Saturday, July 09, 2016

Fantasy Nascar Update (Kentucky)

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Kentucky is a very tough race to predict for several reasons and the biggest would be the tire that they are using this week. Goodyear told teams to scuff in the tires, so most teams spent Thursday and Friday doing that. In simpler terms, we won't get much irrelevant practice data. Since we didn't get many long runs. Now, if we were at Atlanta or Texas or somewhere where the fall-off was noticeable, then we could figure out who the contenders and pretenders. However, at Kentucky we don't get the luxury of that. To see who have the fastest cars, we need to see long runs and we just won't get that from the info in practice. On top of that, this is a night race. In general, night races are tough to predict because of when practice is held. Then throw in a newly repave/reconfigured track with a different race package, and you basically get a crapshoot. Not meaning there will be a lot of wrecks or anything, but a crapshoot in, ''I don't know the fuck what going to happen''. So I would recommend to look at recent intermediate tracks more than usual this weekend. Also track position will be very much a key as well.

Here how I think the Competiiton stacks up!

A:

1. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch have to be your odds-on favorite to win on Saturday's night! He have a impressive reptaution at Kentucky Speedway and will have more track time this weekend than everyone else. Most weeks, I wouldn't think that gives you a significant edge. However this place was just repaved and reconfigured. If I am a driver, I want much track time as possible. He also will roll off from the 6th starting position on Saturday night and had one of the fastest cars in practice. He been among the top 5 in every practice session. Which probably surprises nobody. He ended final practice (the most similar practice) with the 4th-best ten lap average. On top of that, the 18 car been fast all season long on the intermediate racetracks. Including back in May (at Kansas) where he went to victory lane, after Martin Truex Jr gave the race away late. Busch had a top 5 for majority of that night. Kansas has a similar surface and in my opinion is the most relevant track to compare Kentucky to. I think you would be a fool to pass up Kyle Busch at Kentucky. I consider this as one of his best tracks and I think he will go to victory lane on Saturday night!

My Overall Ranking: 1st

2. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski is usually the second driver everyone thinks of at Kentucky Speedway and his level of success at this venue explains why. I think Keselowski will be a heavy factor on Saturday night. He should have won last season's race, as he had the best car, but he kept shooting himself in the foot constantly. In practice, I didn't think he had the raw speed of some of the other contenders. However, I think he will be good on the long runs. I would say more of a consistent speed than some of the others. The Penske cars are good for that and that how they usually beat you. They may not show in practice with staggering speed, but they don't need to. Because, more times than not the long run speed is what separates the contenders. I also mentioned that track position will be key at Kentucky speed, Brad Keselowski will roll off from the 2nd starting position. Recently, he been strong this season. He was among the top 5 at Michigan when the low-downforce package was used and was easy top 10 strong back at Kansas. And that isn't even considering his win at Daytona last weekend, which gives him plenty of momentum. In fact, the Penske cars have found plenty of speed lately that have translated into top 5 and top 10 finishes. Keep your eyes on the No.2 car on Saturday night, because you probably will have to beat him in order to win.

My Overall Ranking: 2nd

3. Kevin Harvick - Harvick will start from the pole and made a very strong case to be the number 1 overall fantasy pick this weekend in my rankings. But he known to have disappoint finishes (means he doesn't always get the finishes he truly deserves). I think the 4 car will be very strong on Saturday night and him starting on the pole will only help him potentially reach victory lane. The 4 car been fast in every practice session (minus the #3 practice, but I think they could've been trying things). In final practice, I thought he looked among the contenders. On top of looking pretty good in practice, I think passing will quite difficult. So him starting from the pole should only help make him a top tier fantasy option. I don't think he has a dominating car or a car that will lead the most laps, but I get a feeling he will lead plenty early on. Harvick also been very good on the 1.5 mile tracks this season, as he have finished top 10 in every single one of them. He finished 2nd at Kansas earlier this season and that was after a very poor starting position. He should be one of the few drivers you expect to contend for the win on Saturday night!

