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Tony Stewart will drive full-time in the Cup series one more season in 2016. At end of the 2015 season, he announced he would retire immediately at end of the 2016 season. The 3-time Champion have not been himself these last few seasons and it is hard to say if he will return back into his old self. Certainly wouldn't rule it out, but I am not banking on it though. I think he will have some chances to knock out some quality finishes, but most of his finishes will be disappointing in the high teen to low or mid 20s probably. Last season he had a record-setting year! Yes record-setting in career-worst average finish (24.8), Top 10s (3), Top 5s (0), Top 20s (13- Tied with 2013 season where he raced only 21 times), and lap led (24). I think he will improve upon those numbers, but that isn't really saying a whole lot.
I think Smoke will be at his best on the larger flat racetracks of Pocono and Indy. I think he will have the horsepower advantage over most guys, he is racing and should be able to have the potential to run and finish respectably. Looking at data from both races, he was quite strong at both venues. I would consider Indy the better of the two tracks. This is his best racetrack from a career point of view and been pretty strong over the past two seasons. Don't be fooled by his poor average finish. Over the past two seasons, he have 22.5 average finish, 5.0 average finish, 14.0 average running position and 88.3 driver rating. His Running position and driver rating tells us that his performance was pretty stellar and was competitive during the race. He finished 28th in last season race. He held 11.0 average running position and completed 71% of the race inside the top 15. He haven't quite as good at Pocono, but finished a season-high 9th on a flat tracks in last August event. Over the last two seasons, he have 19.8 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 83.1 driver rating. Last season alone, he had 15.0 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 76.8 driver rating at Pocono. Between the two venues, he posted 19.3 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 82.8 driver rating. I think Smoke will be at his best in 2016 on the large flat racetrack and will have some of his best performances as well. I think he will run and possibly somewhere in the teen on this type racetrack. More specifically, I believe he will contend for low to mid teens finishes more often than not.
On the short flat racetracks of Phoenix and New Hampshire, I think Smoke will struggle more than he will on the large flat racetracks. Last season at New Hampshire he was at best among the two short flat tracks. Over the last two seasons at New Hampshire, he have posted 17.0 average finish with 20.8 average running position and 71.2 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 11th and 30th. In the fall race at New Hampshire, he finished 11th. While posting 19.0 average running position and 77.7 driver rating as well. I think we can expect finishes in the high teens to low 20s most likely at New Hampshire. I think Phoenix will be the more difficult racetrack of the two in 2016. Over the last two seasons, he have posted 25.5 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 64.8 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 27th and 39th. He was involved in an accident in the spring race and finished 39th. In the fall rain-shortened race, he finished 27th and two laps down. In 2014, he faired much better where he had finishes of 20th and 16th. At Phoenix, I think he will finish somewhere just outside of the top 20. Probably 22nd-25th place is my realistic expectations. Overall I am not sure what to expect from him. He had a few solid races on the short flat racetracks, but at the same time he have had some really poor races as well. Realistically anything beyond a top 25 is probably too high for Smoke headed into the season.
The short tracks of Martinsvile, Bristol and Richmond is where I expect some success from Smoke as well. I think he will be his best at Martinsville and Bristol though. I think Martinsville is the better of those two tracks. Over the last two seasons, he have posted 12.8 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 85.7 driver rating. Last season alone, he had finishes of 10th and 20th. He had 14.5 average running position, spent 61% of time in the top 15 and posted 81.3 driver rating. He was stronger in the spring race than the fall race though. He started 6th, finished 20th, had an average running position of 11.0 and spent 86% of the race inside the top 15. I think we will see finishes in the low to mid teen from Smoke, if all goes according to plan at Martinsville. At Bristol, he been pretty decent recently. He haven't been lights out, but still pretty good. Over the last two seasons, he have posted 9.7 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 76.3 driver rating. He finished 19th and 6th last season. He finished 4th in summer race in 2014. He was pretty stellar in last spring race where he finished 6th. He posted 15.0 average running position after starting 21st in that race. At Richmond, he been at his worst. He have posted 27.5 average finish with 20.0 average running position and 67.9 driver rating over the last two seasons. He finished 41st and 29th last season. In 2014, he finished 15th and 25th. I expect his best days to be on Martinsville and his worst to come at Richmond most likely
Road Courses will be a type of track that he may find some success at. He have 7 wins on this type racetrack. However his last coming all the way back in 2009. He have struggled at both road courses recently and haven't really contended for wins since the 2012 season. Watkins Glenn is his best racetrack from career point of view, but he haven't gotten much track time here over the past 3 seasons. His lone start since 2011 came last season. Where he last a rear gear out finished 43rd. In that race, he started 3rd, finished 43rd, and held 21.0 average running position. If he could have finished that race without incident, I would say he would have finished somewhere in the teens probably. That just me guessing though. Hard to say how the race would have played out for Smoke. At Sonoma, he been better recently. But he have raced there more too. Over the last two seasons, he have posted 15.5 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 78.5 driver rating. He have finishes of 19th and 12th. He posted his best performance last season since 2012. In last season's event, he posted 12.0 average running position, 90.7 driver rating and completed 72% of the race inside the top 15. He at his best on the road courses last season, yet it considered a disappointment because we have such high standards for him. I think he will be very useful in 2016, but we have to lower our expectations for him though. If you are looking for a driver who will contend for a win, then you should probably keep looking. My realistic expectations for Smoke is 12th-17th on the road courses in 2016.
