Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Fantasy Football Starts/Sits (Week 3)

Welcome to TimersSports


Starts/Sits -

***CBS Sports Based scoring format

Starts -

QBs -

Matthew Stafford - Alright last week didn't go quite as planned against the Titans defense. But to be completely fair, Stafford was robbed by penalties. There were a series of 4 straight plays in which the Detroit's offense was penalized. No joke either. In fact, two times in the redzone which should have been Touchdowns on back-to-back plays. Both times, the offense was penalized. Of course couple series before, there was a dropped touchdown pass by Eric Ebron in corner of the endzone. Point being, Stafford stat-line should've way better. In week 3, he will face off against the Green Bay Packers. The Packers defense really struggled to stop Sam Bradford last week, and they are without their top defender in Sam Shields. The Packers has a very capable secondary, with Shields on the field. However, when he is not on the field. They seems to struggled more. As there is no leadership, with all of the inexperience in such as Rollins and Randall. Also, I expect a shootout between teams. I personally don't think defense will matter too much.

Matt Ryan - Matt Ryan is one of my favorite fantasy plays this in week 3. He has been awesome through two weeks. With 730 yards and 5 Touchdowns. Despite, his best weapon being a bit banged up with his ankle in Julio Jones. He is still finding ways to spread the ball around and getting strong production. Ryan struggled often last season because of a poor offensive line and I thought, how well they protected him would be a key factor in Ryan's success. Through two weeks of this season, he has produced 29.5 fantasy points. After two weeks in 2015, he only was able to average 20.5 fantasy points. In week 3, he get a juicy matchup against the New Orleans Saints defense. They held Eli Manning in check for the most, but he threw for nearly 350 yards. Trust me, the Saints defense won't be able to hold Ryan back too much. Unlike Manning, I doubt the Saints can stop Ryan from throwing touchdown passes. I expect 300+ yards and 1-2 Touchdown passes. It will be a strong stat-line on Monday night football!

Phillip Rivers - Rivers was awesome in week 2 vs the Jags, where he scored 4 touchdowns passes and 300+ yards. Things only get sweeter vs an extremely thin Indy secondary. During the Colts game, they at one point without 5 of their Cornerbacks. Five folks! That's ridiculous and it should only lead to good things for Phillip Rivers. He will be without two of his best offesive weapons in Allen and Woodhead, but there are plenty of balls to go around to likes of Williams, Gates and Benjamin. That's not even mentioning Melvin Gordon, who can also catch passes out of the backfield. Trust me, Rivers will light up this Colts' defense and it should lead to a solid afternoon for him this Sunday. I project him to throw for about 325-355 yards and multiple touchdowns passes.

RBs -

Melvin Gordon - Back before the season started, Melvin Gordon was getting drafted in most drafts after the 7 or 8 rounds. Heck, in one of my fantasy draft, he actually fell to the 10th round. I had to pick him up and boy has the upside been awesome. Through two weeks in 2015, he's posted 149 yards and 0 Touchdowns. In 2016 through two weeks, he has posted 158 yards and 3 Touchdowns. Big difference? Gordon is scoring touchdowns. He is also getting more carries as well, especially if Woodhead being out for the year. I thought before the woodhead news, he was already a top 15 fantasy back. In week 1, he rushed 16 times for 51 and two touchdowns. Then last week, he had a full workload and posted an 24 carries for 102 and a score stat-line. Can you expect the same volume of carries going forward? You bet. And he got three targets in last week's game. In fact in 2015, he was targeted 37 times in 14 games. It helps that, he is playing against the Colts. They had allowed the most fantasy points per game (34.6). In fact, they has already allowed nearly 500 total yards and 5 scores to running backs. Start Melvin Gordon!

