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Paul Menard is probably one of the most underrated drivers in the Cup field, as I don't ever think he get the credit he deserves. The common image of him among the general public is that Menard is nothing but a rich kid living off Daddy's pockets. And I don't disagree with that, however he always seems to be run around top 15 or sometimes even the top 10. You know what that sounds like? A very typical RCR performance. Menard over the past few seasons haven't anything special, but his strong starts have turned into solid fantasy production. I won't get super detailed into that, as I am sure my fellow analysis Garry Briggs will cover that in his 2016 Sleeper post coming up. I do want to say that Menard is a low to middle teen driver with the upside to sneak away with some top 10 finishes. Commonly his finish range is from 12th to 17th. I would expect majority of his finishes to come there.
Intermediate racetracks will be a strong spot for Menard and RCR in 2016. He was fast last season for a majority of the season on this type racetrack, but his results really fell off in second half of the season towards the chase. Which didn't really surprise me though. He finished 8 of the first 10 intermediate races inside the top 15. The final 7? Only 1 Top 15 finishes and 2 total top 20 finishes. His two top 20 finishes were Texas and Kansas. Last season on the intermediate tracks (17 races), he compiled 17.2 average finish, 17.8 average start, 17.9 average running position and 77.4 driver rating. Menard just doesn't have one or two good Intermediate tracks. He probably have 4 or 5 racetracks that could considered as his best. Texas, Cali, Las Vegas, Kansas and Michigan all have been very kind to him the past few seasons. I would say Michigan and Las Vegas are his best two tracks. I would say Cali is directly behind. Michigan is probably his best racetrack overall. Over the past two seasons at Michigan (4 races), he have compiled 7.0 average finish, 13.3 average start, 12.3 average running position and 96.0 driver rating. Among active drivers, he ranked inside the top 10 in every major category over the past two seasons. Including 4th-best average finish, 10th-best average starting position, 6th-best average running position and 7th-best average running position. Pretty strong for Menard overall. Last season he had finishes of 12th and 8th. Prior to that? He had 3 straight top 4 finishes. Overall, he have 7 straight top 14 finishes dating back to 2012. Including 3 Top 5 finishes and 5 Top 10 finishes. Not to mention, he have 5 straight top 12 finishes headed into the 2016 season. If there any doubt that Michigan isn't Menard's best racetrack, then you are pretty much living in denial.
The second Intermediate track that I want to look at is Las Vegas. I think this is one of his very best tracks and he should be on everyone radar. He been pretty stout since joining RCR at Vegas. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 7.5 average finish, 22.5 average start, 13.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Last season he finished 12th and it was probably his worst performance since joining RCR back in 2012. His previous 3 races? 4th, 10th and 7th. Overall he have finished 12th or better in every race dating back to the 2011 season. His best race probably came back in 2014 though. He had a bullet in that event on the long run. He probably had the car to beat on the long run and could have won that race, if it ended on a longer run. But it didn't, so he ended up 4th for that race. Other Intermediate tracks he will perform well at is Cali (best average finish over the past two seasons - 6.0), Texas (had top 5 car last spring before mechanical issue after a pit stop), and Kansas (11 Straight top 20 finishes with 4 top 10 in past 7 races). Overall I expect Menard to be a strong driver on the intermediate racetracks. I think he will be a force early on at tracks like Atlanta, Las Vegas, Texas, Charlotte, Kansas,etc. He is known to be a quick starter, but typically falls off as the season progresses. I don't think 2016 will any different either!
Shorter flats are probably his next strongest type racetrack after the intermediates. Last season on the shorter flats (Phoenix and New Hampshire), he compiled 16.8 average finish, 21.0 average start, 16.5 average running position and 77.4 driver rating. At Phoenix, he finished 13th and 14th last season. Prior to that, he had finishes of 23rd in both races in 2014. Overall, he have finished inside the top 20 in 5 of the past 7 races at Phoenix. I would expect him to finish inside the top 12th to 20th range at Phoenix range probably. He been a little better at New Hampshire overall I would say. Over the past 4 races t Phoenix, he have compiled 18.5 average finish, 21.8 average start, 18.3 average running position and 71.7 driver rating. In those 4 races, he really only had one bad finish and that was 25th last July. He was better than that in the race though. He probably had a teen car and would have finished there, if the race played out differently for him. His other three races over the past two seasons? He have compiled 16.3 average finish, 19.7 average start, 17.3 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. In those 3 races, he have finishes of 15th, 15th and 19th. Overall, he have finished 7 of the past 9 New Hampshire races inside the top 20. Including 5 of the past 8 have ended in 17th or better. 3 of those races ended inside the top 15. His best result? 12th back in 2012. I would expect a finish between 12th and 17th at New Hampshire.
