically have back-to-back bad finishes. I would be very shocked if that happened actually. And he loves Pocono and Pocono loves him right back. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 17.8 average finish with 16.6 average running position and 77.7 driver rating. Not overly great numbers, but he been consistent here for many years though. He just had two poor finishes here in 2015 that hurts his recent stats. If we look at the past 16 races at Pocono, Newman have posted 14 Top 14 finishes. His only two finishes outside of the top 14 was in both races last season. Overall, he has finished 12th or better in 10 of past 12 races. Including an 12th place finish here earlier this season in June. Newman is a very safe bet for this weekend and should be considered one of the best choices if you looking a solid top 10 or top 12 pick.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is officially in a slump of finishing 3 of the past 4 races outside of the top 10, in a season that he only finished worse than 10th only one time in the first 16 races. He now turns his attention back to one of his best tracks on the schedule. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.8 average finish with 10.6 average running positon and 113.8 driver rating. Busch have been awesome here in that 5-race span, the overall numbers don't quite show how good he have been. As, he has 9 top 10 finishes over his past 13 races at Pocono. Over the past 7 races here, he have post 5 Top 7 finishes. Digging deeper into the data pool, he have posted 4 Top 5 finishes, including 3 Top 3 finishes in the past 6 races at this racetrack. Just because I want to drill my point home, over his past 10 Pocono races he have finished 5th or better in 6 of 10 races. Kurt is the man here and won in June earlier this season. Add-in his consistency this season and you get an very powerful fantasy option. I honestly don't know if there is a better racetrack to use Kurt Busch at. Maybe Cali, but that was way back in March so it isn't an option anymore. So if you are planning to use Kurt at all this season, then I would have him on my fantasy radar this week and into the weekend.
42-Kyle Larson: Not many people realize it, but Kyle Larson is having a fantastic summer stench of races. Over the past 9 Sprint Cup races, he have posted 7 Top 13 finishes. Including 3 Top 5 finishes in that span. Pretty good for team like Chip Ganassi Racing who have struggled in seasons prior to generate speed. But Larson seems to be hitting his stride as he hits the meat of his schedule. The next four races are all very good tracks for him, starting with Pocono. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 9.4 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 91.6 driver rating. He have never finished worse than 12th place at this track. Earlier this season, he finished 11th place and was decent overall. He led a few laps early in the event, which meant he was off-sequence until an caution got him caught back up. I say he had top 12 or 14 car overall. Larson also ran very well last week and quite frankly I wasn't expect him to be top 10 good at Indy. But he was and that should probably translate to Pocono. Also his performances at Pocono so far in his career needs to be notable. In career starts, he have posted an driver rating above 95.0 three times already. I would consider June's race as his worst race by far at Pocono, but his performance numbers aren't valid because how that race played out. Larson is definitely someone to keep on your radar. Headed into the race, I have him close to being at top 10 driver.
48-Jimmie Johnson: I predicted that Johnson would have a breakout race at Indy and he delivered (love when drivers make me look smart)! By doing so, he was able to snap a 6-race top 10-less streak on the season and will look to keep the momentum going at Pocono. Johnson was once very dominant at this track, but I think HMS is quite a bit behind the competition (Gibbs/Penske) right now. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 17.8 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 95.5 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he been top 6 or bust really. He has 3 Top 6 finishes and two races where he finished 35th and 39th. On the downside, he had finished outside of the top 10 the past 3 of 4 races at Pocono. However, he did finish 6th place in last season's race. Despite all of that, this have been a great racetrack for the 48 in the past and I think it definitely possible that he can return to being a solid top 5 to 7 fantasy option. He is on my fantasy radar headed into practice this weekend.