The intermediate racetracks will be the toughest for Smoke in 2016. Last season he struggled on them mightily. It was considered his worst track by far (minus the restrictor plate tracks). Last season on this type track, he posted 28.5 average finish with 24.4 average running position and 61.6 driver rating. I am not going to go deep detail into each and every track, but he struggled pretty bad on this type track. There were 16 races held on this type racetrack. There were 12 races held on the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks, he posted 31.5 average finish with 26.8 average running position and 56.8 driver rating. In those 12 races, he only had one top 10 finish and that came at Darlington. His next best finish? 21st at Charlotte in the spring. Needless to say, if there aren't major improvements then you can expect some poor finishes on the intermediate racetracks.
The Restrictor Plates will be the toughest for Smoke to squeeze out productive finishes, I view it as his worst type track over the last few season. Over the past 8 races at Daytona and Talladega, he have posted 31.5 average finish with 28.6 average running position and 54.6 driver rating. In those 8 races, he have only 2 top 20 finish and that came at the Daytona summer race last season and Talladega last spring. At Daytona (outside of his 14th place finish last summer), he have posted finishes of 35th, 40th and 42nd. At Talladega, he have posted finishes of 19th, 25th, 34th and 43rd. So at both tracks, he have struggled majority at getting quality finishes and will probably continue that trend in 2016. Then again, his luck might turn around and he might hammer out some solid finishes. Hard to say on the restrictor plates, but I would put my money on recent history though.
*All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @CrazyKateNascar
Tony Stewart will drive full-time in the Cup series one more season in 2016. At end of the 2015 season, he announced he would retire immediately at end of the 2016 season. The 3-time Champion have not been himself these last few seasons and it is hard to say if he will return back into his old self. Certainly wouldn't rule it out, but I am not banking on it though. I think he will have some chances to knock out some quality finishes, but most of his finishes will be disappointing in the high teen to low or mid 20s probably. Last season he had a record-setting year! Yes record-setting in career-worst average finish (24.8), Top 10s (3), Top 5s (0), Top 20s (13- Tied with 2013 season where he raced only 21 times), and lap led (24). I think he will improve upon those numbers, but that isn't really saying a whole lot.
I think Smoke will be at his best on the larger flat racetracks of Pocono and Indy. I think he will have the horsepower advantage over most guys, he is racing and should be able to have the potential to run and finish respectably. Looking at data from both races, he was quite strong at both venues. I would consider Indy the better of the two tracks. This is his best racetrack from a career point of view and been pretty strong over the past two seasons. Don't be fooled by his poor average finish. Over the past two seasons, he have 22.5 average finish, 5.0 average finish, 14.0 average running position and 88.3 driver rating. His Running position and driver rating tells us that his performance was pretty stellar and was competitive during the race. He finished 28th in last season race. He held 11.0 average running position and completed 71% of the race inside the top 15. He haven't quite as good at Pocono, but finished a season-high 9th on a flat tracks in last August event. Over the last two seasons, he have 19.8 average finish with 16.3 average running position and 83.1 driver rating. Last season alone, he had 15.0 average finish with 17.5 average running position and 76.8 driver rating at Pocono. Between the two venues, he posted 19.3 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 82.8 driver rating. I think Smoke will be at his best in 2016 on the large flat racetrack and will have some of his best performances as well. I think he will run and possibly somewhere in the teen on this type racetrack. More specifically, I believe he will contend for low to mid teens finishes more often than not.