Larger Flats should be another decent type racetrack for Paul Menard. I think he may be a little bit stronger on the shorter flats, but still expect good results from him. Last season on the large flats (Indy and Pocono), he have compiled 18.7 average finish, 15.0 average start, 22.3 average running position and 72.5 driver rating. Pocono is probably considered one of Paul's worst tracks over the past few seasons. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 25.3 average finish, 21.5 average start, 24.3 average running position and 64.9 driver rating. You are probably thinking, ''So he sucks at Pocono?'' Oh but that far from the truth. He is actually a very strong driver at Pocono. Prior to finishing 11th last August, he had 5 straight finishes of 26th or worse. 4 of those finishes ended outside of the top 30. So why am I so positive about him at Pocono? I am glad you asked! Two things actually: 1) Every single of those races he finished poorly in, can be blamed on pure bad luck. Wrecks, blown tires, penalties,etc. 2) From June 2010 to August 2012 (6 races), he finished 16th or better in every race. Including finishes of 14th, 10th (2011) and 11th and 9th (2012). So in basic terms, he is either top 15 or bust at Pocono over his past 12 races overall. At Indy, he been much more consistent. Over the past 2 races at Indy, he have compiled 24.0 average finish, 20.0 average start, 26.0 average running position and 63.3 driver rating. He will largely be known for his Brickyard win, but what many don't remember how he won that race on fuel strategy. If that race was another lap or two, I was 100% certain that Jeff Gordon would have won that race. But since how have he done? Very well actually. 3 of his past 4 starts since his win, he have finished 12th, 14th and 14th. Fairly respectably in my opinion. Overall he have finished 14th or better in 5 of his past 6 races at Indy, dating back to the 2010 season with RPM. I expect him to contend for finishes from 11th to 15th mainly at the larger flats. Even though he may not get the finishes he deserve in the end.
Short tracks will likely be a up and down type track for him in 2016. I don't expect to perform poorly, but I don't expect him to blow us away either. Last season the shorts (Martinsville, Richmond, and Bristol), he compiled 19.0 average finish, 19.0 average start, 20.8 average running position and 68.0 driver rating. Last season at Martinsville, he had finishes of 23rd and 15th. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 15.5 average finish, 18.5 average start, 19.0 average running position and 74.6 driver rating. Overall he have finished 5 of the past 7 races inside the top 20. Including 3 of the past 4 races ending inside the top 15. Very underrated at Martinsville and should be under the radar for those that like stealing fantasy value. His best short track is probably Bristol. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 16.3 average finish, 20.8 average start, 18.5 average running position and 73.9 driver rating. Over the past two seasons, he have two poor finishes (24th, 21st) and two solid finishes (11th, 9th). Overall he been very consistent at Bristol. He have finished 11th or better in 7 of the past 10 races at Bristol. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. In fact, he had 4 straight top 10 finishes in 2012 and 2013 seasons. He added another top 10 finish in August 2014. In simpler terms, he is either top 10 or nothing. He been at his worst at Richmond over the past two seasons, he have compiled 20.8 average finish, 15.0 average start, 21.0 average running position and 65.6 driver rating. He had finishes of 26th and 15th last season. Prior to that, he had finishes of 18th, 24th (2014) and 5th, 13th. Overall he have finished 5 of the past 8 races inside the top 18. 4 of those 5 top 20 finishes ended inside top 15. I would expect a finish between 13th and 20th realistically.
Plates tracks of Daytona and Talladega will probably be one of his best shots at victory in my opinion. He have done a great job in seasons past to run respectably. I think Menard is one of the most underrated plate racers in the field. Not only does he usually have the speed to run well, but he also understand how to use the draft to his advantage. In my opinion, he had the opportunity to learn from two solid plate racers of Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton. I do believe he learned a lot from both of them. One of the reasons why he usually good for a few solid finishes at both Daytona and Talladega. He been better at Talladega than Daytona lately though. Not going to spend a lot of time on the plates, but I would expect him to run very well at both tracks. However he tend to be inconsistent. Most times, he should be good for a low teen to mid 20 finish. Commonly he will wreck out or finish near the top 5 though. More often than not, it doesn't seems to be the case.
