Welcome to TimersSports
Kyle Larson is coming off his best season ever in his young cup career. He will enter year no.5 as a cup driver and one many are thinking championship. The 25 year old driver from Cali had a very impressive season in 2017. He was the 3rd-best driver in the series, before that terrible stench of bad luck at end of the season. He went to victory lane 4 times, before getting eliminated early on in the Nascar playoffs. And most of his bad finishes in 2017 weren't his fault. When he finished races in 2017, he was near a top 3 driver every time.
The intermediate tracks will obviously be a strong area for him in 2018, as it has been in recent seasons. But in 2017, I thought he took it to entire new level. His best three intermediate tracks are Michigan, Dover and Homestead. You can probably throw in a couple other tracks on the list as well.
At Michigan, he has been nearly unstoppable in recent seasons. He could had a shot at winning in his very first start at Michigan. He was on the same pit strategy as race winner's Jimmie Johnson in June 2014. But he got a penalty late that costed him the eventual track position. In June 2015, he was competitive again. He was top 10 good for the event and had realistic shot at winning that rain-shortened race. He was leading the race, after a caution. And rain was very close to the track. He pitted for fuel late in the race. About 2 laps after he pitted, the yellow flag was display for rain. That ended the race. Fast forward to June 2016, he had a top 3 car and finished 3rd to Logano and Elliott. That was the last time that he didn't win a race at Michigan. Since that race, he has won three straight races at Michigan now.
Dover is one of Larson's best tracks and it doesn't take long to figure that out, either. He's very good at Dover, I would say that it is considered one of his top 5 tracks. In 8 career starts, he has posted 7 Top 11 finishes. In the playoff race in 2016, he had some very bad luck and finished 25th. Otherwise, he has been a top 10 machine outside of his first career start. In 5 of his last 7 starts here, he has finished 6th or better. In 2017, he finished 5th and 2nd. He looked great in both races. He had the car to beat for much of the spring race and led 242 laps. In the fall's race, he wasn't quite as good but still lead over 100 laps on his way to 5th place finish. In his last 4 races at Dover, he has finished 3 of those 4 races in the top 5.
Homestead is not only a great track for Larson, but I would have to say that it one of his favorites. He loves this kind of track and the results has been impressive. The last few years, he has been on a different level on the long runs at Homestead. He is the bar at Homestead, despite not collecting any wins yet. Three seasons ago, he should had won. He started mid-pack but had a great car on the long run. He was leading when a late caution came out. Two seasons ago, he dominated. He was the class of the field all day long. Problem? He wasn't nearly as good on the short runs. On the long runs, he would clock 5-seconds on the field. He got beat by Johnson on a late restart. In season's race, I thought he had the car to beat at end of the race. His lap times were better than the 78 and 18 on the final run, until he caught them. Then his lap times started to really go down. We may never know, but I think a lot of that had to do with not getting involved in the championship fight. I think Larson backed off out of respect for Busch and Truex Jr. He didn't want to be ''that guy'' who cost something a championship. Could I be wrong? Sure, but that what logic says.
Shorter flats are good for Larson and he may be a bit underrated at them. Sure, he will be a little inconsistent, but he is still trying to find himself as a driver. Richmond is a very good track for him overall. In 8 career starts, he does not have a finish worse than 16th. And that finish came in his very first start back in 2014. In 5 of his last 7 races here, he has finished 12th or better. In the fall races, he has been very good overall. He has finished 12th or better in every start. Including scoring his first non-intermediate track win in the last race held here.
At New Hampshire, he has had his moments for sure. From July 2015 to July 2016 (3 races), he had three straight finishes of 31st, 17th and 17th. Since? He has 3 finishes of 10th, 2nd and 2nd. In his first season, he posted finishes of 2nd and 3rd during his first two career starts at New Hampshire. So to say the least, Kyle has been up, down and now seem to heading back in the right direction. It has been a roll coaster ride for Kyle Larson at New Hampshire. Hopefully, things will stay consistent from the 2017 season for him at this place. At Phoenix (ISM), he has been good but not over the top yet. In 8 career starts, he has posted 7 Top 20 finishes. While finishing 40th back at Phoenix in the most recent race. Larson probably had one of the strongest cars in the early stages of the race. If he didn't blow his engine, I think he would had finished very high in the running order. In November 2016, he finished 3rd. And he finished 2nd in spring 2017. A pair of very solid performances. I am not willing to say that he is going to victory lane in 2018 here, but I wouldn't be surprised at all, either.
