Wednesday, December 21, 2016

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Aric Almirola

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Driver Name: Aric Almirola

Car #: 43

Make: Ford

Season Debut: 2012 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 215

# of Career Poles: 1

# of Career Wins: 1

# of Career Top 5s: 8 

# of Career Top 10s: 26

# of Career DNFs: 31

# of Career laps led: 174 

Career Average Finish: 21.7

Career Average Start: 21.1

# of 2016 Wins: 0

# of 2016 Top 5s: 0

# of 2016 Top 10s: 1 

# of 2016 Poles: 0

# of 2016 DNFs: 6 

# of 2016 laps led: 1

2016 Average Finish: 23.3

2016 Average Start: 23.9

2016 Fantasy Recap - Aric had a very disappointing season with RPM, I expected much more out of him overall. He had a very solid 2015 campaign , so I was expecting something similar out of him. Instead, he saw a decline in every category across the board. In fact, he posted career-lows as a full-time driver. Since 2012, he has never posted worse numbers than he did in 2016. He had career-worst 23.3 average finish (never worse than 21.3), 23.9 average start (never worse than 22.3), 0 Top 5 finishes (had at least one in every season prior), 1 Top 10 finish (never had less than 4) and 1 lap led (also a career-low). Of all of the driver profiles, this is the first time a driver have actually saw a decline in every major statically category. That's just crazy! He went from having his best season ever in 2015 to having his worst-season ever. You don't see that very often, it was truly a down year for Aric and the 43 team!

Strong Tracks - Richmond, Dover, Phoenix and Bristol

Weak Tracks - Cali and Indy

Yahoo Grouping Tier: B-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - In 2017, RPM will dial back to just 1 car in the Sprint Cup Series. I personally really love this move overall. It will allow RPM to focus on one car. Which would lead to his best year ever at the Cup because they are just putting funds and time into one driver. That could lead to good things or bad, just all depends though. Aric should be at his best on the shorter racetracks such as the shorter flats. Places like New Hampshire, Richmond and Phoenix. The shorter flats will be his strongest type of track, he will be consistent. And more importantly, it will be the type of track that he has his highest ceiling at too. Meaning, his best results and performance are likely at them. He will also do well on the short tracks (Martinsville and Bristol), but he will be more inconsistent. Make no mistake though, he will have strong runs if everything goes according to plan. Likely in the 12th-18th range, I would say. I would also put Dover as a strong track for him. It's not considered a short track or a shorter-flat, but it fits (in length) into what kind of track he runs well at. He also will be good on the plate tracks, pretty consistent into the high teens for the most part. He does a very good job at finishes races at Daytona and Talladega. However, don't go out and expect him to give you the world though. As for intermediate tracks (Nascar's bread and butter), he will have some serious issues at. On an average weekend, he will contend and finish somewhere in the low-20s. It is an area that I am very concerned about. The best we can hope for is he qualifies poorly consistently in the mid to high 20s, so he becomes a valuable piece for position differential leagues. Otherwise, I don't see him having much value at all. Overall, I am expecting a good year from Aric. Not a great one though. Aric will have his bad days but he will have his good ones too. Most likely on shorter tracks in length. Bristol, Martinsville, Richmond, Dover, New Hampshire and Pheonix are by way the best places to use him. Anywhere else, you are playing with the house's money. And kids, you don't want to be caught stealing it, as it could be costly!

Twitter - @JeffNathans18