Road Courses will be a place where Paul Menard is very underrated at. When we think road courses, he don't usually think about Menard. However he have been very respectably overall when looking at his numbers. Over the past two seasons at Sonoma, he have compiled 9.0 average finish, 20.5 average start, 18.0 average running position and 81.7 driver rating. He had finishes of 13th and 5th the past two seasons. He been pretty good for awhile though. He have 5 straight top 20 finishes at Sonoma. Including 3 straight top 14 finishes over the past three seasons. He been a bit more inconsistent at Watkin Glenn. Over the past two seasons at WGI, he have compiled 22.5 average finish, 24.0 average start, 30.0 average running position and 52.2 driver rating. Misleading stats right there. He finished 13th in last season's event. In 2014? He finished 32nd, after finishing 3 laps off the pace. Prior to those two finishes? He had 4 of the previous 6 races inside the top 19. Including finishes of 12th, 16th and 17th. Overall, he have finished 3 of the his 5 career races with RCR inside the top 17. He should be good for a teen finish at both road courses, if all goes according to plan for him.
Let wrap up this preview, Paul Menard is one of the most underrated drivers in the series and will contend for mainly teen-like finishes. He is quick starter to the season, so make sure you jump on that value early and often. Because there is a very good chance that he won't have that same type of production late in the season. I think the window of fantasy production is larger than it was 2 or 3 seasons ago, but I also believe his volume of production will tamper off more. In simpler terms, I don't believe he will see same level of quality top 5 and top 10 finishes like we saw in the past. Even though he will be more consistent for a longer period of time. If you want to max out his fantasy value, then make sure you use him on the intermediate tracks early in the season. It seems to be a common trend in recent seasons that Menard perform his best on these venues as the season is fresh. It will be interesting to see if recent trends hold true, or if we will see a different Menard in 2016.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
Paul Menard is probably one of the most underrated drivers in the Cup field, as I don't ever think he get the credit he deserves. The common image of him among the general public is that Menard is nothing but a rich kid living off Daddy's pockets. And I don't disagree with that, however he always seems to be run around top 15 or sometimes even the top 10. You know what that sounds like? A very typical RCR performance. Menard over the past few seasons haven't anything special, but his strong starts have turned into solid fantasy production. I won't get super detailed into that, as I am sure my fellow analysis Garry Briggs will cover that in his 2016 Sleeper post coming up. I do want to say that Menard is a low to middle teen driver with the upside to sneak away with some top 10 finishes. Commonly his finish range is from 12th to 17th. I would expect majority of his finishes to come there.
Intermediate racetracks will be a strong spot for Menard and RCR in 2016. He was fast last season for a majority of the season on this type racetrack, but his results really fell off in second half of the season towards the chase. Which didn't really surprise me though. He finished 8 of the first 10 intermediate races inside the top 15. The final 7? Only 1 Top 15 finishes and 2 total top 20 finishes. His two top 20 finishes were Texas and Kansas. Last season on the intermediate tracks (17 races), he compiled 17.2 average finish, 17.8 average start, 17.9 average running position and 77.4 driver rating. Menard just doesn't have one or two good Intermediate tracks. He probably have 4 or 5 racetracks that could considered as his best. Texas, Cali, Las Vegas, Kansas and Michigan all have been very kind to him the past few seasons. I would say Michigan and Las Vegas are his best two tracks. I would say Cali is directly behind. Michigan is probably his best racetrack overall. Over the past two seasons at Michigan (4 races), he have compiled 7.0 average finish, 13.3 average start, 12.3 average running position and 96.0 driver rating. Among active drivers, he ranked inside the top 10 in every major category over the past two seasons. Including 4th-best average finish, 10th-best average starting position, 6th-best average running position and 7th-best average running position. Pretty strong for Menard overall. Last season he had finishes of 12th and 8th. Prior to that? He had 3 straight top 4 finishes. Overall, he have 7 straight top 14 finishes dating back to 2012. Including 3 Top 5 finishes and 5 Top 10 finishes. Not to mention, he have 5 straight top 12 finishes headed into the 2016 season. If there any doubt that Michigan isn't Menard's best racetrack, then you are pretty much living in denial.