78-Martin Truex Jr: I had higher for hopes for Truex at Indy, but an 8th place finish wasn't bad either though. Of the Toyotas, I would say that Truex was the slowest (he probably had the 5th or 6th best car overall) at Indy. However, I think he will be more of a factor at Pocono. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 16.0 average finish with 14.6 average running position and 92.2 driver rating. He has only two top 10 finishes over that 5-race span, however he have had a lot of bad luck overall. Earlier this season (in June), he finished 19th and probably had one of his worst races of the season by his performance. With only 61.3 driver rating and 23.0 average running position with only spending 11% of the race inside the top 15. Those are very terrible numbers, so why was he so bad? Well, let's just say that Pocono the first time around was nothing but bad luck for the 78 team. He was close to the top 10 when he got into the 83 car which caused him to make multiple pit stops under caution to repair the damage. Then he had a couple flat tires which further made his day frustration. Overall, it was a day to forget for Truex. Last August, he was once again very good. He was 3rd or 4th place until he ran out of fuel and finished 19th place. He won here in June 2015 after leading 97 laps. I think with the way the JGR cars are running, you have to consider Truex being just slightly behind them. If the Gibbs bunch look good in practice, then I can pretty much guess that Truex will be right there as well. I have Truex pinned as a top 10 driver headed into the weekend.
88-Jeff Gordon: In the fantasy Nascar update on Saturday, I said that Gordon wouldn't be nothing more than a low-teen finisher and he finished 13th place. I was pretty spot on about that and I expect him to be even better at Pocono. For a couple reasons actually, too. Firstly, the 88 team been nothing short of amazing when setting up the cars at Pocono when Dale Jr been in the car. Also Gordon now have more experience with this race package and it shown at Indy as the race progress. The more time Gordon was behind the wheel, the better he got in my opinion. And it sounds like Gordon may be behind the wheel for awhile. Especially with the rumors that Dale Jr could miss Watkin Glenn as well. Gordon haven't been rumored to run that race yet, but I am willing to bet he does though. Gordon is a low to middle driver once again, but I will give him a higher ceiling this week though.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: The Ganassi cars as a whole looked pretty good at Indy, but Larson is the one that people will remember because he was the up more at the front. But let's not discredit JMac, because he had a solid run going before getting into the wall late in the race. He also wasn't too bad earlier this season at Pocono. He ran top 15 for most of the day and eventually finished 17th. He held 15.0 average running positon and but spent nearly 70% of the race inside the top 15. So not like he ran poorly at all, he just didn't get the finish he deserved in the end though. He been very consistent here at Pocono for awhile now. Over the past 5 Pocono races, he have compiled 11.2 average finish with 13.6 average running position and 86.8 driver rating. Over that 5 race-span, he have finished 17th or better in every race and have finished 4 of those races inside the top 15. In fact, he have finished 9 straight races at Pocono inside the top 17. If we look deeper into the data pool, he have finished 3 of the past 5 races here inside the top 10. With the Ganassi cars looking more improved than they were a couple months ago, I could see an top 10 finish out of JMac. But I think his finish range is more likely in the lower teens though.
2-Brad Keselowski: For the second straight week, Keselowski get an poor finish after contending up front for much of the race. And for the second race, it was because of a late race incident as well. So, he will try to turn things around at Pocono. A track that have been very good to him in the past. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 9.4 average finish with 11.8 average running positon and 100.6 driver rating. Keselowski was able to finish 3rd, despite being forced off-sequence early in the event. He started on the pole in June and had the right strategy in place late in the race, but he just didn't have enough time to get to the lead though. He have finished 4 of the past 6 races at this track inside the top 6. In fact, he have finished 3 of the past 5 Pocono races inside the top 3. Keselowski also have led in 4 of the past 5 Sprint Cup races this season. Headed into practice this week, Keselowski have to be a top 5 guy based on how he have performed on this type of track and how much speed he have shown this season (especially recently).
3-Austin Dillon: I believe Austin Dillon's top 10 run at Indy have put him in the green for making the chase. I wouldn't call him safe yet, but unless he has a major meltdown then he should be fairly safe bet to be in. However, I bet he would like to revenge his finish from earlier this season at Pocono. Prior to wrecking at Pocono earlier this season, he have been very success at this racetrack overall. In 4 career starts at this track, he have compiled 20.2 average finish with 18.4 average running positon and 73.9 driver rating. Of course that is including his 37th place finish from earlier this season (as I mentioned he wrecked in that race). Without that his numbers look like this: 16.0 average finish with 16.8 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. Last season at Pocono, he posted an 16.0 average finish with 14.5 average running position. He had his best Pocono race of his career, last August under Slugger (his crew chief). He finished 13th in that event after starting from the 4th starting position. He held a career-best 91.4 driver rating, which pretty tells me he didn't luck into that 13th place finish either. I point out last season races, because they are most relevant since data from earlier this season is basically invalid. Dillon is probably a top 15 or so driver headed into practice with possible top 10/top 12 upside. I will definitely be watching him in practice this weekend.