My Overall Ranking: 3rd

4. Joey Logano - Joey Logano loves this low-downforce package and I wouldn't be shocked to see him go to victory lane on Saturday night. He dominated last month at Michigan and he may just do it once again. I didn't see that kind of speed out of him, but I didn't see dominating-type speed in practice at Michigan either. Needless to say, I think he is a top 5 fantasy option headed into the race. The 22 car didn't post any long runs (nobody really did - because of scruff-in tires), but I think he going to be just fine. As I mentioned up above with his teammate, I think the Penske cars will be very good on the long runs. It always seem to be like that for them on these intermediate tracks. Remember the two most comparable tracks to Kentucky would be Las Vegas and Kansas. At Vegas, they (Penske) were the best two cars in the field on the long runs. At Kansas, they weren't the best cars. But they had top 5 potential . If Denny Hamlin didn't make a daredevil move late in that race. I will be honest, I had a slight concern that Kurt Busch would try something. But then I realized this is a 1.5 mile track and payback is usually served up on the short tracks. Overall, I think Logano will be a top 5 guy when the checkers wave.

My Overall Ranking: 5th

5. Jimmie Johnson - Right now I think the Hendrick cars just off compared to the top competition (JGR, Penske and SHR,etc). The 48 looked the best among the HMS cars probably overall, but he wrecked his primary car. He backup had no real issues and shown pretty good speed like the primary. But a team chooses a primary car for a reason over the backup. I don't think it will matter too much. I don't think headed into the race that Johnson will be a top 5 threat, but the 48 team will fix him up and I believe he will be close to it before end of the night. Johnson also been pretty good on the 1.5 mile tracks all season long. The only track he finished outside of the top 4 was at Kansas. To be fair, he was top 10 good much of that race. But a late penalty killed his chances at a quality finish though. Johnson seemed to struggled a bit more with the low-downforce package than most of us expected at Michigan, so I am very interested how he will fair at Kentucky. Headed into the race, he is probably a top 10 fantasy option. Johnson also is in a mini-slump of sort. He only has two top 10 finishes over his past 9 races this season. Good news is? His two top 10 finishes have ended in 3rd place. The most recent one (Charlotte) was the most recent 1.5 mile racetrack for whatever it worth.

My Overall Ranking: 6th

B:

1. Carl Edwards - Edwards will be a tough driver to beat in Saturday's night race at Kansas. I don't think there is a better driver in the series at adapting to repaves than Edwards. He also topped two of the three practices session that were held on Friday afternoon. He didn't post any long runs or anything, but he has some speed in his #19 Toyota. Not only did he have some speed in practice, but he unloaded pretty quick as well. Typically when the 19 car is near top of the charts and showing speed, then it usually a great sign of things to come for him. He also will be starting from the 5th position which gives him some great track position from start of the race. I think that will be very important in the race. I believe the JGR cars will be tough to beat at Kentucky on Saturday night and you should expect Carl Edwards to be one of them. Overall, I have him listed as a top 5 fantasy option.

My Overall Ranking: 4th

2. Martin Truex Jr - I debated where to rank Martin Truex Jr, he is clearly the second-best option in this tier of drivers, but the debate was weather he's top 5 material or not. I think he has the speed (based on practice) to be a top 5 threat. However my concern is can he avoid that dreaded bad luck that seems to bite him every time he close to a solid finish. I honestly don't know, but as always we cannot worry about that. Because what happens in the race will happen. We cannot control fate, but we can control what we know headed into the race. Sure, Truex been inconsistent this season with his finishes. However, he been a stud on this type of track lately. He have led over 70% of the laps on the last three 1.5 mile tracks, dating back to Texas. It scary to think that he have dominated like that, but you could make the argument that a good portion of it was at Charlotte. Fair point, but he also led 100+ laps at both Texas and Kansas. Headed into the race, I view Truex as a top 10 guy with top 5 speed/finish potential.

My Overall Ranking: 7th

3. Kyle Larson - My dark horse pick for Saturday night's race is Kyle Larson. He been one of the better drivers in the series over the past two months and showing us why he was considered at once the next big thing. He have blown some great opportunities, but I feel like he could cash in at Kentucky. Based on raw speed, I don't know if there was anyone better than him. I am not sure, if he will be able to be a threat on the long runs. My gut says he may fade on the long runs and have a rocket on the short runs. Kinda like at Kansas, but we will see I guess. He showed a good amount of speed in practice though, which is always encouraging from the No.42 Chevy. Larson topped the charts in the ten-lap average department. I thought overall that Larson was one of the best drivers outside of the Toyota camp. It was him or Harvick probably in my opinion as the best. But he starting from 20th place, so will be harder for him to make it through the field with a lot of passing. With that said, I do think he will eventually make it to the front. When he does make it to the front, he should have something for the contenders on Saturday night. Keep your eye on the No.42 car as he makes his way through the field.

