Saturday, July 05, 2014

Fantasy Nascar Preview: New Hampshire

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We are headed north from Daytona to New Hampshire.Located in the northeastern part of the United States. Is an 1.058 mile racetrack. This flat track may be only 1 mile in length , but its high speeds sure doesn't act like it. Its the first of three straight flat tracks on the schedule. From a fantasy standpoint , this is one of my favorite tracks on the schedule. Lets get started!

1-Jamie Mac: JMac been a popular pick over the recent weeks. So I don't expect that change much this week. Jamie actually been solid on similar tracks this season. Surprisingly his record doesn't reflect that (mainly due to terrible luck). Over past 4 races , Jamie hold an 15.75 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10, 3 Top 20s, 0 laps led and 76.3 driver rating.

2-Brad Keselowski: Keselowski once again will unload fast and qualify up front as well. Do the same on Sunday. But that seems to be the common trend each week. Over past 4 races , He holds an 6.5 average finish , 2 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s , 4 Top 15s, 23 laps led , and 105.8 driver rating. The big question is in allocations leagues , will this be one of his best points races of 2014.

3-Austin Dillon: I don't really see the point of using Dillon this week. Especially since Jeff Burton is entered. I mean , Dillon will be fine no doubt. But Jeff Burton is a super value deal in limited usage leagues (like Yahoo). There a few tracks coming up which I plan to use Dillon. Not here though.

4-Kevin Harvick: Harvick have been freaky fast everywhere in 2014. Don't expect that to change. Unfortunately his pit crew act like they have been drinking free Budweisers. Over past 4 races , Kevin holds an 11.5 average finish , 2 Top 10s, 4 Top 20s, 0 laps led and 89.1 driver rating.

5-Kasey Kahne: Kahne is one of my dark horse picks for New Hampshire. Kahne record is a bit misleading. His average should be a bit higher. People don't quite realize how good Kasey been here lately. Over past 4 races here , Kasey holds an 13.75 average finish , 1 win, 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , 3 Top 20s. Last fall , Kahne got into the wall resulting in a 37th place finish. Which really kills his average since 2012.

10-Danica Patrick: Danica have been a nice value pick lately (especially in Yahoo). But again there no reason to consider Danica with Burton entered. Danica have a 32.0 average finish. With a best of 27th in two career starts. I rather play the "wait and see" game on Danica at New Hampshire. Maybe she becomes relevant for the second time around.

11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin absolutely love New Hampshire. What I saw at Kentucky was really encouraging for JGR as a whole. Hopefully it continues going forward. Denny have excelled at flat tracks in his career which is a positive. He finish 4th at his last flat track effort. Over past 4 races here , Denny holds an 9.0 average finish , 1 win , 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , 3 Top 20s, 343 laps led and 117.2 driver rating.

14-Tony Stewart: Smoke is always a good option at New Hampshire. But weather he deserves a spot on my team this week is questionable still. Personally I think there better tracks left on the schedule to use him. Over past 3 races , He holds a 15.0, 1 top 10 , 2 Top 20s , 122 laps led and 96.7 driver rating. Smoke missed last fall race due to injury.

15-Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is underrated option at flat track altogether. But being overlooked at here is ridiculous. Before a down year finish wise at New Hampshire. Bowyer was consider a great option. His flat track resume can back that up. Over past 4 races here, Clint holds an 9.25 average finish , 2 Top 5s, 4 Top 20s , 6 laps led , and 94.9 driver rating.

18-Kyle Busch: Busch and JGR cars have dominated this place lately. The JGR cars are clearly down on power , but that didn't stop them from knocking off solid finishes at Kentucky. So all hope isn't lost. But I will likely leave them off least for another week. Over past 4 races here , Rowdy holds a 12.0 average finish , 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , 3 Top 20s , 173 laps led and 109.0 driver rating.

20-Matt Kenseth: Kenseth dominated last fall race here and held off teammate Kyle Busch. But that was his most recent Sprint Cup Series win. JGR cars just owned this joint in 2012 and 2013. In laps led , wins , overall  driver rating as a organization  , etc. Kenseth been solid on similar tracks in 2014. Over past 4 races , He holds a 9.25 average finish , 1 win , 1 Top 5, 2 Top 10s , 4 Top 20s, 140 laps led and 107.3 driver rating.

