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Aric Almirola isn't the most talented driver nor does he drives for a top tier race team, but he have proven he can be a legit fantasy option on the intermediate tracks, short tracks and short flat racetracks. Last season he had his best season as a full-time Cup driver and posted a career high 17.8 average finish. While also posting a career high Top 5 finishes (4) and Top 20 finishes (28). So 2015 was a pretty good year for Aric Alimorla. Can he top it in 2016? I don't think so. Even though he will come very close to it though. I think he will be fairly consistent in 2016, but I think his equipment will hold him back from knocking off many top 5 and top 10 finishes. He will likely have a state line of 3 to 5 Top 5s, 6 to 8 Top 10 finishes, 25+ Top 20 finishes. Those are where his numbers have hovered so far with RPM and honestly I don't think his numbers will change that much in 2016.
I think the short tracks are where Aric will perform his best at in 2016. He been pretty good at these venues in 2015. On the short tracks in 2015, he supported 13.7 average finish with 17.7 average running position and 79.4 driver rating. I remember Aric saying Bristol is one of his favorite racetracks on the schedule. He was rock solid last season at this short track. Last season he posted finishes of 13th and 17th. Over the previous 4 Bristol races (minus 2014 summer race - wreck), he have supported 12.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 85.9 driver rating. His 3rd place in spring 2014 really enhanced his stats though. He was strong in that race and probably remains his best career race at Bristol. In those other 3 races? He have managed finishes between 13th-17th. That's where I would expect him to finish at in 2016. He also pretty solid at Martinsville. Aric wasn't any thing special last season at Martinsville as he posted finishes of 16th and 12th. But he been very consistent since joining RPM. He have finished 21st or better in every start with RPM dating back to 2010. Overall 5 of the past 8 races have ended inside the top 16. With 4 of 5 races ending inside the top 12. Including 3 top 8 finishes. His latest? 2014 where he finished 8th. Much like Martinsville (and Bristol to lesser extent), he have been pretty consistent at Richmond! Over the previous 4 Richmond races, he have supported 12.8 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 79.0 driver rating. He haven't performed overly strong, but still pretty solid. He have reeled off 6 straight top 20 finishes at Richmond dating back to the 2013 season. In that 6-race time period, he have knocked off a top 10 each season. Finished 8th in 2013 (spring race), 10th in 2014 (summer race) and 4th in 2015 (summer race). His other three finishes ended in 17th-20th place though.
Short flat racetracks should be another strong spot for Aric Almiorla. Last season his numbers were very poor, but he usually a strong performer at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season at short flat racetracks, he supported 21.8 average finish with 24.3 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. But to be fair, he had that 43rd place DNF at the second New Hampshire, which pretty much kills his stats. So let's look at the other three races instead. At his non-trouble races at Phoenix and New Hampshire, he supported 14.7 average finish with 19.3 average running position and 75.7 driver rating. Prior to finishing 43rd at New Hampshire last fall, he have finished 3 of the previous 5 races inside the top 15. Including 2 top 6 finishes. His latest coming in fall 2014 in 6th place. Over the previous 4 races at New Hampshire (minus last season wreck), he have supported 16.3 average finish with 19.8 average running position and 73.6 driver rating. He been a little better at Phoenix though. Over the previous 4 Phoenix races, he have supported 15.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 77.5 driver rating. At Phoenix, Aric have been a very consistent driver since joining RPM. He have finished 10th-19th in his past 8 Phoenix races. From Fall 2012 to spring 2015 (6 races), he finished 15th-19th in every race. His other two finishes ended in 10th and 12th. That happened in Spring 2012 (12th) and Fall 2015 (10th).
