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Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: I don't think it a fluke that the Chip Ganassi Racing cars have a ton of speed right now. Over the past month and a half, they have consistently challenged up towards the front. Remember how strong they in the 2014 chase? Contending for multiple top 5 and top 10 finishes on a weekly basis? I do. And if JMac is running and finishing top 10 on a consistent basis, then you know they have some speed. The 1 car have lacked speed on the 1.5 milers this year, but we have not raced on one since Kentucky though. And Ganassi have found something in the meantime. However, he have been good on the 1.5 milers. As he has compiled an 17.0 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 69.9 driver rating. Not great numbers, but remember tracks like Michigan and Darlington are also intermediate racetracks. However, they aren't 1.5 mile tracks. So the results may not translate. But they were ran on recently he was able to top 10 in both of those races. His Chicagoland record is pretty good as well. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 12.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 94.3 driver rating. This isn't his best racetrack overall, but he did finish 9th here in 2014. He was very strong in that race. Started 11th, but charged to the front and took the lead under green while leading 32 laps. He contended for a top 5 that day, before setting for 9th place finish. He wasn't great here last season and only finished 16th. But as I mentioned, the Ganassi cars are running much better right now. Headed into the weekend, I think we can expect an top 15 finish from JMac. He won't be a top 5 pick, but he is consistent enough where that lone will give him value in most formats. However, I do believe he can have top 10 potential. Given he shows speed in practice and qualifying.
2-Brad Keselowski: I really like Brad Keselowski's chances in this first round to score least one win, as they all are great tracks for him. It will all start at Chicago for him. Only a few drivers has been able to outperform him in recent seasons at this venue. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 4.5 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 106.4 driver rating. Since being in the #2 car (2012 season and beyond), Keselowski have been a stud at this place. As he has posted 5 straight Top 8 finishes at this track. Including 2 wins over the past 4 races. He won in 2012 and 2014. If that trend continues, he will be back in victory here in 2016. Last season here, he only finished 8th place. It was his worst performance at this track since being in the #2 car. Not only his worst performance, but the first time in that 5-race span where he didn't lead a lap. Biggest surprise about Keselowski at Chicago? He have had his worst finishes when he started up front. Crazy, but true. In 2015, 2013 and 2011, he started inside the top 6. Which have resulted in finishes of 8th, 7th and 5th. The two races he have won (2012 and 2014), he started from 13th and 25th. His overall performances for those races were far much more impressive than the races he started up front, as well. Keselowski also have been very strong on the 1.5 milers, too. On 1.5 mile tracks in length, he has compiled 7.3 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 103.6 driver rating. He ranked 3rd in the series in terms of average finish, 4th in average running position, 8th in fastest laps and 5th in driver rating. Across the board, Keselowski have been a strong fantasy performer this season. And when you look at his number recently this season, you will like him even more! As over the past 6 Sprint Cup races, he has posted 4 Top 4 finishes. To be fair, he should've finished top 4 at Darlington as well. But he had to make extra pit stops which cost him track position (twice). Otherwise, he pretty much had the second-best car in that race. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 5 fantasy pick with upside to go to victory lane on Sunday!
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon continues to have a pretty solid year and it's now up to him to carry the banner for RCR. As Ryan Newman missed the chase cut-off! So what should you expect from him this weekend at Chicagoland? Hard to say, as he has been inconsistent this season. However, the 1.5 mile tracks has been a strength for him though. On the 1.5 milers this season, he has compiled 11.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 84.0 driver rating. In 6 races on this type of track this season, he has posted an finish of 16 or better in 5 of those races. The one he didn't? Texas. Why? He wrecked while running inside the top 10. Team was able to save their day, but the racecar was then pretty much a non-factor and he finished 19th place. To be noted, he was a top 10 contender for almost the entire race. Dillon track record at Chicgoland isn't that great, nor is too relevant with only two starts to his name. However, he did finish 16th in his debut in 2014 and started 5th in last season's race. Despite starting in 5th, he managed to finish dead last though. Austin Dillon isn't the most desirable fantasy option lurking out there, but he does two things very well: 1) Find ways to get consistent finishes. 2) Improve throughout a weekend. Those two traits can be traced back before he got his shot in the Truck series. This season has been no difference. Early in the season, he posted higher finishes but seems to be more consistent since the start of July though. Since Daytona (he's finished 7th), he has posted 9 Top 16 finishes over his past 10 Sprint Cup series races. With 7 of those races ending in 13th place or better. Including his past 4 races! How does that compared to the first 16 races this season? He finished 19th or worse in 7 of 16 races. Only once over his past 10 races. Consistency can go along way in your fantasy nascar lineups. Headed into the weekend, I view Dillon as a top 15 fantasy option. With ability to finish somewhere around 9th-12 place if everything goes according to plan.
