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Fantasy Nascar Update -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - People said that Kevin Harvick wouldn't be a contender at Homstead and I nearly died laughing. From fantasy point of view, it was smart to take that angle and say he wouldn't be as good of an fantasy option as Johnson, Logano, Kyle Busch,etc heading into the weekend. When you add up the logic and factors, yeah it made sense to put him behind those guys. But did you really think Harvick wouldn't unload a fast car when considering how awesome he has been on the 1.5 mile tracks and at Homestead with SHR? Not for a second did I believe that, he has been a stud here the last couple seasons. Guess what? He is starting on the pole with another long run #4 car. This weekend, he has looked pretty strong overall. In the first session, he was strong. Among the competition, he looked to have one of the best long-run cars. His lap times just didn't fall off that much. At Homestead, you need a good car on the long run that doesn't fall-off. Harvick always has been good at that, his cars are usually stout on the long runs. This weekend has been no different so far.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Jimmie Johnson - Many people pointed at Jimmie Johnson as the odds-on favorite to win his 7th championship on Sunday. He has been great on this type of track in the chase so far, so there was no reason to think he wouldn't have speed this weekend. So far, he has lived up to expectations. He showed good speed in both sessions and will start from the 14th starting spot. I wouldn't say he has great speed or the best car this weekend, but he has plenty going for him. Week in and week out on this type of track in chase, he has been one of the cars to beat. This weekend is no difference so far as he has showed solid speed overall. He has enough speed to go up there and challenge for a top 5 finish based on what I had seen so far. He also has a history of running well at Homestead as well, as he has finished inside the top 10 in the past 3 races here. Well, I don't think he is quite as good as Edwards, I do believe the 48 team will make him better and get him up there challenging for the win. He is a tough driver to overlook this weekend, even if he doesn't have the car to beat. Because let's be honest, Johnson is a big-timer performer. He has came through in years past. He has been in this situation, going to Homestead with a chance to win a championship. Yeah, not under this format but he knows how to get the job done though.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
3. Joey Logano - There are number of factors I like taking into consideration when making my overall rankings and Logano looks good across the board. He has been very consistent of late, with 4 top 4 finishes over his past 5 races in the chase. Also he has performed extremely well on the 1.5 milers in the chase. Take out the Charlotte race, he has an 2.3 average finish and dominated the Texas race. The most similar and recent 1.5 mile track. I think it important to run well at Texas because that has a good chance to translate into Homestead success. He doesn't look nearly as dominant as he was at Texas, but still he has looked pretty good. I don't think he was good as Edwards in either session but still has plenty of speed this weekend. I say he a little off from Edwards and right there with Johnson in terms of speed overall. Personally, I thought he had good speed in both sessions. He should be able to mix it up front on the long run as he looks to have good enough lap times on the long runs in final practice. Didn't post an ten-lap average in the first session though. Headed into the race, I would view him as a top 5 threat and a good shot at the championship.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
4. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch has looked the slowest of the chasers some far. In my Fantasy Preview on Tuesday, I said I would like for him to get off to a fast start this weekend, as I thought that has slowed his progress the last couple weeks. So far at Homestead, I thought he looked good but not good enough for him to look like a legitimate championship contender. However, I do believe the 18 team will fix him up like the past two weeks and get him in contention. In practice, I thought he had good long run speed and that should help him quite a bit getting through the field. So don't count Busch out, because remember practice doesn't win you the championship. He won this event last year and I am expecting him to be a heavy challenger before the checkers wave on late Sunday afternoon. Based off of practice, I would pin him in the 6th-9th place range in terms of potential. Overall, I would say he right where he needs to be. If he can gain some in the race, I feel confident in him. He is the type of driver you want behind the wheel in a championship race. His aggressiveness is something that will be beneficial for him.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
