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Trevor Bayne will drive for RFR in the 2016 season! Bayne is coming off a pitiful rookie season (wasn't eligible for Rookie Of The Year) where he rarely ran better than 25th for majority of the season. Roush lack of speed and overall performance is probably to blame, but Bayne didn't do himself any favors. First off, he isn't that great of a talent. Least not for the Cup level. He was pretty medicore with the 21 team when he ran part-time and never really was anything beyond top 20 material and most times wasn't even that. So not surpsing how he is struggling with RFR down on power. Then again he is young and he have room to improve, so I will get him benefit of the doubt for now.
Okay that's not totally fair. He had a few decent runs last season for RFR, but they were too far and between to be considered a legit fantasy option in any format. He doesn't lack experience like most young drivers do, as he been driving least driving part time in Cup since the 2010 season! He just don't have the equipment or the proper skillset to be a anything beyond a top 25 driver. If RFR can find more speed in 2016, I think we are talking closer to top 20. But still it all about how RFR progresses in the offseason and come to the track starting at Daytona. After 5 races, I think we will know what RFR have.
Bayne strongest spot for 2016 will probably be the intermediate racetracks! I don't think he is that good of a short track or flat track racer yet in his career. One of the strong suit been the intermediate racetrack. Looking strictly at he 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks, he was actually pretty darn good last season. He scored 10 Top 20 finishes in 2015 and 5 of those came on the 1.5 mile high speed intermediate racetracks. Much like last season on the intermediate tracks, I expect him to be inconsistent and post lackluster finishes at times. But I also feel like he will also have some of his best results on this type track.
His best track is probably Texas or Michigan. I would say Texas is his best track as he have the most races under his belt there and have been pretty darn good in the process. In 11 starts, he have 6 Top 20 finishes which roughly represents about 20% of all of his career Top 20 finishes. Yeah that pretty impressive considering he have nearly 100 starts under his belt already. It worth noting that Bayne have found all of his success in the spring race. In 5 career starts, he have notched 4 Top 20 finishes already. His other two top 20 finishes came in the fall race but that was already back in 2010 and 2011. His average finish over the past three spring races is 18.3 and over the past three fall races is 35.6. Michigan is another good track for Bayne, even though I wouldn't call it great though. When we look at a lot of Bayne's stats, he doesn't have great stats because he tend to be inconsistent far too often. Michigan is still a RFR track and he did finish 9th here last June. He only posted 71.9 driver rating, but that was probably one of his better races during the 2015 season. He was nowhere near a 9th place driver, but he got real lucky when it rained because how great track position he had. In that race he actually had about 21st or 22nd place car the event. He may have been a high teen driver toward latter part of the race at best. One of the great things about Bayne is that he drove the 21 car from 2011 to 2014 with RFR backing, so we are getting fairly accurate track history. When I look at the past two seasons before hopping in the 6 car, he have gotten some solid finishes at Michigan. 15th in July 2013, 21st in August 2013 and 19th in July 2014. He finished 22nd this past August in the 6 car. Then I start comparing his overall performance at Michigan in the 6 car and 21 car. There really isn't much different, even though RFR speed have dipped considerably since 2012. I think with experience he makes up for that lost of speed, which allows him to remain consistent at Michigan.
There are other intermediate racetracks like Kentucky, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Las Vegas that he have found a great success at. However I don't think there enough data to fully analysis them. Okay maybe Charlotte. There enough data there, even though he wasn't too great at the 1.5 mile racetrack last season in the 6 car. He had finishes of 22nd and 27th. He haven't really been bad at Charlotte but he haven't been great either though. He have finished 5 of 7 races inside the top 24, but he only have two top 20 finishes though. Best result coming in May 2013 in May at the 600. Las Vegas was arguably his best track coming into 2015 with 4 top 20 finishes in 4 races. However he took a major step back in 2015 where he finished 28th and posted his worst overall performance at the racetrack. He had his best race of his career at Kentucky in his debut last season. He posted a season high-driver rating of 81.2 and finished 13th. Atlanta is another track that Bayne have some solid finishes at, but doesn't have much data at. He have made two starts and have finished inside the top 19 in both races. Only track one the schedule that he can say that about. There still a lot of questions about what tracks are Bayne strong suits, but he will have some of his best outcomes on this type track though.
