Thursday, March 16, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Sleepers (PIR)

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You know, sometimes you take risks and they paid off. Sometimes, you take risks and you look like a complete idiot. That's name of the game, my friends! In fantasy sports, that couldn't be any more true. More specifically, it usual separates the winners and losers in Fantasy Nascar. If you aren't willing to take the risks, there's probably someone else out there who will. Sometimes playing it safe is smart and the good way to go. But, it will only get you so far. Last week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway would be a perfect example. Ryan Blaney would be that example. The numbers and common sense said he would be a good play. I took a shot with him and he's finished 7th. That was a good gamble, a risky one after how he's performed at Atlanta. But it was one that ultimately paid off. A bad gamble from last week was Austin Dillon. Logic said he would be a legit play, but it just wasn't in the cards though. It happens sometimes. At end of the day, you have to take the good with the bad!

Let's get started with today's picks!

Sleepers -

Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Last Wednesday, I gave some love to my boy Ricky. Then after watching practice, I crossed him off my list. He's looked good in the race, until he didn't anymore, but my gut was right as he's finished 33rd. That was a good call. But I will give him another shot to prove himself. Many likely won't realize this, but he's pretty good at Phoenix! Yes, I know, he has a 28.2 average finish over his past 4 races at Phoenix. Yeah, that is complete utter garbage. I cannot really tell you anything good from those races, especially the last three races. He haven't been good with finishes of 23rd, 37th and 41st. However, he's finished 18th or better in his first 6 starts at this track. In March 2015, he's finished 12th and had 78.0 driver rating. Tied for best-finish at PIR in career and career-best driver rating, as well. That was 2 years ago. Yes, he's been in a funk over his past three races. However, he was good here at one time, too. And just remember, 2 of the past three races at Phoenix ended poorly due to wrecks or mechanical issues. Ricky isn't as bad as he's look on paper.

Aric Almirola - You know I had many questions after Atlatna and watching the 43 team suck it up. Of course, I have now even more puzzling questions after Las Vegas. As Aric finsihed inside the top 15 there. With that said, we are headed to a great track for Aric. I love employing Aric on these 1-mile tracks in length or less. For the past couple seasons, it has been one type of track that you could expect consistency. In 10 career races at Phoenix with No.43 team, he's finished 19th or better in 9 of those races. In those 9 Top 19 finishes, he has finished better than he's started eight times. It is true that Aric has struggled since greater part of last season. However, these shorter tracks in length had been very good to him. Usually when he's finishes the races, there's a good shot that he will be near (or in) the top 20. If the standard scoring is ''final finish position'', then he is not a ideal fantasy option. But he's definitely a playable driver in certain formats. You just need to know your league's rules and setup.

AJ Dinger - Dinger isn't the first driver that you think of at Phoenix, but he's a good option to consider, though. In his last 5 races at Phoenix, he's posted 18.2 average finish. In that span, he's finished 17th or better in four of those races. In those races, he's posted 16.8 average finish with 21.5 average start and 18.8 average running position. He's finished 16th or 17th in all four races. The 21.5 average start and 18.8 average running position is important because it says something about him overall. The average start says that he's typically moves forward in the race. Good sign for position differential leagues. The average running position says he can be top 20 finisher. Sure, he haven't looked great in either races last season. But, he's finished 17th in both races. Dinger is capable of being a top 20 finisher. Dinger alone won't win your league for you, but he could be the reason you have a slight advantage. In certain leagues, of course.

***No Dark Horses in this post. Mainly due to lack of time. Check back on Saturday for more

Have a question or want to chat about Fantasy Nascar?

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Twitter - @Garryy12