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Austin Dillon will drive the 3 car for RCR in 2016 and will complete in 3rd full season at the cup level. I think Austin took a step in the wrong direction. That was the first thing that surprised me in 2015 about him. The second? How little criticism he received from the general public. His numbers in his first seasons with RCR have not been very impressive, if I say so myself. In 72 starts in the 3 car, he have only managed 9 top 10 finishes and 46 Top 20 finishes. Last season was a backslide for Dillon. He was more competitive, but the problem is he was more inconsistent. I think many would agree that his consistency during his rookie season was what gave him most of his fantasy value. I don't think Dillon is developed well of a driver to go with consistency and still hold much fantasy value. Last season, we saw him run well in portion of races. However he never was able to follow through and finish out races.
I expect Dillon to be at his best on the intermediate racetracks. He was strong last season at times on this type racetrack and RCR as whole have thrived on this type track as well. On this type racetrack in 2015, he compiled 21.3 average finish, 16.3 average start, 19.3 average running position and 76.3 driver rating. Digging deeper into the numbers, he had 4 top 15 finishes and 9 Top 20 finishes. I would say Michigan is Dillon's best racetrack. Dillon have said this is one of his favorite racetracks and he really have had some bad luck here that have prevent him from quality finishes. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 19.0 average finish, 9.5 average start, 13.8 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. In August 2014, he was pretty competitive and should have finished inside the top 15 in that race. But after multiple late pit stop for a flat tire, he had to settle for 30th place finish and 3 laps down. In the event he held 13.0 average running position. If he didn't have that flat tire, I would say he finished somewhere in the middle teens probably. In last season's July race at Michigan, he was strong and finished 20th. That race had a crazy ending, so I will let him slide. In that event, he started 7th, finished 20th, held 14.0 average running position, 80.5 driver rating and completed 75% of the laps inside the top 15. Then he had his breakout race at Michigan last August. He was bad fast all weekend long and qualified 4th. But he had to change engines and go to rear. That didn't stop Austin from flying through the field and being a top 5 threat. He finished 4th in that race and held 11.0 average running position with 112.5 driver rating. Despite coming from the rear, he spent an impressive 80% of the laps inside the top 15. He finished 11th and 14th in 2013 races. Where he drove the 33 car (powered by RCR) and subbed for Tony Stewart in the 14 as well. I would say Charlotte is his second best racetrack on the schedule outside of Michigan. Pure numbers, I would consider this his best track not named Daytona. Over his first 4 starts at Charlotte, he have compiled 13.0 average finish, 19.3 average start position, 13.5 average running position and 85.3 driver rating. What makes this such a good track for Austin is that he have not had a bad race yet. His worst career finish? 16th. He finished 13th and 16th in his rookie season at this racetrack. Last season he was impressive at Charlotte. In 2 races at Charlotte in 2015, he compiled 11.5 average finish, 12.5 average start position, 10.0 average running position and 94.4 driver rating. In the second race, he was simply awesome. He had 8.0 average running position and 103.3 driver rating, while completing 93% of the laps inside the top 15. He will also perform well at other 1.5 milers like Texas and Kansas,etc. I expect Dillon to perform his very best on the intermediate racetracks and personally see him being a top 15 contender every time he on the track. I also believe we will see some top 10 finishes. At the same time, I do expect some poor finishes. Dillon is a developing driver, so he will likely take some of those strong runs and turn them into bad finishes.
Plates will be Dillon's next strongest track next to the intermediate racetracks. Dillon is a great plate racer and have proven himself so far in his young cup career. He been strong the past 2 seasons at Daytona and is probably considered his best racetrack with 3 top 10s in his past 4 starts. His lone non-top 14 finish came in his debut in 2013. He haven't been quite as good at Talladega though. In his debut in the 14 car in 2013, he was running top 5 on the final lap but got wrecked before coming back to the line. In 2014, he was very good and had finishes of 13th and 15th. Then last season he had finishes of 35th and 14th. So in 3 of his 4 races, he have finished inside the top 15. I think Dillon will have good shot as anyone, when it comes to finishing respectably. The one thing I like about Dillon? Since taking over the 3 car, he have not been involved in a wreck yet. In lone non-top 15 finish was because of an engine issue at Talladega.