Bayne have been at his worst on the flats tracks so far in his career. It been pretty ugly so far when looking at his stats. There no way to sugar coat it, he been absolutely terrible on both the larger flats and shorter flats. He been slightly better on the short flats, but that not saying very much though. His been at his best at New Hampshire, but his lone top 30 finish came in 16th place in his debut. His 2nd career race at New Hampshire ended in 32nd. He been a nightmare at Phoenix, so far his career best finish have came with an 28th place finish last spring. He turned in his best driver rating of 46.9 (yeah that isn't good). He followed that up with an 34th place finish this past fall. In his debut in 2011 in the 21 car, he finished 40th after being involved in an incident. He completed only 49 laps that day. Combining the two shorter flat tracks, Bayne have compiled 29.0 average finish over 5 races. And only 2 top 30 finishes. His lone good finish was at New Hampshire of 16th and that remains his lone top 25 finish as well.
On the larger flats, he been worse. Yeah I know I am shocked too. He been slightly better at Indy of the two large flats, but not like really either of them are that impressive. He have made 2 starts at Pocono and his career best finish came of 24th in his debut last season. He followed that up with an 40th place finish in the second race. Indy is probably Bayne's worst flat track among the four. He have made 5 starts at Indy and have a career best of 17th in 2012. That remains his best race by far at the large flat track. His other four races have been very ugly with best finish of 28th coming in his debut at this track in 2013 in the 21 car. His other finishes have resulted in 30th (2011) and then two DNFs over his past two starts of 40th and 43rd. Combing the two larger flats, he get an 31.8 average finish over 7 starts. So over 12 races on the flats, Bayne have compiled an 30.4 average finish with 4 Top 30 finishes.
Short tracks have been decent for Bayne, but he still too inconsistent to have any true fantasy value though. His best racetrack probably is Bristol with his lone top 15 finish coming this this past August in his 3rd career start at the track. His other two races ended in 34th with the 21 car and 28th in his debut with RFR in the 6 car at Bristol. Richmond would be his next best short track, but he only have made two starts at this track. He finished 24th in his debut in 2015 and followed that up with 23rd place finish in the second time around. So he haven't had a bad race, but he haven't had a great one either. Martinsville is probably his worst racetrack and that probably because he have finished 2 of his 3 career races have ended outside of the top 30. His lone good finish was this past spring of 18th. But to be fair that race was insane as a lot of good cars had trouble. So that helped him out a lot. Bayne big problem on the short tracks will be staying on the lead lap or staying close to the lead lap. That always seems to be his problem on the shorter tracks in length. He seems to fall off in middle of the race and just go downhill. Not always though, but he is a young driver and should get better with experience.
At Road Courses and Restrictor Plates, Bayne won't hold much fantasy value. However I think he might surprise us though. I think he will perform better on the road course than most people expecting. I don't think he will better than top 20, but he did decent last season in his Cup debuts at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn. He finished 22nd and 23rd respectably, despite starting outside of the top 30 in both events. Now he wasn't great in either race, but he didn't make any critical errors. That all you really need to do as a young driver in Cup. He will probably be nothing more than top 25 driver, but that probably better than most people view him though. Honestly I am not sure what to expect from him. He only have one start on each track, so it a pretty toss up right now. On Restrictor Plates, I think he is pretty overrated. He still living off that one-hit wonder in his 2nd career (first career race was at Texas in end of 2010) at Daytona in 2011. He isn't that good of a plate racer, I personally felt like this style of racing doesn't suit him too well as he seems to often find the big one at both Daytona and Talladega. I think it hard to pinpoint who good and who bad on the plates, but Bayne doesn't seem to understand how to race these tracks in the draft that well. I think the lack of speed of RFR hurts him as well. But not that bad though. Overall I don't expect a lot from Bayne at Daytona or Talladega. He might knock off a good finish or two, but I also expect him to find the big one a few times too.
I have picked apart Bayne pretty bad in this preview but I do believe Bayne will be better in 2016 than he was in 2015. I think he will be very inconsistent, but I do believe we will see more top 20 finishes than we saw in 2015. Even though the bar is pretty low, so that may not be saying much. Regardless I think Bayne's success will heavily depend on the development of RFR this season and how he learn from his teammates. I believe his best days will be on the intermediate racetracks. His worst will probably come on the flat racetracks and certain short tracks. He will likely surprise us with some really good finishes at times, at other we would be wondering if he is actually a Cup driver. I don't think experience is a issue for Bayne like most young drivers. He have already made 94 career starts at the Cup level. There certain tracks out there where he does lack seat time at and those are the ones I am the most concerned about. Not knowing how he likes a track is a scary thing. I think he will be a top 25in 2016 and maybe a little more if RFR can find more speed. Overall I have low expectations for Bayne and he should meet them.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Trevor Bayne will drive for RFR in the 2016 season! Bayne is coming off a pitiful rookie season (wasn't eligible for Rookie Of The Year) where he rarely ran better than 25th for majority of the season. Roush lack of speed and overall performance is probably to blame, but Bayne didn't do himself any favors. First off, he isn't that great of a talent. Least not for the Cup level. He was pretty medicore with the 21 team when he ran part-time and never really was anything beyond top 20 material and most times wasn't even that. So not surpsing how he is struggling with RFR down on power. Then again he is young and he have room to improve, so I will get him benefit of the doubt for now.