5. Matt Kenseth - This final spot was down to Matt Kenseth or Brad Keselowski. Neither driver will likely contend for the win, but they both have teammates in championship contention though. Doesn't really matter, but that the only thing they do have in common. I like both Kenseth and Keselowski as solid top 10 finishers on Sunday afternoon. I went with Kenseth because he qualified at the front and he showed more speed in practice than Keselowski. I also like how well Kenseth has ran over the past 5 races in the chase. He holds the 2nd-best average finish, not that it means much really. As we saw last week, you can do everything right and still get a shitty finish. I also like that Kenseth has always ran well at Homestead, including with JGR. There's isn't a lot for me to say about Matt Kenseth really. He has enough speed to be a good top 5 to very strong top 10 driver, but isn't really racing for anything other than playing spoiler. He will have motivation to go out and win after how things ended last week, but I just haven't seen enough speed out of him this weekend yet.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
B:
1. Carl Edwards - To me, Edwards is the most complete championship contender and that common theme all week among the nascar community. I thought him and Logano were the most complete ones with Busch and Johnson not far behind. Overall, I would say this is the most competitive Championship 4. With that said, I would say that Carl Edwards it the front runner entering the race. He has the best average finish and the most wins at this track. Also he has plenty of motivation as well. Everyone have motivation to win, but Carl has some extra motivation to win. Back in 2011, he lost on a tie-breaker to Tony Stewart. This is his first shot to redeem himself, and I personally think he has a great shot at doing so. Remember, Texas is the most similar racetrack to Homestead and we visited there a couple weeks ago. On that night, Edwards found victory lane after having an top 5 car all night long. And on Saturday, I would say not much has changed really for him. He has a very fast car and looked strong on the long runs as well. He ranked 5th among drivers in final practice on the ten-lap average and topped the ten-lap averages in the first practice as well. He also topped the top 3 on the speed charts as well. Headed into the race, I think Edwards will be very tough to beat. If you want to win the championship on Sunday, you will have to beat the #19 car. I view him as a top 3 driver headed into the race!
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr was one of my favorite non-chasers headed into the weekend and boy did I have good reason to love him all week. As he unloaded very fast on Friday and kept that speed into Saturday's practice sessions as well. Overall, I thought Truex had a top 5 car in practice. He had very good long run speed and don't forget the 78 team had a bullet throughout the chase on the 1.5 mile racetracks. Also, he had a top 4 car back at Texas, which is usually a good sign of things to come at Homestead. He hasn't disappointed in that aspect either. Throughout the weekend, he has looked awesome. He was among the best, at times I thought he looked like the best car. Consistently a top 5 car overall since unloading. He isn't battling for a championship, but you wouldn't know that how he has been running this weekend though. I would say he should be good for an finish between 4th-6th place with upside to contend for the race win as well.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
3. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson has looked great this weekend, despite qualifying 24th. He looked very good on the long runs in the first practice on Saturday. But it wasn't until the final practice session that he stood out to me. In final practice, no driver looked better than him. He started off with an impressive 20-lap run. I compared him to Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski. They both were running in the 33.20s and 33.30s range after 20 laps to the start the practice session. Kyle Larson? Still the 32.80s and 32.90s range. That's ridiculous. Reminder of the session, he continued to display that great long run speed. At a place like Homstead, you can tell when a driver has really good long run speed like Larson has. As the fall-off is pretty clear. Larson's didn't fall that much, he will have something to say about who wins the race, I am sure. Remember, this is his favorite racetrack and he already has two races under his belt this weekend as well. Not to mention, he almost won this race last season as well. The No.42 car could surprise some people for sure.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
4. Kasey Kahne - I haven't pay much attention to Kasey Kahne this weekend as he been really middle of the speed charts for the most part. As I kept my eyes on the contenders for the race win than guys like Kahne. With that said, I did get to track couple of runs as I like comparing drivers when I track lap times. And didn't look terrible overall, but it hard to say since I didn't really get o watch him that much honestly.Truthfully, you probably don't have him on your fantasy radar for the speed he shows in practice. You probably had him on your fantasy radar because how consistent he has been over the entire chase. In the chase, he has only once finished worse than 15th and only twice finished worse than 12th place. His really only bad race since Darlington has been Talladega. If your worst finish in two months is Talladega, then you are doing something right. Which also means that Kahne has finished inside the top 12 in every race on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase as well. At worst this weekend, you can expect an top 15 finish from Kahne. Lately he has been consistent inside the top 12, so if the trends continues, then you should get another quality use out of him. If you are lucky enough, he might even deliver you an top 10 finish, too. You feeling lucky?
