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Denny Hamlin enters the 2016 season as the underdog in the JGR stable. Hamlin probably have the most to prove and more importantly he have the most to gain. He didn't have a bad 2015 season, but he didn't exactly set the world on fire. Of course it hard to look impressive when one teammate won 5+ races and the other won the championship. In 2016, I expect Hamlin to be the weak link once again. Even though he clearly not a weak link by any means. I just view him as the one driver in the JGR stable that is overlooked because of who he is teammates with. However I am sure many drivers would love to be the weak link at JGR.
The shorter tracks will likely once again be a strong spot for Hamlin! He always been a great short track racers and his numbers are pretty impressive throughout his career. Last season he was pretty strong and showed why he should be still considered elite at these venues. In 6 races on the short tracks, he supported 10.2 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. He will likely be at his best at Martinsville. I consider this as his best racetrack on the schedule. His recent numbers alone are good enough to make him a top fantasy option. Over the previous 4 races at Martinsville, he have supported 7.8 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 107.2 driver rating. He won at Martinsville last spring and finished 3rd in the fall race. Overall, he have finished inside the top 6 in 15 of the past 18 races at Martinsville. Including 9 Top 3 finishes and 5 of those 9 races ending in wins since the 2006 season. He used to be pretty strong at Richmond. But he have fallen off in recent seasons though. Over the previous three seasons (6 races), he have finished 18th or worse in 5 of 6 races. His lone top 15 finish was last summer where he finished 6th. He finished 21st or 22nd in 4 straight races prior to finishing 6th last September. Last season at Richmond, he supported 14.0 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 92.9 driver rating. He was pretty damn stout last September at Richmond. He started all the way in 25th, but had 6.0 average running position and 114.1 driver rating. He probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car in that race. Nobody had anything for Kenseth that night though. Bristol been a pretty inconsistent track for Hamlin throughout his career. Over the previous 6 races at Bristol, Hamlin have supported 21.0 average finish with 14.3 average running positon and 88.8 driver rating. He have performed fairly solidly overall in the past three seasons. I think JGR solid short track program helps, but I think Hamlin just lacks the finishes. When he can finish on the lead lap, he usually good for a pretty strong finish. His last three lead lap finishes have looked like this: 3rd, 6th and 1st.
At short flats racetracks, He been pretty strong at both New Hampshire and Phoenix. Both been very good tracks for Hamlin throughout his career. Last season on the short flat racetracks (4 races), he supported 11.8 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 92.0 driver rating. I consider Hamlin to be better at New Hampshire than Phoenix, even though he been pretty good at both venues. At New Hampshire, he have found more success recently. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 15.3 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 104.7 driver rating. He have finished 4 of the past 5 races inside the top 14. 2 of those races have ended inside the top 10. His lone bad finish was 37th in 2014. Overall he have finished 8 of the past 11 races inside the top 14. 5 of those 8 top 14 finishes have ended inside the top 3. Including an 2nd place finish last September. At Phoenix in recent seasons, he been just as good probably. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 13.8 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 82.2 driver rating. He only have 2 top 10 finishes in those 4 races, but they came have came in the past two November races. Overall at Phoenix, he have finished 5 of the past 8 Phoenix inside the top 8.
I still consider Denny Hamlin a flat track master as he is one of the most well-rounded drivers on the flats. He is just as strong on the large flat racetracks as the shorter flat racetracks. Last season at the large flats (3 races), he supported 12.3 average finish with 9.7 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. He better at Pocono than Indy, even though he been pretty solid at both racetracks throughout his career. Last season he finished 22nd and 10th at Pocono. Prior to that in 2014, he had finishes of 9th and 4th. Overall 5 of the past 8 races at Pocono have ended inside the top 10. Last season at Pocono, he supported 16.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 97.4 driver rating. He was pretty strong in the second Pocono race, but was tagged with a misleading 22nd-place finish. He been pretty stout at Indy over the past few seasons. Over the previous two seasons, he have posted finishes of 3rd and 5th. He started off his career kind of rough, but recently have turned it on at Indy. He have managed 6 Top 10 finishes in 10 starts. He have posted 3 top 6 finishes in his past 4 races dating back to the 2012 season. Over the past two seasons at Indy, he have supported 4.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. He finished 5th last season!
The intermediate racetracks are a major strength for Joe Gibbs Racing, and Hamlin should be considered a strong threat any time he is on the racetrack. Last season he was rock solid, even though he started off a bit rocky at the intermediate racetracks. In 17 races, he supported 14.5 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 97.0 driver rating. His best intermediate racetracks are probably the ones with the worn-out surfaces. Like Darlington, Homestead, etc. The racetracks I would recommend using him at would be Darlington (best racetrack), Homestead, Texas, Charlotte and probably Michigan. Darlington is his best racetrack. He have managed 8 Top 10s and 5 top 5s in only 10 starts. He finished 3rd last season at this venue. Among tracks we visit twice (2 times) per season, I would say Texas or Charlotte is considered his best racetrack. I would go with Texas since have won there twice. He more inconsistent at Texas over the past few season though. Las Vegas and Homestead are also other intermediate racetracks that he have historically performed well at throughout course of his career.