I think he will also perform decently on the shorter flats (New Hampshire and Phoenix) and contend for least top 20 finishes every time he goes to the racetrack. I feel better about him at New Hampshire than Phoenix though. Over his first 4 starts at New Hampshire, he have compiled 13.8 average finish, 21.3 average start, 19.8 average running position and 72.8 driver rating. Last season he finished 22nd in the second race at New Hampshire. That was his career worst finish at the short flat track since debuting in the 3 car in 2014, where he finished 14th. He followed that 14th place finish with finishes of 11th and 8th. So in 4 career starts, he have 3 Top 14 finishes. Outside of Daytona, he cannot say that about any other racetrack. He holds more fantasy value here than most tracks, because he been consistent through two seasons. I am a big believer that consistency is the foundation for fantasy success. I think New Hampshire is a prime example of that. Last season at New Hampshire, he compiled 15.0 average finish, 20.0 average start, 19.0 average running position and 71.1 driver rating. At Phoenix over his past 4 races, he have compiled 24.3 average finish, 19.0 average start, 21.5 average running position and 66.5 driver rating. He finished 38th and 24th in 2014. Last season? He compiled 17.5 average finish, 13.5 average start, 15.5 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. He had finishes of 15th and 18th. In 4 races on the flats (on both New Hampshire and Phoenix), he compiled 16.3 average finish, 16.8 average start, 17.3 average running position and 75.7 driver rating. I expect a lot of teen finishes from Dillon on the shorter flats. I would say middle to high teens mostly, but he will probably flirt with the top 12 during the races often though.
Larger Flats of Pocono and Indy will give him more trouble than the shorter flats in 2016, but he still should be strong at both larger flats though. Last season on the larger flats, he compiled 19.0 average finish, 11.0 average start, 18.0 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. At Pocono over the past 4 races, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 8.0 average start, 16.8 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 13th. He have never finished outside of the top 19 at Pocono which is a very encouraging sign for his future production at the racetrack. Long as he keeps doing what he is doing, then he should be a solid fantasy pick at Pocono. He haven't great, but impressive considering so many young drivers struggle here. At Indy, he will probably struggle more at than Pocono. He only have made three career starts at the 2.5 mile racetrack. At Indy over the past 2 seasons , he have compiled 17.5 average finish, 21.0 average start, 19.5 average running position and 74.9 driver rating. He have finishes of 25th, 10th (2014 race) and 26th. In 2014 it was by far his best race to date at Indy. In that event, he started 17th (best starting position), finished 10th (Best finishing position), 13.0 average running position (best average running position) and 89.7 driver rating (best driver rating). I think he will perform well on the larger flats, but I do believe there will be a chance for inconsistency though. Dillon is a young driver and he will make mistakes. I think it will more than likely come at Indy than Pocono. I haven't seen a poor race from him yet at Pocono and until I do, there is no reason to jump off the Dillon's bandwagon. At Indy, I really haven't seen enough of him yet. Hard to say what he has in terms of fantasy upside and potential. Heading into the season, I would say high teens to low 20s. Just depends on the development as a driver throughout the season leading up to Indy. At Pocono, I think he will be a low to mid teen driver with upside to be a top 10 finisher. However I wouldn't bank on the top 10 finish though. His range will probably be 12th-16th realistically in my opinion.
Short tracks will likely be one of the toughest for Dillon to perform well on. Bristol is by far his best racetrack. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 15.5 average finish, 20.0 average start, 19.8 average running position and 70.0 driver rating. In 4 career starts, he have finished 3 of those 4 races inside the top 13. He should have finished inside the top 5 last April, but he had to pit for fuel. It didn't hurt him much since there were only 12 cars left on the lead lap though. last season at Bristol, he compiled 11.5 average finish, 14.0 average start, 12.5 average running position and 88.4 driver rating. He was awesome in the spring race, where he finished 10th and held 9.0 average running position. In the summer race, he wasn't quite as good. He finished 13th and held 16.0 average running position with 79.0 driver rating. Martinsville is his second best racetrack on among the short tracks. In 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 21.5 average finish, 26.3 average start, 23.0 average running position and 63.5 driver rating. You are probably thinking, ''Those are bad numbers, Jeff!'' You know what my favorite part about stats? They are misleading. Like Dillon's Martinsville stats. He finished 41st in last season race. His other three races? He had finishes of 18th, 12th and 15th. In those three races at Martinsville, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 27.7 average start, 21.0 average running position and 68.1 driver rating. At Richmond, he been probably at his worst among the three short tracks. He haven't had a good race yet and his best career finish at cup level is 20th. In 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 25.3 average finish, 21.8 average start, 21.8 average running position and 62.0 driver rating. In 3 of those 4 races, he have finished 27th. I am not kidding, he have finished 27th three times already in his career at Richmond. That isn't good at all and he will need to really pick up his production here in the next few seasons. On short tracks in 2015, he compiled 22.7 average finish, 18.7 average start, 19.7 average running position and 69.5 driver rating. I expect him to be a top 15 to top 20 on the short tracks, outside of Richmond I could see a lot of middle teen finishes probably. More specifically probably 14th-17th place range.