My Overall Ranking: 12th
5. Austin Dillon - The final spot was down to either Austin Dillon or Ryan Newman, I went with Austin Dillon because of the speed he has shown lately. Two weeks ago at Texas, he was simply awesome and had a top 5 to top 7 car before getting wrecked late in the race. This weekend, he hasn't shown that same speed but I feel pretty confident in him. He looked good in both sessions on Saturday, I wouldn't say he can repeat Texas' performance though. However, he looks pretty close to an top 10 driver heading into the race. I would say he is in that 11th-14th place range with enough upside to sniff the top 10. Dillon also has been a strong driver on this type of track in the chase. When he hasn't gotten in trouble, he has been in the mix for a top 10 to top 12 run. If he can stay out of trouble, I am thinking that will be the outcome on Sunday afternoon.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott was looking like he was going to be a heavy contender last weekend at Phoenix, but he faded in the latter stages of the race though. Now, he has one more shot to get into victory lane during his rookie season. He had about the 3rd or 4th best car a couple weeks ago at Texas Motor Speedway and ended inside the top 5. He looking to repeat that success this weekend at Homestead and so far, I would say he is easily in the ballpark to have that kind of potential. Elliott has shown plenty of speed so far overall and should be able to contend for a top 5 finish at some point. Him being eliminated from the chase hasn't really effected him. Realistically I would say he is a solid top 10 driver with enough upside toe contend for a top 5 finish on Sunday. He has looked great this weekend, you can expect him to cap it off with quality run too.
My Overall Ranking: 10th
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney will try to cap off his rookie season with a strong run at Homestead, after finishing 8th place last week at Phoenix. I think Blaney will be good on Sunday afternoon, but I am not sure about anything beyond 10th place though. However, he did post the 3rd-best ten lap average in final practice though. I personally view him just outside of the top 10. Blaney in my opinion is in that next tier of drivers from 11th-16th place. Blaney probably more towards the front of those tier of drivers, I would he say close to the top 12 or maybe at worst top 15. Something I noticed about Blaney is, he is running much more consistently than he was at start of the year. Instead of being top 20 driver with top 15 upside. He has became an top 15 with top 10 upside. I have a feeling we are in store for another similar outcome for him at the season's finale.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
3. Alex Bowman - Bowman will make his final start of the season for HMS and the No.88 team, and possibly the final start for good as Dale Jr is expected back in 2016. This weekend, Bowman has looked decent overall. He hasn't looked quite as good as Jimmie Johnson or Chase Elliott, however he is very capable of a solid teen finish this weekend though. Bowman most likely won't be able to repeat last week performance at Phoenix. Excuse me, I promise you he won't. When looking at the numbers, Bowman has been a top 15 driver on this type of track during the chase. So no surprise, he has shown similar potential so far this weekend at Homestead. Headed into the race, I view him as a top 15 driver with upside that could take him near the top 10 when the checkers waves.
My Overall Ranking: 18th
Tier by Rankings -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Joey Logono
6. Kyle Busch
8. Matt Kenseth
9. Brad Keselowski
11. Denny Hamlin
14. Kurt Busch
B:
2. Carl Edwards
5. Martin Truex Jr
7. Kyle Larson
12. Kasey Kahne
13. Austin Dillon
15. Ryan Newman
17. JMac
19. Paul Menard
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
C:
10. Chase Elliott
16. Ryan Blaney
18. Alex Bowman
25. Ty Dillon
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Fantasy Nascar Update -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick - People said that Kevin Harvick wouldn't be a contender at Homstead and I nearly died laughing. From fantasy point of view, it was smart to take that angle and say he wouldn't be as good of an fantasy option as Johnson, Logano, Kyle Busch,etc heading into the weekend. When you add up the logic and factors, yeah it made sense to put him behind those guys. But did you really think Harvick wouldn't unload a fast car when considering how awesome he has been on the 1.5 mile tracks and at Homestead with SHR? Not for a second did I believe that, he has been a stud here the last couple seasons. Guess what? He is starting on the pole with another long run #4 car. This weekend, he has looked pretty strong overall. In the first session, he was strong. Among the competition, he looked to have one of the best long-run cars. His lap times just didn't fall off that much. At Homestead, you need a good car on the long run that doesn't fall-off. Harvick always has been good at that, his cars are usually stout on the long runs. This weekend has been no different so far.
