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The final 10 races are upon. There no holding back now. This weekend we are at Chicagoland. 1 of 5 1.5 mile racetrack layouts. Chicago is pretty worn out and typically the same drivers who were fast at Atlanta , Kentucky , Texas , etc will be fast again. Looking at drivers performance from those races should be good references. This type track is fairly predictable and fantasy friendly. Unless something crazy happens , we already know who will (or could) contend for a top 10 on Sunday without any practice.
1-Jamie Mac: JMac is on a roll lately 2 Top 10s in the past 3 races. Including an top 5 at Richmond. Chicago been a good track for him lately , but still an questionable option. His stats on the 1.5 mile layouts been consistent in the teens. Since 2012 , JMac have recorded an 20.0 average finish (2 races), 1 Top 20 , 3 laps led and 65.4 driver rating.
2-Brad Keselowski: Bad Brad made the field look silly at Richmond. He gonna try to repeat that at Chicago. If you have any Penske left , the time is now. Over the past two races here , BK have compiled 4.0 average finish , 1win , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s , 78 laps led and 120.4 driver rating.
3-Austin Dillon: Dillon finished 20th at Richmond. Honestly I feel like the faster tracks , Dillon will excel on (sooner or later). Chicago fits into that category. I have Dillon with top 25 potential and top 20 upside.
4-Kevin Harvick: KH best remaining track outside of Phoenix , may be Chicago. I definitely would say so. Chicago been a great place for him. Over the past 2 races , KH have compiled 7.5 average finish , 1 Top 5 , 1 Top 10, 2 Top 20s , 2 laps led and 89.2 driver rating.
5-Kasey Kahne: KK makes the chase , but he is not a viable option in my eyes. His inconsistent , unpredictable and inability to finish up front on the big stage drops his value significantly. Its should be noted , Chicago been a great track for Kahne. Over the past two races here , KK does have an 7.5 average finish and 109.9 driver rating. His above average driver rating suggests he have ran close to the front and didn't luck into good finishes.
10-Danica Patrick: Chicago been a good track for Danica. Actually really good. In two career starts , she have recorded an 20.5 average finish. Including an best of 20th and worst of 25th. Kansas and Atlanta are the same type track as Chicago. Maybe she is in for another impressive run for Sunday.
11-Denny Hamlin: Hamlin and JGR struggled (as I predicted in the Fantasy nascar update) at Richmond. The Intermediate racetracks have been a bright spot though. Unfortunately Chicago recently have not. Over the past 2 races here , DH have compiled 24.5 average finish , 1 Top 20, 1 lap led and 79.5 driver rating. Not sure what expect from Hamlin.
14-Tony Stewart: There isn't a driver out there with better stats at Chicago then Smoke recently. 2 of his past 3 races here have ended in a Top 5. Sadly I don't think Smoke will be getting the best equipment for here on out. Top 15 sounds realistic.
16-Greg Biffle: RFR went from looking really good at Atlanta to looking like the RFR team we saw all year at Richmond. Unfortunately RIR left more questions then answers. Can the RFR cars be trusted? I don't know. I thought they were turning the corner and bang hit a brick wall. Over the past 2 races here , The Biff have compiled 14.5 average finish , 2 Top 20s , 2 laps led and 84.7 driver rating.
18-Kyle Busch: Rowdy at his best track once again disappointed. Hard to justify where to use him. Chicago been one of his best tracks over the past few years. Over the past 2 races , Rowdy have compiled 3.0 average , 2 Top 5s , 2 Top 10s , 67 laps led and 119.9 driver rating.
20-Matt Kenseth: MK have been up and down lately. Hard to say where to use him. He the defending winner of this race. Over the past 2 races here , MK have compiled 9.5 average finish , 1 win, 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 20s , 91 laps led and 110.2 driver rating. MK been better at night races then day races on similarity 1.5 mile racetracks.
22-Joey Logano: JoLo been one of the most consistent drivers on 1.5 mile layouts. Penske strength really have shown on this type track in 2014. Especially in laps led , average speed , average finish , wins and laps completed in Top 15. Both Penske drivers ranked near the top every category. Logano started on the pole a year ago , but had a mechanical problem after a rain delay. He led the first 32 laps from the pole.
24-Jeff Gordon: Gordon will likely be the pre race favorite heading in. It not surprising either. Outside of Las Vegas , Gordon have had a car capable winning on 1.5 mile layouts. Which speaks volumes on how great Gordon actually have been. Chicago been a good track for Gordon. His lone win came in 2006. Despite 2 of the last 3 races have resulted outside the top 20. Gordon holds an 11.62 average finish (13 career races). Which is 6th best all-time ( 4th best with drivers who have least 10 starts).
27-Paul Menard: Menard is quietly have a nice season. PM isn't known for awesome driving abilities or top 10 finishes. But at Intermediate racetracks , he been better then most think. In fact , outside of Atlanta he scored all top 15s. Including 2 Top 5s and 5 Top 10s. He been pretty good at Chicago lately too. Including 18.5 average finish and 72.3 driver rating.
31-Ryan Newman: Newman is having a fantastic season. I believe the best yet to come. Team 31 are starting to hit on cylinders. Like teammate Paul Menard , this type track been their strength in 2014. Newman actually been very good at Chicago recently. Over the past two races here , RN have compiled 7.5 average finish (T-5th best) , 1 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s , 1 lap led and 92.0 driver rating. In 12 career races , Newman have an 14.5 average finish and 1 win. Which includes 3 Top 5s (40%) and 8 Top 10s (66%).
42-Kyle Larson: Larson missed out on the chase , but him missing the playoff cut would only benefit him in the long run. Chicago is a worn out racetrack. He have done great at the other worn out racetracks. He should be an top 15 car with top 10 upside.
48-Jimmie Johnson: This may be the first time Johnson ever been this much under the radar. People are worrying about what happened to Jimmie after Richmond. I am already hearing fantasy players say , "Johnson just isn't gonna flip a switch". Remember he had worse finishes during the final races of the regular season in 2012 and 2013. I am just not buying Johnson looking sluggish in the chase. I could be wrong. Also Johnson Chicago stats are pretty impressive. Over the past two races here , JJ have compiled 3.5 average finish ,2 Top 5 , 2 Top 10s , 212 laps led and 134.0 driver rating. In 12 career races , Johnson holds 8.9 average finish and surprising 0 wins. Including 7 Top 5s (58%) and 10 Top 10s (83%).
55-Brian Vickers: Once again not that high on Vickers. I mean , he consistency overrated. Personally I think he get more credit then he deserves. His last top 10 came in July. Not exactly something I would feel comfortable about my fantasy pick. Also should be noted , Vickers haven't raced at Chicago in awhile.
88-Dale Jr: Dale have cooled considerably since his win at Pocono. I expect a awesome chase run , but realistically it could take 2 or 3 before the mojo kicks in. This been a good track to Dale Jr. In 13 career starts , He holds an 15.85 average finish. 9 of his 13 starts have ended with a finish of 20th or better.
99-Carl Edwards: Edwards and RFR was a nice streak of finishes in top 10s before hitting a cold brick wall at Richmond. Now they are faced with Chicago. Not exactly a good track either. Edwards been consistent at best (in the past). Over the past 2 races , Edwards have compiled 15.0 average finish , 2 Top 20s , 1 laps led and 80.6 driver rating. In 9 career races , Edwards holds 16.0 average finish , 0 wins , 3 Top 5s , 3 Top 10s , 7 Top 20s and 57 laps led.
Also check out: NascarBTW . Great blog. Give it a check out. I always check there for schedules , entry lists , newst paints schemes,etc. Very useful information.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