DeMarco Murray - Murray is having a great start to season out of the Tennessee's backfield, even though some oof the damage with has been with catching passes. That doesn't matter because he is still getting a solid volume of carries through two games. In fact, he has 25 carries and 12 catches so far this season. Only DeAngelo Williams and T.J Yeldon has 20 carries and 10 catches in the first two weeks in 2016. He should continue to produce strong numbers vs the Raiders. The Raiders has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points through two weeks this season, with 20.0 fantasy points per game. David Johnson was able to run all over this Oakland defense. Murray isn't in as talented of an offense, but he will easily have opportunities to perform well this weekend. Especially with him getting on average 12.5 carries and 7 targets per game this season.

Eddie Lacy - Lacy has not been very productive so far this season with only 6.4 fantasy per game on 111 yards rushing and 0 touchdown. And the Lions statically from a far looks tough on running back this season,awhile allowing only 19.5 fantasy points per game. Okay a good point to avoid Lacy because those things aren't great combination for fantasy success. However, it is misleading. Lacy is a slow starter, he has been every single year he been in the league. So I am not concerned about it. He also faced a tough defense last week in the Vikings. Detroit's defensive numbers against the run is inflated in my opnion. The Colts didn't run the ball much to begin with, since they were playing from behind. However, in a tough ball game vs the Tennessee. DeMarco Murray ran for 89 yards on the ground with just 12 carries. That's a impressive 7.2 yac. Henry added 42 on 9 more carries. So 140 on the ground total and add about another 60 from catching passes. The Lions allowed 200 yards last week vs the Titans to running backs. James Starks will eat into Lacy's carries, but not enough for you to start your season's projected starter. Let's be honest, most fantasy teams out there cannot afford to bench this guy. Roll with Eddie Lacy this week!

Wide Receivers -

Marvin Jones - I am not a big believer in the Packers defense, even with Sam Shields they aren't that good. In fact, I was stunned to learn they were 4th in pass defense last season. This defensive unit always seems to give up big totals to opposing offenses. The Lions should take advantage of it this week, much like the Vikings were able to on Sunday night football. Expect them to pass very often in a high-scoring game, even if it wasn't, they will still pass the ball a lot. Face it, the Lions are a passing football team. They love to pass the ball and spread it around. However, Marvin Jones seems to be the go-to-guy in the Stafford-led offense. In week 1, Stafford targeted Jones a team-high 10 times. Last week? Again team-high in targets, while getting targeted 11 times on 8 catches. No touchdowns, but he is starting to pull away from the others in the Detroit offense. It's early, but he's might be the No.1 guy going. Any relevant player in this offense will rack up catches and yards. It will be no difference for Jones on Sunday vs Green Bay. This Packers secondary allowed 180+ yards vs Diggs, matter of days ago. Hard seeing them keeping the Lions receiving core in check all day. Jones should be started, without any question!

Jeremy Maclin -  Maclin wasn't super effective last week with only 6 catches for 68 yards, despite being targeted 15 times vs Houston. I think at lot of the miscues can be linked to Alex Smith being under pressure constantly. Through two weeks, Maclin is averaging 11 targets per game with 6.5 catches per game. He may not have turned those catches into much production (only 129 yards on 11 catches), but he is primed to have a breakout game this weekend vs the Jets. Revis Island has lost it touch through two games. In week 1, he was schooled by AJ Green. As he went off for 180+ yards and last week, he was beat twice deep downfield against the Bills. Through two games, the Jets has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game (35.8). He should be in for a big day, espeiclaly since Jamaal Charles probably won't be available. Maclin is the clear number 1 option in the passing attack and he should be able to have around 6 to 8 catches. So far this season, he has 11 yards per catch. If he can add a touchdown to that, he should be an excellent backend No.2 / high-end No.3.