My Overall Ranking: 1st
2. Jimmie Johnson - Many people pointed at Jimmie Johnson as the odds-on favorite to win his 7th championship on Sunday. He has been great on this type of track in the chase so far, so there was no reason to think he wouldn't have speed this weekend. So far, he has lived up to expectations. He showed good speed in both sessions and will start from the 14th starting spot. I wouldn't say he has great speed or the best car this weekend, but he has plenty going for him. Week in and week out on this type of track in chase, he has been one of the cars to beat. This weekend is no difference so far as he has showed solid speed overall. He has enough speed to go up there and challenge for a top 5 finish based on what I had seen so far. He also has a history of running well at Homestead as well, as he has finished inside the top 10 in the past 3 races here. Well, I don't think he is quite as good as Edwards, I do believe the 48 team will make him better and get him up there challenging for the win. He is a tough driver to overlook this weekend, even if he doesn't have the car to beat. Because let's be honest, Johnson is a big-timer performer. He has came through in years past. He has been in this situation, going to Homestead with a chance to win a championship. Yeah, not under this format but he knows how to get the job done though.
My Overall Ranking: 3rd
3. Joey Logano - There are number of factors I like taking into consideration when making my overall rankings and Logano looks good across the board. He has been very consistent of late, with 4 top 4 finishes over his past 5 races in the chase. Also he has performed extremely well on the 1.5 milers in the chase. Take out the Charlotte race, he has an 2.3 average finish and dominated the Texas race. The most similar and recent 1.5 mile track. I think it important to run well at Texas because that has a good chance to translate into Homestead success. He doesn't look nearly as dominant as he was at Texas, but still he has looked pretty good. I don't think he was good as Edwards in either session but still has plenty of speed this weekend. I say he a little off from Edwards and right there with Johnson in terms of speed overall. Personally, I thought he had good speed in both sessions. He should be able to mix it up front on the long run as he looks to have good enough lap times on the long runs in final practice. Didn't post an ten-lap average in the first session though. Headed into the race, I would view him as a top 5 threat and a good shot at the championship.
My Overall Ranking: 4th
4. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch has looked the slowest of the chasers some far. In my Fantasy Preview on Tuesday, I said I would like for him to get off to a fast start this weekend, as I thought that has slowed his progress the last couple weeks. So far at Homestead, I thought he looked good but not good enough for him to look like a legitimate championship contender. However, I do believe the 18 team will fix him up like the past two weeks and get him in contention. In practice, I thought he had good long run speed and that should help him quite a bit getting through the field. So don't count Busch out, because remember practice doesn't win you the championship. He won this event last year and I am expecting him to be a heavy challenger before the checkers wave on late Sunday afternoon. Based off of practice, I would pin him in the 6th-9th place range in terms of potential. Overall, I would say he right where he needs to be. If he can gain some in the race, I feel confident in him. He is the type of driver you want behind the wheel in a championship race. His aggressiveness is something that will be beneficial for him.
