Tuesday, December 27, 2016

2017 Fantasy Nascar Preivew: Erik Jones

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Erik Jones will make the move to the Monster Energy Nascar Series (MENS) Top Series in 2017 and drives for the #77 team and FRR. This is ideal situation for Joe Gibbs Racing probably. They have current drivers whom all has ran well over the past 2 seasons. While FRR (Gibbs' alliance member) wants to add an second team. What better fit than to loan out promising Nascar prospect Erik Jones? There is none, because he is probably the most ready driver we had seen since Denny Hamlin back in 2006.

Erik Jones (in my opinion) has the potential to be the first legit winner as a rookie in Nascar's top series in quite awhile. And I mean competitively running up front and winning, not lucking into a race win. There's has been quite a few of them over the years. Anyhow, I really do like Erik Jones. He brings so many things to the table, but what stands out is how mature he is as a driver. He is one of the most well-rounded drivers overall. The make of him is just impressive. He can really wheel a car and can run well at just about every type of track. Not only that, but he will also be in the best-equipment available too. If you were impressed by Chase Elliott last year, then expect to have your socks blown off by Erik Jones. I think he can win a race and make the chase with the #77 team and then some. Just like any rookie, he will have his bad days. But Jones is one of those young dudes who don't shy away from the spotlight. He always seems to be clam and collected. That's key for a young driver, in my opinion. For Jones' sake, hopefully that translate to the top series for him.

The intermediate tracks will be likely a very strong spot for Erik Jones as a driver in 2017. Not only has he excelled at them in the lower series, but he be in the same type of equipment in 2017 as he was the last couple years. Sometimes, going to cup means you lose your top equipment which will really hurt a driver. Not Jones though. He will be in a top 10 car, right off the bat. Jones is ready for this, too. He is not like some of these drivers out here, thrown into a situation that he cannot handles. H didn't get any starts with JGR or FRR in 2016, but he did make an start back at Kansas in place of Kyle Busch though. How did he do? He was running inside the top 5 with the #18 car before he blew an tire. He was running like 4th at the time. That's impressive for his first start with literally very little time with a Cup car. Then he made another start back in late 2015 at Texas. That was the race, that Matt Kenseth was forced to miss because of suspension. He did alright in that race. Pretty good actually! He started 6th, posted 10th-best driver rating (92.6) and finished 12th.

Overall, the intermediate tracks should be an major strength for young Erik Jones. Not only will he be a top 10 contender (or at worst low-teen like contender), but he will have major upside on a weekly basis. Anytime, you put a driver like Erik in top equipment then you should expect the best case possible. He is one of those drivers whom can reach his true potential. I expect Jones to go to victory lane this season and I think it will most likely come on an intermediate track. Personally, I am expecting it to happen on an 1.5 mile track.

Flats tracks in general should be another strength for him, right behind the intermediate tracks. I think he will be a little better on the larger flats than the shorter flats though. I just get a feeling, he is one of those drivers that could excel at the large tracks more quickly because of his horsepower advantage. I think him being back by JGR will make him a quality driver at Pocono and Indy. Usually having that horsepower advantage gives a leg up on all of the 2nd-tier teams like RCR, CGR and RFR. Teams like Penske, HMS and Gibbs will be in the best position at the larger flats. Jones is basically an extra JGR car, so he will get to benefit from the horsepower they bring to places like Pocono and Indy. It should be huge for him, as he should be able to contend for top 10 finishes or at worst in the lower-teens. I say top 15 is likely for him easily at Indy and Pocono. I say he will have a better shot at Indy though. Pocono is just a tough track in general to truly master.

The shorter flats will be also an strong spot for him as well. I think it will be a type of track, where he more often than not hover inside the top 10 or just outside of it. He is familiar with them too, as he made a name for himself on them coming through the Nascar ranks. As Jones get experience on them, expect his performance on them to be standout-like and his finishes should improve as well. The first time around may not be perfect for him, but once we return I would have far higher standards for him. If he can get top 12 or something the first time around, then second time around his upside should flirt with the top 7 or 8. Experience is key as a rookie. Usually the first time around (of the tracks we visit twice), it about logging laps. The second time around it will be much easily. Commonly drivers see good amount of improvements too. I would expect top 12 to top 14 potential out of him in general on the flat racetracks honestly.

Short tracks will be hard to say about him, it is a tricky type of track for young drivers like Jones. Many drivers will struggle to be consistent because these races are usually filled with cautions. You can easily get caught up in someone's else mess and ruin your day. Also these tracks aren't easy to master, either. I say he will have a better chance to run well at Bristol than Martinsville though. I think Martinsville is one of the toughest tracks on the schedule to run well at. Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, and Ryan Blaney all struggled to run well at Martinsville in their rookie years. I personally don't think Jones will be any different. He is in better equipment than most of them, but still I am not sure how much it will matter. Most drivers will get better here as they gain more track time at it. For now, Jones will likely be a top 20 driver at Martinsville.

 Road courses and Plate tracks are the tracks that I would try to avoid with Erik Jones overall. They are venues where I expect him to struggle. More so on the road courses, to be honest. No disrespect towards Jones but I am not sure if he is that good of a road course racer. I say that because he don't really have that much experience with them. It is one thing to run well at short tracks, but it is another to find success at road courses though. They are a whole new animal to deal with. Also he has never raced at Sonoma before. So it will make it tricky for him, no doubt. He raced at Watkins Glenn in the NXS though. Also, Jones doesn't really fit the mole as a road course racer. He was average in the lower series, the cup level will be even tougher. Plate tracks will also be tough because he is not a driver whom get lucky a lot. If you watched him last season in NXS, then you already know his ''luck'' isn't that good. With FRR? That's a bad combination to me. 

Overall, I expect Erik Jones to be one of the best rookies we have seen in quite awhile. He will have his bad days, but most times it will be countered by another impressive finish. His best days early in the season should be inside near the top 5 and his bad will be when he doesn't finish the race on the lead lap. Jones is a bad luck driver, so I fully expect him to find trouble. But as he gain experience, he should be able to limit the mistakes. Which is why I am expecting him to get better as the season goes on. Jones biggest asset is his maturity behind the wheel. He is so talented and doesn't drives like he is 20 years old. He drives like a vet and that's so impressive. Jones best days will likely be on the intermediate tracks and flats in generals. His worst performances will likely be on the road courses and short tracks. In 2017, I have very high hopes for him and personally I would be disappointed if he didn't reach victory lane. In his equipment, I think him getting to victory lane is almost a must. He has the talent, the knowledge and the equipment to get it there. It just up to him to find a way to make it happen honestly.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18