Sunday, February 04, 2018

2018 Fantasy Nascar Preview: Kevin Harvick

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Kevin Harvick had a very good 2017 season. I would have to say that the 4 team wasn't quite on the same level as 2014, 2015 and 2016. But I think that was expected though. He took a step back, but in the end he was still in contention for the championship all season long and made it to Homestead.

As usual, Harvick was still very strong on the intermediate. He wasn't dominant like we saw with Chevy, but still he was very consistent and still contended for top 5 finishes on a weekly basis. On the 1.5 mile tracks, he was the best on in 2017. In 11 races, he posted 6 Top 5 finishes (1 win - Texas) and 10 Top 9 finishes. In 8 of those 10 finishes, he led at least 10 laps in each race. It is hard to pick a couple tracks for Harvick. But Texas, Kansas and Atlanta are his best three intermediate tracks, in my opinion. At Kansas over the past couple seasons, he has been amazing here. In his last 9 races at Kansas, he has compiled 6 finishes of 3rd or better. Including 4 of his last 6 races overall. No, that's not a typo. That's just filthy right there!

At Texas, he has been very good as well. He just haven't had many bad races since joining the 4 team. In fact, I don't think he had a bad race (minus 2014 spring race with blown engine) at Texas. In his last 7 races at Texas, Harvick haven't finished worse than 10th. In his last 7 races overall, he has compiled 5 finishes of 4th or better. In 6 of his last 7 races at Texas, Harvick posted 6 finishes of 6th or better. In 10 of the last 12 races, he has finished in the top 10 at Texas Motor Speedway! At Atlanta, he has been nearly untouchable lately. In his last four seasons, Harvick has been the best driver in the series and nobody can touch him. He has led 116 or more laps in each race. In 5 of his last 6 races here, he has led at least 101 laps or more. You get the picture, right? In his last three seasons, Harvick has compiled 3 straight finishes in the top 9. Including 9th last season. In two of the last three seasons, he has had a dominant racecar. When I say dominant, I mean flat out kicking the living shit out of the entire field. He should had won last year, when he led 292 laps but faded after a late caution.

On the shorter flats, he is pretty underrated for the most part. He's the best at Phoenix, even though he didn't score any wins or laps led in 2017 there. At Phoenix, he has been impressive for a number of years. In 11 of his last 12 races, Harvick has compiled 11 finishes of 6th or better. During that 12-race span, he has compiled 8 finishes of 2nd or better. From 2013 to 2016, he posted 5 wins with at least 139 laps led in each race. During that span, his numbers were just off the charts. In his last three races, he haven't led any laps though. But he has finishes of 5th, 6th and 4th. Crazy to think that his last three races are considered a letdown, right? For the normal driver out there, then sure. But not Harvick, he has set the bar so high!

Richmond and New Hampshire both has been very good for Harvick. At Richmond, he's really consistent. In his last 8 races, he has compiled 6 finishes of 11th or better. In 5 of his last 7 races, Harvick has finished inside the top 5. Including 3 of his last 4 races, he has finished in 5th place. Last September, he finished 15th. One of two non-top 5 finishes since April 2014. At New Hampshire,  he also been really good. I would say that is the most underrated here of the three tracks. In his last 7 races, he has compiled 5 finishes of 5th or better. In July 2014 (8 races ago), he was running top 5 with a couple laps ago. Then he ran out of fuel. In September 2016, he was dominant. He led 216 laps, before running out of fuel again. In last September's race, he finished 36th after being in an accident. So he basically has finished in the top 5 in every race, except the races he had issues. The shorter flats will be great tracks for him in 2018!

 Larger flats in recent seasons has been another strong area for Kevin Harvick and the 4 team! Pocono is the better track and that's saying something, too. Pocono has been amazing track for him. In his first start with SHR at Pocono, he finished 14th. He had a great car, but he ended 2 laps down after pitting for a flat tire. He got both laps back, but it wasn't the very end of the race. He rally for 14th place, but he was good enough to challenge for the win, in my opinion. Since then, he has been the guy that has set the bar here. In his last 7 races at Pocono, he has compiled 5 finishes of 4th or better. Including 4 finishes of 2nd or better. In his last three races at Pocono, he has compiled finishes of 4th, 2nd and 2nd. Over the past two seasons, he finishes has improved (or stayed the same) in every race. In June 2016, he finished 9th. His next three finishes has been 4th, 2nd and 2nd. Is a win in his future in 2018? The trends are on his side on this one!