4-Kevin Harvick: Kevin Harvick wasn't quite as strong as I was expecting him to be at Richmond, but make no mistake that he will show up as a favorite this weekend. Chicagoland has been a great track in recent seasons and he will be a dominant force, no doubt! Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 16.7 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 106.2 driver rating. He finished 42nd in last season race. He had a very strong racecar and ran inside the top 5 for much of the afternoon. Until he got a tire rub shortly after a restart and then his day went south quickly. Instead of pitting and getting new tires, and losing a lap or two. He ended up completely cutting his tire and destroying his racecar. Prior to that, he has posted back-to-back top 5 finishes at Chicagoland. He always been a elite performer at this racetrack. Over the past 5 races here, he has posted 4 Top 12 finishes, including 3 Top 5 finishes overall. In 15 career starts at this track, he has posted 8 Top 5 finishes. When looking at it, he has been Top 5 or bust in his career at Chicagoland. In 15 career starts, he has posted 13 finishes inside the top 5 or 17th or worse. Only twice has he finished between 6th and 16th place. Those finishes were 10th (in 2004) and 12th (in 2012). Harvick also been a stud all season on this type of track. On 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has posted series-best 6.0 average finish with 2nd-best 5.3 average running position and 2nd-best driver rating of 116.6. He also ranked 2nd in the series in laps led (261) and fastest laps (183). Across the board, Kevin Harvick is a top 2 fantasy option and it is not really even close. Harvick may not always have the best car or a dominating car. But you can almost expect him to be contending for a top 5 finish, regardless where he starts from. I expect the exact same thing this weekend, but I think he will get it done and go to victory lane.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne once again missed the chase for an 3rd straight season, despite his best efforts of the season at Darlington and regular season-finale Richmond. And I am not really surprised, I didn't expect too much him this season. The 5 car have had more speed of late and that should be good for fantasy purpose. However, he didn't make the chase so it questionable how good he will here on out. He has potential, but far from set in stone. He been decent at this track. Over the past 3 races here, he has compiled 16.3 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 80.8 driver rating. Kahne haven't been the greatest here throughout his career. But since start of the 2008 season, he only have finished once worse than 15th place at Chicagoland. Of course that was last season, when he finished in 24th. Prior to finishing 24th in last season's race, he has posted finishes of 13th, 12th and 3rd in the #5 car. Solid finishes, right? You bet they are solid finishes. Bad news? He has finished worse in every start since his debut, where he finished 3rd. How about more good news? I don't think this trend will continue for Kahne, as I don't see him finishing worse than around 18th unless he has some type of issue. He also been good on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. As he has posted an 15.5 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 69.8 driver rating. Not great ''performance'' numbers, but he has been running pretty well of late. Over the past 6 Sprint Cup races, he has finished 15th or better in 5 of 6 races. Lone poor finish? Watkins Glenn (20th place). Only twice since Charlotte (22nd place) has Kahne finished worse than 20th. Including 9 of those 13 races ending in 15th or better. Including 4 straight Top 14 finishes over his past 4 races this season. That isn't anything special, but for Kahne it is pretty huge. Headed into the weekend, I say he's nothing more than 15th place fantasy option. But he may hover closer to the top 12, if his team gives him a quality car.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is having a great season so far this season and is coming off a win at Richmond. Bad news for the field? He have posted 8 straight Top 10 finishes and have been very solid lately at Chicagoland as well. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 3.5 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 102.9 driver rating. He won this race last season, despite only leading 9 laps. Over the past 7 races at this track, he has posted only 4 Top 10 finishes. In fact in 10 career races, he has posted only 4. The other 6 races has ended in 14th or worse. He has struggled this season on the 1.5 mile tracks though. As he has compiled 17.2 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 81.5 driver rating. Not very great numbers overall, but he obviously have made some major gains since the most recent 1.5 mile racetrack (at Kentucky). Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 fantasy option. He isn't my first choice as a fantasy option, however he is definitely someone who I really like. If he practices well, he will easily be further up on my fantasy radar. Personally I think he is going to be one of the drivers to beat, as Joe Gibbs Racing should show up with extremely fast cars.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy finished inside the the top 10, after failing to do so in his prior 3 races. Rowdy didn't perform overly well in the final couple races in the regular season, but don't expect that to continue in the chase though. He will turn it on, starting this weekend at Chicagoland. He been very good at this track. Over the past 2 races here, he has compiled 8.0 average finish with 4.5 average running position and 121.2 driver rating. Since joining JGR, he has posted 5 Top 9 finishes in 8 races. Including an win back in his debut in the #18 car. He also been very good recently as well. As he has knocked off 4 straight top 10 finishes. However, he has finished worse in every start dating back to 2013. Good news? He finished 9th last season, despite leading nearly half of the laps. He also been very strong on the 1.5 milers this season. As he has compiled an 9.0 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 105.7 driver rating. That including the Charlotte's race, so his numbers would be much better without that race. Otherwise, his average finish is like 4.1, if my math is correct. Headed into the weekend, I would view Rowdy as one of the heavy favorites for Sunday's race.
