Saturday, February 24, 2018

2018 Fantasy Nascar Update (Atlanta)

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Fantasy Nascar Update -

1. Kyle Busch - Between Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, it is tough to choose an odds on favorite to win. I think it gonna be a duel between the two of them for much of the event. Kyle Busch has a very fast car for this weekend. He had the best-20 lap average in final practice and he will start on the pole. His lap times were impressive and to no shocker he is one of the drivers to beat. He is a former winner at this track and he has the car to do it again. Don't be suprised to see him lead a lot of laps whenever we go green.

2. Kevin Harvick - Harvick has dominated this place over the years and he might do it again. He does not have the fastest car for a single lap, but over a long green flag run that 4 car will be a serious problem. I tracked his lap times on Saturday and they were awesome. It takes him awhile, but he eventually will be at top of the charts in terms of lap times. He loves taking the short way around the track, it saves his tries, etc. However, it is not the fastest way around the track. You can go faster in the higher grooves. He is losing speed at start of the runs, but his lap times usually remains more consistent on the long runs.Heading into the race, I view him as a top 3 driver.

3. Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson started off practice with just a couple laps run. Then he followed it up with a very long 29-lap run. He was very fast. I tracked most of that run and he kept knocking off the lap times. What stands out most to me? His lap times later in the runs were still very good. At end of that long green flag run, he was still running strong lap times. In fact, at end  of the run his lap times were a little better than his lap times in middle of the run. That could had been traffic or something, but it is still worth knowing. Larson was pretty happy with his car in practice. He really liked the balance in that car and some pretty good speed, too. He was 6th on the 20-lap average according to the guys on Fox Sports 1. Larson finished 2nd in last season's race and he is capable of being a top 5 guy once again.

4. Kurt Busch - The driver of the No.41 car has had a lot of success at Atlanta over the years. He just loves this place and his overall stats are really good. 8 of his last 11 races at Atlanta has ended in 7th or better. In 5 of his last 8 races, he has finished 6th or better. More recently, he has posted 4 top 7 finishes in just his last 4 races at Atlanta. Whatever way you want to slice it, he is just that good here. He is starting from 7th this weekend and he seems to have a pretty good racecar. He was pretty far down the running order in terms of fastest-single lap. But he broke the top 5 in best-20 lap averages according to the guys on Fox Sports 1. I wouldn't doubt that, either. I usually don't rank him this high, but he have the numbers and speed to make it up, in my opinion.

5. Martin Truex Jr - If Truex Jr wouldn't have to start at back of the pack, I would hands down put him ahead of most of these guys. He would be in my top 3 at least. He has a very fast car, but problem is he is starting deep in the field. That would be a major problem next week at Las Vegas. But Atlanta, there are a lot of chances to make passes. There are multiple grooves you can use to get around someone. I have no doubt that the 78 car is good enough to challenge for a top 5 finish, especially after the numbers he posted in 2017 and the speed he showed in practice. Question will he get there? Time will tell!

6. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has a really good car this weekend. He is starting from inside of the top 10 and he has a really solid car on the long run. He sounded pretty pleased with his car after practice and Jeff Gordon really liked what he saw from the 14 car. He mentioned him a few times during the broadcast. The No.14 car was 2nd on the best-20 lap average chart according to Jeff Gordon. Being high on that chart is important because it shows the strength of a driver on the longer runs. It sets nothing in stone, but it could be something though. Bowyer and his Ford teammates all qualified and practice well.  

7. Ryan Blaney - Blaney I think will be good this weekend at Atlanta. He probably showed the most speed of the Penske cars, in my opinion. Pretty close between him and Logano though. He wasn't nothing super special, but he looks better than any of his other Atlanta weekends so far. This is probably the best he has looked at this track since his rookie season here. There isn't a lot to say about Blaney honestly. He has a good enough car to challenge for a top 10 finish, but he kinda stuck in that 6th-11th range.

8. Joey Logano - I would rank Logano higher, if I knew more what to expect out of him. We all know he is capable of really strong results on the 1.5 mile tracks. Problem is, he is coming off a lackluster 2017 season where he missed the playoffs. I am still iffy on him overall and not sure what to expect. With no real data to go, we are kinda guessing here. I thought he had good speed in that car from the one run that I did track on him. But of course that was only one run, too. At end of practice, his spotter told him his final run held on pretty good. I love that right there. I feel good about feedback like that. If you are looking for a dark horse pick, then he might be your man!

9. Brad Keselowski - Keselowski will start from the 5th position at Altanta, but I am not gonna say that I am super high on him though. After his interview on Fox Sports 1 after practice, I am not feeling too confident in him. He didn't sound like a driver that sounded to happy about his car. I never feel too good when a driver says he doesn't have a good feeling for his car. He might be better in the race than practice, but I am not really counting on that. He just didn't show that much in practice and that is the only thing we are going on right now.

10. Ricky Stenhouse Jr - Heading into the week, I really like Ricky Stenhouse Jr and I loved what I saw from him this weekend so far. He qualified in 6th and he looked really good with his lap times on Saturday, too. He is a secret at Atlanta for some reaosn and I think he can legit contend for a top 10 finish and maybe then some. His lap times didn't fall on the long runs, either. He remained consistent on a long run and that is exactly what you want to see. The driver of the No.17 car fits perfect into the driving style at Atlanta. I think the slicker it is, the better the pick the 17 car will be.

Just missed

Ryan Newman

Jimmie Johnson

Paul Menard

Erik Jones

Chase Elliott

***All stats are from Driveraverages.com and FantasyRacinCheatSheet.com

Twitter - @JeffNathans18