Restrictor Plates will be a very strong type of racetrack for Denny Hamlin and the 11 team. He been nearly unstoppable the past few seasons at Daytona. Okay not unstoppable. But you know what I mean. Over the previous 4 races at Daytona, he have supported 3.8 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. Realistically speaking, Hamlin arguably been the best driver at Daytona. Him and Dale Jr are probably pretty much dead even been looking at the numbers. He have not been so lucky at Talladega though. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 16.3 average finish with 17.3 average running position and 92.1 driver rating. He been better in the spring race ( 1st and 9th) than the fall race (18th and 37th) the previous two seasons. His last top 10 finish in the fall race at Talladega? All the way back in 2011. Hamlin have suddenly turned into one of the best plate racers in the series since start of the 2014 season. Believe it or not, it not always been like that. He always been decent, but these past two seasons been a pretty mild improvement in production and performance.
Road Courses are clearly his weak spot and been for numbers of years already. He actually started off his career pretty well at both venues. Yeah I know (shocker right there), but since he been pretty average at best. At Sonoma, he started off his career with 3 Top 12 finishes (including 2 top 10s) in his first 4 starts. Since? 6 Straight finishes of 18th or worse. 5 of 6 races ending in 23rd or worse. Including 3 straight finishes outside of the top 30 from 2010 to 2012. At Watkins Glenn, he started off his career very strong! In his first four races from 2006 to 2009 (4 races), he posted 4 straight top 10 finishes. Including his best road course of his career in 2007 where he finished 2nd. Promising, right? Wrong! Since start of the 2010 season, his best finish is 19th and that was in 2013. 5 of the 6 race since the 2010 season have ended in 24th or worse. Including 3 straight finishes outside of the top 30 from 2010 to 2012. Something had to happen to him between 2009 to 2010 that made him so bad on the road courses. But I don't recall what happened though. If anything even happened. But he took a major decline in production and performance.
Twitter - @MattAleza
Denny Hamlin enters the 2016 season as the underdog in the JGR stable. Hamlin probably have the most to prove and more importantly he have the most to gain. He didn't have a bad 2015 season, but he didn't exactly set the world on fire. Of course it hard to look impressive when one teammate won 5+ races and the other won the championship. In 2016, I expect Hamlin to be the weak link once again. Even though he clearly not a weak link by any means. I just view him as the one driver in the JGR stable that is overlooked because of who he is teammates with. However I am sure many drivers would love to be the weak link at JGR.
The shorter tracks will likely once again be a strong spot for Hamlin! He always been a great short track racers and his numbers are pretty impressive throughout his career. Last season he was pretty strong and showed why he should be still considered elite at these venues. In 6 races on the short tracks, he supported 10.2 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. He will likely be at his best at Martinsville. I consider this as his best racetrack on the schedule. His recent numbers alone are good enough to make him a top fantasy option. Over the previous 4 races at Martinsville, he have supported 7.8 average finish with 9.5 average running position and 107.2 driver rating. He won at Martinsville last spring and finished 3rd in the fall race. Overall, he have finished inside the top 6 in 15 of the past 18 races at Martinsville. Including 9 Top 3 finishes and 5 of those 9 races ending in wins since the 2006 season. He used to be pretty strong at Richmond. But he have fallen off in recent seasons though. Over the previous three seasons (6 races), he have finished 18th or worse in 5 of 6 races. His lone top 15 finish was last summer where he finished 6th. He finished 21st or 22nd in 4 straight races prior to finishing 6th last September. Last season at Richmond, he supported 14.0 average finish with 12.5 average running position and 92.9 driver rating. He was pretty damn stout last September at Richmond. He started all the way in 25th, but had 6.0 average running position and 114.1 driver rating. He probably had the 2nd or 3rd best car in that race. Nobody had anything for Kenseth that night though. Bristol been a pretty inconsistent track for Hamlin throughout his career. Over the previous 6 races at Bristol, Hamlin have supported 21.0 average finish with 14.3 average running positon and 88.8 driver rating. He have performed fairly solidly overall in the past three seasons. I think JGR solid short track program helps, but I think Hamlin just lacks the finishes. When he can finish on the lead lap, he usually good for a pretty strong finish. His last three lead lap finishes have looked like this: 3rd, 6th and 1st.