The second Intermediate track that I want to look at is Las Vegas. I think this is one of his very best tracks and he should be on everyone radar. He been pretty stout since joining RCR at Vegas. Over the past two seasons, he have compiled 7.5 average finish, 22.5 average start, 13.0 average running position and 94.5 driver rating. Last season he finished 12th and it was probably his worst performance since joining RCR back in 2012. His previous 3 races? 4th, 10th and 7th. Overall he have finished 12th or better in every race dating back to the 2011 season. His best race probably came back in 2014 though. He had a bullet in that event on the long run. He probably had the car to beat on the long run and could have won that race, if it ended on a longer run. But it didn't, so he ended up 4th for that race. Other Intermediate tracks he will perform well at is Cali (best average finish over the past two seasons - 6.0), Texas (had top 5 car last spring before mechanical issue after a pit stop), and Kansas (11 Straight top 20 finishes with 4 top 10 in past 7 races). Overall I expect Menard to be a strong driver on the intermediate racetracks. I think he will be a force early on at tracks like Atlanta, Las Vegas, Texas, Charlotte, Kansas,etc. He is known to be a quick starter, but typically falls off as the season progresses. I don't think 2016 will any different either!
Shorter flats are probably his next strongest type racetrack after the intermediates. Last season on the shorter flats (Phoenix and New Hampshire), he compiled 16.8 average finish, 21.0 average start, 16.5 average running position and 77.4 driver rating. At Phoenix, he finished 13th and 14th last season. Prior to that, he had finishes of 23rd in both races in 2014. Overall, he have finished inside the top 20 in 5 of the past 7 races at Phoenix. I would expect him to finish inside the top 12th to 20th range at Phoenix range probably. He been a little better at New Hampshire overall I would say. Over the past 4 races t Phoenix, he have compiled 18.5 average finish, 21.8 average start, 18.3 average running position and 71.7 driver rating. In those 4 races, he really only had one bad finish and that was 25th last July. He was better than that in the race though. He probably had a teen car and would have finished there, if the race played out differently for him. His other three races over the past two seasons? He have compiled 16.3 average finish, 19.7 average start, 17.3 average running position and 75.2 driver rating. In those 3 races, he have finishes of 15th, 15th and 19th. Overall, he have finished 7 of the past 9 New Hampshire races inside the top 20. Including 5 of the past 8 have ended in 17th or better. 3 of those races ended inside the top 15. His best result? 12th back in 2012. I would expect a finish between 12th and 17th at New Hampshire.
Larger Flats should be another decent type racetrack for Paul Menard. I think he may be a little bit stronger on the shorter flats, but still expect good results from him. Last season on the large flats (Indy and Pocono), he have compiled 18.7 average finish, 15.0 average start, 22.3 average running position and 72.5 driver rating. Pocono is probably considered one of Paul's worst tracks over the past few seasons. Over the past 4 races at Pocono, he have compiled 25.3 average finish, 21.5 average start, 24.3 average running position and 64.9 driver rating. You are probably thinking, ''So he sucks at Pocono?'' Oh but that far from the truth. He is actually a very strong driver at Pocono. Prior to finishing 11th last August, he had 5 straight finishes of 26th or worse. 4 of those finishes ended outside of the top 30. So why am I so positive about him at Pocono? I am glad you asked! Two things actually: 1) Every single of those races he finished poorly in, can be blamed on pure bad luck. Wrecks, blown tires, penalties,etc. 2) From June 2010 to August 2012 (6 races), he finished 16th or better in every race. Including finishes of 14th, 10th (2011) and 11th and 9th (2012). So in basic terms, he is either top 15 or bust at Pocono over his past 12 races overall. At Indy, he been much more consistent. Over the past 2 races at Indy, he have compiled 24.0 average finish, 20.0 average start, 26.0 average running position and 63.3 driver rating. He will largely be known for his Brickyard win, but what many don't remember how he won that race on fuel strategy. If that race was another lap or two, I was 100% certain that Jeff Gordon would have won that race. But since how have he done? Very well actually. 3 of his past 4 starts since his win, he have finished 12th, 14th and 14th. Fairly respectably in my opinion. Overall he have finished 14th or better in 5 of his past 6 races at Indy, dating back to the 2010 season with RPM. I expect him to contend for finishes from 11th to 15th mainly at the larger flats. Even though he may not get the finishes he deserve in the end.