Okay that's not totally fair. He had a few decent runs last season for RFR, but they were too far and between to be considered a legit fantasy option in any format. He doesn't lack experience like most young drivers do, as he been driving least driving part time in Cup since the 2010 season! He just don't have the equipment or the proper skillset to be a anything beyond a top 25 driver. If RFR can find more speed in 2016, I think we are talking closer to top 20. But still it all about how RFR progresses in the offseason and come to the track starting at Daytona. After 5 races, I think we will know what RFR have.
Bayne strongest spot for 2016 will probably be the intermediate racetracks! I don't think he is that good of a short track or flat track racer yet in his career. One of the strong suit been the intermediate racetrack. Looking strictly at he 1.5 mile intermediate racetracks, he was actually pretty darn good last season. He scored 10 Top 20 finishes in 2015 and 5 of those came on the 1.5 mile high speed intermediate racetracks. Much like last season on the intermediate tracks, I expect him to be inconsistent and post lackluster finishes at times. But I also feel like he will also have some of his best results on this type track.
His best track is probably Texas or Michigan. I would say Texas is his best track as he have the most races under his belt there and have been pretty darn good in the process. In 11 starts, he have 6 Top 20 finishes which roughly represents about 20% of all of his career Top 20 finishes. Yeah that pretty impressive considering he have nearly 100 starts under his belt already. It worth noting that Bayne have found all of his success in the spring race. In 5 career starts, he have notched 4 Top 20 finishes already. His other two top 20 finishes came in the fall race but that was already back in 2010 and 2011. His average finish over the past three spring races is 18.3 and over the past three fall races is 35.6. Michigan is another good track for Bayne, even though I wouldn't call it great though. When we look at a lot of Bayne's stats, he doesn't have great stats because he tend to be inconsistent far too often. Michigan is still a RFR track and he did finish 9th here last June. He only posted 71.9 driver rating, but that was probably one of his better races during the 2015 season. He was nowhere near a 9th place driver, but he got real lucky when it rained because how great track position he had. In that race he actually had about 21st or 22nd place car the event. He may have been a high teen driver toward latter part of the race at best. One of the great things about Bayne is that he drove the 21 car from 2011 to 2014 with RFR backing, so we are getting fairly accurate track history. When I look at the past two seasons before hopping in the 6 car, he have gotten some solid finishes at Michigan. 15th in July 2013, 21st in August 2013 and 19th in July 2014. He finished 22nd this past August in the 6 car. Then I start comparing his overall performance at Michigan in the 6 car and 21 car. There really isn't much different, even though RFR speed have dipped considerably since 2012. I think with experience he makes up for that lost of speed, which allows him to remain consistent at Michigan.
There are other intermediate racetracks like Kentucky, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Las Vegas that he have found a great success at. However I don't think there enough data to fully analysis them. Okay maybe Charlotte. There enough data there, even though he wasn't too great at the 1.5 mile racetrack last season in the 6 car. He had finishes of 22nd and 27th. He haven't really been bad at Charlotte but he haven't been great either though. He have finished 5 of 7 races inside the top 24, but he only have two top 20 finishes though. Best result coming in May 2013 in May at the 600. Las Vegas was arguably his best track coming into 2015 with 4 top 20 finishes in 4 races. However he took a major step back in 2015 where he finished 28th and posted his worst overall performance at the racetrack. He had his best race of his career at Kentucky in his debut last season. He posted a season high-driver rating of 81.2 and finished 13th. Atlanta is another track that Bayne have some solid finishes at, but doesn't have much data at. He have made two starts and have finished inside the top 19 in both races. Only track one the schedule that he can say that about. There still a lot of questions about what tracks are Bayne strong suits, but he will have some of his best outcomes on this type track though.