4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick is coming off a very strong Indy race, where he really wasn't a major factor by his standards. However from a pure performance standpoint in general, he was very good. But honestly, he was the best driver not in the Joe Gibbs Racing stable. He should be a factor at Pocono this weekend. Earlier this season in June, he wasn't bad but he had to overcome a couple of issues to finish 9th. He had a better car than that, but things just didn't line up for him on that day. Over the past 5 races at Pocono, he have compiled 13.8 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 102.3 driver rating. He have finished 3 of the past 4 races here inside the top 9, including a pair of 2nd place finishes last season. He also have a pair of finishes outside of the top 10 though, but both of those instances have been bad luck. If your fantasy format rewards lead lap, then you should know that he have led in 4 straight races at Pocono. There is definitely a lot to like about his recent track history here. His momentum headed into this race might be just as good. He is coming off back-to-back top 6 finishes at New Hampshire and Indy. In fact, over the past 8 Sprint Cup races he have finished 5 of 8 inside the top 6. Including 7 of 8 overall inside the top 9. Harvick have been a top 10 machine this season with 16 Top 10 finishes in 20 races. 2 of the 4 races, he didn't finish inside the top 10 was at Talladega and Daytona. Hard to argue with Harvick as a top fantasy pick this weekend.
5-Kasey Kahne: Despite finishing many spots ahead of fellow bubble drivers Ryan Blaney and Trevor Bayne, he is further behind for the final chase spot than he was previously. But that is a big thanks to Kyle Larson's top 5 finish though. All is not lost for him, he can gain ground with a solid effort this weekend. Honestly at the moment, I think Hendrick is pretty far behind the Gibbs cars (and even the Penske cars). With that being said, I think Kahne can very well be a top 15 driver this weekend. He been okay recently at this racetrack. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 22.8 average finish with 18.8 average running position and 77.7 driver rating. Overall, Kahne been hit or miss since joining HMS at Pocono. In 9 races, he have posted 5 Top 15 finishes and 4 finishes outside of the top 25. In fact, all 4 of those finishes have ended 29th or worse. On the plus side, he have turned things around lately. Over the past 4 Pocono races, he have finished 3 of 4 inside the top 13. Overall, he has mustered 4 Top 13 finishes over his past 6 races here. Kahne is running better than he was earlier in the year, but still there something off about this 5 team. Other than a couple races this season, he have not been better than a low to middle teen performer. I personally doubt he suddenly breaks out of his shell and exceed my expectations. Headed into the weekend, I don't think he finishes better than the lower teens, which is about 13th-15th place.
11-Denny Hamlin: Remember last season when Denny Hamlin got off to that terrible start and then become was one of the best drivers in the series in second half of the season. Not to make any bold predictions, but it may not be crazy to think that he can repeat something similar this season. It early still, but Hamlin starting to gain momentum and coming off his best two races of the season (in my opinion). Now he goes to Pocono, a place that he is multiple-time winner at. I consider him to be his playground back before the 2013 season. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.8 average finish with 10.4 average running position and 96.2 driver rating. He have finished 4 of the past 5 races inside the top 14. Including 3 Top 10 finishes in that 5 race span. Not nearly as impressive as I would like, but there is a couple things to really like about him that most fantasy players might not consider. Firstly, Hamlin is very good at Pocono in general. He haven't been the dominating driver that he was from 2009 to 2012, but I think that Hamlin could somewhat resurface. Also like that Joe Gibbs Racing have had the field covered lately. Their dominances at Indy says a lot about how strong their cars are. Hamlin also is starting to come around (maybe) and he been rock solid on the flats this season. Hamlin have posted 9 Top 10 finishes this season and 4 of those 9 Top 10 finishes have came on flat racetracks (Richmond, New Hampshire, Phoenix and Indy). Obvious only Pocono and Indy are the only large flats, but you get my point though.