The larger flats are where Larson will be very difficult to outperform on a regular basis. He is extremely consistent so far in his career at both Pocono and Indy. Which is why it was so shocking that Larson had finishes of 7th, 33rd and 28th in 2017 on the larger flats tracks. His lone good finish was 7th in the first Pocono race. In 12 career starts on both Pocono and Indy (combined), he had NO FINISHES worse than 12th place in his first 10 starts. His most recent two starts has ended in 28th and 33rd. Isn't that just amazing? I mean, it isn't amazing he finished poorly. But that's impressive. What it also tells me? It was probably a fluke. Trends aren't just numbers. They tell a story. And the story it is telling us is that Larson is very very good on the large flat tracks. Two bad finishes (with bad luck - by the way) doesn't change that. At least not until those bad finishes start to develop a negative pattern.
Bristol and Martinsville are two different tracks for him. One place is his favorite racetrack and the other he haven't found much success on. At Martinsville, he has finished 5 of his 8 career races in 19th or worse. He had his best race in 2016 spring race. He finished 3rd, after running in the top 10 for most of the day. In his next couple races, he would go on to boarder-top 10 caliber driver. He had finishes of 17th and 14th in those races though. Let's just say that he needs to do some work at Martinsville. Then there is Bristol! Larson in the past has said this is his favorite racetrack on the schedule. In 2017, he was very strong at Bristol. He had finishes of 6th and 9th. In the spring race, he was very good. He had the best car for the entire. He led nearly half of the laps for the race, before ending up in 6th place. In the summer race, he just wasn't quite as good. Before the 2017 season, he had three straight races of 24th of worse. He was strong in each of those races or at least had great potential. It is hard to bet against a guy like Kyle Larson at Bristol. He just loves this place and seems to run well every time
Plate tracks has been good and bad for him in recent seasons. He really struggled at Daytona in his first couple season, but seem to be getting better over the last year and a half. But I don't buy what he is selling though. Deep down, I still think that he hates these tracks. Especially Daytona, since he had 5 finishes of 29th or worse in 8 career starts. He had three straight finishes of 12th, 6th and 7th from February 2016 to February 2017. At Talladega, he has proven to be more consistent in his finishes overall. In 5 of his 8 career starts, he has finished 17th or better. In 4 of those races, he has finished in the top 13. In his last three races here, he has posted finishes of 13th, 12th and 6th. Like I said, he is getting better on the plate tracks. But you know, I don't really buy into it. He need to have another solid year on the plates to convince me.
Road courses are underrated for Kyle Larson and he is pretty good at them. This is impressive for a driver who has pretty limited experience on them in the cup series. He blew me away in 2014, when he was as good as he was at the road courses. And as time goes on, he is only getting better and better. He is still searching for that key breakout race though. At Sonoma, he has a best career finish of 12th. He also has had a lot of bad luck that has derailed some very solid performances. Don't discount him by any means. He is capable of being a top 10 driver with some serious upside. At Watkins Glen, he had a strong debut where he finished 4th. He charged through the field on that final run and finished 4th. He came from mid-pack, too which was very impressive. Since? He has finishes of 12th, 23rd and 29th. He had a lot of bad luck in those three races. In 2016, he finished 29th. He was very strong. He ran top 5 or top 10 for most of the event. He was running 4th on the final lap, before getting dumped by Dinger on the final lap. In last season's race, he started off very well. But then he just sucked after that. There's nothing I can say other than he was just terrible. He wasn't competitive at all and got lapped under green.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
Kyle Larson is coming off his best season ever in his young cup career. He will enter year no.5 as a cup driver and one many are thinking championship. The 25 year old driver from Cali had a very impressive season in 2017. He was the 3rd-best driver in the series, before that terrible stench of bad luck at end of the season. He went to victory lane 4 times, before getting eliminated early on in the Nascar playoffs. And most of his bad finishes in 2017 weren't his fault. When he finished races in 2017, he was near a top 3 driver every time.