My Overall Ranking: 6th
5. Matt Kenseth - This final spot was down to Matt Kenseth or Brad Keselowski. Neither driver will likely contend for the win, but they both have teammates in championship contention though. Doesn't really matter, but that the only thing they do have in common. I like both Kenseth and Keselowski as solid top 10 finishers on Sunday afternoon. I went with Kenseth because he qualified at the front and he showed more speed in practice than Keselowski. I also like how well Kenseth has ran over the past 5 races in the chase. He holds the 2nd-best average finish, not that it means much really. As we saw last week, you can do everything right and still get a shitty finish. I also like that Kenseth has always ran well at Homestead, including with JGR. There's isn't a lot for me to say about Matt Kenseth really. He has enough speed to be a good top 5 to very strong top 10 driver, but isn't really racing for anything other than playing spoiler. He will have motivation to go out and win after how things ended last week, but I just haven't seen enough speed out of him this weekend yet.
My Overall Ranking: 8th
B:
1. Carl Edwards - To me, Edwards is the most complete championship contender and that common theme all week among the nascar community. I thought him and Logano were the most complete ones with Busch and Johnson not far behind. Overall, I would say this is the most competitive Championship 4. With that said, I would say that Carl Edwards it the front runner entering the race. He has the best average finish and the most wins at this track. Also he has plenty of motivation as well. Everyone have motivation to win, but Carl has some extra motivation to win. Back in 2011, he lost on a tie-breaker to Tony Stewart. This is his first shot to redeem himself, and I personally think he has a great shot at doing so. Remember, Texas is the most similar racetrack to Homestead and we visited there a couple weeks ago. On that night, Edwards found victory lane after having an top 5 car all night long. And on Saturday, I would say not much has changed really for him. He has a very fast car and looked strong on the long runs as well. He ranked 5th among drivers in final practice on the ten-lap average and topped the ten-lap averages in the first practice as well. He also topped the top 3 on the speed charts as well. Headed into the race, I think Edwards will be very tough to beat. If you want to win the championship on Sunday, you will have to beat the #19 car. I view him as a top 3 driver headed into the race!
My Overall Ranking: 2nd
2. Martin Truex Jr - Truex Jr was one of my favorite non-chasers headed into the weekend and boy did I have good reason to love him all week. As he unloaded very fast on Friday and kept that speed into Saturday's practice sessions as well. Overall, I thought Truex had a top 5 car in practice. He had very good long run speed and don't forget the 78 team had a bullet throughout the chase on the 1.5 mile racetracks. Also, he had a top 4 car back at Texas, which is usually a good sign of things to come at Homestead. He hasn't disappointed in that aspect either. Throughout the weekend, he has looked awesome. He was among the best, at times I thought he looked like the best car. Consistently a top 5 car overall since unloading. He isn't battling for a championship, but you wouldn't know that how he has been running this weekend though. I would say he should be good for an finish between 4th-6th place with upside to contend for the race win as well.
My Overall Ranking: 5th
3. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson has looked great this weekend, despite qualifying 24th. He looked very good on the long runs in the first practice on Saturday. But it wasn't until the final practice session that he stood out to me. In final practice, no driver looked better than him. He started off with an impressive 20-lap run. I compared him to Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski. They both were running in the 33.20s and 33.30s range after 20 laps to the start the practice session. Kyle Larson? Still the 32.80s and 32.90s range. That's ridiculous. Reminder of the session, he continued to display that great long run speed. At a place like Homstead, you can tell when a driver has really good long run speed like Larson has. As the fall-off is pretty clear. Larson's didn't fall that much, he will have something to say about who wins the race, I am sure. Remember, this is his favorite racetrack and he already has two races under his belt this weekend as well. Not to mention, he almost won this race last season as well. The No.42 car could surprise some people for sure.
My Overall Ranking: 7th
4. Kasey Kahne - I haven't pay much attention to Kasey Kahne this weekend as he been really middle of the speed charts for the most part. As I kept my eyes on the contenders for the race win than guys like Kahne. With that said, I did get to track couple of runs as I like comparing drivers when I track lap times. And didn't look terrible overall, but it hard to say since I didn't really get o watch him that much honestly.Truthfully, you probably don't have him on your fantasy radar for the speed he shows in practice. You probably had him on your fantasy radar because how consistent he has been over the entire chase. In the chase, he has only once finished worse than 15th and only twice finished worse than 12th place. His really only bad race since Darlington has been Talladega. If your worst finish in two months is Talladega, then you are doing something right. Which also means that Kahne has finished inside the top 12 in every race on the 1.5 mile tracks in the chase as well. At worst this weekend, you can expect an top 15 finish from Kahne. Lately he has been consistent inside the top 12, so if the trends continues, then you should get another quality use out of him. If you are lucky enough, he might even deliver you an top 10 finish, too. You feeling lucky?