Travis Benjamin - There are plenty of unclaimed targets to go around from Allen and Woodhead, you can absolutely expect Benjamin to take a good portion of them. After Woodhead went down last week, Benjamin went off for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns from Quarterback Phillip Rivers. He's a must-play vs the Colts' defense as well. Indy was terrible vs the pass happy Lions and even was burned by the Broncos in week 2. I would make comparision to the Detroit, when looking for possible potential in what to expect. Let's be honest, this will be a high-scoring affair. I don't think either defense will be able to keep the other team in check for long. So passing the ball will be a common theme. I see the Chargers running the ball a lot too, but probably more in the first half though. Benjamin should be a major factor on Sunday, too. He's the No.1 guy, besides Gates. Benjamin should feast on the the worst pass defense through two weeks. Benjamin is probably a every week starter as a Wide out here on out, long as Phillip Rivers is passing the ball at a solid rate.

Tight Ends -

Antonio Gates - Look up above as I mentioned about Benjamin, Gordon and Rivers about the Colts' terrible defense. Last week, Gates only saw 5 targets but he still scored a touchdown. However, the game wasn't ever that close so he wasn't really needed. As Melvin Gordon ran the ball 24 times. A lot of those carries came in the second half as well. So the passing game wasn't really needed, therefore Gates didn't see too many looks. Against the Colts', I expect Gates to be much more involved. Let's be honest here, the Colts are a much better team (offensively) than the Jags are. So there will likely be a better chance for a shootout. In fantasy football, shootout usually a great thing to have. Gates should be one of the players who benefit from it. Gates is an elite fantasy option, who should be started. Headed into this matchup, Gates is an Tight-End 1-cablier option!

Delanie Walker - Walker was an afterthought in week 1, while only posting 42 yards. He bounces back in week 2, with 89 yards and a touchdowns vs the Lions. In week 3, he get a great matchup vs the Raiders. Personally, I expect the Titans to fall behind early in the game and have to battle back late in the game. Much like, they did vs Detroit. A big reason for his week 2 success, was because how much they were forced to pass the ball. Through two games, the Raiders has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points per game (12.4). This is a great matchup for Walker' owners and they should take advantage of it.

Sits -

Andy Dalton - Dalton had two games to start off the season, despite neither really being viewed as favorable. Nevertheless, he lit up the Jets secondary in week 1 and got some enough garbage time to produce good numbers. However in week 3, it will be his toughest challenge yet. He also could be without Star Wide out AJ Green (his wife is having a baby), who was shutdown by the Steelers. That's scary because the Broncos boosts a far better unit than the Steelers do. Just ask the Colts who were held under 200 yards through the air. No disrespect to Dalton, but Luck is a better all-around Quarterback. Personally, I find it diffcult to see any upside with Dalton this weekend. He has better matchups coming up too. In most leagues, I think there are better options to consider. As Dalton wasn't drafted as your starter. Unless you drafted in the 14th or 15th round. Keep Dalton on your bench.

Kirk Cousins - Cousins has struggled through two games this season. As he is currently producing as the 25th-best Quarterback in fantasy football. Through two games, he has only posted 30.6 fantasy points. Only 5 other Quarterbacks, who has played both games has less total fantasy points. He also is only one of 4 Quarterbacks currently who has less touchdowns to interceptions (1 touchdown, 3 interceptions). The other three are Robert Griffin III (injured), Jay Culter (Injured) and Trevor Siemian (Rookie). Not good company to have for Kirk. Now, he has a tough matchup against the Giants. The Giants' defense has significantly improved from last year and they are looking legit through two games. So far, they has allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points (13.4) per game. In fact, they had allowed only 245 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game so far.

Running Backs -

Todd Gurley - This is a questionable call here on Gurley. Like Eddie Lacy (up above), you are probably going to start him. Since, I doubt you have anyone else available better. Unless you drafted deep at RB. If you did, hear me out about sitting Gurley. He has a solid matchup vs Tampa Bay. But that doesn't mean anything though. He has struggled this season to run the ball. Sure last week, it was expected vs the Seahawks and the 49ers who knows. However, the problem is the Bucs will stack it up against the run all game long and force the Rams to pass. You are probably like, so what he's a great back. Yeah, but his offensive line isn't good and only has 98 yards rushing on 36 attempts. About 2.2 yac after the first hit. Even for Gurley that's terrible and he get hit a lot. I am not saying to sit him, but this is more of bust alert than anything. If you have him, chances are you are starting him.