Short tracks will likely be a up and down type track for him in 2016. I don't expect to perform poorly, but I don't expect him to blow us away either. Last season the shorts (Martinsville, Richmond, and Bristol), he compiled 19.0 average finish, 19.0 average start, 20.8 average running position and 68.0 driver rating. Last season at Martinsville, he had finishes of 23rd and 15th. Over the past 4 races at Martinsville, he have compiled 15.5 average finish, 18.5 average start, 19.0 average running position and 74.6 driver rating. Overall he have finished 5 of the past 7 races inside the top 20. Including 3 of the past 4 races ending inside the top 15. Very underrated at Martinsville and should be under the radar for those that like stealing fantasy value. His best short track is probably Bristol. Over the past 4 races at Bristol, he have compiled 16.3 average finish, 20.8 average start, 18.5 average running position and 73.9 driver rating. Over the past two seasons, he have two poor finishes (24th, 21st) and two solid finishes (11th, 9th). Overall he been very consistent at Bristol. He have finished 11th or better in 7 of the past 10 races at Bristol. Including 5 Top 10 finishes. In fact, he had 4 straight top 10 finishes in 2012 and 2013 seasons. He added another top 10 finish in August 2014. In simpler terms, he is either top 10 or nothing. He been at his worst at Richmond over the past two seasons, he have compiled 20.8 average finish, 15.0 average start, 21.0 average running position and 65.6 driver rating. He had finishes of 26th and 15th last season. Prior to that, he had finishes of 18th, 24th (2014) and 5th, 13th. Overall he have finished 5 of the past 8 races inside the top 18. 4 of those 5 top 20 finishes ended inside top 15. I would expect a finish between 13th and 20th realistically.
Plates tracks of Daytona and Talladega will probably be one of his best shots at victory in my opinion. He have done a great job in seasons past to run respectably. I think Menard is one of the most underrated plate racers in the field. Not only does he usually have the speed to run well, but he also understand how to use the draft to his advantage. In my opinion, he had the opportunity to learn from two solid plate racers of Clint Bowyer and Jeff Burton. I do believe he learned a lot from both of them. One of the reasons why he usually good for a few solid finishes at both Daytona and Talladega. He been better at Talladega than Daytona lately though. Not going to spend a lot of time on the plates, but I would expect him to run very well at both tracks. However he tend to be inconsistent. Most times, he should be good for a low teen to mid 20 finish. Commonly he will wreck out or finish near the top 5 though. More often than not, it doesn't seems to be the case.
Road Courses will be a place where Paul Menard is very underrated at. When we think road courses, he don't usually think about Menard. However he have been very respectably overall when looking at his numbers. Over the past two seasons at Sonoma, he have compiled 9.0 average finish, 20.5 average start, 18.0 average running position and 81.7 driver rating. He had finishes of 13th and 5th the past two seasons. He been pretty good for awhile though. He have 5 straight top 20 finishes at Sonoma. Including 3 straight top 14 finishes over the past three seasons. He been a bit more inconsistent at Watkin Glenn. Over the past two seasons at WGI, he have compiled 22.5 average finish, 24.0 average start, 30.0 average running position and 52.2 driver rating. Misleading stats right there. He finished 13th in last season's event. In 2014? He finished 32nd, after finishing 3 laps off the pace. Prior to those two finishes? He had 4 of the previous 6 races inside the top 19. Including finishes of 12th, 16th and 17th. Overall, he have finished 3 of the his 5 career races with RCR inside the top 17. He should be good for a teen finish at both road courses, if all goes according to plan for him.
Let wrap up this preview, Paul Menard is one of the most underrated drivers in the series and will contend for mainly teen-like finishes. He is quick starter to the season, so make sure you jump on that value early and often. Because there is a very good chance that he won't have that same type of production late in the season. I think the window of fantasy production is larger than it was 2 or 3 seasons ago, but I also believe his volume of production will tamper off more. In simpler terms, I don't believe he will see same level of quality top 5 and top 10 finishes like we saw in the past. Even though he will be more consistent for a longer period of time. If you want to max out his fantasy value, then make sure you use him on the intermediate tracks early in the season. It seems to be a common trend in recent seasons that Menard perform his best on these venues as the season is fresh. It will be interesting to see if recent trends hold true, or if we will see a different Menard in 2016.
Twitter - @JeffNathans