22-Joey Logano: Logano is a former winner here. Logano haven't found victory lane here in awhile. But he was solid with Penske last year here. Which is encouraging from a fantasy standpoint. Over past 4 races here, He holds a 19.0 average finish , 1 Top 10, 3 Top 20s , 3 laps led and 73.9 driver rating. Take out a 40th place  finish , JoLo average is an 12.0 with a worse finish of 14th (twice).

24-Jeff Gordon: Remember when I said last week that Gordon have some great tracks coming up? Well New Hampshire is definitely one of them. Gordon recently tested here was reportedly "wicked fast". This is bad news for the other 42 drivers. Over past 4 races , He holds a 8.5 average finish , 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10s, 48 laps led and 110.1 driver rating.

27-Paul Menard: Menard will probably once again somehow go below everyone radar. Which should make him a nice sleeper option. Over past 4 races here , Paul holds an 17.0 average finish , 3 Top 20s , 0 laps led and 77.1 driver rating. His stats doesn't stand out. But he is a consistent driver. Mainly Top 15s though. But I wouldn't rule out a top 10 though. Afterall , the RCR cars tested here.

31-Ryan Newman: Newman seems to always find himself off most fantasy teams. But that's why he is a underrated option. He actually been a fairly reliable option in 2014. Especially if you are looking for a top 15 option. His value should be at an all time high going forward (as he coming up on some great tracks).  Over past 4 races , He holds a 18.75 average finish , 2 Top 10s , 3 Top 20s , 2 laps led and 83.6 driver rating. This been a great track for Newman in the past. Expect more of the same.

42-Kyle Larson: Larson will make my team. But I have no intentions to use him (least in Yahoo). I believe Larson will impress everyone once again. Unfortunately I am steering away from him for two reasons: 1) He never raced at New Hampshire in Cup. 2) He have had some bad luck lately.  Use him if you must , but I have him penciled in at Bristol or Atlanta as possible wins destinations.

48-Jimmie Johnson: Johnson have been the best driver not to win over the past two seasons at New Hampshire. Johnson can be used anywhere really. So choose carefully. Johnson have performed well on flat tracks in his career. So expect , Johnson to be one of the cars to beat. Over past 4 races , Johnson holds an 4.75 average finish , 2 Top 5s , 4 Top 10s, 5 laps led, and 110.0 driver rating. His worst finish in that span is 7th. What most impressive is his average starting position is 20.3. Passing here can be difficult.

55-Brian Vickers: Vickers value is at an all-time low. Especially after that very disappointing Kentucky. Most times , Vickers would be on everyone radar without question. But he have unfortunately burned most bridges with players. But I am fairly high on him this week. He won this race last year. With a different CC of course. But this team is capable of giving Brain a good car. Over past four races here , Brain holds an 8.0 average finish , 1 win, 1 Top 5, 3 Top 10s, 4 Top 15s, 21 laps led and 93.2 driver rating.

66-Jeff Burton: Burton is suppose to be entered this week. So double check the entry list on Monday. But in limited starts leagues , Burton is absolutely gold or close to it. New Hampshire is Burton best track. He is four time winner. I expect a top 20 out of Burton , if not more. He is a lock for Yahoo.

78-Martin Truex Jr: Truex is having a up and down year for sure. So selecting him probably isn't the brightest idea. He have potential , but his bad luck makes him non-fantasy relevant. Look somewhere also for a deep sleeper option.

88-Dale Earnhardt jr: Dale Jr have been a great option in 2014. At New Hampshire , expect that to continue. He actually been one of the best values in just about every format. He hold the 8th-best average finish (9.25) since 2012. He has led 17 laps and holds a 99.9 driver rating over the past 4 New Hampshire races held.

99-Carl Edwards: Edwards isn't the first guy I would select here. But there definitely are worst options laying out there. Edwards typically will run in the mid to late teens ,then sneak himself into the top 10 at the end. Over past four races here, Edwards holds an 13.5 average finish , 2 Top 10s, 4 Top 20s, 0 laps led and 81.7 driver rating.

*All stats from DriverAverages .com

Have a wonderful weekend / week

Twitter: @MichelleRizzo5

Thanks for reading ,

Michelle Rizzo