17-Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Ricky have been bad at the larger flats in his cup career so far, but he has finishes of 12th and 15th this season at Indy and Pocono. Yeah, we all saw that coming! In fact, Ricky is starting build some nice momentum headed into Pocono. He finishes of 5th (Daytona), 10th (New Hampshire) and 12th (Indy) over his past 4 races. Want to go deeper into the data pool? He has 7 Top 15 finishes over his past 10 Sprint Cup races. His season numbers overall don't show how underrated he been. I am not even going to go into his career stats at Pocono, because in my opinion they are invalid. Mainly because how poorly RFR have ran over the past couple seasons. It seems like this organization is finally on the right track to success. I think Stenhouse is all but eliminated from making the chase on points. But don't think for a minute that he won't keep racking up top 15 finishes. As unlikely as it seemed headed into the season, there a good possibility that Ricky Stenhouse Jr could sweep the top 15 on the large flats in 2016. Crazy to think, when you looked at his numbers before the season started.
18-Kyle Busch: I knew it was only matter of time before Kyle Busch rolled back into victory lane and it not an accident that Joe Gibbs Racing is back to running lights-out dominant. When Rowdy struggled there for that rough stench, I felt like JGR was missing something (to certain extent). Maybe they were trying out some things? Who knows and who cares really with the way they are preforming right now. I think JGR will be tough to beat this week at Pocono and Kyle should be leading the charge once again. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 23.0 average finish with 16.4 average running position and 82.4 driver rating. Those numbers aren't great, but to be fair he have had a lot of bad luck. Earlier this season, he was top 10 good for the event but got wrecked by Ryan Newman. However, I believe it was triggered by Kasey Kahne if I remember correctly though. Last August race's was nuts and probably the most stupid fuel mileage race I ever have seen. Rowdy was running second to Joey Logano, but ran out of fuel on the final few laps and ended up 21st. In August 2013, he only completed 23 laps before his engine let go and finished 43rd. Otherwise, Kyle been pretty good. He have finished 12th or better in last four races with finishes of 9th (June 2015), 12th (June 2014), 8th (August 2013) and 6th (June 2013). If Rowdy can have luck on his side, then he will be a major threat to win this weekend. With the way JGR is running, I think he have to consider him one of the favorites headed into the weekend.
19-Carl Edwards: Edwards have ran quite well the past two weeks, but he have finished poorly in both of those races. I would say last week at Indy, hurt a lot more since he was so strong for most of the event prior to be wrecked. Edwards and the JGR cars have been studs on the flats this season. Honestly, I wouldn't expect any thing different this week either. Edwards been very solid at Pocono recently, too. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 20.6 average finish with 13.4 average running position and 87.4 driver rating. In three career starts with JGR, he has finishes of 8th, 10th and 15th so far. He enters the weekend with back-to-back top 10 finishes at Pocono in the #19 car. Earlier this season, I thought he was top 10 good for the event but he never contended like I expected him to though. However, I think that changes this weekend. JGR wasn't overly strong in that race. They did led some laps, but not like they have the past couple weeks. I think it was during that short stench of races where the Gibbs cars seemed to have lost the competitive edge they have right now. So yeah, I believe Edwards will have a better performance this time around. With that being said, I am concerned about Edwards because he haven't had any luck the past two races. In fact, he have finished 20th or worse in 3 of the past 4 races now. While that is somewhat worrisome, we cannot predict races so, if he is fast then I will have in my fantasy lineups.
20-Matt Kenseth: Matt Kenseth is running awesome right now and not enough people are even noticing it quite frankly. Sounds crazy, but it kinda true. But with the way Kyle Busch have been running this season, I can see why though. Kenseth now have won at New Hampshire and came to Indy and finished 2nd place. He on a 3-race top 8 streak currently and very well could make it 4 straight this week at Pocono. For years, I didn't consider this a ''Matt Kenseth'' track but my tune have changed the last couple races. He have been awesome here and is pretty underrated in my opinion over the past 2 seasons. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 15.4 average finish with 14.4 average running positon and 92.5 driver rating. The past two races here, Kenseth have been really strong overall and been a top 5 performer. Last August, he went to victory lane after outsmarting the competition by saving enough of fuel to cross the finish line. He came back earlier this season and led 31 laps to an 7th place finish. He much better than that though, as he probably had the car to beat in the latter stages until he faded after the final restart. Kenseth will be under the radar and honestly he may be the best kept secret because he doesn't have standout stats.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney once again have another bad day and it probably will take a win for him to make the chase. Unrealistically he could make it on points, but he cannot have anymore bad finishes. That will be difficult to go the next 5-6 races without making a rookie mistake. Regardless, the 21 team have been performing well all season long and it not like he haven't had speed. If he can overcome this recent bad luck then he can finish top 15 every single week. Earlier this season at Pocono, he was top 15 strong for much of the event and finished 10th place. Headed into the weekend, I would say that Blaney is a low to middle teen driver with potential to sneak away with rough a top 10 finish.