19-Carl Edwards - Edwards is having himself a up and down season so far in 2016. He started off extremely consistent in the first 10 or so races, but since he has been pretty questionable fantasy selection it seems. As over the past 9 Sprint Cup races, he has posted 5 finishes of 15th or worse. Including 4 of those finishes ending in 19th or worse overall. Including back-to-back at Darlington and Richmond. That's tough to deal with, if you are someone wanting to buy into some Edwards' stock entering the chase. However, I do have some good news though. He has always been pretty solid at Chicagoland. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 11.0 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 87.7 driver rating. Over his past 6 races on this track (dating back to 2010), he has posted 4 Top 11 finishes. Including 3 Top 5 finishes in that span. His best finish came in last season's race, where he ended up in 2nd place to teammate Denny Hamlin. He also has been very strong on the 1.5 milers this season. JGR been at their on this type of track as whole and this weekend will be no difference. On 1.5 mile racetracks this season, Edwards has compiled 10.2 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 98.8 driver rating. He have had some misleading finishes on the 1.5 mile tracks such as Atlanta (wreck - finished 20th; ran top 10), Charlotte (finished 11th; had a flat tire under green). Honestly not sure if he would had contended for a top 5 at Charlotte, but a top 10 would definitely in reach in my opinion. Just missed opportunities on Edwards part. Headed into the weekend, I view Edwards just on the outside looking inside the top 5.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is having a good year, but he had some drama at Richmond with Brad Keselowski. The question on many people minds are will this boil into the chase, like last season with Logano? I personally don't think so, I believe Kenseth learned his lesson from that. However, I wouldn't be shocked if he tried something if he get eliminated though. He been good at Chicagoland since joining JGR. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 7.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 94.2 driver rating. Since joining JGR, he has finished inside the top 10 in every race. Not only that, but he also has posted 2 Top 5 finishes as well. Including a win in his debut at Chicagoland in the #20 car. He also finished 5th in last season's race. Kenseth always been pretty solid here from a career point of view. In 15 career races at this track, Kenseth has posted 11 Top 14 finishes. Including 7 Top 10 finishes. About half of those top 10 finishes has been over the past 3 seasons. Headed into the weekend, I view Matt Kenseth as a top 10 fantasy option. He does have upside to contend for a top 5 finish. But I just don't see it from him, he doesn't run up front often enough to warrant that sort of upside (this season) in my opinion.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney missed the chase, but missing the chase won't really effect him that much though. Since he doesn't have any teammates, he won't have to worry about giving up better equipment to his teammates. I guess, the Penske cars are technically his teammates. But they get better cars to begin though. So what to expect from the 21 this weekend? Hard to say really, but I don't really expect too much from him honestly. He haven't been bad on the 1.5 milers this season, but he is far from a lock though. On 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has compiled 20.0 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 79.8 driver rating. Like I said not great, but not too bad either. He haven't made any starts at this track, so there isn't data to go on from past seasons either. Headed into the weekend, I would view Blaney as a top 20 fantasy option. Beyond that? I am not really sure until I see some practice out of the No.21 team. But I am willing to bet, they are good enough to be near the top 10 in terms of speed though.
