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Kurt Busch is coming off a disappointing 2017 season, a year where I really expected some great things out of him. I had high hopes for him and he didn't live up to my expectations. He had his worst season since the 2014 and that's bad. He was barely better than his first year with SHR. And he struggled that season to adjust to joining SHR. In 2015 and 2016, he was really good. He posted some really good numbers in both seasons. But in 2017, he took a nosedive in every MAJOR category. In average start, average finish, wins, poles, laps led, etc. You get the picture, right?
I think he will rebound in 2018 and outperform his 2017 numbers, but the question is how much? I thought SHR moving to Ford really hurt Kurt. I think that hurt the whole organzation as whole. Now everyone had a year under their belt. I think the cars will be better than they were last season. Even Harvick struggled to be that race-winning threat (and I mean truly a threat from start to finish) from time to time. So it was understandable to see Kurt struggle in 2017. I think the most mind-blogging aspect was watching how up and down he was overall. I couldn't judge him at all. Every week it was something with him.
Intermediate tracks will obviously be a good area for him, with the horsepower advantage he has on majority of the competition. His top intermediate tracks would be Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas. Of the three, I would have to say that his success at Atlanta stands out. It ranks as his 9th-best track for his career, but that also with all of the ''bad runs'' he had early in his career. In 6 of his first 11 races from 2000 to 2006, he finished outside of the top 30. Since then, he has really turned the corner. So much that it is considered among his very best tracks now. In 10 of his last 13 races at Atlanta, he has finished in the top 11. During that span, he also has 8 finishes in the top 7. Including two wins during 2009 and 2010 spring races at Atlanta. Since the 2010 season, he has been amazing at Atlanta. In 5 of his last 8 races, he has finished in the top 5. Since that 2010 season, he has developed a pattern: Every other race resulting in a top 5 finish.
Charlotte has been a great track since joining SHR and things look promising for 2018 as well. In his last 7 races at Charlotte, he has finished 6 times in the top 11. In 4 straight races (prior to finishing 22nd in last fall's race), he finished 5th-8th place. From May 2015 to May 2017, he finished in the top 10 in 5 straight races. At Texas, he is pretty similar overall. Since the 2014 season, he has finished 6 of his last 7 races in the top 14. During that span, he's finished in the top 10 in 5 of 7 races.
Shorter flats is a spot that has been a good spot for Kurt in recent seasons and you can expect more of the same in 2018. At Richmond, he has been very good lately. Over his last 10 races at Richmond, he has finished 9 of 10 races in the top 15. While posting 8 finishes in the top 10. Overall, 5 of his last 7 races has ended in 8th or better. Including an win back in 2015. He dominated that event. He led 291 laps on his way to victory lane. Another very good track for Kurt is Phoenix. I don't think enough people know exactly how good he is at this place. And he has a teammate that may be pretty good here, too. At Phoenix (or as it called now ISM), he had two poor finishes in 2017. Where he finished 21st and 25th. Prior to that, he had 5 straight top 7 finishes at this track. Overall 7 of his last 11 races here has ended in 7th or better. Then there's New Hampshire! And it has been a tough track for Kurt lately. Over his last 10 races here, he has only compiled 4 Top 15 finishes during that span. He has finishes of 8th and 5th over his last three races here. But he also has 4 finishes of 19th or worse in his last 7 races at New Hampshire. Since the 2011 season, he has only finished in the top 20 in about 50% of his races.
Pocono been very good lately for Kurt Busch! In terms of final finishing position, it ranks as one of his best tracks. In 14 of his last 16 races, he has finished 13th or better. More recently, he has finished 10th or better in 7 of 10 races. In those 10 races, he also has finished in the top 5 in 50% of those races. He won back in 2016 after leading 32 laps to victory lane. He wasn't a contender early in the race, but then he came out of nowhere and charged to the lead. In 2017, he posted finishes of 13th and 4th. At Indy, Kurt has always struggled on. That haven't changed in recent seasons and that probably won't change in 2018. In his last 5 races at this track, he's finished three times in the top 14. But to show you how bad he has been over the years: Since 2008, he has finished 6 times outside of the top 20. He has only made 10 starts since the 2008 season. And his best finish during that 10-race span is 8th back in 2015.