My Overall Ranking: 10th

4. Austin Dillon - I am honestly not really seeing why people are loving him so much this weekend, but I didn't spend much time on him in practice either. However his record this season on the intermediate tracks have been pretty damn solid, so I will assume that is why he is getting the love from the fantasy nascar community. He finished final practice with the 7th-fastest single lap. It should be noted that Dillon didn't post any ten-lap averages in final practice. I cannot really judge Dillon too much, because I don't think practice is too important this week. Least not as much as it should be and I also didn't really pay attention to him on the lap times, so I will just leave it as that with him.

My Overall Ranking: 12th

5. Ryan Newman - This final spot was down to Ryan Newman or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. I went back and forth with this decision for awhile and eventually went with Mr.Consistency himself (Ryan Newman). Newman looked good in every practice session this weekend and really haven't given me a reason to not trust him. His track record this season on the 1.5 mile tracks also gives me some confidents in him to deliver. In fact, he have plenty of momentum headed into this race. He have finished inside the top 15 in 5 of the past 6 Sprint Cup Races. His lone non-top 15 finish was back at Daytona. Newman is someone you can trust to deliver a quality finish. He will roll off from the 14th starting spot and likely finish within a few positions of that. Newman isn't a driver who will surprise you, he is what the sale price says. That usually a good thing and with all of the unknowns, I think it might be a blessing.

My Overall Ranking: 13th

C:

1. Chase Elliott - Chase Elliott is head and shoulders better than everyone else in this grouping tier of drivers. He was very strong back at Michigan where this low-downforce package was first used at. He showed top 10 speed in almost every practice session and probably will be able to keep that top 10 starting position and turn it in another impressive rookie showing. Like always, I think Elliott will spend the first half of the race trying to figure out the track. Then in the second half, I fully expect him to be a threat to win this race. This kid just impresses me every time he is on the racetrack and it almost to the point, where I would be disappointed if he didn't battle for the win on Saturday night. I have some very high hopes for Chase Elliott and the 24 team.

My Overall Ranking: 15th

2. Ryan Blaney - I am honestly not sure what we will see out of Ryan Blaney, I wished qualifying wasn't rained out though. I really liked him prior to that, but now just don't know. He showed good speed in practice, as he had 10th-fastest lap overall and 9th-best ten-lap average in final practice. But just would have like him to have a top 10 starting position. It is what it is, he will likely move forward and contend for a finish around the top 10 when the checkers wave. I think we need to use Blaney on tracks that don't see a major amount of fall-off at, like Michigan, Kentucky, Kansas,etc. He tend to do much at these kind of venues, compared to the other places we go. I have him across the line in the low to middle teens on Saturday night.

My Overall ranking: 18th

3. Ty Dillon - Dillon have looked better than most expected in the 95 car this weekend so far. He haven't been great or nothing, but he certainly looks better than many of us were expecting. I was kind of nervous to be completely honest. As I heard, he would be getting ''some support'' from RCR in the 95 this week, not an RCR car. But he looks like he is capable of a top 25 finish and maybe even an top 20 finish. If you play Yahoo Fantasy Racing, I don't know if you can pass up this opportunity with Ty Dillon. Especially since I don't think there will be too many more races where he's in the car. You will have to bite the bullet and take a loss, but it will be worth it for later in the season in my opinion.

My Overall Ranking: 24th

Yahoo Grouping Tier Rankings

A:

1. Kyle Busch
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Joey Logano
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. Matt Kenseth
7. Kurt Busch
8. Denny Hamlin
9. Dale Jr

B:

1. Carl Edwards
2. Martin Truex Jr
3. Kyle Larson
4. Austin Dillon
5. Ryan Newman
6. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
7. Kasey Kahne
8. JMac
9. Greg Biffle
10. Paul Menard

C:

1. Chase Elliott
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Ty Dillon
4. Chris Buescher
5. Brian Scott

Twitter - @JeffNathans18