22-Joey Logano: Logano isn't having the season, he did last season but the Penske Fords have enough speed this season to contend for the championship in my opinion. It will start this weekend at Chcigoland. Where Logano has been pretty good at since joining the #22 team. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 5.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 102.8 driver rating. He finished inside the top 6 in his past 2 races here and probably should've made it straight three races. However after leading 32 laps in 2013 race, he had a sour engine soil his day. He was leading up until he had the engine issues. He had those issues after a pretty length race-delay. The race was about 35 laps old when he had those issues. Over the past 4 races at this track, he has posted 3 top 7 finishes in that span. He been pretty good, despite no wins so far in his career at this track. He have had multiple poor races on this type of track in 2016. Including the past 2 of 3 races ending in wrecks for the No.22 team. So I am not going to go into his seasonal data on the 1.5 milers. Just know the 22 car has been pretty fast all season on this type of track. Logano headed into the race is probably a top 5 to top 10 fantasy pick. Logano downside this season would be, he doesn't lead as many laps. I really like Logano in standard fantasy leagues where finish position is important. But if he doesn't start on the pole, I don't know if he holds too much value in deeper fantasy formats.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott will be one of 16 driver who will contend for a championship, but he performed very poor at Richmond. A track that I thought he would perform very well at, but he didn't to my surprise. He should be better at Chicgoland, despite never making as start here in the Sprint Cup Series. He has been good on the 1.5 milers this season overall. On 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 16.5 average running position and 14.7 average running position and 87.6 driver rating. He been very on the 1.5 mile racetracks and his wrecks at Kentucky and Atlanta only further proves how good he been this season. If you take out those races (Kentucky and Atlanta), he has compiled 7.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 89.7 driver rating. Very good numbers, but remember all of those races came earlier in the season as well. Based on what he know, I would say this will be a good place for Elliott to run well at. He should be a top 15 fantasy pick with potential to finish inside the top 10.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is very much under almost everyone's radars, but he could be a force to reckon with in the upcoming chase though. The 41 team haven't had a lot of speed this season and that's concerning to me overall. The 41 car's best fantasy asset will be being consistent, if he cannot be consistent, then he's won't hold much fantasy value in most fantasy formats. Simply because he doesn't have enough upside most weekend to contend for top 5 finishes like his teammate Kevin Harvick. He should be a top 10 guy at Chicagoland. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 5.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 107.4 driver rating. Kurt have performed very well at this track recently. Over the past 5 races overall, he has posted 4 top 8 finishes. In 15 career starts, he has posted 9 Top 8 finishes. The bad news? He has finished 26th or worse in other 5 of 6 races. Lone finish between 9th-25th place? 17th place finish back in 2009. I really like Kurt Busch as nice dark horse for this weekend's race. He could surprise a good number of people.
42-Kyle Larson: My dark horse for the championship is out of the Ganassi camp in Kyle Larson. He enters the chase with a great deal of confidence. One thing I have learn about Larson in his Cup career is, when he believes in himself that's when he is most dangerous. I think Larson's biggest downfall with being staying consistent. I highly doubt he can ride this hot streak throughout the chase and I am willing to bet, he has a stumble at a track we don't expect. How will he fair at Chicgoland? Basing it the numbers, he should be a very strong contender on Sunday. Over the past 2 races here, he has compiled 5.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 100.5 driver rating. Larson has been running quite well lately and I think he takes that momentum and puts it to great use. I think two things will heavily depend on if Larson contends for a win: 1) If he qualifies up front or not. That has been a major problem for him this season. He needs to start up front. 2) How fast the Ganassi cars unload. When the 42 car has unloaded fast in recent weeks, it has led to very good things for him and his fantasy owners. Headed into the race, I would view Larson as top 10 fantasy pick with upside to finish inside the top 5.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson should be a good pick for this weekend's race as he has been a good driver here for pretty much forever. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 11.5 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 100.7 driver rating. It has been a while since have been to victory lane at this track. But in 14 career starts, Johnson has compiled 12 Top 12 finishes. With over half of those races ending inside the top 5 (7). He been pretty good more recently as well. Over the past 5 races at this track, he has compiled 5 straight top 12 finishes. However, he haven't had a top 10 finish since finishing 5th back in 2013 though. I would like Johnson a lot more, if he would had been more consistent in the summer months. The HMS cars seems to be much faster than they were a couple months ago, but there still a lot of unknowns regarding the 48 team and Jimmie Johnson. In my opinion, they are nothing beyond top 10 contenders for now.
78-Martin Truex Jr: The 78 team is hitting their stride right now and everyone should be very scared as that raceteam have a shit load of speed in their cars. More bad news? There are 5 1.5 milers in the chase and the 78 car has dominated this type of track. On the 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has compiled 8.2 average finish (4th-best) with 4.8 average running position (series-best) and 123.5 driver rating (series-best). His numbers on the 1.5 mile tracks this season have been just impressive, even though a lot of those numbers come from the Charlotte's race. Still he dominated Texas and Kansas races as well. Even though, he didn't win either of those races. He been pretty good at Chicagoland recently. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 13.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 90.2 driver rating. He been consistent over the past 6 races here. In those 6 races, he has posted 4 Top 14 finishes. Including 3 of the past 4 races, he has finished inside the top 14. I love Truex this weekend and would be disappointed if he didn't contend for a top 5 finish. As always my big concern is he can finish out the deal? He have the speed to do it, he just needs some luck on his side now.