My Overall Ranking: 12th
5. Austin Dillon - The final spot was down to either Austin Dillon or Ryan Newman, I went with Austin Dillon because of the speed he has shown lately. Two weeks ago at Texas, he was simply awesome and had a top 5 to top 7 car before getting wrecked late in the race. This weekend, he hasn't shown that same speed but I feel pretty confident in him. He looked good in both sessions on Saturday, I wouldn't say he can repeat Texas' performance though. However, he looks pretty close to an top 10 driver heading into the race. I would say he is in that 11th-14th place range with enough upside to sniff the top 10. Dillon also has been a strong driver on this type of track in the chase. When he hasn't gotten in trouble, he has been in the mix for a top 10 to top 12 run. If he can stay out of trouble, I am thinking that will be the outcome on Sunday afternoon.
My Overall Ranking: 13th
C:
1. Chase Elliott - Elliott was looking like he was going to be a heavy contender last weekend at Phoenix, but he faded in the latter stages of the race though. Now, he has one more shot to get into victory lane during his rookie season. He had about the 3rd or 4th best car a couple weeks ago at Texas Motor Speedway and ended inside the top 5. He looking to repeat that success this weekend at Homestead and so far, I would say he is easily in the ballpark to have that kind of potential. Elliott has shown plenty of speed so far overall and should be able to contend for a top 5 finish at some point. Him being eliminated from the chase hasn't really effected him. Realistically I would say he is a solid top 10 driver with enough upside toe contend for a top 5 finish on Sunday. He has looked great this weekend, you can expect him to cap it off with quality run too.
My Overall Ranking: 10th
2. Ryan Blaney - Blaney will try to cap off his rookie season with a strong run at Homestead, after finishing 8th place last week at Phoenix. I think Blaney will be good on Sunday afternoon, but I am not sure about anything beyond 10th place though. However, he did post the 3rd-best ten lap average in final practice though. I personally view him just outside of the top 10. Blaney in my opinion is in that next tier of drivers from 11th-16th place. Blaney probably more towards the front of those tier of drivers, I would he say close to the top 12 or maybe at worst top 15. Something I noticed about Blaney is, he is running much more consistently than he was at start of the year. Instead of being top 20 driver with top 15 upside. He has became an top 15 with top 10 upside. I have a feeling we are in store for another similar outcome for him at the season's finale.
My Overall Ranking: 15th
3. Alex Bowman - Bowman will make his final start of the season for HMS and the No.88 team, and possibly the final start for good as Dale Jr is expected back in 2016. This weekend, Bowman has looked decent overall. He hasn't looked quite as good as Jimmie Johnson or Chase Elliott, however he is very capable of a solid teen finish this weekend though. Bowman most likely won't be able to repeat last week performance at Phoenix. Excuse me, I promise you he won't. When looking at the numbers, Bowman has been a top 15 driver on this type of track during the chase. So no surprise, he has shown similar potential so far this weekend at Homestead. Headed into the race, I view him as a top 15 driver with upside that could take him near the top 10 when the checkers waves.
My Overall Ranking: 18th
Tier by Rankings -
A:
1. Kevin Harvick
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Joey Logono
6. Kyle Busch
8. Matt Kenseth
9. Brad Keselowski
11. Denny Hamlin
14. Kurt Busch
B:
2. Carl Edwards
5. Martin Truex Jr
7. Kyle Larson
12. Kasey Kahne
13. Austin Dillon
15. Ryan Newman
17. JMac
19. Paul Menard
20. Ricky Stenhouse Jr
C:
10. Chase Elliott
16. Ryan Blaney
18. Alex Bowman
25. Ty Dillon
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
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