Martinsville and Bristol are the next two tracks that I would like to look at! One of his career worst tracks is Martinsville and I still consider it one of his worst tracks right now. He won back in 2014, but that was a fluke win, in my opinion. His car was taped up to hell from an incident with Brad Keselowski. He won, so I will give him props for that. He has made 7 starts since winning in spring 2014. In 5 of those 7 races, he has finished 22nd or worse. During that span, his best finish was 13th. His last three races haven't ended too well for him. His results in the last three races are: 22nd, 37th and 22nd. At Bristol, he is better on. But he use to be great earlier in his career here though. As of recently, he is all or nothing. In his last 10 races at Bristol, he has posted 4 Top 5 finishes. Problem? His other 6 races ended in 15th or worse. Including 4 of 6 races ending in 25th or worse. His finishes in those 10 races (in order - most recent finishes first): 5th, 25th, 38th, 3rd, 14th, 15th, 5th, 35th, 31st and 4th. See anything you don't like about the pattern of those finishes? For one, he doesn't have any back-to-back ''solid'' finishes. And another, his finishes outside of the top 10 have all came in pair. So the trends says that he will finish at least 14th or worse in 2018 in both races. Not good for Kurt!
Kurt Busch had never won at a plate track prior to winning the 2016 Daytona 500, but that doesn't mean he wasn't good before that though. He's pretty underrated still, in my opinion. At Talladega, he's very good. In 6 of his last 7 races at Talladega, he has finished in the top 12. Prior to finishing 25th in last fall's race, he had 4 straight top 10 finishes. In his last 5 races, he has results of 25th, 6th, 4th, 8th and 10th. At Daytona, he is similar on. In his last 6 races at Daytona, he has finished 4 of 6 races in the top 10. In half (50%) of those races, he has finished in the top 5. While finishing 5 of his last 8 races overall in the top 10. It is hard to hate Kurt Busch on the plate tracks honestly. I sure don't!
Road courses are always good places to use Kurt and 2018 will likely be no difference, too! At Watkins Glen, he has very good numbers lately. Over his last 5 races at WGI, he has 5 straight top 11 finishes.While 4 of those 5 races has ended in the top 10. Dating back to the 2007 season, Kurt has only two finishes outside of the top 11 at Watkins Glen! At Sonoma, he may be even better on. Since 2011, he has been on it! Currently, he's on a 7-race top 12 streak at this track. During those 7 races, he has finished five times in the top 7. From 2011 to 2015 (5 races), he had 4 Top 5 finishes. In 2017, he had a down season at Sonoma. He posted finishes of 7th and 10th. Yes, top 10 finishes are considered a down year for Kurt Busch at Sonoma!
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Kurt Busch is coming off a disappointing 2017 season, a year where I really expected some great things out of him. I had high hopes for him and he didn't live up to my expectations. He had his worst season since the 2014 and that's bad. He was barely better than his first year with SHR. And he struggled that season to adjust to joining SHR. In 2015 and 2016, he was really good. He posted some really good numbers in both seasons. But in 2017, he took a nosedive in every MAJOR category. In average start, average finish, wins, poles, laps led, etc. You get the picture, right?
I think he will rebound in 2018 and outperform his 2017 numbers, but the question is how much? I thought SHR moving to Ford really hurt Kurt. I think that hurt the whole organzation as whole. Now everyone had a year under their belt. I think the cars will be better than they were last season. Even Harvick struggled to be that race-winning threat (and I mean truly a threat from start to finish) from time to time. So it was understandable to see Kurt struggle in 2017. I think the most mind-blogging aspect was watching how up and down he was overall. I couldn't judge him at all. Every week it was something with him.
Intermediate tracks will obviously be a good area for him, with the horsepower advantage he has on majority of the competition. His top intermediate tracks would be Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas. Of the three, I would have to say that his success at Atlanta stands out. It ranks as his 9th-best track for his career, but that also with all of the ''bad runs'' he had early in his career. In 6 of his first 11 races from 2000 to 2006, he finished outside of the top 30. Since then, he has really turned the corner. So much that it is considered among his very best tracks now. In 10 of his last 13 races at Atlanta, he has finished in the top 11. During that span, he also has 8 finishes in the top 7. Including two wins during 2009 and 2010 spring races at Atlanta. Since the 2010 season, he has been amazing at Atlanta. In 5 of his last 8 races, he has finished in the top 5. Since that 2010 season, he has developed a pattern: Every other race resulting in a top 5 finish.
Charlotte has been a great track since joining SHR and things look promising for 2018 as well. In his last 7 races at Charlotte, he has finished 6 times in the top 11. In 4 straight races (prior to finishing 22nd in last fall's race), he finished 5th-8th place. From May 2015 to May 2017, he finished in the top 10 in 5 straight races. At Texas, he is pretty similar overall. Since the 2014 season, he has finished 6 of his last 7 races in the top 14. During that span, he's finished in the top 10 in 5 of 7 races.
