Saturday, March 04, 2017

2017 Fantasy Nascar Updated Sleepers & Dark Horses (Atlanta)

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Well, we saw practice and qualifying already for Atlanta! Now all to do is set our lineups and watch the race. I love Atlanta, because you can pass here. There's 500 miles of racing, so there will be a lot of different faces at the front. I do believe the best drivers will be near front of the field. I think it takes a certain level of skill to run well here. So logically guys like Harvick, Keselowski, Busch, Logano, Johnson, Larson etc are guys that comes first to mind. You usually slid all over the place at this track and it is hard to find grip, especially after the tires really fall off.

If you are like me, I like to take some gambles. Super risky gamble that will hurt my lineup potential? No, but I do think there are some sleepers and dark horses laying out there. They may be more hidden under the surface than the obvious choices. So let's get started!

Sleepers -

Ricky Stenhouse Jr - I said Stenhouse Jr was my personal favorite sleeper this weekend and nothing has changed. He's qualified 4th and looked very good on Saturday. He was only 13th on the speed charts, but he was ranked 4th in best-ten lap average. Halfway through the session, RFR's twitter account tweeted out that he was ranked 12th in green flag speed average. And at end of final practice, Stenhouse said that his car was pretty sporty! What do I make of all of that? Well, I would say that Stenhouse Jr is a pretty good fantasy option overall. He has speed this weekend, much like he did last season. He's finished 10th and posted 10.0 ARP in 2016 event at Atlanta. I think he is better this weekend than last season. Remember, Stenhouse was a consistent top 15 threat on this type of track in 2016. I think he's capable of being a top 10 or top 12 finisher!

Ryan Newman - I probably should list Newman as a dark horse as he is a pretty successful and established driver in this series. So it is kinda of disrespectful to list him as a sleeper. At the same time, he hasn't really done much in number of years now. His last win came in 2013 and we are now closing in on 4 years without a win for him. But this might be his weekend though. He's qualified 2nd and has a rocketship since unloading. He's topped the first practice session on Friday and was 6th on Saturday's afternoon. In final practice (on Saturday), he was ranked first in best-ten lap average. To back up his speed, many people has been talking about him as a threat to win. Not something we had ever heard since him joining RCR.

AJ Dinger - There's a couple other good sleepers such as Ty Dillon, Jamie Mac and Austin Dillon, but I feel like Dinger is the one driver that is getting the most overlooked. The fact that he is being overlooked is great. Because I love him for the race. He's finished 3 of the final 4 races on the 1.5 mile tracks inside the top 10! Two seasons ago, he's finished inside the top 10. Since the 2010 season, he has 4 Top 14 finishes. That's over 50% of the time, for the record. Since joining the #47 team, he's been boom or bust really. Finishes of 7th and 14th (in 2013 and 2015). While finishing 40th and 27th in 2014 and 2016. In fact, Dinger has finished inside the top 14 in 2015, 2013 and 2011. Why is that important? Those are all odd years. 2017 is a odd year, too. History says he is due for a top 14 finish. Also, he's been good this weekend overall. Qualified 20th, but was 4th in final practice. He's low on the ten-lap average chart, but I am okay with that. Dinger should be able to move up at least a few spots and challenge for a top 15 or top 17 finish.

Dark Horses -

Chase Elliott - A lot of people consider Elliott as a favorite, but I do not. Elliott is definitely a dark horse though. Not trying to slander Elliott here, but he haven't won a cup race yet. So it is hard for me to consider him as a favorite. He's defintely fits under the dark horse catgoery. A driver's whose has great potential to run up front but not expected to necessarily win. Elliott will start from 11th and has a fast car for the race. He was 2nd on the 20-lap average chart and 9th on the ten-lap average chart. Usually both of those are great signs for a driver. However, Atlanta is a tough place to figure out. Also it is hard on tires and the lap times really fall off here. With that said, tire management is very key here. I think Elliott is one of the best drivers at doing that. He can save his stuff, while still being fast. Something not a lot of young drivers can do.

Kyle Larson - A driver that I had some questions about heading into the weekend was Kyle Larson. But I like him a lot after watching Saturday's practice. Larson qualified 8th and seems to have a pretty good car overall. On the best-ten lap average chart, he's ranked 11th in average speed. It is impressive since he made his run nearly on lap 30. While basically the first ten drivers did on it in the first ten laps. To put it comparison, Keselowski was the only driver among the top ten to post his ten lap average after lap 1-10. Larson was 2nd driver to do that. Yes, I know just ten lap is a small simple size, I agree. However, Larson's spotter thought his driver looked pretty good in practice too. On top of that, his teammate was ranked first on the 20-lap average chart. Then take into consideration that Atlanta takes skill behind the wheel to exceed. It is in the driver's hands. And Kyle Larson is one of the first drivers we think of when it comes to driving talent.  I love all of that! Kyle Larson should be a top 10 player today, if not more!

Alright that's all I got! Good luck!

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