Saturday, December 10, 2016

2017 Fantasy Nascar Profile: Matt Kenseth

Welcome to TimersSports

Driver Name: Matt Kenseth

Car #: 20

Make: Toyota 

Season Debut: 2000 (First-Full Season)

Number of Championships: 0

# of Career Starts: 614

# of Career Poles: 16

# of Career Wins: 38

# of Career Top 5s: 171 

# of Career Top 10s: 309

# of Career DNFs: 54

# of Career laps led: 11,330 

Career Average Finish: 14.1

Career Average Start: 17.3

# of 2016 Wins: 2

# of 2016 Top 5s: 8

# of 2016 Top 10s: 19 

# of 2016 Poles: 1

# of 2016 DNFs: 4 

# of 2016 laps led: 948

2016 Average Finish: 13.7

2016 Average Start: 9.6

2016 Fantasy Recap - Kenseth had a tough start to the 2016 season. His bad luck was on a different level for the first 8 races or so. I think the Richmond race was the turning point for him though. He finished 7th in that race. He followed that up with 23rd, 4th and a win at Dover. Then he added two 7th place finishes the next two races as well. I think that stench of races were a big reason for the turn around for him. He got momentum at Richmond and ran with it. I thought after Daytona, he was one of the best drivers in the series. In fact, if we didn't see a late caution (at Phoenix) then he would had advanced to Homestead and had shot at the championship. Things didn't quite work out for him at end of the season. But still, 9 Top 5 finishes is pretty solid when his first didn't come until the 11th race of the season. And 19 Top 10 finishes is a very solid mark, too. Overall, he probably had his worst year ever since joining JGR. As his numbers ranked as his worst since joining in 2014. If 9 Top 5 finishes and 19 Top 10 finishes with 13.7 average finish, while just laps away from contending for a title is considered a down year, then I am excited for him in the years to come!

Strong Tracks - Kentucky, Atlanta, New Hampshire, Bristol and Dover

Weak Tracks - Sonoma and Pocono

Yahoo Grouping Tier: A-list Grouping

2017 Fantasy Outlook - Matt Kenseth saw his worst season yet with JGR, but I highly doubt that will continue for him in 2017 though. Matt has proven he is one of the best drivers in the series, last season he kinda reminded me of teammate Hamlin's 2015 season. Sluggish first half and a very strong second half. He should post better numbers in 2017 and once again be a heavy contender for the championship. Much like his teammates, he will be at his strongest on the 1.5 mile intermediate tracks. His biggest problem on this type of track, he doesn't always deliver the homerun ball like Harvick, Johnson, Rowdy,etc does. He is consistent top 10 driver, but not quite at that next level. That been Kenseth his entire career. Good bet for a solid finish, but just missing that signature standout upside. Personally, if I was going to use him it would be at the shorter tracks. Places in 1-mile or less in length more specifically. Places like Bristol, Martinsville, Richmond, Dover, etc are the places were you can really cash in on Kenseth's potential. Not to say, he won't run well at other tracks. But you are more than likely just trying to find value where it will be limited. I would try to avoid him on the road course and plate tracks to a certain level. He is getting better at road courses, much better since joining JGR. But I am not ready to jump on the bandwagon yet. I do really like how he has been trending. As for plate races, he never seem to have any luck there. Something always happen. For 2017, I am projecting him to have about 2-3 wins, 10-15 Top 5 finishes and 18 to 22 Top 10 finishes. Those numbers are very doable for Matt's caliber level driver.

Twitter - @JeffNathans18