Road Courses will probably be the most unkind to him, personally I don't think Dillon is too talented on the road courses. He really haven't proven he is that good at Watkin Glenn or Sonoma. He been better at Sonoma than Watkin Glenn though. In 2 starts at Sonoma, he have compiled 17.0 average finish, 31.5 average start, 22.5 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. He have finished 17th in both of his starts at Sonoma. At Watkins Glenn, he have also made two starts. He have compiled 26.0 average finish, 20.5 average start, 24.0 average running position and 61.9 driver rating. Last season he finished 36th. In his debut at Watkin Glen in 2014, he finished a road course best-16th place. There not a whole lot of data to go on with Dillon regarding the road courses, so I am not going to really go into details. Especially since we only visit this type track twice per season. At this point, I think he is nothing more than a top 25 driver with top 20 upside because of his equipment.
Alright time to wrap this preview up! Austin Dillon is a inconsistent young driver who will often contend for quality finishes inside the top 15. I think he will have some really poor finishes and some really strong finishes as well. I think this is a huge season for Austin and the 3 season. I think he have to produce in 2016. I don't mean a win, I mean more top 5 and top 10 finishes. I think he is a few seasons away from winning his first race. First I think he needs to develop as a cup driver. In 2016, I expect him to be his best on the intermediate racetracks and Daytona. He will perform decently on the flats as well. I expect his worst days to be on the road courses probably. I think that is a type track, he is unproven at and lacks experience too.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Austin Dillon will drive the 3 car for RCR in 2016 and will complete in 3rd full season at the cup level. I think Austin took a step in the wrong direction. That was the first thing that surprised me in 2015 about him. The second? How little criticism he received from the general public. His numbers in his first seasons with RCR have not been very impressive, if I say so myself. In 72 starts in the 3 car, he have only managed 9 top 10 finishes and 46 Top 20 finishes. Last season was a backslide for Dillon. He was more competitive, but the problem is he was more inconsistent. I think many would agree that his consistency during his rookie season was what gave him most of his fantasy value. I don't think Dillon is developed well of a driver to go with consistency and still hold much fantasy value. Last season, we saw him run well in portion of races. However he never was able to follow through and finish out races.
I expect Dillon to be at his best on the intermediate racetracks. He was strong last season at times on this type racetrack and RCR as whole have thrived on this type track as well. On this type racetrack in 2015, he compiled 21.3 average finish, 16.3 average start, 19.3 average running position and 76.3 driver rating. Digging deeper into the numbers, he had 4 top 15 finishes and 9 Top 20 finishes. I would say Michigan is Dillon's best racetrack. Dillon have said this is one of his favorite racetracks and he really have had some bad luck here that have prevent him from quality finishes. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 19.0 average finish, 9.5 average start, 13.8 average running position and 85.0 driver rating. In August 2014, he was pretty competitive and should have finished inside the top 15 in that race. But after multiple late pit stop for a flat tire, he had to settle for 30th place finish and 3 laps down. In the event he held 13.0 average running position. If he didn't have that flat tire, I would say he finished somewhere in the middle teens probably. In last season's July race at Michigan, he was strong and finished 20th. That race had a crazy ending, so I will let him slide. In that event, he started 7th, finished 20th, held 14.0 average running position, 80.5 driver rating and completed 75% of the laps inside the top 15. Then he had his breakout race at Michigan last August. He was bad fast all weekend long and qualified 4th. But he had to change engines and go to rear. That didn't stop Austin from flying through the field and being a top 5 threat. He finished 4th in that race and held 11.0 average running position with 112.5 driver rating. Despite coming from the rear, he spent an impressive 80% of the laps inside the top 15. He finished 11th and 14th in 2013 races. Where he drove the 33 car (powered by RCR) and subbed for Tony Stewart in the 14 as well. I would say Charlotte is his second best racetrack on the schedule outside of Michigan. Pure numbers, I would consider this his best track not named Daytona. Over his first 4 starts at Charlotte, he have compiled 13.0 average finish, 19.3 average start position, 13.5 average running position and 85.3 driver rating. What makes this such a good track for Austin is that he have not had a bad race yet. His worst career finish? 16th. He finished 13th and 16th in his rookie season at this racetrack. Last season he was impressive at Charlotte. In 2 races at Charlotte in 2015, he compiled 11.5 average finish, 12.5 average start position, 10.0 average running position and 94.4 driver rating. In the second race, he was simply awesome. He had 8.0 average running position and 103.3 driver rating, while completing 93% of the laps inside the top 15. He will also perform well at other 1.5 milers like Texas and Kansas,etc. I expect Dillon to perform his very best on the intermediate racetracks and personally see him being a top 15 contender every time he on the track. I also believe we will see some top 10 finishes. At the same time, I do expect some poor finishes. Dillon is a developing driver, so he will likely take some of those strong runs and turn them into bad finishes.