***All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Preview -
1-JMac: I don't think it a fluke that the Chip Ganassi Racing cars have a ton of speed right now. Over the past month and a half, they have consistently challenged up towards the front. Remember how strong they in the 2014 chase? Contending for multiple top 5 and top 10 finishes on a weekly basis? I do. And if JMac is running and finishing top 10 on a consistent basis, then you know they have some speed. The 1 car have lacked speed on the 1.5 milers this year, but we have not raced on one since Kentucky though. And Ganassi have found something in the meantime. However, he have been good on the 1.5 milers. As he has compiled an 17.0 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 69.9 driver rating. Not great numbers, but remember tracks like Michigan and Darlington are also intermediate racetracks. However, they aren't 1.5 mile tracks. So the results may not translate. But they were ran on recently he was able to top 10 in both of those races. His Chicagoland record is pretty good as well. Over the past 2 races here, he have compiled 12.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 94.3 driver rating. This isn't his best racetrack overall, but he did finish 9th here in 2014. He was very strong in that race. Started 11th, but charged to the front and took the lead under green while leading 32 laps. He contended for a top 5 that day, before setting for 9th place finish. He wasn't great here last season and only finished 16th. But as I mentioned, the Ganassi cars are running much better right now. Headed into the weekend, I think we can expect an top 15 finish from JMac. He won't be a top 5 pick, but he is consistent enough where that lone will give him value in most formats. However, I do believe he can have top 10 potential. Given he shows speed in practice and qualifying.
2-Brad Keselowski: I really like Brad Keselowski's chances in this first round to score least one win, as they all are great tracks for him. It will all start at Chicago for him. Only a few drivers has been able to outperform him in recent seasons at this venue. Over the past 2 seasons here, he have compiled 4.5 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 106.4 driver rating. Since being in the #2 car (2012 season and beyond), Keselowski have been a stud at this place. As he has posted 5 straight Top 8 finishes at this track. Including 2 wins over the past 4 races. He won in 2012 and 2014. If that trend continues, he will be back in victory here in 2016. Last season here, he only finished 8th place. It was his worst performance at this track since being in the #2 car. Not only his worst performance, but the first time in that 5-race span where he didn't lead a lap. Biggest surprise about Keselowski at Chicago? He have had his worst finishes when he started up front. Crazy, but true. In 2015, 2013 and 2011, he started inside the top 6. Which have resulted in finishes of 8th, 7th and 5th. The two races he have won (2012 and 2014), he started from 13th and 25th. His overall performances for those races were far much more impressive than the races he started up front, as well. Keselowski also have been very strong on the 1.5 milers, too. On 1.5 mile tracks in length, he has compiled 7.3 average finish with 8.8 average running position and 103.6 driver rating. He ranked 3rd in the series in terms of average finish, 4th in average running position, 8th in fastest laps and 5th in driver rating. Across the board, Keselowski have been a strong fantasy performer this season. And when you look at his number recently this season, you will like him even more! As over the past 6 Sprint Cup races, he has posted 4 Top 4 finishes. To be fair, he should've finished top 4 at Darlington as well. But he had to make extra pit stops which cost him track position (twice). Otherwise, he pretty much had the second-best car in that race. Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 5 fantasy pick with upside to go to victory lane on Sunday!
3-Austin Dillon: Austin Dillon continues to have a pretty solid year and it's now up to him to carry the banner for RCR. As Ryan Newman missed the chase cut-off! So what should you expect from him this weekend at Chicagoland? Hard to say, as he has been inconsistent this season. However, the 1.5 mile tracks has been a strength for him though. On the 1.5 milers this season, he has compiled 11.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 84.0 driver rating. In 6 races on this type of track this season, he has posted an finish of 16 or better in 5 of those races. The one he didn't? Texas. Why? He wrecked while running inside the top 10. Team was able to save their day, but the racecar was then pretty much a non-factor and he finished 19th place. To be noted, he was a top 10 contender for almost the entire race. Dillon track record at Chicgoland isn't that great, nor is too relevant with only two starts to his name. However, he did finish 16th in his debut in 2014 and started 5th in last season's race. Despite starting in 5th, he managed to finish dead last though. Austin Dillon isn't the most desirable fantasy option lurking out there, but he does two things very well: 1) Find ways to get consistent finishes. 2) Improve throughout a weekend. Those two traits can be traced back before he got his shot in the Truck series. This season has been no difference. Early in the season, he posted higher finishes but seems to be more consistent since the start of July though. Since Daytona (he's finished 7th), he has posted 9 Top 16 finishes over his past 10 Sprint Cup series races. With 7 of those races ending in 13th place or better. Including his past 4 races! How does that compared to the first 16 races this season? He finished 19th or worse in 7 of 16 races. Only once over his past 10 races. Consistency can go along way in your fantasy nascar lineups. Headed into the weekend, I view Dillon as a top 15 fantasy option. With ability to finish somewhere around 9th-12 place if everything goes according to plan.