The intermediate tracks will obviously be a strong area for him in 2018, as it has been in recent seasons. But in 2017, I thought he took it to entire new level. His best three intermediate tracks are Michigan, Dover and Homestead. You can probably throw in a couple other tracks on the list as well.
At Michigan, he has been nearly unstoppable in recent seasons. He could had a shot at winning in his very first start at Michigan. He was on the same pit strategy as race winner's Jimmie Johnson in June 2014. But he got a penalty late that costed him the eventual track position. In June 2015, he was competitive again. He was top 10 good for the event and had realistic shot at winning that rain-shortened race. He was leading the race, after a caution. And rain was very close to the track. He pitted for fuel late in the race. About 2 laps after he pitted, the yellow flag was display for rain. That ended the race. Fast forward to June 2016, he had a top 3 car and finished 3rd to Logano and Elliott. That was the last time that he didn't win a race at Michigan. Since that race, he has won three straight races at Michigan now.
Dover is one of Larson's best tracks and it doesn't take long to figure that out, either. He's very good at Dover, I would say that it is considered one of his top 5 tracks. In 8 career starts, he has posted 7 Top 11 finishes. In the playoff race in 2016, he had some very bad luck and finished 25th. Otherwise, he has been a top 10 machine outside of his first career start. In 5 of his last 7 starts here, he has finished 6th or better. In 2017, he finished 5th and 2nd. He looked great in both races. He had the car to beat for much of the spring race and led 242 laps. In the fall's race, he wasn't quite as good but still lead over 100 laps on his way to 5th place finish. In his last 4 races at Dover, he has finished 3 of those 4 races in the top 5.
Homestead is not only a great track for Larson, but I would have to say that it one of his favorites. He loves this kind of track and the results has been impressive. The last few years, he has been on a different level on the long runs at Homestead. He is the bar at Homestead, despite not collecting any wins yet. Three seasons ago, he should had won. He started mid-pack but had a great car on the long run. He was leading when a late caution came out. Two seasons ago, he dominated. He was the class of the field all day long. Problem? He wasn't nearly as good on the short runs. On the long runs, he would clock 5-seconds on the field. He got beat by Johnson on a late restart. In season's race, I thought he had the car to beat at end of the race. His lap times were better than the 78 and 18 on the final run, until he caught them. Then his lap times started to really go down. We may never know, but I think a lot of that had to do with not getting involved in the championship fight. I think Larson backed off out of respect for Busch and Truex Jr. He didn't want to be ''that guy'' who cost something a championship. Could I be wrong? Sure, but that what logic says.
Shorter flats are good for Larson and he may be a bit underrated at them. Sure, he will be a little inconsistent, but he is still trying to find himself as a driver. Richmond is a very good track for him overall. In 8 career starts, he does not have a finish worse than 16th. And that finish came in his very first start back in 2014. In 5 of his last 7 races here, he has finished 12th or better. In the fall races, he has been very good overall. He has finished 12th or better in every start. Including scoring his first non-intermediate track win in the last race held here.
At New Hampshire, he has had his moments for sure. From July 2015 to July 2016 (3 races), he had three straight finishes of 31st, 17th and 17th. Since? He has 3 finishes of 10th, 2nd and 2nd. In his first season, he posted finishes of 2nd and 3rd during his first two career starts at New Hampshire. So to say the least, Kyle has been up, down and now seem to heading back in the right direction. It has been a roll coaster ride for Kyle Larson at New Hampshire. Hopefully, things will stay consistent from the 2017 season for him at this place. At Phoenix (ISM), he has been good but not over the top yet. In 8 career starts, he has posted 7 Top 20 finishes. While finishing 40th back at Phoenix in the most recent race. Larson probably had one of the strongest cars in the early stages of the race. If he didn't blow his engine, I think he would had finished very high in the running order. In November 2016, he finished 3rd. And he finished 2nd in spring 2017. A pair of very solid performances. I am not willing to say that he is going to victory lane in 2018 here, but I wouldn't be surprised at all, either.