Shorter flats is a spot that has been a good spot for Kurt in recent seasons and you can expect more of the same in 2018. At Richmond, he has been very good lately. Over his last 10 races at Richmond, he has finished 9 of 10 races in the top 15. While posting 8 finishes in the top 10. Overall, 5 of his last 7 races has ended in 8th or better. Including an win back in 2015. He dominated that event. He led 291 laps on his way to victory lane. Another very good track for Kurt is Phoenix. I don't think enough people know exactly how good he is at this place. And he has a teammate that may be pretty good here, too. At Phoenix (or as it called now ISM), he had two poor finishes in 2017. Where he finished 21st and 25th. Prior to that, he had 5 straight top 7 finishes at this track. Overall 7 of his last 11 races here has ended in 7th or better. Then there's New Hampshire! And it has been a tough track for Kurt lately. Over his last 10 races here, he has only compiled 4 Top 15 finishes during that span. He has finishes of 8th and 5th over his last three races here. But he also has 4 finishes of 19th or worse in his last 7 races at New Hampshire. Since the 2011 season, he has only finished in the top 20 in about 50% of his races.
Pocono been very good lately for Kurt Busch! In terms of final finishing position, it ranks as one of his best tracks. In 14 of his last 16 races, he has finished 13th or better. More recently, he has finished 10th or better in 7 of 10 races. In those 10 races, he also has finished in the top 5 in 50% of those races. He won back in 2016 after leading 32 laps to victory lane. He wasn't a contender early in the race, but then he came out of nowhere and charged to the lead. In 2017, he posted finishes of 13th and 4th. At Indy, Kurt has always struggled on. That haven't changed in recent seasons and that probably won't change in 2018. In his last 5 races at this track, he's finished three times in the top 14. But to show you how bad he has been over the years: Since 2008, he has finished 6 times outside of the top 20. He has only made 10 starts since the 2008 season. And his best finish during that 10-race span is 8th back in 2015.
Martinsville and Bristol are the next two tracks that I would like to look at! One of his career worst tracks is Martinsville and I still consider it one of his worst tracks right now. He won back in 2014, but that was a fluke win, in my opinion. His car was taped up to hell from an incident with Brad Keselowski. He won, so I will give him props for that. He has made 7 starts since winning in spring 2014. In 5 of those 7 races, he has finished 22nd or worse. During that span, his best finish was 13th. His last three races haven't ended too well for him. His results in the last three races are: 22nd, 37th and 22nd. At Bristol, he is better on. But he use to be great earlier in his career here though. As of recently, he is all or nothing. In his last 10 races at Bristol, he has posted 4 Top 5 finishes. Problem? His other 6 races ended in 15th or worse. Including 4 of 6 races ending in 25th or worse. His finishes in those 10 races (in order - most recent finishes first): 5th, 25th, 38th, 3rd, 14th, 15th, 5th, 35th, 31st and 4th. See anything you don't like about the pattern of those finishes? For one, he doesn't have any back-to-back ''solid'' finishes. And another, his finishes outside of the top 10 have all came in pair. So the trends says that he will finish at least 14th or worse in 2018 in both races. Not good for Kurt!
Kurt Busch had never won at a plate track prior to winning the 2016 Daytona 500, but that doesn't mean he wasn't good before that though. He's pretty underrated still, in my opinion. At Talladega, he's very good. In 6 of his last 7 races at Talladega, he has finished in the top 12. Prior to finishing 25th in last fall's race, he had 4 straight top 10 finishes. In his last 5 races, he has results of 25th, 6th, 4th, 8th and 10th. At Daytona, he is similar on. In his last 6 races at Daytona, he has finished 4 of 6 races in the top 10. In half (50%) of those races, he has finished in the top 5. While finishing 5 of his last 8 races overall in the top 10. It is hard to hate Kurt Busch on the plate tracks honestly. I sure don't!
Road courses are always good places to use Kurt and 2018 will likely be no difference, too! At Watkins Glen, he has very good numbers lately. Over his last 5 races at WGI, he has 5 straight top 11 finishes.While 4 of those 5 races has ended in the top 10. Dating back to the 2007 season, Kurt has only two finishes outside of the top 11 at Watkins Glen! At Sonoma, he may be even better on. Since 2011, he has been on it! Currently, he's on a 7-race top 12 streak at this track. During those 7 races, he has finished five times in the top 7. From 2011 to 2015 (5 races), he had 4 Top 5 finishes. In 2017, he had a down season at Sonoma. He posted finishes of 7th and 10th. Yes, top 10 finishes are considered a down year for Kurt Busch at Sonoma!
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