At Indy, I think he is pretty underrated and never get enough credit for exactly how good he is there. He has been very consistent over the past 4 seasons. In his last 4 races at Indy, he's posted 4 straight finishes of 8th or better. He led a career-high 75 laps in 2015 on his way to 3rd place finish. He should had won that race, but there was a lot of late caution. He had some really good restarts, but the last few didn't go his way. And as you know, restarts can be a major factor in the outcome. In the last two seasons, he haven't been quite as good. Still got decent finishes though. He finished 6th in each of the last two seasons. He was top 10 good and probably closer to the top 5 overall.

Bristol and Martinsville are the next two tracks that I would like to look at. Bristol has been an awesome track for Kevin Harvick! In 2014 and 2015, he had a mix bag of results in both seasons. But over his last 5 races, I don't think any driver has found more success at Bristol. In his last 5 races, he has finished 8th or better in all 5 races. In that 5-race span, he has 3 top 5 finishes. Including a win back in August 2016. His worst finish in that span is 8th place during last August's race. But I thought that 8th place finish was pretty impressive. Considering that he started 29th that night. He could have easily found trouble coming up the field. As for Martinsville, it has been more up and down. I would say that Martinsville is one of Kevin's worst tracks on the schedule. In his last four races here, Kevin has compiled 3 finishes between 17th-20th. He finished 5th in last October's race. In 4 of his last 7 races overall, he has finished 17th or worse. His three good finishes are: 5th, 8th and 8th. In the spring race 2015, he was very good. I thought he was capable of winning. Before he had issues during the race. I cannot remember what exactly happen (without going back and rewatching it), but I remember him having to rally late for a top 10 finish.

Road courses has been good to Kevin Harvick, but he haven't always gotten the finishes that he deserves. At Sonoma, he has been getting the finishes lately though. In his last three seasons, he has compiled 3 straight finishes of 6th or better. In 2014, he finished 20th. But he had a very good long run car. I would say that he had the car to beat on the long run. But he got into a wreck and had to tough it out rest of the day. In 2017, he scored his first win at Sonoma Raceway. In 3 of his last 4 races at Sonoma, he has led at least 1 lap. Prior to that, he only has led a lap in two of his first 13 races. At Watkins Glen, he haven't found quite as much success as Sonoma. In his last 6 races at Watkins Glen, he has finished 13th or worse in 4 times. He finished 17th and 32nd in each of the last two seasons. He had finishes of 3rd and 7th in 2014 and 2015 though. Road courses could go either way for Kevin in 2018. But I would have to say that true about any driver honestly. As the road courses has become wildcard races.

The plate tracks will be interesting place for Kevin Harvick in 2018. He has found a lot of success throughout his career at both Daytona and Talladega. With that history, he also get held to high standards. As he doesn't always live up to his hype on these tracks. Of course, anything can happen in these races. So that's not on him though. I am not blaming him, but he haven't exactly gotten the finishes we would like to out of him. In his last 8 plate races, he has just two top 10 finishes. At Talladega, he has finished 15th or worse in 4 of his last 5 races. Prior to that, he had 4 straight top 12 finishes from October 2013 to May 2015. At Daytona, he is complete boom or bust lately. In his last 7 races, he has 3 finishes in the top 4. He also has 4 finishes of 22nd or worse.

Kevin Harvick will be one of the best drivers in 2018 season, no doubt! He has the potential to challenge for the championship once again. At the intermediate tracks, he will be strong. Not just strong, but winning capable on a weekly basis. The three tracks that he will have best shot at winning on are Kansas, Texas and Atlanta. You can also throw Michigan in there as another great track for him (even though I didn't get chance to touch on that earlier). As for the flats, he will be very good there. I think he is pretty underrated at Richmond, New Hampshire and Indy. All three tracks get overshadow at his track records on Pocono and Phoenix. All five flats are very good places to use him in 2018. Road courses like with any other driver will be a guessing game, as we seen how these races can go. Harvick has performed very well at Sonoma lately, well having some mix results at Watkins Glen. As for the plate tracks, I am leaning towards avoiding him in 2018. As he haven't really lived up to our standards of him at either Daytona or Talladega. I expect another really strong season out of Kevin Harvick. In fact, I am expecting him to be even better than he was in 2017!

***All stats are from DriverAverages.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18