Plates will be Dillon's next strongest track next to the intermediate racetracks. Dillon is a great plate racer and have proven himself so far in his young cup career. He been strong the past 2 seasons at Daytona and is probably considered his best racetrack with 3 top 10s in his past 4 starts. His lone non-top 14 finish came in his debut in 2013. He haven't been quite as good at Talladega though. In his debut in the 14 car in 2013, he was running top 5 on the final lap but got wrecked before coming back to the line. In 2014, he was very good and had finishes of 13th and 15th. Then last season he had finishes of 35th and 14th. So in 3 of his 4 races, he have finished inside the top 15. I think Dillon will have good shot as anyone, when it comes to finishing respectably. The one thing I like about Dillon? Since taking over the 3 car, he have not been involved in a wreck yet. In lone non-top 15 finish was because of an engine issue at Talladega.
I think he will also perform decently on the shorter flats (New Hampshire and Phoenix) and contend for least top 20 finishes every time he goes to the racetrack. I feel better about him at New Hampshire than Phoenix though. Over his first 4 starts at New Hampshire, he have compiled 13.8 average finish, 21.3 average start, 19.8 average running position and 72.8 driver rating. Last season he finished 22nd in the second race at New Hampshire. That was his career worst finish at the short flat track since debuting in the 3 car in 2014, where he finished 14th. He followed that 14th place finish with finishes of 11th and 8th. So in 4 career starts, he have 3 Top 14 finishes. Outside of Daytona, he cannot say that about any other racetrack. He holds more fantasy value here than most tracks, because he been consistent through two seasons. I am a big believer that consistency is the foundation for fantasy success. I think New Hampshire is a prime example of that. Last season at New Hampshire, he compiled 15.0 average finish, 20.0 average start, 19.0 average running position and 71.1 driver rating. At Phoenix over his past 4 races, he have compiled 24.3 average finish, 19.0 average start, 21.5 average running position and 66.5 driver rating. He finished 38th and 24th in 2014. Last season? He compiled 17.5 average finish, 13.5 average start, 15.5 average running position and 80.4 driver rating. He had finishes of 15th and 18th. In 4 races on the flats (on both New Hampshire and Phoenix), he compiled 16.3 average finish, 16.8 average start, 17.3 average running position and 75.7 driver rating. I expect a lot of teen finishes from Dillon on the shorter flats. I would say middle to high teens mostly, but he will probably flirt with the top 12 during the races often though.