22-Joey Logano: Logano is having a pretty good season so far and seems to be coming on stronger as the Penske cars are catching up to the Gibbs cars. A month ago, I thought Penske have caught the Gibbs bunch. But now they are behind again, but Logano have proven in recent weeks he can be a very effective fantasy option regardless. He been a stud here at Pocono! Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 14.4 average finish with 9.4 average running position and 103.9 driver rating. Logano have been amazing at Pocono since joining Penske. In 7 races in the #22 car, he have posted 5 Top 10 finishes. With 3 Top 5 finishes over his past 4 races at this racetrack. However, it should be 6 straight top 5 finishes though. Last August, he was dominated and led 97 laps but he ran out of fuel with a few laps to go. In June 2014, he finished very poorly because of an blown engine late in the race. He was running top 5 when it let go. Logano and the 22 team will be someone you have to beat this weekend, in order to go to victory lane. He is also an former winner at this racetrack, but never with Penske. I bet that is eating at this 22 team, especially after being some close in last season's event.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott is coming off an disappointing 15th finish at Indy. He was running top 10 on the final lap, but got Truex Jr pushed him into the grass that cost him several spots. Still a solid day for him, considering he ran outside of the top 20 for much of that race. So now he returns to Pocono Raceway where he put on a clinic earlier this season and many (including myself) thought he had a great shot to win before the final restart. Elliott finished 4th back in June, after leading a race-high 51 laps. He have definitely cooled off with his finishes, but it only take one great finish for Elliott to breakout and go on another streak. I think he will be awesome this weekend, but will he back up his performance from June? I honestly don't know. I think he will definitely know more after practice and qualifying.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman had a very rough day at Indy. He ran top 15 all day (that is very Ryan Newman-like), but then ran into Carl Edwards and got some damage. His team fixed him up and kept him on the lead lap. That's good, right? Yes, but then JMac happened and that pretty much ended any reasonable chance for him to get a top 20 finish. Luckily for Newman, he is a consistent teen finisher and doesn't typically have back-to-back bad finishes. I would be very shocked if that happened actually. And he loves Pocono and Pocono loves him right back. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 17.8 average finish with 16.6 average running position and 77.7 driver rating. Not overly great numbers, but he been consistent here for many years though. He just had two poor finishes here in 2015 that hurts his recent stats. If we look at the past 16 races at Pocono, Newman have posted 14 Top 14 finishes. His only two finishes outside of the top 14 was in both races last season. Overall, he has finished 12th or better in 10 of past 12 races. Including an 12th place finish here earlier this season in June. Newman is a very safe bet for this weekend and should be considered one of the best choices if you looking a solid top 10 or top 12 pick.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is officially in a slump of finishing 3 of the past 4 races outside of the top 10, in a season that he only finished worse than 10th only one time in the first 16 races. He now turns his attention back to one of his best tracks on the schedule. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 11.8 average finish with 10.6 average running positon and 113.8 driver rating. Busch have been awesome here in that 5-race span, the overall numbers don't quite show how good he have been. As, he has 9 top 10 finishes over his past 13 races at Pocono. Over the past 7 races here, he have post 5 Top 7 finishes. Digging deeper into the data pool, he have posted 4 Top 5 finishes, including 3 Top 3 finishes in the past 6 races at this racetrack. Just because I want to drill my point home, over his past 10 Pocono races he have finished 5th or better in 6 of 10 races. Kurt is the man here and won in June earlier this season. Add-in his consistency this season and you get an very powerful fantasy option. I honestly don't know if there is a better racetrack to use Kurt Busch at. Maybe Cali, but that was way back in March so it isn't an option anymore. So if you are planning to use Kurt at all this season, then I would have him on my fantasy radar this week and into the weekend.