The intermediate racetracks will be another solid spot for Aric Almirola and the 43 team in 2016! He was pretty solid last season on this type track. In 16 races during the 2015 season (excluding the Homestead race - incident), he have supported 14.1 average finish with 17.3 average running position and 78.8 driver rating. Noticeably his average finish is better than Jamie McMurray (14.4), Denny Hamlin (14.8), Paul Menard (15.9), Jimmie Johnson (17.2), Kyle Larson (19.2) and Austin Dillon (22.6). All of those drivers equal to or greater quality rides than Aric. He wasn't anything great when looking at his finishes individually, but they are pretty impressive after they start to add up. In 2015, he had 2 Top 5s (13%), 4 Top 10s (25%), 10 Top 15s (63%) and 13 Top 20s (81%). Should be noted he scored the 10th-most Top 15 finishes and 10th-most Top 20 finishes in the series. What made him such a powerful fantasy option last season in second half of the season was his consistency. On top of his consistency, he was very under the radar. In certain fantasy leagues that made him a excellent fantasy value. From Kentucky to Texas (7 races - minus Kansas race; had power steeling issues), he supported 11.4 average finish with 15.6 average running position and 84.0 driver rating. He managed 3 Top 10s and 6 Top 15 finishes in those 7 races. His lone non-top 15 finish came at Texas in 18th place. The tracks that I would really consider him at would be Dover (best intermediate racetrack in my opinion), Charlotte, Texas and probably Atlanta.
Large flat racetracks was not the kindest to him in 2015 He struggled at both venues last season, but it had a lot to do with 2 DNFs though. In 2015 on the large flats, he supported 33.0 average finish with 26.7 average running position and 56.2 driver rating. Both Pocono and Indy ranks as two of his worst racetracks over the past two seasons. From career point of view, he been better though. He probably a little better at Indy than Pocono, but he have also raced there less than times though. Over the past two seasons at Indy, he have supported 29.5 average finish with 23.5 average running position and 62.4 driver rating. Even though he haven't as bad those numbers suggest though. In his first three starts, he had finishes between 17th-21st. Last season was the first time he didn't finish on the lead lap. He finished 38th. Overall he isn't too bad at Indy I would say, even though the sample size is pretty small so far. He been worse at Pocono, but I think his recent DNFs there makes him look way worse than he actually is. Over the previous two seasons at Pocono (4 races), he have supported 29.5 average finish with 25.8 average running position and 58.3 driver rating. Ugly numbers at Pocono the past two seasons, but there is bright side. His stats are deflated a bit here because of his DNFs in August 2014 and July 2015 (35th and 43rd place finishes). Outside of those two races, he have finished his last 5 races at Pocono in 18th-22nd place range.
Restrictor plates will allow Aric to be a solid driver, but I am not banking on anything beyond a finish between 13th-20th though. In 2014, he scored his lone cup win for RPM. However that was screwy race from the start, so I wouldn't put too much stock into that. Over the previous 4 Daytona races, he have supported 22.3 average finish with 22.5 average running position and 72.4 driver rating. He seems to have a lot of mix finishes at Daytona. One top 15 finish with one finish outside the top 30 every season since 2013. That's not something I am really thrilled about, since that basically tells me he have the same chance of wrecking out as he does finishing inside the top 15. At been little better at Talladega however. Over the previous 4 Talladega races, he have supported 20.8 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 65.8 driver rating. Aric just been consistent at Talladega. 8 of his past 10 Talladega races have ended inside the top 20 dating back to 2008 with Dale Earnhardt Inc. He have finished 13th-16th in 3 of his past 4 races at Talladega. Since being in the 43 car for RPM (starting back in 2012), he have finished 5 of his 8 races inside the top 16. 4 of those 5 races have ended inside the top 15. I would feel pretty good about picking Aric Almirola at Talladega, if I were simply looking for a consistent driver.
Road Courses isn't a great type of racetrack for Aric, but isn't necessarily a bad one either though. Last season he had finishes of 14th and 16th at Sonoma and Watkin Glenn. He been better at WGI than Sonoma in my opinion. Over the previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 17.0 average finish with 26.0 average running position and 70.0 driver rating. He have finished 16th or 18th in 3 of his past 4 races at Watkins Glenn. Since lone poor finish since joining RPM? 37th in 2013. He was involved in a accident though. He been pretty solid at Sonoma recently. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 18.5 average finish with 21.5 average running position and 67.4 driver rating. He finished 14th last season at Sonoma which marks his best finish on a road course. However his prior tow finishes have ended in 20th (2013) and 23rd (2014). In his two starts before that, he had finishes of 28th both times. Even though his first start in 2008 with Dale Earnhardt Inc was 4 years apart from his first RPM start at Sonoma in 2012. Overall I would call Aric a high-teen potential type driver. He should be good for a finish between 15th-20th most likely. Anything beyond that is probably unwishful thinking.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Aric Almirola isn't the most talented driver nor does he drives for a top tier race team, but he have proven he can be a legit fantasy option on the intermediate tracks, short tracks and short flat racetracks. Last season he had his best season as a full-time Cup driver and posted a career high 17.8 average finish. While also posting a career high Top 5 finishes (4) and Top 20 finishes (28). So 2015 was a pretty good year for Aric Alimorla. Can he top it in 2016? I don't think so. Even though he will come very close to it though. I think he will be fairly consistent in 2016, but I think his equipment will hold him back from knocking off many top 5 and top 10 finishes. He will likely have a state line of 3 to 5 Top 5s, 6 to 8 Top 10 finishes, 25+ Top 20 finishes. Those are where his numbers have hovered so far with RPM and honestly I don't think his numbers will change that much in 2016.