Bayne have been at his worst on the flats tracks so far in his career. It been pretty ugly so far when looking at his stats. There no way to sugar coat it, he been absolutely terrible on both the larger flats and shorter flats. He been slightly better on the short flats, but that not saying very much though. His been at his best at New Hampshire, but his lone top 30 finish came in 16th place in his debut. His 2nd career race at New Hampshire ended in 32nd. He been a nightmare at Phoenix, so far his career best finish have came with an 28th place finish last spring. He turned in his best driver rating of 46.9 (yeah that isn't good). He followed that up with an 34th place finish this past fall. In his debut in 2011 in the 21 car, he finished 40th after being involved in an incident. He completed only 49 laps that day. Combining the two shorter flat tracks, Bayne have compiled 29.0 average finish over 5 races. And only 2 top 30 finishes. His lone good finish was at New Hampshire of 16th and that remains his lone top 25 finish as well.
On the larger flats, he been worse. Yeah I know I am shocked too. He been slightly better at Indy of the two large flats, but not like really either of them are that impressive. He have made 2 starts at Pocono and his career best finish came of 24th in his debut last season. He followed that up with an 40th place finish in the second race. Indy is probably Bayne's worst flat track among the four. He have made 5 starts at Indy and have a career best of 17th in 2012. That remains his best race by far at the large flat track. His other four races have been very ugly with best finish of 28th coming in his debut at this track in 2013 in the 21 car. His other finishes have resulted in 30th (2011) and then two DNFs over his past two starts of 40th and 43rd. Combing the two larger flats, he get an 31.8 average finish over 7 starts. So over 12 races on the flats, Bayne have compiled an 30.4 average finish with 4 Top 30 finishes.
Short tracks have been decent for Bayne, but he still too inconsistent to have any true fantasy value though. His best racetrack probably is Bristol with his lone top 15 finish coming this this past August in his 3rd career start at the track. His other two races ended in 34th with the 21 car and 28th in his debut with RFR in the 6 car at Bristol. Richmond would be his next best short track, but he only have made two starts at this track. He finished 24th in his debut in 2015 and followed that up with 23rd place finish in the second time around. So he haven't had a bad race, but he haven't had a great one either. Martinsville is probably his worst racetrack and that probably because he have finished 2 of his 3 career races have ended outside of the top 30. His lone good finish was this past spring of 18th. But to be fair that race was insane as a lot of good cars had trouble. So that helped him out a lot. Bayne big problem on the short tracks will be staying on the lead lap or staying close to the lead lap. That always seems to be his problem on the shorter tracks in length. He seems to fall off in middle of the race and just go downhill. Not always though, but he is a young driver and should get better with experience.
At Road Courses and Restrictor Plates, Bayne won't hold much fantasy value. However I think he might surprise us though. I think he will perform better on the road course than most people expecting. I don't think he will better than top 20, but he did decent last season in his Cup debuts at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn. He finished 22nd and 23rd respectably, despite starting outside of the top 30 in both events. Now he wasn't great in either race, but he didn't make any critical errors. That all you really need to do as a young driver in Cup. He will probably be nothing more than top 25 driver, but that probably better than most people view him though. Honestly I am not sure what to expect from him. He only have one start on each track, so it a pretty toss up right now. On Restrictor Plates, I think he is pretty overrated. He still living off that one-hit wonder in his 2nd career (first career race was at Texas in end of 2010) at Daytona in 2011. He isn't that good of a plate racer, I personally felt like this style of racing doesn't suit him too well as he seems to often find the big one at both Daytona and Talladega. I think it hard to pinpoint who good and who bad on the plates, but Bayne doesn't seem to understand how to race these tracks in the draft that well. I think the lack of speed of RFR hurts him as well. But not that bad though. Overall I don't expect a lot from Bayne at Daytona or Talladega. He might knock off a good finish or two, but I also expect him to find the big one a few times too.
I have picked apart Bayne pretty bad in this preview but I do believe Bayne will be better in 2016 than he was in 2015. I think he will be very inconsistent, but I do believe we will see more top 20 finishes than we saw in 2015. Even though the bar is pretty low, so that may not be saying much. Regardless I think Bayne's success will heavily depend on the development of RFR this season and how he learn from his teammates. I believe his best days will be on the intermediate racetracks. His worst will probably come on the flat racetracks and certain short tracks. He will likely surprise us with some really good finishes at times, at other we would be wondering if he is actually a Cup driver. I don't think experience is a issue for Bayne like most young drivers. He have already made 94 career starts at the Cup level. There certain tracks out there where he does lack seat time at and those are the ones I am the most concerned about. Not knowing how he likes a track is a scary thing. I think he will be a top 25in 2016 and maybe a little more if RFR can find more speed. Overall I have low expectations for Bayne and he should meet them.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