42-Kyle Larson: Not many people realize it, but Kyle Larson is having a fantastic summer stench of races. Over the past 9 Sprint Cup races, he have posted 7 Top 13 finishes. Including 3 Top 5 finishes in that span. Pretty good for team like Chip Ganassi Racing who have struggled in seasons prior to generate speed. But Larson seems to be hitting his stride as he hits the meat of his schedule. The next four races are all very good tracks for him, starting with Pocono. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 9.4 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 91.6 driver rating. He have never finished worse than 12th place at this track. Earlier this season, he finished 11th place and was decent overall. He led a few laps early in the event, which meant he was off-sequence until an caution got him caught back up. I say he had top 12 or 14 car overall. Larson also ran very well last week and quite frankly I wasn't expect him to be top 10 good at Indy. But he was and that should probably translate to Pocono. Also his performances at Pocono so far in his career needs to be notable. In career starts, he have posted an driver rating above 95.0 three times already. I would consider June's race as his worst race by far at Pocono, but his performance numbers aren't valid because how that race played out. Larson is definitely someone to keep on your radar. Headed into the race, I have him close to being at top 10 driver.
48-Jimmie Johnson: I predicted that Johnson would have a breakout race at Indy and he delivered (love when drivers make me look smart)! By doing so, he was able to snap a 6-race top 10-less streak on the season and will look to keep the momentum going at Pocono. Johnson was once very dominant at this track, but I think HMS is quite a bit behind the competition (Gibbs/Penske) right now. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 17.8 average finish with 13.8 average running position and 95.5 driver rating. In that 5-race span, he been top 6 or bust really. He has 3 Top 6 finishes and two races where he finished 35th and 39th. On the downside, he had finished outside of the top 10 the past 3 of 4 races at Pocono. However, he did finish 6th place in last season's race. Despite all of that, this have been a great racetrack for the 48 in the past and I think it definitely possible that he can return to being a solid top 5 to 7 fantasy option. He is on my fantasy radar headed into practice this weekend.
78-Martin Truex Jr: I had higher for hopes for Truex at Indy, but an 8th place finish wasn't bad either though. Of the Toyotas, I would say that Truex was the slowest (he probably had the 5th or 6th best car overall) at Indy. However, I think he will be more of a factor at Pocono. Over the past 5 races here, he have compiled 16.0 average finish with 14.6 average running position and 92.2 driver rating. He has only two top 10 finishes over that 5-race span, however he have had a lot of bad luck overall. Earlier this season (in June), he finished 19th and probably had one of his worst races of the season by his performance. With only 61.3 driver rating and 23.0 average running position with only spending 11% of the race inside the top 15. Those are very terrible numbers, so why was he so bad? Well, let's just say that Pocono the first time around was nothing but bad luck for the 78 team. He was close to the top 10 when he got into the 83 car which caused him to make multiple pit stops under caution to repair the damage. Then he had a couple flat tires which further made his day frustration. Overall, it was a day to forget for Truex. Last August, he was once again very good. He was 3rd or 4th place until he ran out of fuel and finished 19th place. He won here in June 2015 after leading 97 laps. I think with the way the JGR cars are running, you have to consider Truex being just slightly behind them. If the Gibbs bunch look good in practice, then I can pretty much guess that Truex will be right there as well. I have Truex pinned as a top 10 driver headed into the weekend.
88-Jeff Gordon: In the fantasy Nascar update on Saturday, I said that Gordon wouldn't be nothing more than a low-teen finisher and he finished 13th place. I was pretty spot on about that and I expect him to be even better at Pocono. For a couple reasons actually, too. Firstly, the 88 team been nothing short of amazing when setting up the cars at Pocono when Dale Jr been in the car. Also Gordon now have more experience with this race package and it shown at Indy as the race progress. The more time Gordon was behind the wheel, the better he got in my opinion. And it sounds like Gordon may be behind the wheel for awhile. Especially with the rumors that Dale Jr could miss Watkin Glenn as well. Gordon haven't been rumored to run that race yet, but I am willing to bet he does though. Gordon is a low to middle driver once again, but I will give him a higher ceiling this week though.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