4-Kevin Harvick: Kevin Harvick wasn't quite as strong as I was expecting him to be at Richmond, but make no mistake that he will show up as a favorite this weekend. Chicagoland has been a great track in recent seasons and he will be a dominant force, no doubt! Over the past 3 races here, he have compiled 16.7 average finish with 12.7 average running position and 106.2 driver rating. He finished 42nd in last season race. He had a very strong racecar and ran inside the top 5 for much of the afternoon. Until he got a tire rub shortly after a restart and then his day went south quickly. Instead of pitting and getting new tires, and losing a lap or two. He ended up completely cutting his tire and destroying his racecar. Prior to that, he has posted back-to-back top 5 finishes at Chicagoland. He always been a elite performer at this racetrack. Over the past 5 races here, he has posted 4 Top 12 finishes, including 3 Top 5 finishes overall. In 15 career starts at this track, he has posted 8 Top 5 finishes. When looking at it, he has been Top 5 or bust in his career at Chicagoland. In 15 career starts, he has posted 13 finishes inside the top 5 or 17th or worse. Only twice has he finished between 6th and 16th place. Those finishes were 10th (in 2004) and 12th (in 2012). Harvick also been a stud all season on this type of track. On 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has posted series-best 6.0 average finish with 2nd-best 5.3 average running position and 2nd-best driver rating of 116.6. He also ranked 2nd in the series in laps led (261) and fastest laps (183). Across the board, Kevin Harvick is a top 2 fantasy option and it is not really even close. Harvick may not always have the best car or a dominating car. But you can almost expect him to be contending for a top 5 finish, regardless where he starts from. I expect the exact same thing this weekend, but I think he will get it done and go to victory lane.
5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne once again missed the chase for an 3rd straight season, despite his best efforts of the season at Darlington and regular season-finale Richmond. And I am not really surprised, I didn't expect too much him this season. The 5 car have had more speed of late and that should be good for fantasy purpose. However, he didn't make the chase so it questionable how good he will here on out. He has potential, but far from set in stone. He been decent at this track. Over the past 3 races here, he has compiled 16.3 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 80.8 driver rating. Kahne haven't been the greatest here throughout his career. But since start of the 2008 season, he only have finished once worse than 15th place at Chicagoland. Of course that was last season, when he finished in 24th. Prior to finishing 24th in last season's race, he has posted finishes of 13th, 12th and 3rd in the #5 car. Solid finishes, right? You bet they are solid finishes. Bad news? He has finished worse in every start since his debut, where he finished 3rd. How about more good news? I don't think this trend will continue for Kahne, as I don't see him finishing worse than around 18th unless he has some type of issue. He also been good on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. As he has posted an 15.5 average finish with 19.0 average running position and 69.8 driver rating. Not great ''performance'' numbers, but he has been running pretty well of late. Over the past 6 Sprint Cup races, he has finished 15th or better in 5 of 6 races. Lone poor finish? Watkins Glenn (20th place). Only twice since Charlotte (22nd place) has Kahne finished worse than 20th. Including 9 of those 13 races ending in 15th or better. Including 4 straight Top 14 finishes over his past 4 races this season. That isn't anything special, but for Kahne it is pretty huge. Headed into the weekend, I say he's nothing more than 15th place fantasy option. But he may hover closer to the top 12, if his team gives him a quality car.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is having a great season so far this season and is coming off a win at Richmond. Bad news for the field? He have posted 8 straight Top 10 finishes and have been very solid lately at Chicagoland as well. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 3.5 average finish with 15.5 average running position and 102.9 driver rating. He won this race last season, despite only leading 9 laps. Over the past 7 races at this track, he has posted only 4 Top 10 finishes. In fact in 10 career races, he has posted only 4. The other 6 races has ended in 14th or worse. He has struggled this season on the 1.5 mile tracks though. As he has compiled 17.2 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 81.5 driver rating. Not very great numbers overall, but he obviously have made some major gains since the most recent 1.5 mile racetrack (at Kentucky). Headed into the weekend, I view him as a top 10 fantasy option. He isn't my first choice as a fantasy option, however he is definitely someone who I really like. If he practices well, he will easily be further up on my fantasy radar. Personally I think he is going to be one of the drivers to beat, as Joe Gibbs Racing should show up with extremely fast cars.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy finished inside the the top 10, after failing to do so in his prior 3 races. Rowdy didn't perform overly well in the final couple races in the regular season, but don't expect that to continue in the chase though. He will turn it on, starting this weekend at Chicagoland. He been very good at this track. Over the past 2 races here, he has compiled 8.0 average finish with 4.5 average running position and 121.2 driver rating. Since joining JGR, he has posted 5 Top 9 finishes in 8 races. Including an win back in his debut in the #18 car. He also been very good recently as well. As he has knocked off 4 straight top 10 finishes. However, he has finished worse in every start dating back to 2013. Good news? He finished 9th last season, despite leading nearly half of the laps. He also been very strong on the 1.5 milers this season. As he has compiled an 9.0 average finish with 7.5 average running position and 105.7 driver rating. That including the Charlotte's race, so his numbers would be much better without that race. Otherwise, his average finish is like 4.1, if my math is correct. Headed into the weekend, I would view Rowdy as one of the heavy favorites for Sunday's race.