Jeremy Hill - As much hate the likes of Gurley, Ingram, and Lacy has gotten, I am suprised nobody have start calling Hill out for his lack of production. I don't know, if there has been a worst fantsy back in football than Hill. Through two games, he has posted 53 total yards and one touchdown. That's an ugly stat-line, to surprise why Hill is heavily touchdown dependent to be an fantasy asset. To add a further to his Hill's owners, Gio Benard had more snaps and was far more production. On top of that, he has a tough matchup vs the Broncos. The Bengals will likely have to get away from the run early and be forced to pass. That will favor Gio once again, Hill's owners. Just bench least until next week and even then I am not sold on him. Very disappointing year for Hill, after looking vastly improved in the training camp and preseason.

Wide Receivers -

Sammy Watkins - I was probably a little too hard on Sammy's Quarterback (Tyrod Taylor), but my prediction on Sammy was spot on though. Watkins struggled most of the night to get open and only posted about 20 yards, despite being targeted 6 times. Late in the game, he had a chance to on a deep ball that was interception but couldn't get there in time. Sammy is still dealing that injury from a couple weeks ago, and probably doing better now. However, it not unrealistic to think it still bothering him. It didn't really ever affect him in week 2, so it not a concern. However, it is concerning that he will be covered by Patrick Peterson though. Just bench Sammy this week and hope the fantasy production shows signs of life in the future.

Golden Tate - I wasn't very high on Golden Tate heading into the season, I thought he had great promise but would be the 2nd-fliddle to Marvin Jones after about 5 weeks or so. While it didn't even take that long, we are at week 3 and it seems like Jones has already passed him. Through two weeks, Tate has been out-targeted (21 to 16), out done in catches (12 to 9) and out produced in yards (203 to 54). Currently, Golden Tate is the 95th-best Wide Receiver on 2.8 fantasy points per game. It's not like, he isn't getting the opportunities. He is getting basically the same number of targets as Jones is. The big difference is Tate isn't able to turn them into anything though. I personally don't hate him in this possible shootout, but I think there are better options to consider though.

Tight Ends -

Martellus Bennett - Bennett had a terrible debut back in week 1, but came back with a huge game in week 2. However, I don't think the trend will continue. Even if Gronk isn't back, he probably won't have a major role as a fantasy option. As the Pats will look to depend on the run more often, which means Bennett will be used more as a blocker than a receiver. Just as we saw in week 1 vs the Cards. New Quarterback, needs protection. So much like week 1, you can expect Bennett stat line to be lackluster. Thursday night games usually don't lead to fantasy production, either. Unless it is a high-scoring game (like last week). Based on what we know already, I find it hard to see that happening. I am not very high on him going forward and at best an high-end TE2 fantasy play this week.

Gary Barnidge - Barnidge was a interesting draft choice back before the season start, after the year he had in 2015. But now, it is becoming clear, it isn't a good idea to own anyone in Cleveland. They are on their 3rd starting Quarterback of 2016 and will now be without their best Wide Reciever in Corey Coleman. Their other star in Josh Gordon won't be back until week 5. So that's mean defenses can now focus on retaining Barnidge even more. Not ideal, since he has seen his targets and catches through two weeks pretty limited. These next few weeks, he may see more passes go his way but I think there are better options out there. Even though, this position is pretty thin overall.

****All stats are from FFToday

Previous 2016 Fantasy Football Articles -

Fantasy Football Rankings Week 1 - William Frang

Fantasy Football Starts/Sits Week 2 

Fantasy Football Rankings Week 2 - William Frang


Twitter - @MattAleza