I think the short tracks are where Aric will perform his best at in 2016. He been pretty good at these venues in 2015. On the short tracks in 2015, he supported 13.7 average finish with 17.7 average running position and 79.4 driver rating. I remember Aric saying Bristol is one of his favorite racetracks on the schedule. He was rock solid last season at this short track. Last season he posted finishes of 13th and 17th. Over the previous 4 Bristol races (minus 2014 summer race - wreck), he have supported 12.0 average finish with 14.0 average running position and 85.9 driver rating. His 3rd place in spring 2014 really enhanced his stats though. He was strong in that race and probably remains his best career race at Bristol. In those other 3 races? He have managed finishes between 13th-17th. That's where I would expect him to finish at in 2016. He also pretty solid at Martinsville. Aric wasn't any thing special last season at Martinsville as he posted finishes of 16th and 12th. But he been very consistent since joining RPM. He have finished 21st or better in every start with RPM dating back to 2010. Overall 5 of the past 8 races have ended inside the top 16. With 4 of 5 races ending inside the top 12. Including 3 top 8 finishes. His latest? 2014 where he finished 8th. Much like Martinsville (and Bristol to lesser extent), he have been pretty consistent at Richmond! Over the previous 4 Richmond races, he have supported 12.8 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 79.0 driver rating. He haven't performed overly strong, but still pretty solid. He have reeled off 6 straight top 20 finishes at Richmond dating back to the 2013 season. In that 6-race time period, he have knocked off a top 10 each season. Finished 8th in 2013 (spring race), 10th in 2014 (summer race) and 4th in 2015 (summer race). His other three finishes ended in 17th-20th place though.
Short flat racetracks should be another strong spot for Aric Almiorla. Last season his numbers were very poor, but he usually a strong performer at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. Last season at short flat racetracks, he supported 21.8 average finish with 24.3 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. But to be fair, he had that 43rd place DNF at the second New Hampshire, which pretty much kills his stats. So let's look at the other three races instead. At his non-trouble races at Phoenix and New Hampshire, he supported 14.7 average finish with 19.3 average running position and 75.7 driver rating. Prior to finishing 43rd at New Hampshire last fall, he have finished 3 of the previous 5 races inside the top 15. Including 2 top 6 finishes. His latest coming in fall 2014 in 6th place. Over the previous 4 races at New Hampshire (minus last season wreck), he have supported 16.3 average finish with 19.8 average running position and 73.6 driver rating. He been a little better at Phoenix though. Over the previous 4 Phoenix races, he have supported 15.5 average finish with 16.5 average running position and 77.5 driver rating. At Phoenix, Aric have been a very consistent driver since joining RPM. He have finished 10th-19th in his past 8 Phoenix races. From Fall 2012 to spring 2015 (6 races), he finished 15th-19th in every race. His other two finishes ended in 10th and 12th. That happened in Spring 2012 (12th) and Fall 2015 (10th).