Larger Flats of Pocono and Indy will give him more trouble than the shorter flats in 2016, but he still should be strong at both larger flats though. Last season on the larger flats, he compiled 19.0 average finish, 11.0 average start, 18.0 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. At Pocono over the past 4 races, he have compiled 16.0 average finish, 8.0 average start, 16.8 average running position and 81.0 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 19th and 13th. He have never finished outside of the top 19 at Pocono which is a very encouraging sign for his future production at the racetrack. Long as he keeps doing what he is doing, then he should be a solid fantasy pick at Pocono. He haven't great, but impressive considering so many young drivers struggle here. At Indy, he will probably struggle more at than Pocono. He only have made three career starts at the 2.5 mile racetrack. At Indy over the past 2 seasons , he have compiled 17.5 average finish, 21.0 average start, 19.5 average running position and 74.9 driver rating. He have finishes of 25th, 10th (2014 race) and 26th. In 2014 it was by far his best race to date at Indy. In that event, he started 17th (best starting position), finished 10th (Best finishing position), 13.0 average running position (best average running position) and 89.7 driver rating (best driver rating). I think he will perform well on the larger flats, but I do believe there will be a chance for inconsistency though. Dillon is a young driver and he will make mistakes. I think it will more than likely come at Indy than Pocono. I haven't seen a poor race from him yet at Pocono and until I do, there is no reason to jump off the Dillon's bandwagon. At Indy, I really haven't seen enough of him yet. Hard to say what he has in terms of fantasy upside and potential. Heading into the season, I would say high teens to low 20s. Just depends on the development as a driver throughout the season leading up to Indy. At Pocono, I think he will be a low to mid teen driver with upside to be a top 10 finisher. However I wouldn't bank on the top 10 finish though. His range will probably be 12th-16th realistically in my opinion.
Short tracks will likely be one of the toughest for Dillon to perform well on. Bristol is by far his best racetrack. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 15.5 average finish, 20.0 average start, 19.8 average running position and 70.0 driver rating. In 4 career starts, he have finished 3 of those 4 races inside the top 13. He should have finished inside the top 5 last April, but he had to pit for fuel. It didn't hurt him much since there were only 12 cars left on the lead lap though. last season at Bristol, he compiled 11.5 average finish, 14.0 average start, 12.5 average running position and 88.4 driver rating. He was awesome in the spring race, where he finished 10th and held 9.0 average running position. In the summer race, he wasn't quite as good. He finished 13th and held 16.0 average running position with 79.0 driver rating. Martinsville is his second best racetrack on among the short tracks. In 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 21.5 average finish, 26.3 average start, 23.0 average running position and 63.5 driver rating. You are probably thinking, ''Those are bad numbers, Jeff!'' You know what my favorite part about stats? They are misleading. Like Dillon's Martinsville stats. He finished 41st in last season race. His other three races? He had finishes of 18th, 12th and 15th. In those three races at Martinsville, he have compiled 15.0 average finish, 27.7 average start, 21.0 average running position and 68.1 driver rating. At Richmond, he been probably at his worst among the three short tracks. He haven't had a good race yet and his best career finish at cup level is 20th. In 4 races at Richmond, he have compiled 25.3 average finish, 21.8 average start, 21.8 average running position and 62.0 driver rating. In 3 of those 4 races, he have finished 27th. I am not kidding, he have finished 27th three times already in his career at Richmond. That isn't good at all and he will need to really pick up his production here in the next few seasons. On short tracks in 2015, he compiled 22.7 average finish, 18.7 average start, 19.7 average running position and 69.5 driver rating. I expect him to be a top 15 to top 20 on the short tracks, outside of Richmond I could see a lot of middle teen finishes probably. More specifically probably 14th-17th place range.
Road Courses will probably be the most unkind to him, personally I don't think Dillon is too talented on the road courses. He really haven't proven he is that good at Watkin Glenn or Sonoma. He been better at Sonoma than Watkin Glenn though. In 2 starts at Sonoma, he have compiled 17.0 average finish, 31.5 average start, 22.5 average running position and 66.0 driver rating. He have finished 17th in both of his starts at Sonoma. At Watkins Glenn, he have also made two starts. He have compiled 26.0 average finish, 20.5 average start, 24.0 average running position and 61.9 driver rating. Last season he finished 36th. In his debut at Watkin Glen in 2014, he finished a road course best-16th place. There not a whole lot of data to go on with Dillon regarding the road courses, so I am not going to really go into details. Especially since we only visit this type track twice per season. At this point, I think he is nothing more than a top 25 driver with top 20 upside because of his equipment.
Alright time to wrap this preview up! Austin Dillon is a inconsistent young driver who will often contend for quality finishes inside the top 15. I think he will have some really poor finishes and some really strong finishes as well. I think this is a huge season for Austin and the 3 season. I think he have to produce in 2016. I don't mean a win, I mean more top 5 and top 10 finishes. I think he is a few seasons away from winning his first race. First I think he needs to develop as a cup driver. In 2016, I expect him to be his best on the intermediate racetracks and Daytona. He will perform decently on the flats as well. I expect his worst days to be on the road courses probably. I think that is a type track, he is unproven at and lacks experience too.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