The larger flats are where Larson will be very difficult to outperform on a regular basis. He is extremely consistent so far in his career at both Pocono and Indy. Which is why it was so shocking that Larson had finishes of 7th, 33rd and 28th in 2017 on the larger flats tracks. His lone good finish was 7th in the first Pocono race. In 12 career starts on both Pocono and Indy (combined), he had NO FINISHES worse than 12th place in his first 10 starts. His most recent two starts has ended in 28th and 33rd. Isn't that just amazing? I mean, it isn't amazing he finished poorly. But that's impressive. What it also tells me? It was probably a fluke. Trends aren't just numbers. They tell a story. And the story it is telling us is that Larson is very very good on the large flat tracks. Two bad finishes (with bad luck - by the way) doesn't change that. At least not until those bad finishes start to develop a negative pattern.
Bristol and Martinsville are two different tracks for him. One place is his favorite racetrack and the other he haven't found much success on. At Martinsville, he has finished 5 of his 8 career races in 19th or worse. He had his best race in 2016 spring race. He finished 3rd, after running in the top 10 for most of the day. In his next couple races, he would go on to boarder-top 10 caliber driver. He had finishes of 17th and 14th in those races though. Let's just say that he needs to do some work at Martinsville. Then there is Bristol! Larson in the past has said this is his favorite racetrack on the schedule. In 2017, he was very strong at Bristol. He had finishes of 6th and 9th. In the spring race, he was very good. He had the best car for the entire. He led nearly half of the laps for the race, before ending up in 6th place. In the summer race, he just wasn't quite as good. Before the 2017 season, he had three straight races of 24th of worse. He was strong in each of those races or at least had great potential. It is hard to bet against a guy like Kyle Larson at Bristol. He just loves this place and seems to run well every time
Plate tracks has been good and bad for him in recent seasons. He really struggled at Daytona in his first couple season, but seem to be getting better over the last year and a half. But I don't buy what he is selling though. Deep down, I still think that he hates these tracks. Especially Daytona, since he had 5 finishes of 29th or worse in 8 career starts. He had three straight finishes of 12th, 6th and 7th from February 2016 to February 2017. At Talladega, he has proven to be more consistent in his finishes overall. In 5 of his 8 career starts, he has finished 17th or better. In 4 of those races, he has finished in the top 13. In his last three races here, he has posted finishes of 13th, 12th and 6th. Like I said, he is getting better on the plate tracks. But you know, I don't really buy into it. He need to have another solid year on the plates to convince me.
Road courses are underrated for Kyle Larson and he is pretty good at them. This is impressive for a driver who has pretty limited experience on them in the cup series. He blew me away in 2014, when he was as good as he was at the road courses. And as time goes on, he is only getting better and better. He is still searching for that key breakout race though. At Sonoma, he has a best career finish of 12th. He also has had a lot of bad luck that has derailed some very solid performances. Don't discount him by any means. He is capable of being a top 10 driver with some serious upside. At Watkins Glen, he had a strong debut where he finished 4th. He charged through the field on that final run and finished 4th. He came from mid-pack, too which was very impressive. Since? He has finishes of 12th, 23rd and 29th. He had a lot of bad luck in those three races. In 2016, he finished 29th. He was very strong. He ran top 5 or top 10 for most of the event. He was running 4th on the final lap, before getting dumped by Dinger on the final lap. In last season's race, he started off very well. But then he just sucked after that. There's nothing I can say other than he was just terrible. He wasn't competitive at all and got lapped under green.
***All stats are from DriverAverages.com
Twitter - @JeffNathans18