19-Carl Edwards - Edwards is having himself a up and down season so far in 2016. He started off extremely consistent in the first 10 or so races, but since he has been pretty questionable fantasy selection it seems. As over the past 9 Sprint Cup races, he has posted 5 finishes of 15th or worse. Including 4 of those finishes ending in 19th or worse overall. Including back-to-back at Darlington and Richmond. That's tough to deal with, if you are someone wanting to buy into some Edwards' stock entering the chase. However, I do have some good news though. He has always been pretty solid at Chicagoland. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 11.0 average finish with 14.5 average running position and 87.7 driver rating. Over his past 6 races on this track (dating back to 2010), he has posted 4 Top 11 finishes. Including 3 Top 5 finishes in that span. His best finish came in last season's race, where he ended up in 2nd place to teammate Denny Hamlin. He also has been very strong on the 1.5 milers this season. JGR been at their on this type of track as whole and this weekend will be no difference. On 1.5 mile racetracks this season, Edwards has compiled 10.2 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 98.8 driver rating. He have had some misleading finishes on the 1.5 mile tracks such as Atlanta (wreck - finished 20th; ran top 10), Charlotte (finished 11th; had a flat tire under green). Honestly not sure if he would had contended for a top 5 at Charlotte, but a top 10 would definitely in reach in my opinion. Just missed opportunities on Edwards part. Headed into the weekend, I view Edwards just on the outside looking inside the top 5.
20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth is having a good year, but he had some drama at Richmond with Brad Keselowski. The question on many people minds are will this boil into the chase, like last season with Logano? I personally don't think so, I believe Kenseth learned his lesson from that. However, I wouldn't be shocked if he tried something if he get eliminated though. He been good at Chicagoland since joining JGR. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 7.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 94.2 driver rating. Since joining JGR, he has finished inside the top 10 in every race. Not only that, but he also has posted 2 Top 5 finishes as well. Including a win in his debut at Chicagoland in the #20 car. He also finished 5th in last season's race. Kenseth always been pretty solid here from a career point of view. In 15 career races at this track, Kenseth has posted 11 Top 14 finishes. Including 7 Top 10 finishes. About half of those top 10 finishes has been over the past 3 seasons. Headed into the weekend, I view Matt Kenseth as a top 10 fantasy option. He does have upside to contend for a top 5 finish. But I just don't see it from him, he doesn't run up front often enough to warrant that sort of upside (this season) in my opinion.
21-Ryan Blaney: Blaney missed the chase, but missing the chase won't really effect him that much though. Since he doesn't have any teammates, he won't have to worry about giving up better equipment to his teammates. I guess, the Penske cars are technically his teammates. But they get better cars to begin though. So what to expect from the 21 this weekend? Hard to say really, but I don't really expect too much from him honestly. He haven't been bad on the 1.5 milers this season, but he is far from a lock though. On 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has compiled 20.0 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 79.8 driver rating. Like I said not great, but not too bad either. He haven't made any starts at this track, so there isn't data to go on from past seasons either. Headed into the weekend, I would view Blaney as a top 20 fantasy option. Beyond that? I am not really sure until I see some practice out of the No.21 team. But I am willing to bet, they are good enough to be near the top 10 in terms of speed though.
22-Joey Logano: Logano isn't having the season, he did last season but the Penske Fords have enough speed this season to contend for the championship in my opinion. It will start this weekend at Chcigoland. Where Logano has been pretty good at since joining the #22 team. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 5.0 average finish with 8.5 average running position and 102.8 driver rating. He finished inside the top 6 in his past 2 races here and probably should've made it straight three races. However after leading 32 laps in 2013 race, he had a sour engine soil his day. He was leading up until he had the engine issues. He had those issues after a pretty length race-delay. The race was about 35 laps old when he had those issues. Over the past 4 races at this track, he has posted 3 top 7 finishes in that span. He been pretty good, despite no wins so far in his career at this track. He have had multiple poor races on this type of track in 2016. Including the past 2 of 3 races ending in wrecks for the No.22 team. So I am not going to go into his seasonal data on the 1.5 milers. Just know the 22 car has been pretty fast all season on this type of track. Logano headed into the race is probably a top 5 to top 10 fantasy pick. Logano downside this season would be, he doesn't lead as many laps. I really like Logano in standard fantasy leagues where finish position is important. But if he doesn't start on the pole, I don't know if he holds too much value in deeper fantasy formats.