At short flats racetracks, He been pretty strong at both New Hampshire and Phoenix. Both been very good tracks for Hamlin throughout his career. Last season on the short flat racetracks (4 races), he supported 11.8 average finish with 13.0 average running position and 92.0 driver rating. I consider Hamlin to be better at New Hampshire than Phoenix, even though he been pretty good at both venues. At New Hampshire, he have found more success recently. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 15.3 average finish with 13.3 average running position and 104.7 driver rating. He have finished 4 of the past 5 races inside the top 14. 2 of those races have ended inside the top 10. His lone bad finish was 37th in 2014. Overall he have finished 8 of the past 11 races inside the top 14. 5 of those 8 top 14 finishes have ended inside the top 3. Including an 2nd place finish last September. At Phoenix in recent seasons, he been just as good probably. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 13.8 average finish with 15.3 average running position and 82.2 driver rating. He only have 2 top 10 finishes in those 4 races, but they came have came in the past two November races. Overall at Phoenix, he have finished 5 of the past 8 Phoenix inside the top 8.
I still consider Denny Hamlin a flat track master as he is one of the most well-rounded drivers on the flats. He is just as strong on the large flat racetracks as the shorter flat racetracks. Last season at the large flats (3 races), he supported 12.3 average finish with 9.7 average running position and 97.3 driver rating. He better at Pocono than Indy, even though he been pretty solid at both racetracks throughout his career. Last season he finished 22nd and 10th at Pocono. Prior to that in 2014, he had finishes of 9th and 4th. Overall 5 of the past 8 races at Pocono have ended inside the top 10. Last season at Pocono, he supported 16.0 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 97.4 driver rating. He was pretty strong in the second Pocono race, but was tagged with a misleading 22nd-place finish. He been pretty stout at Indy over the past few seasons. Over the previous two seasons, he have posted finishes of 3rd and 5th. He started off his career kind of rough, but recently have turned it on at Indy. He have managed 6 Top 10 finishes in 10 starts. He have posted 3 top 6 finishes in his past 4 races dating back to the 2012 season. Over the past two seasons at Indy, he have supported 4.0 average finish with 11.0 average running position and 103.2 driver rating. He finished 5th last season!
The intermediate racetracks are a major strength for Joe Gibbs Racing, and Hamlin should be considered a strong threat any time he is on the racetrack. Last season he was rock solid, even though he started off a bit rocky at the intermediate racetracks. In 17 races, he supported 14.5 average finish with 12.8 average running position and 97.0 driver rating. His best intermediate racetracks are probably the ones with the worn-out surfaces. Like Darlington, Homestead, etc. The racetracks I would recommend using him at would be Darlington (best racetrack), Homestead, Texas, Charlotte and probably Michigan. Darlington is his best racetrack. He have managed 8 Top 10s and 5 top 5s in only 10 starts. He finished 3rd last season at this venue. Among tracks we visit twice (2 times) per season, I would say Texas or Charlotte is considered his best racetrack. I would go with Texas since have won there twice. He more inconsistent at Texas over the past few season though. Las Vegas and Homestead are also other intermediate racetracks that he have historically performed well at throughout course of his career.
Restrictor Plates will be a very strong type of racetrack for Denny Hamlin and the 11 team. He been nearly unstoppable the past few seasons at Daytona. Okay not unstoppable. But you know what I mean. Over the previous 4 races at Daytona, he have supported 3.8 average finish with 9.0 average running position and 107.3 driver rating. Realistically speaking, Hamlin arguably been the best driver at Daytona. Him and Dale Jr are probably pretty much dead even been looking at the numbers. He have not been so lucky at Talladega though. Over the previous two seasons, he have supported 16.3 average finish with 17.3 average running position and 92.1 driver rating. He been better in the spring race ( 1st and 9th) than the fall race (18th and 37th) the previous two seasons. His last top 10 finish in the fall race at Talladega? All the way back in 2011. Hamlin have suddenly turned into one of the best plate racers in the series since start of the 2014 season. Believe it or not, it not always been like that. He always been decent, but these past two seasons been a pretty mild improvement in production and performance.
Road Courses are clearly his weak spot and been for numbers of years already. He actually started off his career pretty well at both venues. Yeah I know (shocker right there), but since he been pretty average at best. At Sonoma, he started off his career with 3 Top 12 finishes (including 2 top 10s) in his first 4 starts. Since? 6 Straight finishes of 18th or worse. 5 of 6 races ending in 23rd or worse. Including 3 straight finishes outside of the top 30 from 2010 to 2012. At Watkins Glenn, he started off his career very strong! In his first four races from 2006 to 2009 (4 races), he posted 4 straight top 10 finishes. Including his best road course of his career in 2007 where he finished 2nd. Promising, right? Wrong! Since start of the 2010 season, his best finish is 19th and that was in 2013. 5 of the 6 race since the 2010 season have ended in 24th or worse. Including 3 straight finishes outside of the top 30 from 2010 to 2012. Something had to happen to him between 2009 to 2010 that made him so bad on the road courses. But I don't recall what happened though. If anything even happened. But he took a major decline in production and performance.
Twitter - @MattAleza