On the short flat racetracks of Phoenix and New Hampshire, I think Smoke will struggle more than he will on the large flat racetracks. Last season at New Hampshire he was at best among the two short flat tracks. Over the last two seasons at New Hampshire, he have posted 17.0 average finish with 20.8 average running position and 71.2 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 11th and 30th. In the fall race at New Hampshire, he finished 11th. While posting 19.0 average running position and 77.7 driver rating as well. I think we can expect finishes in the high teens to low 20s most likely at New Hampshire. I think Phoenix will be the more difficult racetrack of the two in 2016. Over the last two seasons, he have posted 25.5 average finish with 21.3 average running position and 64.8 driver rating. Last season he had finishes of 27th and 39th. He was involved in an accident in the spring race and finished 39th. In the fall rain-shortened race, he finished 27th and two laps down. In 2014, he faired much better where he had finishes of 20th and 16th. At Phoenix, I think he will finish somewhere just outside of the top 20. Probably 22nd-25th place is my realistic expectations. Overall I am not sure what to expect from him. He had a few solid races on the short flat racetracks, but at the same time he have had some really poor races as well. Realistically anything beyond a top 25 is probably too high for Smoke headed into the season.
The short tracks of Martinsvile, Bristol and Richmond is where I expect some success from Smoke as well. I think he will be his best at Martinsville and Bristol though. I think Martinsville is the better of those two tracks. Over the last two seasons, he have posted 12.8 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 85.7 driver rating. Last season alone, he had finishes of 10th and 20th. He had 14.5 average running position, spent 61% of time in the top 15 and posted 81.3 driver rating. He was stronger in the spring race than the fall race though. He started 6th, finished 20th, had an average running position of 11.0 and spent 86% of the race inside the top 15. I think we will see finishes in the low to mid teen from Smoke, if all goes according to plan at Martinsville. At Bristol, he been pretty decent recently. He haven't been lights out, but still pretty good. Over the last two seasons, he have posted 9.7 average finish with 18.0 average running position and 76.3 driver rating. He finished 19th and 6th last season. He finished 4th in summer race in 2014. He was pretty stellar in last spring race where he finished 6th. He posted 15.0 average running position after starting 21st in that race. At Richmond, he been at his worst. He have posted 27.5 average finish with 20.0 average running position and 67.9 driver rating over the last two seasons. He finished 41st and 29th last season. In 2014, he finished 15th and 25th. I expect his best days to be on Martinsville and his worst to come at Richmond most likely
Road Courses will be a type of track that he may find some success at. He have 7 wins on this type racetrack. However his last coming all the way back in 2009. He have struggled at both road courses recently and haven't really contended for wins since the 2012 season. Watkins Glenn is his best racetrack from career point of view, but he haven't gotten much track time here over the past 3 seasons. His lone start since 2011 came last season. Where he last a rear gear out finished 43rd. In that race, he started 3rd, finished 43rd, and held 21.0 average running position. If he could have finished that race without incident, I would say he would have finished somewhere in the teens probably. That just me guessing though. Hard to say how the race would have played out for Smoke. At Sonoma, he been better recently. But he have raced there more too. Over the last two seasons, he have posted 15.5 average finish with 16.0 average running position and 78.5 driver rating. He have finishes of 19th and 12th. He posted his best performance last season since 2012. In last season's event, he posted 12.0 average running position, 90.7 driver rating and completed 72% of the race inside the top 15. He at his best on the road courses last season, yet it considered a disappointment because we have such high standards for him. I think he will be very useful in 2016, but we have to lower our expectations for him though. If you are looking for a driver who will contend for a win, then you should probably keep looking. My realistic expectations for Smoke is 12th-17th on the road courses in 2016.
The intermediate racetracks will be the toughest for Smoke in 2016. Last season he struggled on them mightily. It was considered his worst track by far (minus the restrictor plate tracks). Last season on this type track, he posted 28.5 average finish with 24.4 average running position and 61.6 driver rating. I am not going to go deep detail into each and every track, but he struggled pretty bad on this type track. There were 16 races held on this type racetrack. There were 12 races held on the 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks, he posted 31.5 average finish with 26.8 average running position and 56.8 driver rating. In those 12 races, he only had one top 10 finish and that came at Darlington. His next best finish? 21st at Charlotte in the spring. Needless to say, if there aren't major improvements then you can expect some poor finishes on the intermediate racetracks.
The Restrictor Plates will be the toughest for Smoke to squeeze out productive finishes, I view it as his worst type track over the last few season. Over the past 8 races at Daytona and Talladega, he have posted 31.5 average finish with 28.6 average running position and 54.6 driver rating. In those 8 races, he have only 2 top 20 finish and that came at the Daytona summer race last season and Talladega last spring. At Daytona (outside of his 14th place finish last summer), he have posted finishes of 35th, 40th and 42nd. At Talladega, he have posted finishes of 19th, 25th, 34th and 43rd. So at both tracks, he have struggled majority at getting quality finishes and will probably continue that trend in 2016. Then again, his luck might turn around and he might hammer out some solid finishes. Hard to say on the restrictor plates, but I would put my money on recent history though.
*All stats are from DriverAverages.com and FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com
Twitter - @CrazyKateNascar