24-Chase Elliott: Elliott will be one of 16 driver who will contend for a championship, but he performed very poor at Richmond. A track that I thought he would perform very well at, but he didn't to my surprise. He should be better at Chicgoland, despite never making as start here in the Sprint Cup Series. He has been good on the 1.5 milers this season overall. On 1.5 mile tracks, he has compiled 16.5 average running position and 14.7 average running position and 87.6 driver rating. He been very on the 1.5 mile racetracks and his wrecks at Kentucky and Atlanta only further proves how good he been this season. If you take out those races (Kentucky and Atlanta), he has compiled 7.5 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 89.7 driver rating. Very good numbers, but remember all of those races came earlier in the season as well. Based on what he know, I would say this will be a good place for Elliott to run well at. He should be a top 15 fantasy pick with potential to finish inside the top 10.
41-Kurt Busch: Kurt Busch is very much under almost everyone's radars, but he could be a force to reckon with in the upcoming chase though. The 41 team haven't had a lot of speed this season and that's concerning to me overall. The 41 car's best fantasy asset will be being consistent, if he cannot be consistent, then he's won't hold much fantasy value in most fantasy formats. Simply because he doesn't have enough upside most weekend to contend for top 5 finishes like his teammate Kevin Harvick. He should be a top 10 guy at Chicagoland. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 5.5 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 107.4 driver rating. Kurt have performed very well at this track recently. Over the past 5 races overall, he has posted 4 top 8 finishes. In 15 career starts, he has posted 9 Top 8 finishes. The bad news? He has finished 26th or worse in other 5 of 6 races. Lone finish between 9th-25th place? 17th place finish back in 2009. I really like Kurt Busch as nice dark horse for this weekend's race. He could surprise a good number of people.
42-Kyle Larson: My dark horse for the championship is out of the Ganassi camp in Kyle Larson. He enters the chase with a great deal of confidence. One thing I have learn about Larson in his Cup career is, when he believes in himself that's when he is most dangerous. I think Larson's biggest downfall with being staying consistent. I highly doubt he can ride this hot streak throughout the chase and I am willing to bet, he has a stumble at a track we don't expect. How will he fair at Chicgoland? Basing it the numbers, he should be a very strong contender on Sunday. Over the past 2 races here, he has compiled 5.0 average finish with 10.5 average running position and 100.5 driver rating. Larson has been running quite well lately and I think he takes that momentum and puts it to great use. I think two things will heavily depend on if Larson contends for a win: 1) If he qualifies up front or not. That has been a major problem for him this season. He needs to start up front. 2) How fast the Ganassi cars unload. When the 42 car has unloaded fast in recent weeks, it has led to very good things for him and his fantasy owners. Headed into the race, I would view Larson as top 10 fantasy pick with upside to finish inside the top 5.
48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson should be a good pick for this weekend's race as he has been a good driver here for pretty much forever. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 11.5 average finish with 8.0 average running position and 100.7 driver rating. It has been a while since have been to victory lane at this track. But in 14 career starts, Johnson has compiled 12 Top 12 finishes. With over half of those races ending inside the top 5 (7). He been pretty good more recently as well. Over the past 5 races at this track, he has compiled 5 straight top 12 finishes. However, he haven't had a top 10 finish since finishing 5th back in 2013 though. I would like Johnson a lot more, if he would had been more consistent in the summer months. The HMS cars seems to be much faster than they were a couple months ago, but there still a lot of unknowns regarding the 48 team and Jimmie Johnson. In my opinion, they are nothing beyond top 10 contenders for now.
78-Martin Truex Jr: The 78 team is hitting their stride right now and everyone should be very scared as that raceteam have a shit load of speed in their cars. More bad news? There are 5 1.5 milers in the chase and the 78 car has dominated this type of track. On the 1.5 mile tracks this season, he has compiled 8.2 average finish (4th-best) with 4.8 average running position (series-best) and 123.5 driver rating (series-best). His numbers on the 1.5 mile tracks this season have been just impressive, even though a lot of those numbers come from the Charlotte's race. Still he dominated Texas and Kansas races as well. Even though, he didn't win either of those races. He been pretty good at Chicagoland recently. Over the past 2 seasons here, he has compiled 13.5 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 90.2 driver rating. He been consistent over the past 6 races here. In those 6 races, he has posted 4 Top 14 finishes. Including 3 of the past 4 races, he has finished inside the top 14. I love Truex this weekend and would be disappointed if he didn't contend for a top 5 finish. As always my big concern is he can finish out the deal? He have the speed to do it, he just needs some luck on his side now.
***All stats from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
