Tuesday, November 22, 2016

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Brad Keselowski

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Driver Name: Brad Keselowski

Car #: 2

Make: Ford

Aka: Brad K

Season Debut: 2010 (First-full season)

Number of Championships: 1

# of Career starts: 269

# of Career Poles: 12

# of Career Wins: 21

# of Career Top 5s: 75

# of Career Top 10s: 126

# of Career DNFs: 15

# of Career laps led: 4832

Career Average Finish: 14.3 

Career Average Start: 13.9 

# of 2016 Wins: 4

# of 2016 Top 5s: 16

# of 2016 Top 10s: 22 

# of 2016 Poles: 1

# of 2016 DNFs: 3 

# of 2016 Laps led: 549  

2016 Average Finish: 11.5

2016 Average Start:  9.6

2016 Recap: Keselowski had a strong 2016 run, he was consistently fast and contended for top 5 finishes often throughout the season. His big problem was finding trouble on pit road, the #2 car was penalized often it seemed. Which cost him some quality finishes during the season. Overall Keselowski had a up and down year in terms of stats. He compiled 16 Top 5 finishes which only ranked 2nd to his 2014 season where he had 17 of them. Which is 7 more top 5 finishes than 2015 (9), but he had less top 10 finishes than he had in 2015. He only posted 22 Top 10 finishes this season which is 3 less than in 2015 (25). His wins (4) went up from 2015 season (only had 1), but his average finish went down from 11.1 to 11.4. Also he had less poles and less laps led in 2016 as well. Despite that, he was nearly a lock for a top 10 finish on any given weekend! Hard to hate on Keselowski accomplished in 2016, with that said it could had been a bit better, if he was able to finish at Talladega.

Strong Tracks: Kentucky, Las Vegas, Texas and Chicagoland

Weak Tracks: Atlanta and Sonoma

Additional Info: It hard to pinpoint one thing that Keselowski does well, because he is all over the map. Almost every type of track, he will have a chance to perform. With that said, I think his greatest asset is his consistency. It has became his trade mark since joining Penske. Especially over the past 3 seasons. He has produced 3 straight 12.6 average finish seasons in a row, including 11 wins in that span. On top of that, he has posted 16 and 17 Top 5 finishes in 2 of the past 3 seasons. Both ranked as 1-2 in Keselowski's career regards to top 5 finishes. Also has 3 straight seasons of 20 Top 10 finishes. Including career-high 25 in 2015. He also has 10 poles and over 2,000 laps led over the past three season. My point being? Keselowski right now has the right blend of consistency and upside to be something special for the years to come.

Yahoo Grouping Prediction: A-list Grouping Tier

Overall Value Prediction: Consistent front runner

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Under ''Overall Value Prediction'', I listed him as a consistent front runner. And that's exactly what he is, too! Keselowski get majority of his fantasy value from his consistent finishes. I do believe that will be a common theme in 2017 as well. Now, don't get me wrong here. He will contend for race wins as well. I have doubts about that, not one bit. However, we cannot depend on him to deliver wins though. As most weekends, I would expect him to not have the fastest car or even a top 5 car at times. But his consistency will keep him relevant. Question is when will Keselowski be a true race contender? I say at the tracks he has a great history at. Places like Watkins Glenn, Las Vegas, Chicagoland, Texas, Kentucky and to lesser extent the plates tracks. He also will have great potential at tracks like New Hampshire and Bristol. All-in-all, I expect another great year from Keselowski. His floor is likely a top 10 driver every week, while his ceiling is probably unlimited. To me, the sky is the limit for him. If he stays consistent, he should flirt with 10 to 15 Top 5 finishes and 20 to 23 Top 10 finishes, along with 1-3 wins as well.

**All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18