The intermediate racetracks will be another solid spot for Aric Almirola and the 43 team in 2016! He was pretty solid last season on this type track. In 16 races during the 2015 season (excluding the Homestead race - incident), he have supported 14.1 average finish with 17.3 average running position and 78.8 driver rating. Noticeably his average finish is better than Jamie McMurray (14.4), Denny Hamlin (14.8), Paul Menard (15.9), Jimmie Johnson (17.2), Kyle Larson (19.2) and Austin Dillon (22.6). All of those drivers equal to or greater quality rides than Aric. He wasn't anything great when looking at his finishes individually, but they are pretty impressive after they start to add up. In 2015, he had 2 Top 5s (13%), 4 Top 10s (25%), 10 Top 15s (63%) and 13 Top 20s (81%). Should be noted he scored the 10th-most Top 15 finishes and 10th-most Top 20 finishes in the series. What made him such a powerful fantasy option last season in second half of the season was his consistency. On top of his consistency, he was very under the radar. In certain fantasy leagues that made him a excellent fantasy value. From Kentucky to Texas (7 races - minus Kansas race; had power steeling issues), he supported 11.4 average finish with 15.6 average running position and 84.0 driver rating. He managed 3 Top 10s and 6 Top 15 finishes in those 7 races. His lone non-top 15 finish came at Texas in 18th place. The tracks that I would really consider him at would be Dover (best intermediate racetrack in my opinion), Charlotte, Texas and probably Atlanta.
Large flat racetracks was not the kindest to him in 2015 He struggled at both venues last season, but it had a lot to do with 2 DNFs though. In 2015 on the large flats, he supported 33.0 average finish with 26.7 average running position and 56.2 driver rating. Both Pocono and Indy ranks as two of his worst racetracks over the past two seasons. From career point of view, he been better though. He probably a little better at Indy than Pocono, but he have also raced there less than times though. Over the past two seasons at Indy, he have supported 29.5 average finish with 23.5 average running position and 62.4 driver rating. Even though he haven't as bad those numbers suggest though. In his first three starts, he had finishes between 17th-21st. Last season was the first time he didn't finish on the lead lap. He finished 38th. Overall he isn't too bad at Indy I would say, even though the sample size is pretty small so far. He been worse at Pocono, but I think his recent DNFs there makes him look way worse than he actually is. Over the previous two seasons at Pocono (4 races), he have supported 29.5 average finish with 25.8 average running position and 58.3 driver rating. Ugly numbers at Pocono the past two seasons, but there is bright side. His stats are deflated a bit here because of his DNFs in August 2014 and July 2015 (35th and 43rd place finishes). Outside of those two races, he have finished his last 5 races at Pocono in 18th-22nd place range.
Restrictor plates will allow Aric to be a solid driver, but I am not banking on anything beyond a finish between 13th-20th though. In 2014, he scored his lone cup win for RPM. However that was screwy race from the start, so I wouldn't put too much stock into that. Over the previous 4 Daytona races, he have supported 22.3 average finish with 22.5 average running position and 72.4 driver rating. He seems to have a lot of mix finishes at Daytona. One top 15 finish with one finish outside the top 30 every season since 2013. That's not something I am really thrilled about, since that basically tells me he have the same chance of wrecking out as he does finishing inside the top 15. At been little better at Talladega however. Over the previous 4 Talladega races, he have supported 20.8 average finish with 24.5 average running position and 65.8 driver rating. Aric just been consistent at Talladega. 8 of his past 10 Talladega races have ended inside the top 20 dating back to 2008 with Dale Earnhardt Inc. He have finished 13th-16th in 3 of his past 4 races at Talladega. Since being in the 43 car for RPM (starting back in 2012), he have finished 5 of his 8 races inside the top 16. 4 of those 5 races have ended inside the top 15. I would feel pretty good about picking Aric Almirola at Talladega, if I were simply looking for a consistent driver.
Road Courses isn't a great type of racetrack for Aric, but isn't necessarily a bad one either though. Last season he had finishes of 14th and 16th at Sonoma and Watkin Glenn. He been better at WGI than Sonoma in my opinion. Over the previous two seasons (2 races), he have supported 17.0 average finish with 26.0 average running position and 70.0 driver rating. He have finished 16th or 18th in 3 of his past 4 races at Watkins Glenn. Since lone poor finish since joining RPM? 37th in 2013. He was involved in a accident though. He been pretty solid at Sonoma recently. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 18.5 average finish with 21.5 average running position and 67.4 driver rating. He finished 14th last season at Sonoma which marks his best finish on a road course. However his prior tow finishes have ended in 20th (2013) and 23rd (2014). In his two starts before that, he had finishes of 28th both times. Even though his first start in 2008 with Dale Earnhardt Inc was 4 years apart from his first RPM start at Sonoma in 2012. Overall I would call Aric a high-teen potential type driver. He should be good for a finish between 15th-20th most likely. Anything beyond that is probably unwishful thinking.
Twitter - @MattAleza
